common concerns
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em Power
empower ing you to succeed
Common Concerns of
Investors regarding Equity Investment
Safe ?
Secure?
Risk ?
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
Common Concerns of
Investors regarding Equity Investment
Common Concerns of
Investors regarding Equity Investment
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
My Bank FD is giving me 9% (Guaranteed),Why should I invest in equity?
Equity Markets are RISKY,
I want FirstSafety
Concern 1
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
What Is The Meaning Of Safety?
PRESERVING THE
CAPITAL
OR
PRESERVING
THE PURCHASING
POWER
Key Objective of Investing :
Enhancing Purchasing PowerOver FY 1979–2013 CPI inflation has been 8.6%, eroding
purchasing power of Rupee by 94%
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
(MOFSL), Bloomberg, Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC) Internal Analysis.
Data as on 31st October, 2013.
1
Inflation erodes purchasing power of money
CPI = Consumer Price Index
Inflation erodes purchasing power of money
CPI = Consumer Price Index
Real Life Example
Key Objective of Investing :
Enhancing Purchasing Power
2
No
min
al V
alu
e
Source: Bloomberg, MOAMC Internal Analysis. Data as on 31st October, 2013.
Current Value CAGR(%) Times
Sensex (Cum div.) 35420 18.55% 354.20
Sensex 21165 16.79% 211.65
Gold 4085 11.35% 40.85
Fixed Deposit 1619 8.41% 16.19
Key Objective of Investing :
Enhancing Purchasing PowerEquities significantly enhance purchasing power of portfolios
Inflation-adjusted returns of different assets
Pu
rch
asi
ng
Po
wer
Source: Bloomberg, MOAMC Internal Analysis. Data as on 31st October, 2013.
Reality VS IllationNormally House hold expense gets double at every 5 years due
to CPI and lifestyle inflation.
Biggest Risk in Equity market “Not investing into it”
3*9% interest is assumed in Bank FD
Today After 15 years
25,000 Rs.2,00,000,
25,000 Rs.91062*
House Hold Expenses
FD
You think you are safe, but you are not: Ostrich Mentality
Current Value CAGR(%) Times
Sensex (Cum div.) 2175 9.34% 21.75
Sensex 1300 7.72% 13.00
Gold 251 2.70% 2.51
Fixed Deposit 99 -0.03% 0.99
4
Concern 2
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
Let The Market Correct
Then I Will Enter
5
Time Is More Important
Total Investment
Wealth At age 65
100000
10100000
20100000
30100000
40100000
50100000
60100000
Mr. SharmaMr. Mehta
3500002000000
52572371
42957119
Total Investment
Wealth At age 65
Wealth At age 65* 52572371 42957119
Investment Started at Age
Annual Investment
Investment con�nued �ll Age
Investment Held �ll age
Mr. Sharma Mr. MehtaName
Total Investment
19
50000
25
65
350000
26
50000
65
65
2000000
GREAT MOMENTS IN SCIENCE:
EINSTEIN DISCOVERS THAT TIME IS ACTUALL MONEY.
6
Effect Of Compounding Vs. Time
Value of Investment: 15000/- Per month
No of YearsSavings A/c Bank FD Equity Mutual Fund
10
15
20
25
30
2
5
4% 9% 12% 15% 18%
3,75,390
9,97,800
22,16,110
37,03,662
55,19,958
77,37,650
1,04,45,444
3,95,773
11,39,847
29,24,485
57,18,657
1,00,93,440
1,69,42,955
2,76,67,111
4,08,648
12,37,295
34,85,086
75,68,640
1,49,87,219
2,84,64,526
5,29,48,707
4,22,032
13,45,225
41,79,859
1,01,52,946
2,27,39,325
4,92,61,106
10,51,47,309
4,35,945
14,64,868
50,43,863
1,37,88,133
3,51,52,308
8,73,49,682
21,48,79,338
Savings and Bank FD return is assumed at 4% and 9% respec�vely. For Equity MF various assumed return scenario.
More Time = More Wealth
It’s Not It’s Timing Time Into The Market Which Is More Important.
Historically, those who stayed invested with their invested have made big fortunes.
7
Behavior Gap
People who constantly try to time the market end up getting
lesser return than the actual asset class performance
Major returns in equity market is delivered in few days.
By constantly trying to time the market, chances of losing those few days are very high.
“World is waiting for market to crash, market is waiting for your passion to crash.”
Risk Of Missing Few Best Days
Valua�on 14th July 2014 100000 invested 10 years as on of Rs for
ProductCurrent Value
Impact of Best Days missed
2 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days
412,801 337,181 251,906 149,353 95,781 65,713
611,452 512,141 388,639 251,137 173,938 125,811
570,762 466,110 357,449 235,689 168,631 125,659
Sensex
Birla Sun Life Equity Fund
DSP BlackRock Opportuni�es Fund
HDFC Equity Fund
524,199
769,417
646,632
875,144 768,618 645,569 498,366 324,265 230,057 168,017
8
What if you missed BEST days?
