cnbc fed survey, oct 27, 2015

CNBC Fed Survey – October 27, 2015 of 31

FED SURVEY October 27, 2015

FED SURVEY April 30,

These survey results represent the opinions of 41 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists. They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on October 22-23, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question. Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys. This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

1. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate at

its October meeting?

0%

95%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No Don't know/unsure




2. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate in 2015?

84%

92%

82%

67%

80%

46%

11%

5%

15%

23%

44%

5%

9% 10% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25 Sep 16 Oct 27





3. If the Fed does not hike this year, which two factors from the following list do you believe will most likely be the reason?

32%

59%

47%

12%

32%

57%

60%

24%

29%

7%

61%

55%

16%

31%

10%

60%

53%

35%

15%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Weak overseas growth

Declining inflation

Weak US economic growth

Concern over market reaction to a hike

Weak payroll growth

Jun 16 Aug 25 Sep 16 Oct 27




4. How serious a concern is China for the US economy?

0%

7%

21%

16%

12%

12%

16%

16%

0%

0%

0%

16%

20%

18%

10%

12%

18%

6%

0%

0%

3%

8%

28%

10%

10%

20%

20%

3%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1010=

Hig

hes

t le

vel o

f se

rio

usn

ess

1

=No

t se

rio

u s

at

all1

=No

t se

rio

us

at a

ll

Aug 25 Sep 16 Oct 27

Averages:

Aug 25: 5.1

Sep 16: 4.6 Oct 27: 4.7




5. Is the Fed paying too much attention to extreme market swings in setting the appropriate monetary policy?

43%

49%

8%

60%

40%

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Sep 16 Oct 27




6. What best describes your view of communication from Fed chair Janet Yellen and from Fed governors and presidents of their views on monetary policy?

8%

34%

50%

8%

20% 25%

50%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Talks too much Don't talk enough Talks the rightamount

Don't know/unsure

Yellen Sep 16 Oct 27

64%

4%

28%

4%

80%

5%

13%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Talk too much Don't talk enough Talk the rightamount

Don't know/unsure

Fed govs/pres Sep 16 Oct 27




7. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on … ?

2075

2149

2111

2194 2187

2128

2156 2159

2135

2032

2079

2311 2296

2247

2259

2293

2254

2159

2166

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27'15

Mar 17 Apr282

Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept16

Oct 27

Survey Dates

December 31, 2015 December 31, 2016




8. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will be on … ?

3.43% 3.45%

3.19%

2.96%

2.54%

2.57%

2.33%

2.64%

2.62%

2.40%

2.20%

3.52%

3.04%

3.14%

2.89%

3.24%

3.17%

2.88%

2.67%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27'15

Mar 17 April28

Jul 16 Jul 28 Sept16

Oct 27

Survey Dates

December 31, 2015 December 31, 2016




9. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in real U.S. GDP for …?

Jan

28,

'14

Mar

18

Apr

28Jun 4 Jul 29

Sep

16

Oct

28

Dec

16

Jan

27,

'15

Mar

17

April

28

Jun

16Jul 28

Sept

16

Oct

27

2015 +2.90 +3.02 +3.00 +2.81 +2.75 +2.90 +2.90 +3.02 +2.99 +2.69 +2.70 +2.25 +2.41 +2.43 +2.32

2016 +2.88 +2.80 +2.84 +2.81 +2.78 +2.70 +2.64 +2.60

+2.90%

+3.02% +3.00%

+2.81%

+2.75%

+2.90% +2.90%

+3.02% +2.99%

+2.69% +2.70%

+2.25%

+2.41% +2.43%

+2.32%

+2.88%

+2.80%

+2.84% +2.81%

+2.78%

+2.70%

+2.64%

+2.60%

2.0%

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

2015 2016




10. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?

