communicating uncertain risks: models and methods
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Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods. Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS Shenzhen, BGI , 1 st Sigenet Workshop. “…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.” Dorothy L. Sayers. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS
Shenzhen, BGI , 1st Sigenet Workshop
Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods
“…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.”
Dorothy L. Sayers
Overview
Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
Overview
Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
Risk
Risk is Everywhere
The risk concept could beapplied to everything.”M. PowerThe Risk Management of Everything. Rethinking the politics of uncertainty. London: Demos 2004
Risk is Everywhere Living close to a power
station Working in a chemical plant Skiing Buying shares Sun bathing Playing golf Being (un)married
Components of the Risk Concept Effect: Cause-effect relationship Loss: Negative relevance of the effect Uncertainty: Probability of the loss Level of evidence: Knowledge about these components
Uncertain Risks Is there a risk? How large is the risk?
Uncertainty is business as usualIARC Classification of potential carcinogenic substances
Peter Wiedemann
How big is the risk?
Source: WHO (2007) : Extremely Low Frequency Fields Environmental Health Criteria Monograph No.23
Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
Risk Communication
Interactive exchange of information about health or environmental risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups, and the general public.
WHO 2004, IPCS Risk Assessment Terminology
Risk Communication
Purpose of RC RC is needed for informed decision making and
informed judgements about health impacts
RC Examples What does a positive mammography screening test
indicate? How probable is it to get breast cancer if I have a BRCA
1 mutation? Are cell phone safe for children?
Ingredients of Good RC Reliable & valid data Over all picture (don´t lose the sight of the wood for
the trees) Good reporting (transparency, clarity, reasonableness,
unbiased information processing) Credibility
Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue
Hurdles and Barriers Complexity Inquisitorial science system in an adversarial societal
context Mis-attribution of uncertainty Biased assimilation / confirmation bias
Informing about Hazard-related Uncertainty
Overview
Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Challenges Models and Methods Epilogue
Various Models Risk perception Risk communication Dialogue theories Persuasion theories Social marketing Theories of information processing
Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information
processingDecisioncriteria
Message
Highlevel Central Careful,
analyticQuality of argument
s
Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,
intuitivePersuasiv
e cues
Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change
Evidence Maps CORA
Evidence Maps EM are tools for synthesizing reporting evidence
Process structure Reporting structure
Evidence AssessmentEvidence Maps
Visualization of basic facts
• Evidence base
• Pro and con-arguments
• Conclusion
• Uncertainty
Evidence Map - Elements
Pro-Argument:
< ... >
Evidence Basis:• <Number of studies>
Contra-Argument:
< ... >
Conclusion:
< ... >
supporting< ...>
Remaining Uncertainties
< ... >
attenuating < ... >
supporting< ...>
attenuating < ... >
Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information
processingDecisioncriteria
Message
Highlevel Central Careful,
analyticQuality of argument
s
Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,
intuitivePersuasiv
e cues
Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change
Framework for communicating risk assessment reports (CORA)
CORA
Competency
Integrity
Quality assurance
Transparency
Stakeholder involvement
More Information
EpilogueThe future is not yet know
James Lind Alliance
Future project: Reporting evidence including uncertainties of Omics based tests and therapies
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