524,199
412,801337,181
251,906
149,353 95,781 65,71350,000
250,000
450,000
650,000
850,000
Current Value
2 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days
Sensex
Birla Sun Life Equity Fund
646,632
570,762
466,110
357,449
235,689168,631
125,659
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
Current Value
2 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days
DSP BlackRock Opportuni�es Fund
875,144
768,618
645,569
498,366
324,265
230,057168,017
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
Current Value
2 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days
HDFC Equity Fund
769,417
611,452
512,141
388,639
251,137173,938
125,811
50,000
250,000
450,000
650,000
850,000
Current Value
2 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 40 days
Value of Rs 1,00,000
invested before
10 years*
Value of Rs 1,00,000
invested before
10 years*
Value of Rs 1,00,000
invested before
10 years*
Value of Rs 1,00,000
invested before
10 years*
9
10
Concern 3
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
Let The More Clarity Come,
Then I Will Invest
“WALL OF WORRY”
11
Market Doesn’t Wait For Clarity
Market always reacts in advance.
It goes up or down before the actual event takes place.
Waiting for the clarity may result in paying the premium and lesser returns.
So when odds are in favor of investment, don’t wait for the exact clarity.
People who were waiting for election to get over have missed the rally of 6000 points in Sensex.
Cost Of Clarity
Period
2013: Sept
2013: Dec
2014: March
2014: April
2014: Early may
2014: May
Market Indicator
Modi appointed as BJP's PM Candidate
BJP wins assembly elec�on of 4 states
Opinion polls accord majority to NDA
Heavy Campaigning by Modi
Exit Polls gives NDA majority
BJP alone gets majority
Wall of Worry
But there is infigh�ng within BJP
But these are only Hindi heartlands
But opinion polls were wrong in 2004 & 2009
But polariza�on of votes will happen
But exit polls always underes�mates Congress
But BJP does not have majority in upper house
Sensex
19733
21326
21920
22702
23551
24122
12
13
Concern 4
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
I don’t want to invest as the last 3 years returns are not good.Every time I invest in Equity Fund looking at
performance, but after my investments scheme
performance deteriorates.
14
• E
PS
for
FY 1
4 is
ass
um
ed.
• E
PS
for
FY 1
5 is
th
e as
sum
ed E
PS
for
the
year
• Se
nse
x is
tak
en a
s o
n p
ar�
cula
r d
ay
(i.e
last
day
of
Dec
emb
er o
f ea
ch c
alen
dar
yea
r.•
EPS
is t
aken
fo
r th
e re
spec
�ve
fin
anci
al y
ear.
Dat
eB
SE
Se
nse
x (a
s o
n
De
c 3
1)
EP
S fo
r fi
nan
cial
year
PE
(b
ase
d
on
EP
S
for
FY)
1 y
ear
2 y
ear
3 y
ear
s4
ye
ars
5 y
ear
s6
ye
ars
