cnbc fed survey, april 28, 2015

CNBC Fed Survey – April 28, 2015 of 33

FED SURVEY April 28, 2015

These survey results represent the opinions of 38 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists. They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected

on April 23-24, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question. Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

1. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate in 2015?

84%

11%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Yes No Don't know/unsure



2. Which of the following statements best describes your view of the recent weakness in the economic data?

3%

66%

32%

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

It's a sign of a realweakening in the

economy that willpersist for at least a

few quarters

It's a temporaryslowdown and the

economy willbounce back in the

second or thirdquarter

It's a combinationof temporary and

more permanentfactors

Don't know/unsure



3. For U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings, the strength of the dollar is:

13%

76%

11% 11%

78%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Positive Negative Don't know/unsure

Mar 17 Apr 28



4. What effect does strength of the dollar have on your GDP growth/core inflation forecast for 2015?

-0.22 -0.22

-0.30 -0.24

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

GDP Inflation

Pct

. po

ints

Mar 17 Apr 28



5. As a result of the strength of the U.S. dollar, Fed policy will be:

32%

61%

5%

3%

41%

49%

3%

5%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Easier thanoriginally

forecast

The same asoriginally

forecast

Tighter thanoriginally

forecast

Could go eitherway

Don'tknow/unsure

Mar 17 Apr 28



6. Relative to an economy operating at full capacity, what best describes your view of the amount of resource slack in the U.S. right now for labor?

48%

34%

20% 18%

16% 16% 13%

6%

36%

40%

60%

69%

55%

50%

63% 64%

4% 6%

3%

0% 0%

6%

11%

0%

8%

11%

6%

5%

24%

19%

22%

4%

9% 9% 8%

5%

9%

3%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

July 29 August 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28

Considerably more slack now Modestly more slack now

No difference Modestly less slack now

Considerably less slack now

Modestly less slack

Modestly more slack

Considerably less slack

No difference

Considerably more slack



Relative to an economy operating at full capacity, what best describes your view of the amount of resource slack in the U.S. right now for production capacity?

8%

14%

8%

56%

60%

64% 64%

55%

59%

57% 57%

13%

19%

5%

24%

13%

11%

19%

9%

5%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

July 29 August 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28

Considerably more slack now Modestly more slack now

No difference Modestly less slack now

Considerably less slack now

No difference

Modestly more slack

Modestly less slack

Considerably less slack

Considerably more slack



7. What is your measure of full employment in the U.S.?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Average:

4.8%



8. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on … ?

2075

2149

2111

2194 2187

2128

2156

2311 2296

2247 2259

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

July 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 April 28

Survey Dates

December 31, 2015 December 31, 2016



9. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will be on … ?

3.43% 3.45%

3.19%

2.96%

2.54% 2.57%

2.33%

3.52%

3.04%

3.14%

2.89%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 April 28

Survey Dates

December 31, 2015 December 31, 2016



10. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in real U.S. GDP for …?

Jan 28,'14

Mar 18 Apr 28 Jun 4 Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16Jan 27,

'15Mar 17

April28

2015 +2.90%+3.02%+3.00%+2.81%+2.75%+2.90%+2.90%+3.02%+2.99%+2.69%+2.70%

2016 +2.88%+2.80%+2.84%+2.81%

+2.90%

+3.02% +3.00%

+2.81%

+2.75%

+2.90% +2.90%

+3.02%

+2.99%

+2.69% +2.70%

+2.88%

+2.80%

+2.84%

+2.81%

2.5%

2.7%

2.9%

3.1%

3.3%

3.5%

2015 2016



11. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?

2.02%

2.29% 2.27%

2.01%

1.74%

1.17%

1.01% 1.00%

2.17%

2.07% 2.08%

1.96%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

2.2%

2.4%

Jun 4 Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27,'15

Mar 17 April 28

Survey Dates

2015 2016



12. When do you expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate

and allow its balance sheet to decline?

Survey Date Fed Funds Hike

Average Forecast

Balance Sheet

Average Forecast

April 28, 2014 survey July 2015 October 2015

June 4 survey August 2015 March 2016

July 29 survey August 2015 December 2015

August 20 survey July 2015 Not asked

September 16 survey June 2015 December 2015

October 28 survey July 2015 January 2016

December 16 survey July 2015 February 2016

Jan. 27, 2015 survey September 2015 April 2016

March 17 survey August 2015 April 2016

April 28 survey October 2015 May 2016



14. How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary policy?

28%

49%

46%

49%

44%

39%

50%

54%

50%

43%

43%

49%

43%

49% 50%

47%

32%

44%

17%

6%

3% 3% 3%

6% 5%

0%

13%

3%

3%

6% 5% 6%

3%

8%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 31,'12

Jul 29,'14

Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27,'15

Mar 17 Apr 28

Too accommodative Just right Too restrictive Don't know/unsure

Too accomodative

Don't know/unsure

Too restrictive

Just right



15. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on … ?

