1

HMNDP Special Issue-Weather

and Climate Extremes)

Climate Risk Management - Current

Issues and Challenges

2

Drought: a continuum and an adaptation deficit

Droughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scales

Impacts result from a number of complex variables

30 DAYS

1 SEASON

Heat Waves

Floods

Storm Track Variations

Madden-Julian

Oscillation

El Niño-Southern

Oscillation++++++

3 YEARS

10 YEARS

Decadal Variability

Solar Variability

Deep Ocean

Circulation

Greenhouse Gases

30 YEARS

100 YEARS

SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-

CENTURY

?

“The “last mile” is by far the

longest…”

Underpinning

Science and Data

Risk Assessment

Warnings Tools

Communication/

Dissemination

Response

Sub-Saharan

Africa South Asia Caribbean

Gaps in science for

drought & landslides,

vulnerability & exposure

Gaps in science for

floods & droughts,

vulnerability & exposure

Generally, systems in

place for main hazards

but some gaps

Generally, systems in

place for main hazards

but some gaps

Considerable gaps in

data availability and

monitoring

Some systems in place

but major gaps,

particularly for flooding

Generally, systems in

place for main hazards

but some gaps

Major gaps in

communication to the

most vulnerable

Major gaps in

communication to the

most vulnerable

Information (risk

assessments/warnings)

does not always lead to

action

Information (risk

assessments&warnings

) does not always lead

to action

Information (risk

assessments&warning)

does not always lead to

action

Ranger et al 2013,14)

Partnerships are essential: MUTUAL PRIORITIES supported, leveraged

and pursued-A “National Framework” exercise for the GFCS?

Monitoring &

Prediction

Interdisciplinary research,

applications, and

assessments

Communication and

Outreach

Integrated Information Systems:

Preparedness and Adaptation

Engaging Preparedness &

Adaptation Communities:

Partnerships

NIDIS Evaluation

92% 86% 85% 82% 78%

Globally

The total benefits of improved early warning systems would

reach between $4b and 3$6 billion USD per year-with co-

benefits (World Bank, 2011)

Understanding the players and the rules of the game: Identifying existing and needed information networks for

managing climate/drought-related risks

(1) Service provision as a set of activities: Collecting, quality control, management and archiving data

Maintaining continuous watch on short-term climate

fluctuations, decadal-scale variations , diagnosis and prediction

Applied research to support climate information services

(2) Service as an administrative network: Institutional

structure and management Scope of operational domain

Structure and processes of interactions

Driving mandates behind roles

Resource dependencies and shared tasks

Outreach activities

Mission, culture and incentive structure for interdisciplinary and

service activities.

Cost effectiveness

Impacts of underestimating the complexity

of adaptation and of claims of sustainability

• The number of states, communities, and institutions with

improved capacity to inform risk management and reduce

exposure to climatic risks (compared to previous droughts)

• The number of staff in or working with those institutions trained

to develop and communicate local drought information and

help reduce impacts

• The number of research projects that conduct and update

impacts and user needs assessments in drought-sensitive

parts of the US and communicate the results to the public

• The percentage of the U.S. population covered by adequate

climate risk and early warning information systems

Are we better off?

9

Climate risk governance: Win-win not always easy to implement in practice

Accountability- CRM needs to be located in a ministry or department- with

planning oversight and some fiscal responsibility-provide political authority and

policy coherence across sectors. Emergency management organizations can

rarely play that role

Efficiency- occurs when CRM is carried out in partnership with at-risk

households, communities, organizations that represent them. Benefits are cost-

effectiveness, sustainability, citizenship and social cohesion: NMHS cannot take

on all of the networks ---------limits of “co-production”

Monitoring

• Improved satellite estimates of snow amount

(e.g., SWE)

• Improved satellite estimates and in situ

measurements of soil moisture (SMAP)

• Improved real-time precipitation observations

• Estimates of Ground water/surface water

interactions during drought

• Near real time attribution of drought

11

A prediction-Future Directions

• The future drought prediction research:

• Improved understanding of drought development

mechanisms

• Role of Atmospheric Rivers and other phenomena in reducing

drought severity and duration

• An improved assessment of drought monitoring based on

verification metrics

• Impacts of decadal scale variations on seasonal forecast

reliability

• An improved probabilistic drought monitoring and prediction

system including uncertainties and verification, building on

previous effort (NLDAS, NMME)

• An improved climate forecast system, including better initial

conditions, better physical processes representations, higher

resolution.

NIDIS Information Services Partners: A “National Framework” exercise for the GFCS?

Monitoring & Forecasting Drought Impacts

Assessments and Scenarios

Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness &

Adaptation

Early Warning

Information

Systems

13

Drought remains a hidden risk

For exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme

weather and climate events can have extreme impact

14

Short-term actions do not always provide long term risk reduction-

can reduce or increase longer-term risks

Most estimates of disaster losses exclude indirect losses –

livelihoods, informal economies, intangible losses including

ecosystem services, quality of life and cultural impacts

In some areas drying due to climate change will be overlain

on the periodic droughts those areas have always

experienced

The current availability and quality of climate

observations and impacts data to support adaptation

are inadequate for large parts of the globe

Limited evaluation/appraisals of implementation

15

How did we get here? Status and antecedent

conditions

Is this drought like others? Why has it been

dry/drier than normal?