7 y
ear
s8
ye
ars
9 y
ear
s1
0 y
ear
s1
2 y
ear
s1
5 y
ear
s
24-
Dec
-93
33
46
12
92
5.9
4
23-
Dec
-94
39
27
18
12
1.7
01
7.3
6%
22-
Dec
-95
31
10
25
01
2.4
4-2
0.7
9%
-3.5
8%
24-
Dec
-96
30
85
26
61
1.6
0-0
.81
%-1
1.3
6%
-2.6
7%
31-
Dec
-97
36
59
29
11
2.5
71
8.6
0%
8.4
6%
-2.3
3%
2.2
6%
31-
Dec
-98
30
55
27
81
0.9
9-1
6.5
0%
-0.4
8%
-0.5
9%
-6.0
8%
-1.8
0%
30-
Dec
-99
50
06
28
01
7.8
86
3.8
3%
16
.97
%1
7.5
1%
12
.63
%4
.97
%6
.94
%
29-
Dec
-00
39
72
21
61
8.3
9-2
0.6
5%
14
.02
%2
.77
%6
.52
%5
.01
%0
.19
%2
.48
%
31-
Dec
-01
32
62
23
61
3.8
2-1
7.8
7%
-19
.27
%2
.21
%-2
.83
%1
.12
%0
.80
%-2
.61
%-0
.32
%
31-
Dec
-02
33
77
27
21
2.4
23
.52
%-7
.79
%-1
2.2
9%
2.5
4%
-1.5
9%
1.5
2%
1.1
8%
-1.8
7%
0.1
0%
31-
Dec
-03
58
39
34
81
6.7
87
2.8
9%
33
.78
%1
3.7
0%
3.9
2%
13
.83
%8
.10
%9
.54
%8
.19
%4
.51
%5
.73
%
31-
Dec
-04
66
03
45
01
4.6
71
3.0
8%
39
.82
%2
6.4
9%
13
.55
%5
.69
%1
3.7
0%
8.8
0%
9.9
8%
8.7
2%
5.3
3%
30-
Dec
-05
93
98
52
31
7.9
74
2.3
3%
26
.87
%4
0.6
5%
30
.28
%1
8.8
0%
11
.07
%1
7.4
1%
12
.51
%1
3.1
7%
11
.69
%8
.99
%
29-
Dec
-06
13
78
77
18
19
.20
46
.70
%4
4.5
0%
33
.16
%4
2.1
4%
33
.41
%2
3.0
5%
15
.57
%2
0.7
3%
15
.88
%1
6.1
5%
11
.03
%
31-
Dec
-07
20
28
78
33
24
.35
47
.15
%2
1.3
0%
29
.24
%3
6.5
3%
43
.13
%3
5.6
1%
26
.23
%1
9.1
2%
23
.41
%1
8.6
8%
16
.91
%
31-
Dec
-08
96
47
82
01
1.7
7-5
2.4
5%
-31
.04
%-1
1.2
2%
9.9
4%
10
.56
%1
9.1
2%
16
.75
%1
1.7
3%
7.5
6%
12
.18
%9
.97
%7
.31
%
31-
Dec
-09
17
46
58
30
21
.04
81
.03
%-7
.22
%-4
.87
%1
6.7
6%
21
.48
%2
0.0
3%
26
.46
%2
3.3
3%
17
.89
%1
3.3
1%
13
.91
%1
0.4
6%
31-
Dec
-10
20
50
91
06
01
9.3
51
7.4
3%
45
.80
%0
.36
%1
0.4
4%
16
.89
%2
0.7
9%
19
.66
%2
5.2
9%
22
.66
%1
7.8
4%
17
.19
%1
3.4
0%
30-
Dec
-11
15
45
51
14
01
3.5
6-2
4.6
4%
-5.9
3%
17
.01
%-6
.58
%2
.31
%8
.64
%1
2.9
2%
12
.94
%1
8.4
1%
16
.83
%9
.85
%1
1.3
4%
31-
Dec
-12
19
42
71
19
61
6.2
42
5.7
0%
-2.6
7%
3.6
1%
19
.12
%-0
.86
%5
.88
%1
0.9
3%
14
.44
%1
4.2
9%
19
.12
%1
4.1
4%
11
.77
%
31-
Dec
-13
21
11
71
32
61
59
38
.70
%1
6.8
9%
0.9
8%
4.8
6%
16
.96
%0
.67
%6
.28
%1
0.6
5%
13
.79
%1
3.7
2%
16
.84
%1
3.7
6%
19-
No
v-1
42
80
32
15
42
18
.32
Min
-52
.45
%-3
1.0
4%
-12
.29
%-6
.58
%-1
.80
%0
.19
%-2
.61
%-1
.87
%0
.10
%5
.33
%8
.99
%7
.31
%
Max
81
.03
%4
5.8
0%
40
.65
%4
2.1
4%
43
.13
%3
5.6
1%
26
.46
%2
5.2
9%
23
.41
%1
9.1
2%
17
.19
%1
3.7
6%
Ave
rage
15
.23
%9
.42
%8
.54
%1
1.5
3%
11
.87
%1
1.7
4%
12
.26
%1
2.8
3%
13
.37
%1
3.6
9%
13
.20
%1
1.3
4%
His
tori
cal R
etu
rns
15
His
tori
cal R
etu
rns
• E
PS
for
FY 1
4 is
ass
um
ed.
• E
PS
for
FY 1
5 is
th
e as
sum
ed E
PS
for
the
year
• Se
nse
x is
tak
en a
s o
n p
ar�
cula
r d
ay
(i.e
last
day
of
Dec
emb
er o
f ea
ch c
alen
dar
yea
r.•
EPS
is t
aken
fo
r th
e re
spec
�ve
fin
anci
al y
ear.
