finding common ground: mutual us-russian concerns in syria
DESCRIPTION
Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria
Presented by:Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama
Background
~70,000 killed2.5-3 million
internally displaced
~1.2 million refugees
March 2011 - present
The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders
Supreme Kurdish Committee (SKC)
Prominent Actors in the Opposition
Kurdish Nation
al Council
KurdishDemocrati
c Union Party
Ebril Declaration
-Internally divided-Lacks genuine ground
presence-Detached from Kurdish
youth
-Internally cohesive-Has an established
presence-Rejects any type of foreign
intervention
National Coalition for Syrian and Opposition
Forces
Prominent Actors in the Revolution
SNC FSA
Al-Nusra Front
Other Opposition
Groups-Requests support without military intervention
-Has clear plan for role in transition
-Tension with FSA
-Inclusive militia of SA deserters
-Sees itself as secular protector of Syria -Alleged Al-Qaeda
links-Strong community
outreach-Co-opting
infrastructure to fund operations
The Suffering Economic Climate of Syria
GDP growth
3.2% in 2010
-3% in 2012
Investment
$14 bn in 2010
$10 bn in 2012
Unemployment
8.3 % in 2010
13.4 % in 2012
Inflation30% in
2012
4.8% in 2010
Syria and US-Russian Relations
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Sunni Extremists
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Chechen Fighters
Regional Security Concerns and International Implications
Insecurity
- Insurgency in the North Caucuses- Sunni Public Opinion
A strong stance is hard to convert into concrete influence
Moscow Perspective
NeutralStance
Recent ShiftSupport for
Assad
- Lack of secular replacement for Assad- Low legitimacy of opposition- Security Council Stalemate
US Perspective
Alternatives:
Tactical changes, strategic continuity
Room for compromise?
Key but “distant” players
CONCLUSIONPolicy Proposals
THANK YOU