2.02%

2.29% 2.27%

2.01%

1.74%

1.17%

1.01% 1.00%

1.17%

1.10%

0.83%

0.63%

2.17%

2.07%

2.08%

1.96%

2.29%

2.17%

1.89%

1.75%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Jun 4 Jul 29 Sep

16

Oct 28 Dec

16

Jan

27,'15

Mar

17

April

28

Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept

16

Oct 27

Survey Dates

2015 2016




11. When do you expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate and allow its balance sheet to decline?

Survey Date Fed Funds Hike

Average Forecast

Balance Sheet

Average Forecast

April 28, 2014 survey July 2015 October 2015

June 4 survey August 2015 March 2016

July 29 survey August 2015 December 2015

August 20 survey July 2015 Not asked

September 16 survey June 2015 December 2015

October 28 survey July 2015 January 2016

December 16 survey July 2015 February 2016

Jan. 27, 2015 survey September 2015 April 2016

March 17 survey August 2015 April 2016

April 28 survey October 2015 May 2016

June 16 survey October 2015 July 2016

July 28 survey November 2015 June 2016

August 25 survey January 2016 September 2016

September 16 survey November 2015 August 2016

October 27 survey March 2016 November 2016




12. How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary policy?

28%

49%

46%

49%

44%

39%

50%

54%

50%

60%

54%

64%

43%

43%

49%

43%

49% 50%

47%

32%

44%

35%

47%

32%

23%

17%

6%

3% 3% 3%

6% 5% 6% 4%

8% 13%

3%

3%

6% 5% 6%

3%

8%

6%

3%

0%

10%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jul 31,'12

Jul 29,'14

Aug 20Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan27, '15

Mar 17 Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept16

Oct 27

Too accommodative Just right Too restrictive Don't know/unsure

Too accomodative

Don't know/unsure

Too restrictive

Just right




13. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on … ?

0.97% 0.92%

0.82%

0.70% 0.72%

0.83%

0.99%

0.68%

1.05%

0.89%

0.98%

0.89%

0.83%

0.73% 0.71%

0.54%

0.53%

0.47% 0.37%

0.25%

1.99%

2.13%

2.04%

1.93%

1.75%

1.84%

1.46%

1.56%

1.41%

1.12%

1.17%

0.91%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Dec 2016

Dec 2015




14. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the terminal rate?

3.16% 3.20%

3.30%

3.17%

3.11%

3.04%

2.85%

3.06%

2.98%

2.79%

2.69% 2.65%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Aug20

Sep16

Oct28

Dec16

Jan27,

'15

Mar17

Apr28

Jun16

Jul 28 Aug25

Sept16

Oct27

Survey Dates




15. When do you believe fed funds will reach its terminal rate?

Survey Date Forecast

August 20 survey Q4 2017

September 16 survey Q3 2017

October 28 survey Q4 2017

December 16 survey Q1 2018

Jan. 27, 2015 survey Q1 2018

March 17 survey Q4 2017

April 28 survey Q1 2018

June 16 survey Q1 2018

July 28 survey Q2 2018

August 25 survey Q3 2018

September 16 survey Q1 2018

October 27 survey Q3 2018




16. Has the U.S. stock market already discounted a fed funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year?

56%

53% 53%

47%

61%

50%

55% 56%

33%

36% 38%

47%

50%

39% 38%

36%

38%

59%

8% 9%

0%

3%

0%

12%

10%

6% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25 Sep 16 Oct 27

Survey dates


Yes

No

Don't know/unsure




Has the U.S. bond market already discounted a fed funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year?

42%

67%

62%

43%

60%

26%

56%

33% 35%

52%

40%

72%

3%

0%

3% 5%

0%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25 Sep 16 Oct 27

Survey dates


Yes

No

Don't know/unsure




17. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic recovery?