Dat
e
BS
E
Sen
sex
(as
on
D
ec
31
)
EP
S fo
r fi
nan
cial
year
PE
(b
ase
d
on
EP
S
for
FY)
1 y
ear
2 y
ear
3 y
ear
s4
Ye
ars
5 y
ear
s6
ye
ars
7 y
ear
s8
ye
ars
9 y
ear
s1
0 y
ear
s1
2 y
ear
s1
5 y
ear
s
24-
Dec
-93
33
46
12
92
5.9
41
7.3
6%
-3.5
8%
-2.6
7%
2.2
6%
-1.8
0%
6.9
4%
2.4
8%
-0.3
2%
0.1
0%
5.7
3%
8.9
9%
7.3
1%
23-
Dec
-94
39
27
18
12
1.7
0-2
0.7
9%
-11
.36
%-2
.33
%-6
.08
%4
.97
%0
.19
%-2
.61
%-1
.87
%4
.51
%5
.33
%1
1.0
3%
10
.46
%
22-
Dec
-95
31
10
25
01
2.4
4-0
.81
%8
.46
%-0
.59
%1
2.6
3%
5.0
1%
0.8
0%
1.1
8%
8.1
9%
8.7
2%
11
.69
%1
6.9
1%
13
.40
%
24-
Dec
-96
30
85
26
61
1.6
01
8.6
0%
-0.4
8%
17
.51
%6
.52
%1
.12
%1
.52
%9
.54
%9
.98
%1
3.1
7%
16
.15
%9
.97
%1
1.3
4%
31-
Dec
-97
36
59
29
11
2.5
7-1
6.5
0%
16
.97
%2
.77
%-2
.83
%-1
.59
%8
.10
%8
.80
%1
2.5
1%
15
.88
%1
8.6
8%
13
.91
%1
1.7
7%
31-
Dec
-98
30
55
27
81
0.9
96
3.8
3%
14
.02
%2
.21
%2
.54
%1
3.8
3%
13
.70
%1
7.4
1%
20
.73
%2
3.4
1%
12
.18
%1
7.1
9%
13
.76
%
30-
Dec
-99
50
06
28
01
7.8
8-2
0.6
5%
-19
.27
%-1
2.2
9%
3.9
2%
5.6
9%
11
.07
%1
5.5
7%
19
.12
%7
.56
%1
3.3
1%
9.8
5%
29-
Dec
-00
39
72
21
61
8.3
9-1
7.8
7%
-7.7
9%
13
.70
%1
3.5
5%
18
.80
%2
3.0
5%
26
.23
%1
1.7
3%
17
.89
%1
7.8
4%
14
.14
%
31-
Dec
-01
32
62
23
61
3.8
23
.52
%3
3.7
8%
26
.49
%3
0.2
8%
33
.41
%3
5.6
1%
16
.75
%2
3.3
3%
22
.66
%1
6.8
3%
16
.84
%
31-
Dec
-02
33
77
27
21
2.4
27
2.8
9%
39
.82
%4
0.6
5%
42
.14
%4
3.1
3%
19
.12
%2
6.4
6%
25
.29
%1
8.4
1%
19
.12
%
31-
Dec
-03
58
39
34
81
6.7
81
3.0
8%
26
.87
%3
3.1
6%
36
.53
%1
0.5
6%
20
.03
%1
9.6
6%
12
.94
%1
4.2
9%
13
.72
%
31-
Dec
-04
66
03
45
01
4.6
74
2.3
3%
44
.50
%2
9.2
4%
9.9
4%
21
.48
%2
0.7
9%
12
.92
%1
4.4
4%
13
.79
%
30-
Dec
-05
93
98
52
31
7.9
74
6.7
0%
21
.30
%-1
1.2
2%
16
.76
%1
6.8
9%
8.6
4%
10
.93
%1
0.6
5%
29-
Dec
-06
13
78
77
18
19
.20
47
.15
%-3
1.0
4%
-4.8
7%
10
.44
%2
.31
%5
.88
%6
.28
%
31-
Dec
-07
20
28
78
33
24
.35
-52
.45
%-7
.22
%0
.36
%-6
.58
%-0
.86
%0
.67
%
31-
Dec
-08
96
47
82
01
1.7
78
1.0
3%
45
.80
%1
7.0
1%
19
.12
%1
6.9
6%
31-
Dec
-09
17
46
58
30
21
.04
17
.43
%-5
.93
%3
.61
%4
.86
%
31-
Dec
-10
20
50
91
06
01
9.3
5-2
4.6
4%
-2.6
7%
0.9
8%
30-
Dec
-11
15
45
51
14
01
3.5
62
5.7
0%
16
.89
%
31-
Dec
-12
19
42
71
19
61
6.2
48
.70
%
31-
Dec
-13
21
11
71
32
61
5.9
3
19-
No
v-1
42
80
32
15
42
18
.32
Min
-52
.45
%-3
1.0
4%
-12
.29
%-6
.58
%-1
.80
%0
.19
%-2
.61
%-1
.87
%0
.10
%5
.33
%8
.99
%7
.31
%
Max
81
.03
%4
5.8
0%
40
.65
%4
2.1
4%
43
.13
%3
5.6
1%
26
.46
%2
5.2
9%
23
.41
%1
9.1
2%
17
.19
%1
3.7
6%
Ave
rage
15
.23
%9
.42
%8
.54
%1
1.5
3%
11
.87
%1
1.7
4%
12
.26
%1
2.8
3%
13
.37
%1
3.6
9%
13
.20
%1
1.3
4%
17
Concern 5
Sentiments are not good,
just look at the NEWS.
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
1218
Don’t Act On Headlines
“I think the worst mistake you can make in stock market is to buy or sell based on current headlines.”