Jul 30Sep

17

Oct

29

Dec

17

Jan

28 '14

Mar

18

Apr

28Jun 4 Jul 29

Aug

20

Sep

16

Oct

28

Dec

16

Jan

27,'15

Mar

17

April

28

Dec 31, 2015 0.97%0.92%0.82%0.70%0.72%0.83%0.99%0.68%1.05%0.89%0.98%0.89%0.83%0.73%0.71%0.54%

Dec 31, 2016 1.99%2.13%2.04%1.93%1.75%1.84%1.46%

0.97% 0.92%

0.82%

0.70% 0.72%

0.83%

0.99%

0.68%

1.05%

0.89%

0.98%

0.89%

0.83%

0.73% 0.71%

0.54%

1.99%

2.13%

2.04%

1.93%

1.75%

1.84%

1.46%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Dec 2016

Dec 2015



16. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the terminal rate?

3.16% 3.20%

3.30%

3.17% 3.11%

3.04%

2.85%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27, '15 Mar 17 Apr 28

Survey Dates



17. When do you believe fed funds will reach its terminal rate?

Survey Date Forecast

August 20 survey Q4 2017

September 16 survey Q3 2017

October 28 survey Q4 2017

December 16 survey Q1 2018

Jan. 27, 2015 survey Q1 2018

March 17 survey Q4 2017

April 28 survey Q1 2018



18. What grade would you give Janet Yellen as Fed chair so far?

Numerical average based on A=4, B=3, C=2, D=1, F=0

27%

46%

22%

5%

0%

10%

51%

23%

3% 3%

36%

50%

11%

0%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A B C D F

Bernanke (Dec 17, 2013) Yellen (April 28, 2014) Yellen (April 28, 2015)

Averages:

Bernanke Dec '13

B (2.95)

Yellen Apr '14

B- (2.71)

Yellen Apr '15

B+ (3.17)



19. Please rate Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke on their

performances in the following areas on a scale of 0 to 5. (A

higher number represents better performance.).

April 2014 April 2015

Bernanke Yellen Bernanke Yellen

Leadership 3.95 3.27 4.25 3.89

Transparency 3.65 3.60 4.00 3.91

Communication 3.38 3.06 3.69 3.83

Economic

Forecasting 2.95 3.27 2.94 3.39

Overall

Monetary Policy 3.47 3.08 3.92 3.78



20. What is your forecast for WTI crude oil's lowest price in the current downturn?

$39.58 $39.95

$42.15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Average Forecast

Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28



21. What is your forecast for the lowest level of the dollar vs. the euro in the current downturn??

$0.95

$0.99

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

Average Forecast

Mar 17 April 28



22. What is the percentage chance each of the following countries will leave the euro zone in the next 3 years? (0%=No

chance of leaving, 100%=Certainty of leaving):

41%

13% 12%

9% 8%

3%

39%

11%

8% 7%

5%

3% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland Germany France

Mar 17 Apr 28



23. Has the U.S. stock market already discounted a fed funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve next year?

56%

36%

8%

53%

38%

9%

53%

47%

0%

47%

50%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No Don't know/unsure

Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28



24. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic recovery?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

