cmp market and technology status - 2002 · october 10, 2002 agenda review of 2001 cmp markets...
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October 10, 2002
CMP Market And Technology Status - 2002
Tom Tucker
Laredo Technologies
247 East Many Lakes Drive
Kalispell, Montana 59901
(406) 755-3815
October 10, 2002
Agenda
Review of 2001 CMP Markets
Forecast For CMP Market Segments For 2002-2008
Potential Technology Shifts That Can Impact CMP Markets (And This Forecast)
Review of 2001 US CMP Related Patent Activity
Possible Technologies For Planarizing Mechanically Weak Interconnect Structures
Conclusions
October 10, 2002
1999 Revenues - $1.086 Billion
SpeedFam-IPEC$117 Million - 10.8%
Strasbaugh$26 Million - 2.4%
Lam Research$30 Million - 2.8%
All Others$54 Million - 5.0%
Applied Materials$612 Million - 56.4%Ebara
$247 Million - 22.7%
2000 Revenues - $1.519 Billion
Strasbaugh$10 Million - 0.7%
Lam Research$72 Million - 4.7%
All Others$59 Million - 3.9%
SpeedFam-IPEC$230 Million - 15.1%
Ebara $306 Million - 20.1%
Applied Materials$842 Million - 55.4%
CMP Revenue Market Shares: 1999 - 2001
2001 Revenues - $982.8 Million
Peter Wolters$27.1 Million - 2.8% All Others
$10 Million - 1.0%
Strasbaugh$10.7 Million - 1.1%
Lam Research40.4 Million - 4.1%
SpeedFam-IPEC$76.9 Million - 7.8%
Ebara$230.7 Million - 23.5%
Applied Materials$587 Million - 59.7%
October 10, 2002
Geographic Distribution Of CMP Tool Shipments For Calendar Year 2001
1999 Installed Base - 2653 Machines
ROW4 - 0.1%
Taiwan346 - 13.0%
Singapore76 - 2.9%
Japan609- 23.0%
Europe345 - 13.0%
North America1135 - 42.8%Korea
138 - 5.2%
2000 Installed Base - 3410 Machines
ROW15 - 0.44%Taiwan
521 - 15.3%
Singapore146 - 4.3%
Europe445 - 13.0%
North America1294 - 38.0%
Korea215 - 6.3%
Japan774 - 22.7%
2001 Shipments - 385 Machines
ROW21 - 5.5%Taiwan
37 - 9.6%
Singapore20 - 5.2%
Korea23 - 6.0%
Japan92 - 23.9%
Europe51 - 13.2%
North America141 - 36.6%
2001 Installed Base - 3795 Machines
ROW36 - 0.9%Taiwan
558 - 14.7%
Singapore166 - 4.4%
Korea238 - 6.3%
Japan866 - 22.8% Europe
496 - 13.1%
North America1435 - 37.8%
October 10, 2002
1999 Installed Base - 2653 Machines
All Others151 - 5.7%
Lam Research12 - 0.5%
Strasbaugh295 - 11.1%
SpeedFam-IPEC1153 - 43.5%
Ebara525 - 19.8%
Applied Materials517 - 19.5%
2001 Shipments - 385 Machines
Peter Wolters9 - 2.3%
All Others5 - 1.3%
Lam Research17 - 4.4%
Strasbaugh16 - 4.2%
SpeedFam-IPEC25 - 6.5%
Ebara87 - 22.6%
Applied Materials226 - 58.7%
2000 Installed Base - 3410 Machines
All Others183 - 5.4%
Lam Research41 - 1.2%
Strasbaugh307 - 9.0%
SpeedFam-IPEC1267 - 37.2%
Ebara674 - 19.8%
Applied Materials938 - 27.5%
CMP Tool Shipments For Calendar Year 2001 By Supplier
2001 Installed Base - 3795 Machines
Peter Wolters9 - 0.2%
All Others188 - 5.0%
Strasbaugh323 - 8.5%
Lam Research58 - 1.5%
SpeedFam-IPEC1292 - 34.0%
Ebara761 - 20.1%
Applied Materials1164 - 30.7%
October 10, 2002
