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Copyright 2012, Trepp, LLC EDR's Annual Property Due Diligence Summit May 16, 2012 CMBS and CRE Briefing

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Page 1: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Copyright 2012, Trepp, LLC

EDR's Annual Property Due Diligence Summit

May 16, 2012

CMBS and CRE Briefing

Page 2: CMBS and CRE Briefing

2

Sources of Commercial Real Estate Debt

• CMBS (Securitization)• Life Insurance Companies• Commercial Banks• Credit Unions• Government• Private Equity

─ Recovering─ Peaking─ Recovering─ Emerging─ Over-heated─ Active

Page 3: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Obstacles to Financing

3

Source: National Association of Realtors, 2011 Survey

Page 4: CMBS and CRE Briefing

4

Capital Markets

Page 5: CMBS and CRE Briefing

5

Real Estate in the Capital Markets

• CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Security)

– Securitization of CRE loans, organized a passive investment pool in a REMIC

• REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust)

– Shares in a company which holds either debt or equity in commercial real estate as actively managed investments

– Shares can be public (exchange traded) or private (non-exchange)• CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligation)

– Securities backed by various types of debt on real estate

– Adopted because “CDO” is a bad word• NPL (Non-Performing Loan)

– Securities used to finance distressed asset pools

– Liquidating trust where all proceeds go to bondholders

Page 6: CMBS and CRE Briefing

6

U.S. CMBS Market Overview

• Forecast for 2012 projects new issues up to $50 billion.

• Backlog of matured loans continues to grow

• Secondary trading remains active and has recovered from summer 2011 disruption

• Loans continue to pay off

• Collateral performance is poor with delinquency rates near record levels

• Regional differences in collateral performance remain significant

Page 7: CMBS and CRE Briefing

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U.S. CMBS Secondary Market Spreads

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 8: CMBS and CRE Briefing

8

Spreads for New Commercial Real Estate Loans

Compiled from a survey of institutional lenders. Copyright, 2010, Trepp, LLC, all rights reserved.

Trepp Real Estate Portfolio Pricing Index (TREPP-i™)Indicative Spreads for Commercial Real Estate Loans vs. Treasury

(50-59% Leverage, Amortizing, 10 year, fixed rate)

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 9: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Loan Payoff Activity

9

Page 10: CMBS and CRE Briefing

10

CMBS 2.0 Primary Market Activity

2010• $12.7 billion

– (16 deals)• $6.4 billion in Freddie

Mac– (6 deals)

2011• $29.9billion

– (27 deals)• $13.7 billion by Freddie Mac

– (12 deals)• $395 million by FDIC

– (1 deal)

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 11: CMBS and CRE Briefing

CMBS 2.0 U.S. Primary Market Activity

11

2012* • $7.5 billion

– (11 deals)• $6.5 billion by Freddie Mac

– (5 deals)• $4 billion pricing for May

– (4 deals)

*(as of 4/30/12)

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 12: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Selling Non-performing Assets

The What• $132,000,000 of certificates

• Sold at 99.75%• Coupon of 4.75%

• Secured by• 320 assets with• $224 MM carrying value• $569 MM unpaid balance

The Why• Leverage• Return boosted from mid 20% to

high 30%

The How• Single class of notes• Fast-pay, 100% cash sweep• Reserves

Page 13: CMBS and CRE Briefing

13

Commercial Real EstateMarket Performance

Page 14: CMBS and CRE Briefing

14

Commercial Real Estate Bear Markets

Sources: Trepp LLC, Moody’s, NCREIF, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Period Decline DurationTime to Recover

1929 to 1933 -44% 4 years 8 years

1941 to 1943 -42% 2 years 2 years

1989 to 1993 -32% 4 years 10 years

1999 to 2002 -4% 3 years 2 years

2007 to Present

REITs: -35%Direct: -45%

3 years in Top 6

5 + yrs others?

Major Value Decline – Prospect is a Long Recovery

Page 15: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Annual Sales Volume office, industrial, retail, apartments, hotels and dev sites

2012

Pro

ject

ed

2011 Year in Review

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Page 16: CMBS and CRE Briefing

2011 Year in Review: Top Markets

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Page 17: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Buyer Composition

