¿(¿(CómoCómo) ) PuedenPuedenlaslas FinanzasFinanzas dede CarbonoCarbonolaslas FinanzasFinanzas de de CarbonoCarbono

ContribuirContribuir a un a un TransporteTransporte SustentableSustentable??

Sergio SanchezSergio SanchezClean Air Institute, Inc.Clean Air Institute, Inc.

PanamaPanama25 de 25 de juniojunio de 2009de 2009

El Instituto de Aire LimpioEl Instituto de Aire Limpio

O i ió i fi d l d• Organización sin fines de lucro con sede en Washington DC.

• Desde 2006, a cargo de la coordinación de la Iniciativa de Aire Limpio para Ciudadesla Iniciativa de Aire Limpio para Ciudades de América (CAI-LAC)

• CAI-LAC es una alianza de gobiernos nacionales y estatales, municipalidades, sector privado, organizaciones no gubernamentales, universidades y agencias de desarrollo internacional trabajando juntos para:trabajando juntos para:

• Propiciar la mitigación del cambio climático y la mejora de la calidad del aire para proteger la salud y elevar el bienestar de la población.

Mensajes Clave

• La acción climática está incompleta si no atiende al sector transporteatiende al sector transporte.

• El CDM no está bien habilitado como un instrumento financiero para el sectorinstrumento financiero para el sector.

• Se requiere de nuevas estrategias para que las finanzas de carbono hagan unalas finanzas de carbono hagan una contribución signficativa para reducir las emisiones del sector transporte.

Evolución de las Emisiones de Gases deEvolución de las Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero en la Historia Reciente

1992:1992: 200520051992: 1992: UNFCCCUNFCCC

2005: 2005: Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Retos del Transporte SustentableRetos del Transporte Sustentable

Crecimiento Económico

Servicios de

co ó co

Impactos en Transporte

pel transporte

ImpactosImpactos Ambientales,

Sociaes y EconómicosEconómicos

Contribución del Transporte a las Contribución del Transporte a las Emisiones Mundiales de Gases de Emisiones Mundiales de Gases de Ef t I dEf t I dEfecto InvernaderoEfecto Invernadero

• El transporte representa 13% de todas las emisiones de GEI a nivel mundial.

• 23% de las emisiones de CO2 generadas por la quema de combustibles provienen del transportequema de combustibles provienen del transporte– Transporte terrestre (tanto de pasajeros como de

carga) - 75%, g )– Aviación -11.5%, – Marítimo -10.3%.

• Emissions are expected to increase 57% world wide in the period 2005 –2030.

How much does it cost to achieveHow much does it cost to achieveHow much does it cost to achieve How much does it cost to achieve global goals?global goals?

• To get global emissions in 2030 back to today’s levels, the additional investment and financial flows (I&FF) required are estimated to be around US$200-210 billion. Th ill i hl 80• The transport sector will require roughly 80 billion USD – around 42-44% of this I&FF-(UNFCCC 2007)(UNFCCC 2007).

The Latin American The Latin American and Caribbean Regionand Caribbean Region

• 556 million inhabitants – 175 million in 1950

• 1.3% growth rate in 2006.g• Outlook 2030:

• 175 million people in addition living in urban areas.living in urban areas.

• 9 /10 of population living in cities (4/10 in 1950 and 7.5/10 in 2000)

• Triple-size vehicle fleet compared• Triple size vehicle fleet compared to current level.

• Double energy use (most growth linked to transport sector)linked to transport sector)

Casi 315 millones de personas Casi 315 millones de personas habitan en áreas urbanas con más habitan en áreas urbanas con más de 100 mil habitantesde 100 mil habitantes

Tamaño de área urbana No de Porcentaje de laTamaño de área urbana (habitantes)

No. de ciudades

Porcentaje de la población

Más de 5 millones 7 20

De 1 millón a 10 millones 54 39

De medio millón a un millón 67 16

Entre 100 mil y 500 mil 384 25

MotorizaciónMotorizaciónMotorizaciónMotorización• Más de 4.5 millones de automóviles vendidos en América Latina

en el 2007en el 2007.