European recession/financial crisis

Tax/regulatory policies

Slow job growth

Inflation

Deflation

Debt ceiling

Rise in interest rates

Geopolitical risks

Global economic weakness

Slow wage growth

Other

Don't know/unsure

Europeanrecession/financial

crisis

Tax/regulatory

policies

Slow jobgrowth

InflationDeflationDebt

ceiling

Rise ininterest

rates

Geopolitical risks

Globaleconomicweakness

Slow wagegrowth

OtherDon't

know/unsure

Apr 30 20%31%20%0%2%2%11%0%

Jun 18 15%28%20%3%3%0%13%0%

Jul 30 8%30%22%0%2%2%10%14%4%

Sep 17 4%27%22%2%0%4%18%7%2%

Oct 29 8%29%24%3%3%3%8%13%0%

Dec 17 5%32%29%2%0%2%15%2%2%

Jan 28 '14 7%21%30%2%0%0%12%21%0%

Mar 18 10%23%26%3%5%0%5%18%0%

Apr 28 3%26%21%3%5%0%8%18%13%0%

Jul 29 12%29%12%6%3%0%12%12%12%3%

Sep 16 6%26%29%6%3%0%6%11%11%3%

Oct 28 31%18%15%3%3%0%10%8%8%3%

Dec 16 40%14%14%3%6%0%3%14%3%0%

Jan 27 '15 0%13%9%0%0%0%6%16%41%6%16%0%

Mar 17 6%14%0%3%6%0%6%8%28%17%14%0%

April 28 3%11%8%3%0%0%6%11%28%8%19%3%

Apr 30 Jun 18 Jul 30 Sep 17 Oct 29 Dec 17 Jan 28 '14 Mar 18

Apr 28 Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 '15 Mar 17 April 28



FED SURVEY April 30,

25. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No

chance of recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)

Aug

11,'11

Sep

19

Oct

31

Jan

23,'12

Mar

16

Apr

24

Jul

31

Sep

12

Dec

11

Jan

29,'13

Mar

19

Apr

30

Jun

18

Jul

30

Sep

6

Oct

29

Dec

17

Jan

28'14

Mar

18

Apr

28

Jul

29

Sep

16

Oct

28

Dec

16

Jan

27'15

Mar

17

April

28

Series1 34.0 36.1 25.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 25.9 26.0 28.5 20.4 17.6 18.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 18.4 17.3 15.3 16.9 14.6 16.2 15.0 15.1 13.6 13.0 16.4 14.7

34.0%

36.1%

25.5%

20.3%

19.1%

20.6%

25.9%

26.0%

28.5%

20.4%

17.6%

18.2%

15.2%

16.2% 16.9%

18.4%

17.3%

15.3%

16.9%

14.6%

16.2%

15.0%

15.1%

13.6% 13.0%

16.4%

14.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Survey Dates




26. What is your primary area of interest?

Comments: Thomas Costerg, Standard Chartered Bank: There is a problem of timing right now. The hit to oil-related business investment is

front loaded while it may take time for consumers to realize how much they save at the gas pump; meanwhile, a rising US dollar exacerbates US manufacturing sector’s pain. One should not lose faith in an acceleration in consumer spending later this year. When it

comes to the Fed, recent weaker data is likely to fuel their prudence. We still expect a September rate hike, followed by a very gradual tightening cycle, and a low terminal rate of 2.0%. The main risk is a lower rather than higher terminal rate.

Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO: The Fed can’t keep its grip on markets forever, and it doesn’t want to, either. Indeed, the era of “Yellenomics” rooted in excess labor supply justifying extraordinary

accommodation is slowly coming to an end. That said, when constructing investment portfolios we suggest investors stay calm

Economics

41%

Equities 24%

Fixed Income

14%

Currencies 0%

Other 22%




and focus on the path of the Fed’s policy rate and its ultimate destination, as well as policy rates abroad, which are likely to stay low for the rest of the decade, compelling investors to keep reaching for higher yields and returns. Supply-side Yellenomics is (slowly)

losing its grip on markets The recent rally in the U.S. dollar indicates very clearly that the Federal Reserve’s post-crisis efforts to influence market prices are giving way to more traditional influences and in particular economic data and underlying economic

fundamentals. For almost eight years, the Fed, through its bond buying and zero interest rate policy, has aimed to influence markets on several fronts:

1. Reduce forward rate expectations

2. Suppress interest rate volatility 3. Compel investors to move outward along the risk spectrum

Now, because of the cumulative progress seen in reducing economic slack and in particular in getting people back to work, the Fed can no

longer sustainably keep investors from pricing in an eventual rate hike. For now, this is manifesting itself mainly in the value of the U.S. dollar, where a divergence in the path of monetary policy in the U.S. versus that of Europe and Japan has become prominent – while

the Fed is poised to raise interest rates, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are continuing to ease policy and they are years away from rate hikes of their own. The dollar’s surge suggests that

market participants believe the U.S. economy is inching closer to full employment, which in the Fed’s eyes will be reached when the unemployment rate is between 5.0% and 5.2%. In other words, fundamentals – not the Fed’s words, mind you – are increasingly

driving market prices. The era of the Fed providing substantial near-term forward guidance is over. It has given way to economic data, and now every Fed meeting is “live.” Therefore, with the underutilization of labor resources continuing to diminish, the Federal