CMP Market Share Trends 1995 - 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year
Re
ve
nu
e M
ark
et
Sh
are
, %
IPEC Strasbaugh SpeedFam SpeedFam-IPEC
Ebara Applied Materials Lam Research Others
October 10, 2002
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year
Nu
mb
er
Of
Un
its
010020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000
Re
ve
nu
e, $
Mill
ion
s
Tools Spindles Revenue
CMP Market Changes: 1995 - 2001
Transition From Single Spindle To Multiple Spindle UnitsTransition From Standalone Units To Dry-In Dry-Out SystemsIncorporation Of Onboard Or Inline Metrology On CMP SystemsAdvanced Carrier DesignsMore Sophisticated Control SystemsOverbuying in 1998 – 2000
October 10, 2002
CMP Revenue As A Percent Of CAPEX, WFE And Global Semiconductor Revenues (Adjusted)
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
Pe
rce
nt O
f C
AP
EX
, WF
E
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
Pe
rce
nt
Of
WW
Se
mic
on
du
cto
r R
ev
en
ue
Total Capital Expenditures
Wafer Fab Equipment
October 10, 2002
Global Semiconductor Revenue Trailing Twelve Month Growth Rate And Percent Change In Three Month Revenue Moving Average Vs. The Year Earlier
Comparable Period (Forecast)D
ec
-91
Ma
r-9
2J
un
-92
Se
p-9
2D
ec
-92
Ma
r-9
3J
un
-93
Se
p-9
3D
ec
-93
Ma
r-9
4J
un
-94
Se
p-9
4D
ec
-94
Ma
r-9
5J
un
-95
Se
p-9
5D
ec
-95
Ma
r-9
6J
un
-96
Se
p-9
6D
ec
-96
Ma
r-9
7J
un
-97
Se
p-9
7D
ec
-97
Ma
r-9
8J
un
-98
Se
p-9
8D
ec
-98
Ma
r-9
9J
un
-99
Se
p-9
9D
ec
-99
Ma
r-0
0J
un
-00
Se
p-0
0D
ec
-00
Ma
r-0
1J
un
-01
Se
p-0
1D
ec
-01
Ma
r-0
2J
un
-02
Se
p-0
2D
ec
-02
Ma
r-0
3J
un
-03
Se
p-0
3D
ec
-03
Ma
r-0
4J
un
-04
Se
p-0
4D
ec
-04
Ma
r-0
5J
un
-05
Se
p-0
5D
ec
-05
Ma
r-0
6J
un
-06
Se
p-0
6D
ec
-06
Ma
r-0
7J
un
-07
Se
p-0
7D
ec
-07
Ma
r-0
8J
un
-08
Se
p-0
8D
ec
-08
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Year
Red - 3 Month Moving Average vs. A Year EarlierBlue - Trailing 12 Month Rate Of Change
Forecast
Source: WSTS Data
October 10, 2002
Semiconductor Industry Revenues: History And Forecast
50.5 54.6 59.9
77.3
101.9
144.4132.0
125.6
149.4
204.4
136.1
249.6255.9
218.5
250.8
330.9
137.2 139.0
180.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
Year
Re
ven
ue,
$ B
illio
ns
October 10, 2002
CMP Equipment Markets: 1994-2008
63191
307
520638
1086
1519
983857
1299
2193
2021
1537
1717
2584
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Re
ve
nu
e, $
Mill
ion
s
October 10, 2002
CMP Spindle Shipments And Installed Base: 1994-2008(With 200mm Spindle Equivalents)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Sp
ind
le In
stal
led
Bas
e
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
New
Sp
ind
les
Sh
ipp
ed
200mm Equivalent Installed Base
Spindle Installed Base
New Spindles Shipped
200mm Equivalent Spindles Shipped
October 10, 2002
Summary Of CMP Market Segments: 1994 - 2008