Past Five Years

2011 By Property Type

2011 By Market Size

2007

User/Other Private Public Equity Fund Inst'l Cross-Border

11%

16%

11%

4%

8%

14%

5%

19%

7%

6%

8%

34%

38%

55%

49%

34%

24%

30%

33%

49%

28%

56%

27%

39%

49%

19%

18%

7%

10%

10%

15%

32%

16%

13%

35%

11%

21%

17%

13%

17%

13%

6%

10%

25%

15%

14%

27%

14%

17%

16%

16%

21%

14%

13%

10%

13%

20%

21%

8%

9%

16%

11%

6%

16%

15%

7%

9%

7%

6%

6%

7%

18%

9%

5%

8%

12%

7%

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Office

Industrial

Retail

Apartment

Hotel

Dev Site

Major Metro

Secondary

Tertiary

Buyer Composition

Past Five Years

2011 By Property Type

2011 By Market Size

2007

User/Other Private Public Equity Fund Inst'l Cross-Border

11%

16%

11%

4%

8%

14%

5%

19%

7%

6%

8%

34%

38%

55%

49%

34%

24%

30%

33%

49%

28%

56%

27%

39%

49%

19%

18%

7%

10%

10%

15%

32%

16%

13%

35%

11%

21%

17%

13%

17%

13%

6%

10%

25%

15%

14%

27%

14%

17%

16%

16%

21%

14%

13%

10%

13%

20%

21%

8%

9%

16%

11%

6%

16%

15%

7%

9%

7%

6%

6%

7%

18%

9%

5%

8%

12%

7%

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Office

Industrial

Retail

Apartment

Hotel

Dev Site

Major Metro

Secondary

Tertiary

Equity Capital

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Page 18: CMBS and CRE Briefing

18

U.S. CMBS Retail Performance by Market

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 19: CMBS and CRE Briefing

19

U.S. CMBS Collateral Performance

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 20: CMBS and CRE Briefing

20Source: Trepp, LLC

U.S. CMBS Collateral Performance

Page 21: CMBS and CRE Briefing

21

U.S. CMBS Delinquency Rates: Significance of Regional Variation

10.82%

9.88%

8.46%14.57%

5.81%

10.249%

7.16%

9.29%11.19%

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 22: CMBS and CRE Briefing

22

Performance Comparison: CMBS and Commercial Mortgages Held by Commercial Banks

Sources: Trepp, FFIEC, Foresight Analytics

Page 23: CMBS and CRE Briefing

23

Performance Comparison: CMBS and Bank Loans (Income Properties)

Sources: Trepp, FFIEC, Foresight Analytics

Delinquency Rate (30+ Days Past Due)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 09 1Q 10 3Q 10 1Q 11p

Quarter

CMBS (Ex Pro-forma Loans) >= $100 Bn $10 Bn to $100 Bn $1 Bn to $10 Bn $100 Mn to $1 Bn

Page 24: CMBS and CRE Briefing

24

Opportunities

Page 25: CMBS and CRE Briefing

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Growth in Defaults

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 26: CMBS and CRE Briefing

26

Increased Backlog of Matured Loans

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 27: CMBS and CRE Briefing

27

Cumulative Size of Matured Loan Backlog

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 28: CMBS and CRE Briefing

28

Additional Opportunities in Maturing CMBS Loans

Source: Trepp, LLC

Page 29: CMBS and CRE Briefing

29

Aggregate Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Maturities

Source: Foresight Analytics

Page 30: CMBS and CRE Briefing

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Residential Loan Performance

Sources: FDIC

Page 31: CMBS and CRE Briefing

31

Residential Loan Performance

Sources: FDIC

Page 32: CMBS and CRE Briefing

Stress in the Bank Market

Forecast Bank Failures and Cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund in Four Scenarios(As of 4Q 2011)

Cost to Deposit Insurance Fund ($ Billion)

Scenario # of Failures* Low High

Deep Recession 514 $71.8 $107.6Moderate Recession 364 $29.3 $44.0Moderate Growth 196 $10.6 $15.9Strong Growth 131 $5.8 $8.8

* Critically Undercapitalized Banks in 2-year scenario forecast

Source: Trepp Bank Navigator

Page 33: CMBS and CRE Briefing

RialtoNon-Performing Loan Trust

Transaction Briefing

Appendix A

33

Page 34: CMBS and CRE Briefing

34

Briefing Call -- Agenda

1. Parties to the transaction2. History3. Structure of the deal4. Collateral scenario5. Economics of the deal6. Market response7. Future applications

4/19/2012

Page 35: CMBS and CRE Briefing

35

Parties to the Transaction

• Seller: Rialto Real Estate Fund• Asset Manager: Rialto Capital Advisors• Sponsor: Rialto Capital Management• Underwriters: JP Morgan / Wells Fargo• Trustee: Wells Fargo• Cash Manager: Berkadia Commercial Mortgage• Rialto companies are subsidiaries of Lennar

Corporation (NYSE: LEN)

4/19/2012

Page 36: CMBS and CRE Briefing

36

History

• Rialto Capital formed in 2007 to purchase non-performing and distressed Commercial Real Estate assets

• Purchased $5.2 billion of assets from 9 sellers in 2 years

• Rialto Real Estate Fund (“RREF”) closed in November, 2011

• RREF issued the Notes to increase capital and to leverage return on distressed assets

4/19/2012

Page 37: CMBS and CRE Briefing

37

Structure – Transaction Basics

RREF ($224 MM Basis)

RREF 2012 LT1, LLC $132,000,000 Notes

Distressed Sellers

Institutional Investors

Sell Loans and REO

Deposits AssetsSells Notes

Buys Notes

4/19/2012

Page 38: CMBS and CRE Briefing

38

Structure – Basic Waterfall

Simplified Cash Flow

Collections On Assets

Pay Servicing, Trustee and Asset Management Fees

Pay Interest on Notes

Replenish Reserves

Retire Notes

Working Capital

Reserve

Interest Reserve

4/19/2012

Page 39: CMBS and CRE Briefing

39

Collateral Scenario

• Seasoned Portfolio• Recovery based on property type

– 21 distinct property types

– Lowest recovery (% of balance) is 3.4%

– Highest recovery is 100%

– Average recovery is 66.8%• Estimated that recoveries will retire all notes within 2 years

