communicating in an uncertain future
DESCRIPTION
In this engaging presentation to the Senior Communicators Council of the International Association of Business Communicators' DC Metro chapter, Eric Meade introduced scenarios as a way of thinking about future uncertainties. He then presented a set of scenarios of technology and society in the year 2030 that he had recently developed with colleagues at the nonprofit Institute for Alternative Futures. Eric explored with participants the implications of each scenario for business communicators. The 2030 scenarios include: -An expectable future: big data and social networks combine to create high-quality knowledge technologies, but leaders fail to use them to address the grand challenges of the 21st century. -A challenging future: a small number of powerful entities create and control advanced analytics that turn information into knowledge, but most people lack access to these sophisticated tools for sense-making in a complex world. -A visionary future: leaders create a highly integrated global brain that is accessible to all, combining advanced analytics and human expertise to generate knowledge and wisdom. -A surprisingly successful future where rising unemployment and generational transition undermine hierarchical organizations that are unable to reinvent themselves as semi-autonomous networks.TRANSCRIPT
Eric Meadewww.ericmeade.com
[email protected] DC Chapter
April 23, 2014
COMMUNICATING IN AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
A COUPLE QUESTIONS
• What do you already know about communicating in the future?
• What three questions about communicating in the future would you love to have answered today?
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
LINEAR
OUR IDEAS ABOUT CHANGE HAVE EVOLVED
S-CURVE
OUR IDEAS ABOUT CHANGE HAVE EVOLVED
COMPLEX
Rational mind
Intuitive mind
OUR IDEAS ABOUT CHANGE HAVE EVOLVED
2-5 years
5-20 yearsWhat our “rational minds” think may only be plausible within:
May actually occur in only:
THE CONSEQUENCES?
• Alternative stories about the future• They bound uncertainty and explore major
pathways, some of which go beyond current expectations
• Their value to the:
Rational Mind Intuitive Mind
• Understand changes already underway
• Consider alternative outcomes
• Clarify assumptions so they can be tested
• Confound the rational mind to make room for the intuitive mind
• Relax assumptions• Provide a context
for developing a vision
SCENARIOS: WHAT AND WHY?
This is the Aspirational Futures method developed by the Institute for Alternative Futures.
There are other methods for getting into this intuitive space.
• Always!!!• Specific situations:
– An organization is unprepared.– An organization is vulnerable.– A new leader arrives.– The old business model doesn’t work anymore.– Energy and morale are low.– An organization is starting to feel stale or
irrelevant.
WHEN IS THE FUTURE RELEVANT?
FOUR SCENARIOS ON TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY• Smart
Technologies, Missed Opportunities
• Info, Info Everywhere (and not a drop to drink)
• An Integrated Knowledge Network
• Distributed Talent for Good
SCENARIO 1
SMART TECHNOLOGIES, MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
SCENARIO 1
SMART TECHNOLOGIES, MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
SCENARIO 1
SMART TECHNOLOGIES, MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
IN THIS SCENARIO…
• What is the role of the business communicator?• What skills and aptitudes are most important for
the business communicator to have?
SCENARIO 2
INFO, INFO EVERYWHERE(AND NOT A DROP TO DRINK)
SCENARIO 2
INFO, INFO EVERYWHERE(AND NOT A DROP TO DRINK)
SCENARIO 2
INFO, INFO EVERYWHERE(AND NOT A DROP TO DRINK)
IN THIS SCENARIO…
• What is the role of the business communicator?• What skills and aptitudes are most important for
the business communicator to have?
SCENARIO 3
AN INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE NETWORK
SCENARIO 3
AN INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE NETWORK
SCENARIO 3
AN INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE NETWORK
IN THIS SCENARIO…
• What is the role of the business communicator?• What skills and aptitudes are most important for
the business communicator to have?
SCENARIO 4
DISTRIBUTED TALENT FOR GOOD
SCENARIO 4
DISTRIBUTED TALENT FOR GOOD
SCENARIO 4
DISTRIBUTED TALENT FOR GOOD
IN THIS SCENARIO…
• What is the role of the business communicator?• What skills and aptitudes are most important for
the business communicator to have?
For the IEEE scenarios:http://www.ieee.org/about/research/world_scenarios_of_2030.pdfFor more about me:http://[email protected]
THANK YOU!