Número de autos por cada 1000 habitantes

Source: "2008 Global Market Data Book", Automotive News, p. 5

¿Hacia dónde vamos?¿Hacia dónde vamos?Posesión de Vehículos Proyectada al 2050

3,000

3,500 Other AfricaSouth AfricaOther LABrazil

Middle East

2,000

2,500

Middle EastIndiaOther AsiaChinaEastern EuropeAsian TERussia

1,000

1,500

KoreaJapanAustralia and NZOther OECD EuropeUKItalyGermany

0

500

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

GermanyFranceUSAMexicoCanada

Source: IEA

Las ventas de autos yLas ventas de autos yLas ventas de autos y Las ventas de autos y camiones ligeros han camiones ligeros han

florecido florecido • Brasil

– 2 46 millones de nuevos– 2.46 millones de nuevos vehículos vendidos en el 2007, un nuevo record

– 2.88 millones de nuevos vehículos en el 2008, un aumento del 17%

• Perú– Un incremento del 55

porciento en nuevos vehículos vendidos en el 2007 s 2006

Source: Automotive News; Mexican Automotive Manufacturers Association2007 vs. 2006

L A l (1953) Chi (2008)Los Angeles (1953) Chicago (2008)

Sao Paulo Ciudad de MéxicoSao Paulo Ciudad de México

Car accidents are growing upCar accidents are growing upCar accidents are growing upCar accidents are growing up• 1999, 23 - 34 million people

i j d i d hwere injured in road crashes worldwide (underestimated).

• Road crashes may be costing closer to 2 per cent of GNPcloser to 2 per cent of GNP per annum.

• Global cost in 1998: ~ US$520billion.

• Cost in the LMC regions: ~ US$65 billion.

• People killed in road crashes i th d l i ldin the developing world continues to increase.

The World Bank, DFID (UK) and TRL.

Source: Composed from various cities data compiled by the World Bank.

La participación del transporte La participación del transporte público está disminuyendopúblico está disminuyendopúblico está disminuyendopúblico está disminuyendo

Añ

Transporte Público como % de los i j Añ

Transporte Público como % de los i j

CiudadAños previos

viajes motorizados

Años recientes

viajes motorizados

Bangkok 1970 53 1990 39

Buenos Aires 1993 49 1999 33

Kuala Lumpur 1985 34 1997 19

Mexico City 1984 80 1994 72

Moscow 1990 87 1997 83

S P l 1977 46 1997 33Sao Paulo 1977 46 1997 33

Seoul 1970 67 1992 61

Tokyo 1970 65 1990 48Tokyo 1970 65 1990 48

Shanghai 1986 24 1995 15

Warsaw 1987 80 1998 53

Hacia dónde vamos?Hacia dónde vamos?Línea Base de Consumo de Combutibles

140 0

160.0

180.0

ay

Transport

Non-transport2030

2050

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

arre

ls p

er d

a

Synfuels

Biofuels

2005

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

mill

ion

b

Processing gains

Shale oil

Oil sands

0.0

By sour

ceBy s

ector

By sour

ceBy s

ector

By sour

ceBy s

ector

Arctic/deep water

Conv. oil (other)

Conv. oil (OPEC)

By By

By By

By By

Source: IEA

Tendencias deTendencias de Infraestructura Global

• El gasto en infraestructura de transporte está en un boom• El gasto en infraestructura de transporte está en un boom a nivel mundial– La mayor parte del gasto se destina principalmente a

infraestructira vial• Por ejemplo, alrededor de un 80% de los préstamos del Banco

Mundial se destinan a carreteras.– Transporte Urbano Sustentable e infraestructura vial urbana están

incluidas como parte de la categorpia “Transoirte General” eneral Transport” categoryTransport category

S h ldSource: The World Bank

Future policies to limit GHGFuture policies to limit GHGFuture policies to limit GHG Future policies to limit GHG emissions in the transport sectoremissions in the transport sector

• Will have to consist of a combination of measures aimed:

A idi d i th f t d t– Avoiding, or reducing the future need to travel. This can be best achieved by the integration of land use and transport;g p

– Shifting travel to the most efficient mode, which in most cases will be either non-motorized or public transport;motorized or public transport;

– Improving existing forms of transport through technological improvements to g g pmake engines and fuels less carbon intensive. engine technology and fuels

Porque necesitamos instrumentos de finanzas de

carbono mejorados?j• Para crear incentivos a la inversión en

proyectos de bajo carbono tales como :proyectos de bajo carbono, tales como :– Sistemas de Transporte Público– Transporte No MotorizadoTransporte No Motorizado– Gestión de la demanda– Planeación del uso del suelo y transporte– Mejora de la gestión del transporte de carga– Vehículos y Combustibles Más Limpios