Survey Date E

uro

pean r

ecessio

n/

financia

l crisis

Tax/

regula

tory

policie

s

Slo

w job g

row

th

Inflation

Deflation

Debt

ceilin

g

Ris

e in inte

rest

rate

s

Geopolitical risks

Glo

bal econ w

eakness

Slo

w w

age g

row

th

Oth

er

Don't k

now

/

unsure

Apr 30 20% 31% 20% 0% 2% 2% 11% 0%

Jun 18 15% 28% 20% 3% 3% 0% 13% 0%

Jul 30 8% 30% 22% 0% 2% 2% 10% 14% 4%

Sep 17 4% 27% 22% 2% 0% 4% 18% 7% 2%

Oct 29 8% 29% 24% 3% 3% 3% 8% 13% 0%

Dec 17 5% 32% 29% 2% 0% 2% 15% 2% 2%

Jan 28 '14 7% 21% 30% 2% 0% 0% 12% 21% 0%

Mar 18 10% 23% 26% 3% 5% 0% 5% 18% 0%

Apr 28 3% 26% 21% 3% 5% 0% 8% 18% 13% 0%

Jul 29 12% 29% 12% 6% 3% 0% 12% 12% 12% 3%

Sep 16 6% 26% 29% 6% 3% 0% 6% 11% 11% 3%

Oct 28 31% 18% 15% 3% 3% 0% 10% 8% 8% 3%

Dec 16 40% 14% 14% 3% 6% 0% 3% 14% 3% 0%

Jan 27 '15 0% 13% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 41% 6% 16% 0%

Mar 17 6% 14% 0% 3% 6% 0% 6% 8% 28% 17% 14% 0%

April 28 3% 11% 8% 3% 0% 0% 6% 11% 28% 8% 19% 3%

Jun 16 3% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 25% 22% 6% 11% 0%

Jul 28 6% 21% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 6% 29% 9% 9% 0%

Sept 16 0% 16% 2% 0% 4% 0% 0% 8% 45% 8% 14% 2%

Oct 27 0% 8% 5% 3% 8% 0% 8% 13% 41% 10% 5% 0%




18. What are the biggest risks to maintaining zero

rates? (Please rank your current concern over these

risks from biggest concern to lowest concern.)

Note: Higher score=bigger concern. Score is a weighted sum of the rankings where a #1 rank is

weighted the most heavily and a #5 rank is weighted the least heavily.

8%

49%

33%

5% 5%

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Financialbubbles

Less defenseagainst future

shocks

The Fed'scredibility

Other No risk tomaintaining

zero

Score




19. What grade would you give Janet Yellen as Fed chair

so far?

Numerical average based on A=4, B=3, C=2, D=1, F=0

10%

51%

23%

3% 3%

36%

50%

11%

0%

3%

8%

49%

33%

5% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A B C D F

Apr 28 '14 Apr 28 '15 Oct 27

Averages:

Apr '14

B- (2.71)

Apr '15

B+ (3.17)

Oct '15

B-/C+ (2.49)




20. Please grade how Janet Yellen is doing as Fed chair

in the following areas, using a scale of 5 stars (best) to 1

star (worst).

3.27

3.06

3.89 3.83

3.26

2.90

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Leadership Communication

Apr '14 Apr '15 Oct '15




21. Comments on Janet Yellen’s performance as Fed

chair:

Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research: The

recent speech by Lael Brainard is a sharp warning against raising

rates. She made a very solid argument. This presents Yellen with a

very real challenge. She will either have to stand up and say that

Brainard is essentially right and put a rate hike on hold, or she will

have to come up with a very good case as to why it is urgent for the

Fed to be looking to raise rates. This is big moment in her tenure as

Fed chair.

Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: If the Fed’s policy was to

intentionally confuse the market how would it differ from what

they're doing now?

Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: She needs to throw away

her econometric models and have more faith in the regenerative

powers of the US economy and our free market system.