Reserve’s ability to control market prices will diminish, too, because markets will expect the Fed to end its emergency policy rate, and this will be the major driver of market prices rather than the Fed’s forward guidance. This is in contrast to recent years when the Fed




easily convinced investors it would keep its policy rate at zero using the argument that wages and thus inflation would be kept down by a vast supply of untapped labor. Now, with the jobless rate at a relatively low 5.5%, this argument is becoming less potent a force in

shaping market prices. Yellenomics – in other words, the Yellen-era policy framework that utilizes the supply argument as a rationale for maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative stance on monetary policy – is on the wane, albeit slowly, because the debate over labor

supply is moving from one of obvious abundance to one that is less obvious. The U.S. jobless rate is the most convincing example, even if a somewhat flawed indicator. In light of growing indications of declining excess labor market supply, it can be argued that the

earlier the Fed moves the less it will have to move later. Let me explain: risk management for the Fed up until now has been to avoid acting prematurely. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, who participated in PIMCO’s latest quarterly Cyclical Economic Forum,

noted that no nation had ever escaped the zero bound in the postwar era. Moving too early is therefore probably a bad idea. Yet, so is moving late, because market participants may begin to price in an even larger amount of rate hikes than if the Fed were to move

earlier, causing a greater tightening of financial conditions than is desirable. This bolsters the case for a shift in the Fed’s risk management focus to one of guarding against acting too late. The

Fed’s doves may coalesce around this idea and vote for rate hikes in order to clip the tails on scenarios where markets price in more rate hikes than they would themselves want to see. A key message the Fed is likely to convey in the time leading up to rate hikes is that

“tightening is not tightening.” Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chair, said in the days after the Fed’s March meeting that the Fed’s initial rate hikes would merely move the Fed’s stance from “ultra-expansionary” to “extremely expansionary.” In remarks at the San

Francisco Fed on March 27, Yellen said that “the economy’s equilibrium real federal funds rate … is currently quite low by historical standards” – a comment entirely consistent with PIMCO’s views about The New Neutral policy rate. The Fed’s policy rate




would remain historically low, especially relative to where the U.S. jobless rate is, and this will likely be the case for years. Moreover, the Fed’s $4.45 trillion balance sheet will continue to provide stimulus for the U.S. economy, by helping to keep interest rates

lower than they would otherwise be – because the Fed’s securities holdings reduce the amount of bonds that traditional investors can buy, raising their prices and lowering their yields. Investment implications: Focus on the path of hikes To reiterate our key

investment theme, when constructing portfolios, we suggest investors stay focused on the potentially (slow) speed and (low) magnitude of future Fed rate hikes, as well as the outlook for rates around the world, rather than the timing of the Fed’s initial hike.

Second, we expect “Yellenomics” to lose its grip on market prices, as has been occurring with the U.S. dollar in recent months, leading to an increase in market volatility. In addition, we expect markets to become even more volatile when anxieties inevitably grow in

response to the imminence of a Fed rate hike, creating risks but also opportunities. We suggest investors be prepared to act when opportunities inevitably arise. In summary, we suggest investors invest for the day(s) after the Fed’s first hike(s) and think long-term,

in particular about the low interest rate climate that will likely prevail for the rest of the decade, compelling investors to continue to reach for higher yields and returns. We suggest investors position

themselves accordingly, favoring a bias toward overweighting credit and equity risk, taking advantage of opportunities to add to both if anxieties creep into markets, as they so often do. Favor also an underweight to U.S. duration, a bias toward a flatter yield curve, as

well as a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The Fed is losing its grip – be alert and prepared to catch what moves!

John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: One benefit of the Fed moving early and cautiously is that the bond market can adapt over time. The longer the FOMC waits, the higher the odds that an eventual move would have to be more abrupt and therefore, more




disruptive. This has to enter into their thinking. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: There is considerable uncertainty over the extent to which financial conditions have

tightened. While the focus is on the dollar, in Q1, the U-3 and U-6 unemployment rates declined as core inflation and hourly earnings growth picked up. Despite this, nominal yields declined. So, in some respects, monetary conditions have eased even as the FOMC has

moved closer to its statutory goals. We see the Fed as running the risk of wedding itself too much to market variables and not enough to economic ones. Bank lending growth has been quite strong this year; financial conditions are actually easing to the real economy.