Improve public transportation– Reorganize network layoutReorganize network layout – High capacity modes on trunk

corridors– Intra- & inter-modal service

integration

Innovative transport systems Innovative transport systems are expanding in the LAC are expanding in the LAC

RegionRegionRegionRegion

Promotion of non-motorized transport– Promote bike use– Promote bike use – Finance bikeways and pedestrian

facilitiesPromote intermodality NMT & public– Promote intermodality NMT & public transport

Cycling programs and Cycling programs and promisingly expandingpromisingly expanding

Public space is being Public space is being recoveredrecovered

Travel demand management– Trip reduction strategies– Traffic calming– Parking policiesg p– Pricing

Integrated transport, land use and air quality strategiesand air quality strategies– Promote high-density land use along

public transport corridors – Prevent urban sprawl– Prevent urban sprawl– Revitalize urban centers

Emission Control Measures• Vehicle technology• Fuel quality• Inspectionp• Maintenance

Transport and CDM

• Transportation was set as a priority sector of CDM by the Conference of the Parties 10 (COP 10), 3 ft COP 10 t t i t ll• 3 years after COP 10, transport is not well represented in the CDM project portfolio.

• As April 2008, nearly 600 CDM projects wereAs April 2008, nearly 600 CDM projects were registered by the UNFCC, but only one was a transport project (the Transmilenio in Bogotá and Metro in Delhi)Metro in Delhi).

Challenges to Using ExistingChallenges to Using Existing CDM for Transport

• Must “reinvent the wheel” for every project– Each project has unique baseline and monitoring

requirements– Establishing baselines and additionality and

obtaining good data are major challengesobtaining good data are major challenges

• Impact of individual CDM transport projects is relatively smallrelatively small

• Bottom line: “High risk / low return”Bottom line: High risk / low return• High transaction costs but low revenue potential

Need a New Vision for CarbonNeed a New Vision for Carbon Finance in Transportation

• Elements– Comprehensive

• Widely used for public transport, NMT, cleaner fuels and vehicles, demand management, land use changes, etc.

– AttractiveAttractive• Low transaction cost, high return

– Rewarding• Greater recognition for success

– Promote innovation• Incentives for new ideas improved cost/benefit ratios• Incentives for new ideas, improved cost/benefit ratios,

etc.

Towards a new carbon financeTowards a new carbon financeTowards a new carbon finance Towards a new carbon finance strategy for transport (1)strategy for transport (1)

• Enhance the current CDM process by:– broadening its scope, – Simplifying and improving data collection,– Finding innovative ways to demonstrate

additionality such as use of the “first of its kind”additionality, such as use of the “first of its kind” approach.

– Facilitating development of methodologies for g p gProgram of Activities.

– Strengthening expertise to facilitate the th d l i d / j t lmethodologies and programs/project approval

process.

Towards a new carbon financeTowards a new carbon financeTowards a new carbon finance Towards a new carbon finance strategy for transport (2)strategy for transport (2)• Develop effective new instruments /

approaches for post-2012 (reformed CDM, sectoral crediting, etc.) that: – Are specific to the transport sector, rather than of

broad applicabilitybroad applicability. – Account for co-benefits.– Can be integrated into city transportation and landCan be integrated into city transportation and land

use plans (as opposed to requiring a separate, project-specific process)

• Ensure proper incorporation of the transport sector into NAMA’s.

Special funding for transportSpecial funding for transport and climate change

• A dedicated line of funding is needed to:support to develop and evaluate policy programs– support to develop and evaluate policy, programs and projects.

– incorporate climate change mitigation and other p g gco-benefit considerations into regional planning

– Provide technical assistance and know-how oriented trainingoriented training.

– Develop capacities and tools for measuring and reporting.p g

But major barriers need to be overcomeBut major barriers need to be overcomeBut major barriers need to be overcome But major barriers need to be overcome to speed up the changeto speed up the change

• There are important barriers that need to be overcome if we are to succeed in moving on to more sustainable transport patterns.sustainable transport patterns.

• Nations and cities need support to overcome substantial barriers, by

l d l f k– Developing visions and policy frameworks, – developing more integrated programs,– strengthening and integrating transport agencies and land-g g g g p g

use planning agencies, and– Overcoming institutional fragmentation by improving

mechanisms between transport, environment and urban p ,planning.

• Contact information– Sergio Sánchez– Instituto de Aire Limpio– ssanchez@cleanairinstitute.org

( )– 1 (202) 785 4222 x 30