Robert Brusca, Fact and Opinion Economics: The Fed has a

policy statement that defines the conditions for a rate hike. By

allowing FOMC members to speak off the cuff about what they think

is appropriate for policy even though it may not conform to the Fed's

own policy rule is confusing. Yellen needs to find a way to corral

speakers that stray from the Fed's own expressed rules because it

only confuses markets. We do NOT have problems with the

frequency of Yellen's talking or of other FOMC members talking.

What we have is confusion about what they are saying and what that

really means. It was not until Fischer's speech in Peru at the IMF

meeting that the Fed clarified that public statements were not policy

and that Fed member expectations (say... of a rate hike by year




end) are not a commitment but that the policy statement is the Fed's

commitment. Saying that sooner could have helped the markets

greatly. Had Yellen said it instead of Fisher it might have carried

more weight.

John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: The FOMC missed a clear

opportunity to move off zero interest rate policy in September. Their

communication has added to, rather than lessened, market

confusion. They need to speak with one voice instead of the

cacophony that we are currently hearing.

Kevin Giddis, Raymond James/Morgan Keegan: I think that

Janet Yellen has taken the proper measured approach in pushing the

FOMC to do the "right" thing, not raising rates until it is time. She

has faced down her critics, but also knows that it won't be long until

the Committee must act. I give her high marks for her patience.

Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: Yellen is doing a good job in a

tough position. Fiscal policy would go a long way to help the

economy. She is not my favorite stock picker.

Constance Hunter, KPMG LLP: Dr. Yellen is faced with the difficult

job of stimulating balanced growth in the absence of modestly

stimulative fiscal policy. Meanwhile both structural and cyclical

disinflationary forces are creating noise around the signal of prices.

Add to this the apparent lack of productivity growth and it is an

exceptionally challenging time to be a central banker.

Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors: Chairman Yellen is doing

a credible job providing leadership, communicating policy, and

maintaining a sensible-balanced understanding of both domestic and

global financial markets and economic events. It is quite positive

that she has steered the Fed away from rigid quantitative targets for




policy to a far more qualitative and balanced approach. That is very

important in a world where the variables will not follow simple

historical patterns.

Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Central banking

needs more aura of mystery and of decisiveness than currently

shown.

Donald Luskin, Trend Macrolytics: I got a kick out of that

microstroke she had on national TV a couple weeks ago. Smooth.

Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: Janet Yellen has learned the

art of 'Fed Doublespeak' since she sent markets plunging after her

first press conference as Fed Chair on March 19, 2014.

Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: She appears indecisive,

even if she knows what she wants to do.

John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: She has boxed herself in by saying

that the Fed would be raising rates before the end of the year, and

will lose credibility with investors if the Fed does not increase rates,

as well as limiting its ability to act should there be any economic

shocks to the system.

Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: She hurts the

confidence of consumers and businesses by continuing to say the

economy is not good enough. She is not an elected official. And

please, can she stop calling the recent recession the "Great

Recession?" It was not as bad as the Great Depression and they

should not be tiptoeing around the economy like current business

conditions are fragile. She broke the cardinal rule. A normal

economy needs a normal interest rate. It is Fed policy that is off

course. It is Fed policy that is not normal.




John Ryding, RDQ Economics: The Fed Chair needs to pay less

attention to market gyrations and more to the labor market and

inflation dynamics that she gives speeches on in drafting the policy

statement. Her comment at the last press conference that housing

remained "very depressed" seemed out of touch with the data.

Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: Too much dissonance, too much

talking other than the Chairman is confusing markets. The attempt

at transparency is counterproductive.

Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: Yellen's only fumble so far

in her tenure has been communicating an expectation of raising the

Fed funds rate this year and not following through. She missed an

opportunity in September or earlier in the summer.

Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial: Yellen's greatest challenge lies

ahead; communication policy needs to be a strength not a

vulnerability in the system

Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: She is in a tougher position than most

previous Fed chairs and faces pressure from more constituencies.

Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Chairwoman

Yellen has a tough road ahead of her. She has been and will

continue to be a dove. She knows there is still slack in the labor

market (otherwise we would see more wage pressure)....and that is

likely to be the biggest factor driving the pace of rate hikes (which

will be very slow). The Chairwoman has not really been tested yet

by the markets but at some point during this long normalization

process that will likely change.




22. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No chance of recession, 100%=Certainty of recession)

Aug11,

'11

Sep19

Oct31

Jan23,

'12

Mar16

Apr24

Jul31

Sep12

Dec11

Jan29,

'13

Mar19

Apr30

Jun18

Jul30

Sep6

Oct29

Dec17

Jan28

'14

Mar18

Apr28

Jul29

Sep16

Oct28

Dec16

Jan27

'15

Mar17

April28

Jun16

Jul28

Sept16

Oct27

Series1 34.0 36.1 25.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 25.9 26.0 28.5 20.4 17.6 18.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 18.4 17.3 15.3 16.9 14.6 16.2 15.0 15.1 13.6 13.0 16.4 14.7 15.1 17.4 18.6 22.1

34.0%

36.1%

25.5%

20.3%

19.1%

20.6%

25.9%

26.0%

28.5%

20.4%

17.6%

18.2%

15.2%

16.2% 16.9%

18.4%

17.3%

15.3%

16.9%

14.6%

16.2%

15.0%

15.1%

13.6% 13.0%

16.4%

14.7%

15.1%

17.4%

18.6%

22.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Survey Dates




23. What is your primary area of interest?

Comments: Robert Brusca, Fact and Opinion Economics: The Fed needs to clarify in SIMPLE terms what it means. More talk is not better if it is

confusing talk. The Fed needs to take care not to promise beyond what it can deliver. It needs to express simple understandable objectives and to have those objectives reinforced with public statements, not undermined by them. The current statement's

reference to inflation is too obscure. In an environment with weak oil prices and falling commodity prices how could so many members be 'reasonably' sure that inflation would get back to 2% over the 'intermediate term' by end-2015? This is the fact that is inconsistent

with a rate hike this year. It is not inconsistent but rather sane that Fed members are backing away from these earlier strange and unfounded declarations -especially after the papers that were presented this year at Jackson Hole.

John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: The earliest possible liftoff

Economics 58%

Equities 15%

Fixed Income

10%

Currencies

0%

Other

18%




date for the FOMC is now January. That would likely require a good to very good holiday season for consumer spending combined with a winter without a polar vortex.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: If the labor market continues tightening and the Fed takes a pass at their December meeting, there will have to be a wholesale change in strategy. They would have to abandon the Phillips Curve as a rationale to boosting

their confidence in the inflation outlook. In that case, a March 2016 hike may prove to be too soon. Mike Englund, Action Economics: The pegging of rates at the

zero-bound does more harm than good for the U.S. financial sector. The first 50-100 basis points in tightening, if expectations of future rate increases are contained, will be stimulative on net for the economy.

Kevin Giddis, Raymond James/Morgan Keegan: The Fed continues to act in an appropriate way, depending heavily on the data vs. rhetoric. The fact is, the time to act is ahead of us, and the

Fed chair should get high marks for her vision and leadership. Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services Group: With U.S. stocks

back near recent highs and China easing monetary policy, solid job reports for October and November will finally give the FOMC the "confidence and courage" to start the funds rate on its slow accent over the next 2-3 years.

Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: China data is stabilizing, thus the FED should pull liftoff back into 2015.