Kevin Giddis, Raymond James/Morgan Keegan: While the Fed seemingly wants to move off of a near-zero monetary policy, they have painted themselves into a bit of a corner if they remain "data

dependent," because the current data is working against them. If they chose to go full steam ahead and tighten, look for heightened volatility and challenges to the liquidity in the market. If the data supports it...then do it! The market will likely adjust in a more

orderly fashion. Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services Group: Watch the ECI

for best measure of worker compensation. It should accelerate further in 1Q to 2.6% Y/Y showing tightening labor market despite U6 well above normal. Housing getting its "groove" back with sales, prices and building/remodeling moving higher this year. Positive sign

for overall economy, esp. for millenials. Fed funds futures market winning early rounds in its heavyweight fight with the Fed over timing of first funds rate hike and pace of hikes thereafter. Is 'don't fight the Fed' passe?

Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: Bull markets end with policy missteps. We will not have one this year




Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors: Currently, the case for a continuation of the stock market-economic-interest rate cycle is very sound. The combination of a shift in monetary policy toward restraint and a possible Congressional-driven shift in fiscal policy toward

restraint will present a significant challenge to the U.S. economy as we move into 2016-2017. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: Negative interest rates in

Europe are the largest single factor in asset pricing worldwide. They should not be underestimated. Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Markets seem

mesmerized by quantitative ease as halo. However, the Federal Reserve needs to start in 2015 the process of reducing ease including raising rates irrespective of domestic and global uncertainties. We expect valuation containment and volatility in

capital markets. Company delivery fundamentals like revenue gain challenges, the collateral implications of quantitative ease like hollowing out risk and key world political events like Middle East turmoil but also China's focus on infrastructure and trade linkages

draw our attention. Across sectors, companies sticking to their knitting can be distinguished from others– reasons to focus on quality of delivery and financial statement strength.

Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: Earlier this year I thought the first Fed rate hike would come by June. Now I think low oil prices and the strong dollar will keep inflation low enough to push

the hike off to September. Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: Since everyone knows the Fed is going to increase rates, it should stop playing Hamlet and

get it over with. James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: I think the biggest problems faced today by the U.S. economy are two supply-side




constraints -- the slowest growth in the working age population of the post-war era and the worst productivity performance of any recovery. The Fed continues to employ demand-side policies when the economy suffers from supply-side issues. Policy focus should

shift towards helping to improve productivity (e.g., investment tax credits or increased government investment spending) and winding down and normalizing what has become essentially an ineffective demand-side monetary policy.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: Markets are supplanting the Fed's policy lead. A stronger dollar is tightening policy, while foreign demand for bonds is easing policy by pressing

long-term interest rates down. John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: While we continue to see no immediate risks to the current upswing in the equity markets, we

remain very concerned about current equity valuations. Should a downside catalyst arise, a major decline in the equity markets should not be discounted. The current near-universal bullishness among investors is especially troubling, although given the lack of negative

catalysts, we remain in the bullish camp for the foreseeable future. John Ryding, RDQ Economics: The Fed is in a not-impatient

holding pattern and has already signaled that a rate hike is not really on the table for discussion. The Fed should raise rates in June but will probably wait until September. Even so, I think the market is underestimating the path of rate hikes over the next two years as

unemployment is seen falling below 5% by year-end and as inflation starts to move back up. Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The best is yet to come, and

will, for the U.S and global economies. Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial: The economy is more sensitive to rate hikes than further monetary easing when we are operating




close to zero on rates; this asymmetry is influencing monetary policy along with uncertainty over the durability of the expansion. We have shown we can come back from a weak quarter; we have not proven that we can avoid intermittent growth.

Peter Tanous, Lynx Investment Advisory: Interest rates will eventually turn up, reversing a downward trend that began 35 years ago. So what happens when a 35-year trend changes? Nobody

knows! But we'd better be prepared for the unexpected. Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: The stronger dollar is clearly having a negative effect on the economy and corporate profits in the near

term but will be a positive for the economy later this year and in 2016. The greatest risk for the economy will be the implementation of rate hikes by the Fed. They not only need to get the timing, pace, and magnitude of rate hikes right but must also manage market

expectations so that they avoid a repeat of the taper tantrum. Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Advisors: The stock market is believing more and more that the Fed is not going hike rates this year. The

Fed is going to spell out 3 or 4 months in advance of the first hike almost exactly what they will do and when they will do it. They will use Fed-speak but there will be no question as to when the initial

hike will occur and what the pace will be. The market will be fully prepped. Pace and magnitude are much more important than when the initial hike will occur. I still believe it will take years to normalize rates....the Fed will move very slowly.

Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics: The outlook is strong, and the risks to this outlook are about as less risky as I can remember.

cnbc fed survey, april 28, 2015

Documents

slack cnbc fed survey

survey results

online survey

slack nowconsiderably

resource slack

fed policy

slack nowmodestly

slack nowno difference