- Warrant Buffet
8 January 2008
Sensex Level: 20,873
P/E Valuation: 28.51
Overall market sentiment
Net Equity inflows: `1,00,384 Crs.
(Jan 2006 - Sept 2008)
What happens next?
Sensex Returns since then: -1.44% CAGR*
20 November 2008
Sensex Level: 8,451
P/E Valuation: 10.72
Overall market sentiment
Net Equity inflows: `2,113 Crs.
(Oct 2008 - Mar 2009)
What happens next?
Sensex Returns since then: 20.21% CAGR*
28 March 2013
Sensex Level: 18,835
P/E Valuation: 15.95
Overall market sentiment
Net Equity inflows: `15,778 Crs.
(Apr 2011 - Feb 2013)
What do you think will
happen next ?
19
20
Concern 6
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
No One Is Investing In
Stock Market Right Now.
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
21
When To Invest?
What is more profitable: buying cheap or buying costly?
Choice 1: When Market is cheap, attractive but no one wants to invest.
Choice 2: When Market is costly And everyone wants to invest.
Why we opt for 2nd Choice?
Alone Group
Wrong Very Bad Not So Bad
Right Very Good Not So Good
Don’t Follow the Hand
Investor's Decision Vs Feeling
22
23
Concern 7
What if FIIs move out of
market?
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
24
502 540
685
882
997
1319
1635
1713
1722
1765
1757
1710
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
No of FIIs registered with SEBI
FII is not a single entity
There are around more than 1700+ FIIs
They are all from the different parts of the world
All of them may not require the money at the same time.
They come for the longer period of time.
Over a period of time FIIs have increased their holding in Indian companies.
We think “Achhe din aane WALE hai”
FII believe “Achhe din aa GAYE hai.”
We are proud of our country and its economic power.
FII invest in our economic power and earn from it.
25
FII Inflow In Indian Equity Market
Since last 10 years FII is net seller only in 1 financial year.
FIIs are continuously buying the Indian Equity markets
On daily basis due to the huge volumes of FIIs market may be volatile, but over long term FIIs are interested only in buying.
Source: https://www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/web/data/fii_inv_det_financial.htm
Source: www.sebi.gov.in
Financial Year
How have we done over time?
Type of Shareholder
Holding in
NIFTY-
March 2008
Holding in
NIFTY-
June 2014
Holding in
CNX 500-
March 2008
Promoter
Non Promoters
FII
DII
Public
Others
Holding in
CNX 500-
June 2014
54.95%
16.05%
10.46%
8.20%
10.34%
47.62%
22.64%
11.92%
6.63%
11.19%
58.47%
14.59%
9.31%
8.36%
9.27%
52.11%
19.91%
10.33%
7.47%
10.20%
FII Flow cr in
1992-93 13
1993-94 5,127
1994-95 4,796
1995-96 6,942
1996-97 8,546
1997-98 5,267
1998-99 -717
1999-00 9,670
FII Flow cr in
2000-01
2001-02
Financial Year
10,207
8,072
2002-03 2,527
2003-04 39,960
2004-05 44,123
2005-06 48,801
2006-07 25,236
2007-08 53,404
-47,706
2009-10 110,221
2010-11 110,121
2011-12 43,738
2012-13 140,033
2013-14 79,709
2014-15 ** 60071
Total 717,688
2008-09
Financial Year
FII Flow cr in
26
Who Own What ?
BSE 500 ownership 30th June 2014
BSE Sensex ownership 30th June 2014
Banks/FIs 1.50%
Non-Promoter Corporate
4.20% Public 7.60%
MFs 3.40%
Insurance 5.40%
Govts. 16.40%
Others 3.20%
FIIs 22.20%
Foreign Promoters
8.20%
Indian Promoters
28.10%
Banks/FIs 4.60%
Non-Promoter
Corp. 3.50%
Public 6.80%MF 3.40%
Insurance 7.70%
Govt. 17.80%
Others 3.70%
FIIs 26.70%
Foreign Promoters
5.10%
Promoters 23.80%
Retail- 12%
FII – 22%
MF – 3%
Retail - 10%
FII – 27%
MF – 3%
27
28
Concern 8
Markets are at all time high,
it can’t move up further.
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
29
Sensex may be at all time high, but valuation are not.
One need to keep an eye the valuation measured by P/E ratio to find out weather the markets are cheap or costly
P/E of market swings like pendulum from low to high.
Current PE of market
New Cycle Of Earnings GrowthThe chart below indicates the S&P Sensex expected Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth from FY13 –FY15E.