Market Segments, $ Millions 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002CMP Equipment 63.0 191.3 307.4 520.1 638.4 1085.7 1518.7 982.8 857.0 200mm Cu CMP - - - 26.2 73.3 143.8 154.0 268.3 239.1 300mm Cu CMP - - - 0.0 0.0 8.9 17.0 105.3 178.2 Total Cu CMP - - - 26.2 73.3 152.7 171.1 373.6 417.3 Cu CMP Percent Of Total - - - 5.0% 11.5% 14.1% 11.3% 38.0% 48.7% Percent 300mm - - - - 0.9% 4.9% 9.9% 27.9% 42.6% 300mm CMP Equipment Revenue - - - - 5.6 53.1 150.0 274.3 364.8Slurry 17.1 39.0 63.7 111.9 160.6 217.1 328.7 330.0 408.1Pads & Fixturing 6.2 15.2 28.3 53.5 81.5 110.9 160.8 151.4 187.7Pad Conditioning Disks 2.2 5.6 10.4 19.9 30.3 41.3 59.9 56.8 70.7Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners 17.7 50.4 76.5 88.0 81.5 101.3 112.5 30.0 24.2CMP Metrology 12.5 37.5 60.4 88.7 107.2 176.6 243.7 141.3 136.7Other Consumables & Ancillaries 8.3 23.7 38.3 61.8 77.0 121.3 169.7 118.5 117.9Total CMP Markets 127.0 362.8 585.0 943.9 1176.6 1854.3 2594.1 1810.7 1802.5
Market Segments, $ Millions 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008CMP Equipment 982.8 857.0 1298.6 2193.1 2020.6 1536.7 1716.9 2583.9 200mm Cu CMP 268.3 239.1 311.4 458.8 365.3 245.9 254.2 345.3 300mm Cu CMP 105.3 178.2 369.6 702.2 704.0 557.5 678.2 1032.0 Total Cu CMP 373.6 417.3 681.0 1161.0 1069.3 803.4 932.4 1377.3 Cu CMP Percent Of Total 0.4 48.7% 52.4% 52.9% 52.9% 52.3% 54.3% 53.3% Percent 300mm 0.3 42.6% 54.1% 60.2% 65.8% 69.5% 72.5% 74.9% 300mm CMP Equipment Revenue 274.3 364.8 702.8 1320.8 1329.1 1067.9 1245.4 1935.8Slurry 330.0 408.1 514.3 653.3 786.1 887.6 966.5 1068.0Pads & Fixturing 151.4 187.7 238.7 288.8 340.5 370.6 389.4 413.2Pad Conditioning Disks 56.8 70.7 90.0 110.0 130.7 142.8 150.3 160.8Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners 30.0 24.2 34.9 55.7 49.6 36.4 40.0 58.4CMP Metrology 141.3 136.7 210.9 364.7 346.9 272.3 313.3 488.4Other Consumables & Ancillaries 118.5 117.9 167.1 256.6 257.2 227.2 250.3 334.1Total CMP Markets 1810.7 1802.5 2554.5 3922.1 3931.5 3473.6 3826.7 5106.7
October 10, 2002
Distribution Of CMP Revenues By Segment
2002 CMP Segment Shares
CMP Equipment47.5%
Slurry22.6%
Pads & Fixturing10.4%
Pad Conditioning Disks3.9%
Other Consumables & Ancillaries
6.5%
CMP Metrology7.6%
Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners
1.3%
2004 CMP Segment Shares
Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners
1.4%
CMP Metrology9.3%
Other Consumables & Ancillaries
6.5%
Pad Conditioning Disks2.8%
Pads & Fixturing7.4%
Slurry16.7%
CMP Equipment55.9%
2000 CMP Segment Shares
CMP Equipment58.5%
Slurry12.7%
Pads & Fixturing6.2%
Pad Conditioning Disks2.3%
Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners
4.3%
Other Consumables & Ancillaries
6.5%
CMP Metrology9.4%
1998 CMP Segment Shares
CMP Equipment54.3%
Other Consumables & Ancillaries
6.5%
Slurry13.7%
Pads & Fixturing6.9%
Pad Conditioning Disks2.6%
Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners
6.9%
CMP Metrology9.1%
October 10, 2002