Constance Hunter, KPMG LLP: Dr. Yellen is faced with the difficult job of stimulating balanced growth in the absence of modestly stimulative fiscal policy. Meanwhile, both structural (falling healthcare costs due to a growing percent of the population on




Medicaid/Medicare) and cyclical (falling commodity prices due to China's negative demand shock) disinflationary forces are creating noise around the signal of prices. Add to this the apparent lack of productivity growth and it is an exceptionally challenging time to be

a central banker. Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors: No further comments other than to simply reiterate that Chairperson Yellen is doing a

simply fine job during a complex and difficult time. Her ability to integrate domestic and global financial and economic events into a cohesive and sensible policy (in the face of considerable criticism) is commendable. Navigating the next few years under slow domestic

economic conditions, historically low and gradually rising inflation, and very volatile global economic and inflation conditions will be challenging. This is particularly true when domestic fiscal policy will not be helpful. Avoiding 1937-1938 conditions will be important.

Doable; and important. John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: Passing last meeting was a mistake, but a hike this time would compound the error by signaling

that the Fed cares too much about market reaction in setting policy. Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: With defensive

valuation neither being offered by quintessential equities like Consumer Staples nor by sovereign debt like U.S. Treasuries, we multi-pod asset mix into equities for the next cycle, above average cash, private investments where some control can be exerted and,

current convention notwithstanding, precious metals as hedge. We see political stress, whether global or country or for that matter corporate governance, as needing more attention and diversification. In order to build flexibility and contain risk within our underweight of

fixed income, we favor placing holdings in short to medium duration U.S. Treasurys, high quality corporate, as well as U.K. Gilts. In equities, we believe complacency to be highly clam-like about quantitative ease. We would expect lower than consensus earnings




with more focus on quality of delivery. It is likely to mean elevated volatility and channel-like equity market behavior into mid-2016, which differs from the momentum focus of many. In equities overall, we see leadership being determined worldwide by the heavy

weighting of Financial Services; by companies irrespective of sector that have been restructuring earlier than their compatriots; and by exposure to infrastructure (such as within industrials and information technology) rather than consumer concept (whether in discretionary,

staples or social media). On valuation and concept fervor already incorporated, we also now underweight Healthcare. We find duress and restructuring within Energy and Materials to be sufficient to make the stronger companies of interest as over weightings. Our

outlook likely also means a classic cycle, led by performance in the United States equity market and, as is also traditional, stronger emerging market performance being contingent on stronger global GDP growth closer to 4% than the present 3% per year.

Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: Between the ECB and the People's Bank of China, 31% of the world's GDP has executed or announced further easing. It's hard to imagine the Fed hiking rates

against the hurricane of foreign easing. Ward McCarthy, Jefferies: The Fed faces a difficult, challenging

environment of balancing domestic and global policy considerations. Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The Fed correctly avoided beginning the rate hike campaign at its last meeting due to equity

market turmoil. The Committee will start the campaign in December. Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: The Fed's communication has been inconsistent and is a major factor in the volatility in

markets. They should just do something and get it over with. Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: Reports of dissent within the Fed are straining its credibility at a time when




global markets are desperate for leadership and a roadmap. Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The Federal Reserve should get on with it and clarify the game plan after the first hike.

Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: Throughout this expansion it has paid to take the Fed at its word. Not following through with a rate hike this year reduces the Fed's credibility.

Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial: October represents an opportunity for Yellen to show her skill in building a consensus; we need to see a more cohesive message on policy going forward.

Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: The economy is losing momentum in a way that in the past has been consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates, certainly not raising them. To my recollection, I believe the

Federal Reserve has cut the Federal funds rate every time that the ISM manufacturing has fallen back below 50, which may occur in early November. Unfortunately, they have no rates to cut.

Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: We continue to argue that the Fed doesn't really have to do anything with rates in the nearer term but wants to get the ball rolling on the normalization

process. One move in December and then two in the second half of next year is our projection. US Growth is dependable and this should be the Fed's main focus. There will always be an excuse to not hike rates. The markets want certainty and the Fed is laying the

groundwork for a hike late this year....IMO that is why we have seen the robust rally off the recent lows. Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics: There is an increasing risk that

the Federal Reserve will be too slow in beginning to normalize interest rates, and will need to raise rates much more aggressively in the future.

cnbc fed survey, oct 27, 2015

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