81129
181250 266 291 278 280
216 236 272348
450523
718
833 820 834
1,0241,123 1,183
1,331
1,525
FY9
3
FY9
4
FY9
5
FY9
6
FY9
7
FY9
8
FY9
9
FY0
0
FY0
1
FY0
2
FY0
3
FY0
4
FY0
5
FY0
6
FY0
7
FY0
8
FY0
9
FY1
0
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
FY1
4E
FY1
5E
FY93-96: 45% CAGR
FY96-03: 1% CAGR
FY03-08: 25% CAGR
FY08-13:7% CAGR
FY13-15E: 14% CAGR
Above forward-looking graphs & statements are based on external current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Source: Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, as on March 31 , 2014
30
Current Valuations Below Decadal Average
24.65
10.67
14.68
7
12
17
22
27
Mar-04
10 Year Avg: 15.4x
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
4.15
1.64
2.40
1.2
2.1
3.0
3.9
4.8
10 Year Avg: 2.7x
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
SEN
SEX
P/E
(x)SEN
SEX
P/B
(x)
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments.
Source: Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, as on March 31 , 2014
31
Sensex Projection
Low PE 10.68
Average PE 18.31
High PE 28.47
Historical PE movement
3 5 7
EPS 1467 2231 2951 3902
15 33467 44260 58534
18 40160 53112 70240
20 44622 59013 78045
22 49085 64915 85849
PE
Year
SENSEX projc�on @ es�mated EPS growth15%
3 5 7
EPS 1467** 2410 3356 4673
15 36155 50342 70096
18 43386 60411 84116
20 48207 67123 93462
22 53027 73835 102808
SENSEX projc�on @ es�mated EPS growth18%
Year
PE
Current EPS = Current Sensex/Current PE Sensex 28168 and PE 19.19 as per www.bseindia.com
**As on 18th Nov., 2014
32
33
Concern 9
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
I don’t need Mutual Funds, they also
go down with market.
Mutual Funds are even not beating
Sensex, why should I invest in MF?
I can do it on my own, I am educated
and intelligent.
34
It’s Not About Being Intelligent
“I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”
It’s Not About High IQ It’s About High EQNewton lost his life saving of 20000 British pound in year 1720 trying
on his own.
His loss is equal to approx Rs 18 cr. in today’s context.
Do you think you are more educated and intelligent than Isaac
-Sir Isaac Newton
35
Understanding And Doing It Different
Just by looking at the picture, I am
sure you can understand what the by
pass surgery is ..
Now if you have understood what
bypass surgery is,
If you or any of your member suffer from blockage of coronary artery?
WILL YOU DO IT YOURSELF,
Can You Do This On Your Own?
Understanding something and doing something is all together different ball game.
Par�culars
Investment On
Value As On (Panic
Investor)
Value As On (Confused Investor) Abs.
Growth
Smart Investor, Addi�onal Investment on 21st Sept 2001
14-Feb-00 21-Sep-01 23-Nov-0425000 50000 100000
Sensex 5924.31 2600.12 6009.86 1.44%
HDFC Equity Fund 100000 51179 212360 112% 316094 419828 627296
Franklin Bluechip 100000 66222 202540 102% 279003 355465 508390
Reliance Vision Fund 100000 41240 255610 155% 410563 565515 875421
HDFC Prudence Fund 100000 71651 235370 135% 317494 399618 563865
Tata Pure Equity 100000 43927 182360 82% 286569 390509 598388
Franklin India Prima Fund 100000 45550 256670 156% 397543 538415 820161
HDFC Top 200 100000 46002 169780 69% 262048 354315 538851
ICICI Pru Diversified Power 100000 45433 221220 121% 342949 464677 708135
Reliance Growth Fund 100000 26818 221750 121% 428468 635185 1048620
36
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20
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Bir
la S
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Bir
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7.9
9%
Tem
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ton
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31
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7.7
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Tata
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Fran
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66
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FC C
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row
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%
SBI M
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Glo
bal
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L&T
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Fu
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mer
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Tata
Mid
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Gro
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00
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41
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15
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05
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.10
%
37
38
Concern 10
I want to stop my SIP, because the returns are not good for last 5 years
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
39
Equity Investment - Game of Patience
Curious case of Chinese Bamboo
You take a tiny seed, plant it and water it...
you get a tiny sampling.... nothing more
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
YEARS
You water it, fertilize it.... the sampling stays as it is....
nothing happens
You continue to water it, take care of it...still nothing happens
Against your better judgment, you need to continue to
water it, fertilise it... and still nothing will happen
To everyone's surprise, the tree sprouts and grows NINTY
feet in SIX weeks
What was going on in first Few Years?
The tiny sampling was actually developing
its root system underground to sustain its
impending over the ground growth fifth
year onwards.
If you had uprooted the sampling to see
why it was not growing, it would die.