US CMP Related Patents Issued By Geographic Region Of Assignee
1995 - 308 Patents
North America
192 - 62.3%
Japan84 - 27.3%
Singapore1 - 0.3%
Europe13 - 4.2%
Korea3 - 1.0%
Taiwan15 - 4.9%
1997 - 629 Patents
ROW3 - 0.5%
North America
342 - 54.4%Japan175 - 27.8%
Singapore13 - 2.1%
Europe20 - 3.2%
Korea25 - 4.0%
Taiwan51 - 8.1%
2000 - 1449 Patents
ROW1 - 0.1%
North America
711- 49.1%
Japan261 - 18.0%
Singapore40 - 2.8%
Europe53 - 3.7%
Korea48 - 3.3%
Taiwan335 - 23.1%
2001 - 1890 Patents
Japan370 - 19.3%
Europe90 - 4.7%
Korea81 - 4.2%
Taiwan360 - 18.8%
ROW5 - 0.3%
Singapore77 - 4.0%
North America
935 - 48.7%
October 10, 2002
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Number Of Patents
Micron TechnologiesTSMC Group (Taiwan)
Advanced Micro DevicesUMC Group (Taiwan)
IBMNEC
Chartered SemiconductorApplied Materials
ToshibaAgere Systems/Lucent
SamsungSpeedFam-IPEC
Infineon Technologies/SiemensPhilips Group
Lam ResearchEbara
Hyundai Electronics Mitsubishi Denki
Texas InstrumentsLSI Logic
HitachiMotorola
RodelIntel
Fujitsu
2001 US CMP Related Patents By Company
1890 CMP Related Patents In 2001757 Patents By All Other Companies
October 10, 2002
Distribution Of 2001 CMP Patents
Micron Technologies9.2%
TSMC Group (Taiwan)9.0%
Advanced Micro Devices
8.1%
UMC Group (Taiwan)7.7%
IBM7.7%
All Others40.1%
Samsung2.3%
Agere Systems/Lucent Technologies
2.3%Toshiba
3.0% Applied Materials3.3%
Chartered Semiconductor
3.5%
NEC3.8%
1890 CMP Related Patents In 2001
October 10, 2002
US CMP Related Patents Issued In 2001 By Type Of Assignee
Academia1.3%
Government Lab1.1% Inventors
0.9%
Wafer Suppliers1.8%
Service & Support0.2%
Consumables Supplier 4.6%
Equipment Suppler12.5%
Foundry20.7%
Semiconductor Company
56.8%
October 10, 2002
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Number Of US Patents Issued In 2001
Tools And Major Modules
Endpointing
Pad Conditioning
Control Systems/Automation
CMP Tools
Carriers
Slurry Mixing/Dispensing
Cleaning Tools
Retaining Rings
Waste Management
CMP Related Apparatus Patents
October 10, 2002
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Number Of US Patents Issued In 2001
Slurries/Abrasives
Pads
Fixed Abrasives
Cleaning Chemistries
End Effectors
Filters/Brushes
CMP Related Consumables Patents
October 10, 2002
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Number Of US Patents Issued In 2001
Interconnects
Cu Interconnects
Memory/Memory Cells
Flash/NVM
Transistors
Capacitors
STI Process
Damascene Process
Dual Damascene
Contacts/Plugs/Vias
Low k Dielectrics
Gates/Gate Electrodes
Trench Isolation
SOI
CMP Related Process Patents
October 10, 2002
Electrolytic Planarization Patents Issued By Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
Nu
mb
er O
f D
ocu
me
nts Issued Patents Published Applications
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number Of Issued US Patents
ECD/EPOL
EPOL
ECMP
ECMD
ECD
CLUSTER
ECMP/ECMD
SPIN/ETCH