4/19/2012

Page 40: CMBS and CRE Briefing

40

Economics

• Rialto– Add leverage to private equity fund

– Defers cash flow on investment, but

– Boosts returns from mid 20% to mid 30%

– Increases capital available for investment• Investors

– Increased return (almost 5%) in a low interest environment

– Rapid pay out

– No lingering credit risk

4/19/2012

Page 41: CMBS and CRE Briefing

41

Market Reaction

• Rating agencies supportive– Fitch BBB-(sf)

– Moody’s Baa3(sf)• Investors interested

– Active interest in analytics

– 9x oversubscribed

– Several orders for entire deal

4/19/2012

Page 42: CMBS and CRE Briefing

42

Future Applications

• Rialto plans more transactions• Distressed asset buyers plan could increase returns• Banks could bolster capital with REO financing• Government insurance funds could replenish themselves with

troubled asset financing

4/19/2012

Page 43: CMBS and CRE Briefing

CMBS Background

Appendix B

43

Page 44: CMBS and CRE Briefing

44

CMBS – A Brief (Modern) History

• Created in Response to Savings & Loan Crisis• First Used to Finance Resolution Trust Corporation

(“RTC”) Assets• Adapted to Seasoned Pools and Newly Originated

Loans in early 1990’s• Full-fledged, Stand-alone Asset Class by Late 1990’s

Page 45: CMBS and CRE Briefing

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Key Features of CMBS

• Debt securities • Collateralized by the principal and interest generated

by a static pool of commercial mortgage loans• Tranched (Multiple classes) • Tranches are sequential pay instruments, with the

most senior tranche paid first

Page 46: CMBS and CRE Briefing

46

CMBS Sequential Pay Structure

46

Collateral Pool

Investment GradeAAA (Includes IO)

AAA

BBB

Below InvestmentGrade

BB to NR

Cashflow

Losses

PrincipalInterest

Page 47: CMBS and CRE Briefing

47

Parties in a CMBS Deal

• Issuer: Owns the loans and owes the bonds• Master Servicer: Collects loan payments and

manages reporting• Special Servicer: Deals with troubled assets• Trustee: Represents investors and handles cash for

the bonds • B-Piece Investor: Owns riskiest CMBS bonds and has

consultation rights• Senior Investor: Owns the AAA bonds

Page 48: CMBS and CRE Briefing

48

Data Reporting Structure

Idealized Data Flow

Borrowers Borrowers Borrowers

Subservicer

Master ServicerSpecial

Servicer

Trustee

Investor

Reports

Trepp

Investors

Investors

Investors

Page 49: CMBS and CRE Briefing

49

Trepp Company Overview

Page 50: CMBS and CRE Briefing

5050

Introduction to Trepp, LLC

• Trepp is the leading provider of analytics, information and technology to the global CMBS and commercial mortgage finance and banking industries

• Founded in 1979 with a 30 year history in structured finance focusing on CMBS and CRE the past 15 years

• Headquartered in New York City with offices in San Francisco, CA and London, UK

• Acquired Foresight Analytics in March of 2010, and Investcap in 2011 to expand commercial real estate and banking footprints

• Trepp is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG Information, which is a part of the Daily Mail Group, a multi-billion pound media company based in Britain

Page 51: CMBS and CRE Briefing

51

our Clients

Over 650 Firms worldwide rely on Trepp’s products and services

Trepp Product

Suite

Insurance Companies

Opportunity Funds

Broker/DealersRating AgenciesGovernment AgenciesInstitutional

InvestorsThird Parties /

Software companies

Page 53: CMBS and CRE Briefing

53

about CMBS

• Widely recognized as the market standard for information and analytics to the global CMBS industry

• Largest commercially available database containing more than 100,000 loans which support close to $800 billion in securities

• Deal coverage includes North American, European, and Asian CMBS as well as Commercial Real Estate backed CDOs

• Products and services are used to support trading, research, risk management, surveillance and portfolio management

• Selected by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the collateral monitor for TALF Lending Program

• Industry thought leaders and active participant in all major industry associations

Page 54: CMBS and CRE Briefing

54

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Powered by Trepp

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Page 55: CMBS and CRE Briefing

5555

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Page 56: CMBS and CRE Briefing

56

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Page 57: CMBS and CRE Briefing

57

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read

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asis

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Multi Family

Office

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Industrial/Warehouse

Hotel / Lodging

for Valuations

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commercial mortgages

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Page 58: CMBS and CRE Briefing

58

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Page 59: CMBS and CRE Briefing

59

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Page 60: CMBS and CRE Briefing

60

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Page 61: CMBS and CRE Briefing

61

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Page 62: CMBS and CRE Briefing

62

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Page 63: CMBS and CRE Briefing

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