But if you were patient and had faith, you
would witness the miraculous growth later on
Investing – similar game of patience
Ch
inese
Bam
bo
o t
ree
test
s yo
ur
pati
en
ce
40
41
SIP Stopped Vs SIP Continued
Normally average Investor stops SIP after
3 or 5 years if returns are not good or negative
SIP Start Date: 15th Sept Valuation as on: 17th Novemebr 2014
Total Investment Value CAGR Total Investment Present Value(SIP) CAGR
Birla Sun Life Equity Fund - Growth 180000 171787 -3.17 255000 429373 25.90
Birla Sun Life Mid Cap Fund - Plan A -
Growth
180000 164416 -6.11 255000 431710 26.19
DSP BlackRock Equity Fund - Reg -
Dividend
180000 166851 -5.13 255000 403877 22.75
DSP BlackRock Small and Midcap Fund -
Reg - Growth
180000 159774 -8 255000 458005 29.26
DSP BlackRock Top 100 Equity Fund - Reg
- Growth
180000 179842 -0.06 255000 373815 18.81
HDFC Equity Fund - Growth 180000 164718 -5.98 255000 423069 25.14
HDFC Growth Fund - Growth 180000 165589 -5.63 255000 375811 19.08
HDFC Top 200 - Growth 180000 168967 -4.28 255000 404833 22.87
Kotak 50 - Growth 180000 176727 -1.25 255000 386695 20.53
Reliance Growth - Growth 180000 163569 -6.45 255000 413905 24.01
Reliance Vision - Growth 180000 153723 -10.52 255000 412300 23.81
Sundaram SMILE Fund - Reg - Growth 180000 150503 -11.89 255000 510341 34.98
Tata Equity P/E Fund - Plan A - Growth 180000 163176 -6.61 255000 435214 26.60
Scheme NameSIP of Rs 5000
per month
3 Years Return as on 17 th Aug. 13 ( ) SIP Stopped
Return of same �ll Nov 2014
(SIP con�nued )
Total Investment Value CAGRTotal
Investmen
Present
Value(SIP)CAGR
Birla Sun Life Equity Fund - Growth 300000 326814 3.49 375000 724518 21.36
Birla Sun Life Mid Cap Fund - Plan A - Growth 300000 330158 3.9 375000 757908 22.83
DSP BlackRock Equity Fund - Reg - Dividend 300000 332700 4.22 375000 702896 20.37
DSP BlackRock Small and Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 300000 344293 5.62 375000 857952 26.92
DSP BlackRock Top 100 Equity Fund - Reg - Growth 300000 351504 6.47 375000 640076 17.31
HDFC Equity Fund - Growth 300000 344709 5.67 375000 771726 23.43
HDFC Growth Fund - Growth 300000 333513 4.32 375000 658214 18.22
HDFC Top 200 - Growth 300000 343043 5.47 375000 718737 21.10
Kotak 50 - Growth 300000 336806 4.72 375000 649006 17.76
Reliance Growth - Growth 300000 319006 2.5 375000 707261 20.57
Reliance Vision - Growth 300000 291942 -1.11 375000 686439 19.59
Sundaram SMILE Fund - Reg - Growth 300000 291401 -1.18 375000 868338 27.32
Tata Equity P/E Fund - Plan A - Growth 300000 325948 3.38 375000 761619 23.00
5 Years Return as on 17 th
Aug.13 (SIP Stopped)
Return of same �ll Nov 2014
(SIP con�nued )
SIP Start Date: 15th Sept Valuation as on: 17th Novemebr 2014
Scheme Name SIP of Rs 5000 per month
42
43
Concern 11
I want to save for my Son’s
education/My retirement;
why should I invest in equity? wherein
there is no surety of returns?
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
44
PPF Returns
Normally average Investor stops SIP after
3 or 5 years if returns are not good or negative
45
ELSS Vs. PPF(i
n R
s. L
acs)
Rs. 15 LacsRs. 30.30 Lacs
Rs. 128.99 Lacs
(1.29 Crore)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Invested Amt. PPF ELSS
ELSS Vs. PPF
Time Horizon
Rate of ReturnCurrent Value
(Rs. Lacs)
15 Years
15 Years
PPF
ELSS
1,00,000
1,00,000
Rs. 15 Lacs
Rs. 15 Lacs
Refer the PPF interest rate table
24.34%*
Rs. 30.30 Lacs
Rs. 128.99 Lacs
Invst. Made in
Invst. Per Annum(Rs.)
Invst. Till Date (Rs. Lacs)
46
Comparison Of ELSS Vs. PPFThe Table shows value of 1 lac invested every year in PPF, Sensex
and Various ELSS schemes on 31st July of every year.
Valuation Date: 31 July 2014.
Summary
past performance may or may not sustain in future.