EPOL/ECMD
PECP
Electrolytic Planarization Patents By Category
Electrolytic Processes Used For Planarization
October 10, 2002
Cluster Tool Approach – Copper Metallization Module
ECD
ECD
ECD
CMP
Rinse/Dry
Robot
Load/Lock
Metrology
Passivation Layer
Deposition
Robot
CMP Modules
Cu ECD Modules
Load/Unload
Post-ECDClean
Post-CMPClean
DryingChambers
SurfaceActivationChamber
Applied Materials Concept Ebara Concept
October 10, 2002
Electrolytically Assisted CMP
Kobe Seiko US patent 4839005 issued on June 13, 1989
TSMC US patent 5575706 issued November 19, 1996
Wafer
SlurryPolishing Pad
Conductive Grid
IBM US patent 5807165 issued on September 15, 1998
Micron Technology US patent 6010964 issued on January 4, 2000
October 10, 2002
CMP Tool GenerationsT
oo
l G
ener
atio
n
Time Period
Wa
fer
Siz
e,
mm
Kin
em
ati
cs
Th
rou
gh
pu
t,
wp
h
Ca
rrie
r T
ech
no
log
y
To
ol
Pro
ces
s
Cap
abili
ty
Met
rolo
gy
1 1984-1994
100-200 Rotary 10 Fixed Plate
Dry-In Wet-Out 1 Step CMP + Buff Clean
Single Wafer 10mm Edge Exclusion
Motor Current EPD
2 1993-1999
125-200 Rotary Orbital
Carousel 20
Fixed Plate Back Pressure
Active Retaining Ring
Dry-In Wet-Out 1 Step CMP + Buff Clean
Multiple Wafers 6mm Edge Exclusion
Motor Current EPD In Line Optical Metrology
3 1998-2003
200-300 Rotary Orbital Linear
35 Active Retaining Ring
Membrane Backing
Dry-In Dry-Out Multiple Step+Buff Clean
Multiple Wafers 3mm Edge Exclusion
In Line Optical Metrology Run-To-Run Control In-situ Optical EPD
Acoustic Monitor EPD Chemiluminescence EPD
4 2001- 200-300
Rotary Orbital Linear
Elliptical
50
Active Retaining RingMembrane Backing
Zone Pressure Control
Dry-In Dry-Out Multiple Step+Buff Clean
Multiple Wafers ≤2mm Edge Exclusion
In Line Optical Metrology Adaptive Process Control
Coefficient Of Friction EPD In-situ Optical EPD
Acoustic Emission EPD Chemiluminescence EPD
Eddy Current EPD
5 2003- 300
Rotary Orbital Linear
Elliptical
50
Active Retaining RingMembrane Backing
Zone Pressure Control
Dry-In Dry-Out Multiple Step+Buff Clean
Multiple Wafers ≤2mm Edge Exclusion
Integration With Electroplating Module And
Rapid Thermal Anneal Electrically Enhanced CMP
In Line Optical Metrology Adaptive Process Control
Coefficient Of Friction EPD In-situ Optical EPD
Acoustic Emission EPD Chemiluminescence EPD
Eddy Current EPD
October 10, 2002
Conclusions
CMP Market Segments Have Been Severely Impacted During The Current Downturn
Consumables Segments And Leading Edge Technology Have Been Impacted By The Downturn To A Lesser Degree
Market Share Rankings Remained Unchanged During 2001
CMP Market Segments Will Grow At The Same Rate As The Overall Equipment Market Going Forward
Growth Rates For Semiconductor Revenues Are Slowing While Technology Becomes More Complex And Challenging
ECMP, ECD or Electropolishing Technologies Have The Potential ToReshape The Equipment And Consumables Markets For Planarization Of Advanced Interconnect Structures