What are the impacts and where did they

occur?

What information is being provided and by

whom?

How bad might it get and how long will it last?

Are information needs being met?

How are we planning for this year and for

longer-term risks and opportunities?

2010

2011

2012

15

03/13

The cumulative nature of hazards, extremes and disasters-risk profiles • Systems may change faster than the models can be recalibrated-Projections

may be most unreliable in precisely the situations where they are most desired

Proactive decision-making: Learning and policy windows

• “Co-production”- valuable concept but can be an incentive for

mis-placed advocacy and co-optation

• “Information use” as symbolic commitment to rational choice

• Win-win not always easy to implement in practice

Information services to support adaptation in changing environments • Joint fact-finding, development and diffusion of technology and information

• Where do science and policy talk to each other-what do they say? Clarify benefits of participation in design, implementation and maintenance

Crafting services to inform Adaptation:

some considerations

MONITORING/RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT (data, forecasts...) & Decision support tools

(impacts, scenarios...) DELIVERY, EVALUATION.

NIDIS- Climate Information Services

+ =

Scientific

Knowledge

development and

Management

Products and

tools

Capacity and

Coordination:

Services

18

Year 1: Scoping the Drought Early Warning Information System Gap analyses: What information exists and how is it being coordinated and used? Characterize and communicate risks across timescales-with existing information for 2-3 critical issues

Year 2. Implementation of the Drought Early Warning System (seasonal, multi-year, longer term trends): Develop drought sub-portals Embed information into preparedness and adaptation plans Establish network for ongoing briefings on impacts and projections across climate timescales

Develop subteams to assess (1) Monitoring and forecasting; (2) Impact indicators and triggers (3) Preparedness and education: Assemble drought-sensitive planning indicators and management triggers database; Assess present drought information coordination partnerships and processes Identify Federal and state-level partnerships, decision support tools and actions needed (to improve information development, coordination and flow for preparedness and risk reduction)

Develop an operational plan for designing and implementing an EWS process

Initiate development of a region or basin specific Drought Information Monitor and Portal (as a subset of the U.S. Drought Portal) Develop decision support tools for demand projections and revise triggering criteria Prototyping: Given better data and information coordination would responses have been improved for past events? Assess (1) value of improved information using past conditions, (2) responses for projections/ scenarios (decadal, climate change), (3) feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to Executive Council. Feedback into regional Drought Monitor and Portal. Early Warning System maintenance (Fed-state-tribal) and transfer to other sub-basins

Predictability S

pa

tia

l S

ca

les

Time Scales

Minute Day Week Seaso

n

1 yr 10

yrs

100

yrs

1 km

10

km

100

km

1000

km

10000

km

User

Needs Current

Skill

Research on

decadal prediction,

global warming

impacts, role of

land use changes,

aerosols, etc.

Improved ENSO

prediction and

regional response,

downscaling ,

improved land/atmos

coupling, soil

moisture, snow

observations, etc

Higher resolution,

improved Rossby wave

impacts, land/atmos

coupling, land initial

states, improved

atmos/land seasonal

cycle, weather extreme

etc

20

MAPP Drought Task

Force Advancing U.S.

drought monitoring and

prediction

Forecasting Tools Development-NIDIS-MAPP-

DTF • Updated Optimal Climate Normals (Temperature & Precipitation Trends)

• Improved Understanding of Drought and Ocean Conditions

• ENSO Plume Model Forecasts

• Improved Understanding of Drought and Land Conditions

• Reliability Conditioned on Decadal Variability

• National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME)

• Land-Data Assimilation System (LDAS)

• NOAA Drought Outlook

• Experimental Climate Divisions and Regional Drought Forecasts

30 DAYS

1 SEASON

Heat Waves

Storm Track Variations

Madden-Julian

Oscillation

El Niño-Southern

Oscillation + ?????

3 YEARS

10 YEARS

Decadal Variability

Solar Variability

Deep Ocean Circulation

Greenhouse Gases

30 YEARS

100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-

CENTURY 21

Public Awareness

And Education

Engaging

Preparedness

Communities

Integrated

Monitoring and

Forecasting

Interdisciplinary Needs Assess.,

Research,

Applications

U.S.

Drought Portal

NIDIS

Implementation Over 50 Federal, state,

tribal and private

sector representatives

nationally

Regional Integrated Sciences

and Assessments

Regional Climate Centers

NCAR

NCDC

NDMC-NOAA,USGS, USDA,

USBoR

State Climatologists, NWS-

CSD

USDA Extension

NDMC

State and Tribal Offices,

RISAs

US BoR, USACE, Counties

NRCS, USGS

River Forecast Center, BoR

Climate Prediction Center

USDA

NIDIS Technical

Working

Groups

Regional Drought

Early

Warning Systems