7 YearsScheme Name 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 12 Years1 Year 2 Years
Axis Long Term Equity Fund
Birla Sun Life Tax Plan
Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96
BNP Paribas Long Term Equity Fund
Canara Robeco Equity Taxsaver
DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund
Franklin India Taxshield
HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund
HDFC Taxsaver
HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund
ICICI Prudential Taxplan
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund
Kotak Taxsaver
L&T Tax Advantage Fund
Principal Personal Taxsaver
Principal Tax Savings Fund
Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund
Religare Invesco Tax Plan
SBI Magnum Tax Gain Scheme 93
Sundaram Taxsaver
Tata Tax Saving Fund - Plan A
UTI Equity Tax Savings Plan
1,67,843
1,49,791
1,51,256
1,50,328
1,43,582
1,52,118
1,52,607
1,48,587
1,60,013
1,54,517
1,59,549
1,42,927
1,50,176
1,43,163
1,44,401
1,55,844
1,95,481
1,55,117
1,51,442
1,43,888
1,44,549
1,40,607
3,59,968
3,14,530
3,18,358
3,22,219
3,00,129
3,22,236
3,20,471
3,16,690
3,31,075
3,18,843
3,34,660
3,07,721
2,98,445
3,00,045
3,01,251
3,31,379
3,87,782
3,26,062
3,15,988
2,94,376
3,04,000
2,93,482
5,74,686
4,95,254
5,00,784
5,13,107
4,74,621
5,14,376
5,01,061
4,97,025
5,12,064
5,10,056
5,27,932
4,85,999
4,61,354
4,65,471
4,72,463
5,34,103
6,13,274
5,11,120
5,00,517
4,61,945
4,75,139
4,56,522
NA
8,59,910
8,35,462
9,18,546
8,55,966
8,90,104
9,11,924
8,76,224
8,87,317
8,80,483
9,44,620
8,59,657
7,83,472
8,26,702
7,92,725
8,99,764
10,84,115
9,14,100
8,61,570
7,77,509
8,38,694
7,83,252
NA
13,37,830
13,15,051
14,07,176
15,01,406
14,57,672
14,94,884
14,41,794
14,77,897
14,17,586
16,27,640
NA
12,18,576
13,82,805
12,39,661
13,37,428
17,74,660
15,63,288
13,65,927
12,21,409
13,46,717
12,11,495
NA
24,55,300
24,40,837
NA
31,50,460
NA
29,60,255
26,65,502
29,68,633
NA
30,87,422
NA
NA
NA
23,14,297
23,98,953
NA
NA
28,75,099
25,63,615
24,22,991
21,19,101
NA
48,67,797
43,95,364
NA
55,94,754
NA
56,53,976
55,14,983
64,20,773
NA
63,90,486
NA
NA
NA
39,66,763
43,15,567
NA
NA
68,97,552
51,54,556
45,24,251
35,75,622
PPF Calculated @ Actual Rates
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Sensex
1,08,909
1,95,481
1,40,607
1,52,626
1,31,663
2,27,340
3,87,782
2,93,482
3,19,078
2,82,245
3,56,056
6,13,274
4,56,522
5,02,676
4,39,635
6,45,176
10,84,115
7,77,509
8,70,577
7,54,037
9,82,442
17,74,660
12,11,495
14,07,045
11,79,196
15,96,487
31,50,460
21,19,101
26,47,882
22,38,518
20,93,017
68,97,552
35,75,622
51,74,803
37,51,234
47
Case Study – Retirement Planning
• Retirement Age
• Life Expectancy
• Current Monthly Expense
• Inflation
• Risk free return after retirement
• Monthly Expense at retirement
• Corpus Required for the Retirement
Age 60 Years
80 Years
25000
8%
9%
1,71,212
4,53,30,143
Name: Raj Sharma- Age 35
Years to Save – 25
Expected Return 8% 12% 15% 18% 20%
Monthly Investment required
49,550 26,630 16,444 10,069 7,241
Power of compounding is the 8th wonder of world.
Retirement Corpus needed 4.53 Cr.
48
Case Study – Child Education Fund
• Child Age
• Higher Education Age
• Current Education expense
• Inflation
• Expected Education cost
(after 13 years)
5 Years
18 Years
10,00,000 Rs.
8%
27,19,623 Rs.
Parent : Anil Kumar - Child Name : Samir
Years to Save – 13
Power of compounding is the 8th wonder of world.
Child Education Fund Required 27.19 Lac.
Expected Return 8% 12% 15% 18% 20%
Monthly Investment required (Rs)
10,111 7,600 6,111 4,902 4,228
49
50
Concern 12
What if the fund chosen
by me under-perform?
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
51
Past performance as
on 23td June, 2014
Par�culars 15 Years
Total Number of Schemes 49
Highest Return (%) 26.24
Lowest Return (%) 10.68
Average Return (%) 18.70
Schemes with 20% plus CAGR 22
Schemes with 15% plus CAGR 42
Schemes with 12% plus CAGR 47
Schemes with 10% plus CAGR 49
All diversified equity funds which has completed 15 years as on 23rd June, 2014.
• Don’t invest in Schemes based on Past Performance only.
• Consult your Financial Advisor
• Ask for Fund Selection Parameters.
52
em Power
empower ing you to succeed
Disclaimer and Risk Factors:
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