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Climate change scenarios in Europe and their potential effects on crops and pests

Part I: Climate scenarios in Europe

Alessandro Dosio

Climate Change Unit - Institute for Environment and Sustainability

European Commission - Joint Research Centre

Alessandro.dosio@jrc.it

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Is climate changing?

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Is climate changing? Observations of climate change

(IPCC AR4, 2007)

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Why is climate changing?

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Why is climate changing? Changes in natural and human drivers of climate:

There is a very high confidencethat the effect of human activities since 1750 has been a net positive forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2.

(IPCC

AR4

, 200

7)

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Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate?

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Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate? Predictions of climate changes: the ‘uncertainty cascade’

Emissions

ConcentrationsCO2, methane, sulphates, etc.

Global climate changeTemperature, rainfall, pressure, etc.

Regional detailMountains, coasts, extreme weather, etc.

ImpactsFlooding, drought, food supply, etc.

Scenarios from population, energy and economics models

Carbon cycle and chemistry models

Coupled global climate models

Regional climate models

Impact models

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Can we ‘predict’ the change in the climate?

150 Km5 Km

300 Km

30 Km20 levels

Climate system AOGCM

Downscaling

Numerical model

Impact models(Redrawn from UK Hadley Centre originals)

AOGCM RCM

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Development of climate models

(IPCC

AR3

, 200

1)

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Do models work?

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Do models work?

Projections for 1990 to 2005carried out for the FAR and the SAR suggested global mean temperature increases of about 0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade,

These results are comparable to observed values of about 0.2°Cper decade.

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Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean

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Changes in Temperature

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Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999)

A1B scenario

Changes in temperature

(IPCC

AR4

, 200

7)

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Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean

Changes in TemperatureAnnual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean.

Seasonally, the largest warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area in summer.

Minimum winter temperatures are likely to increase more than the average in northern Europe.

Maximum summer temperatures are likely to increase more than the average insouthern and central Europe.

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Changes in Precipitation

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Changes in precipitation

Future (2080-2099) - present (1980-1999)

A1B scenario

(IPCC

AR4

, 200

7)

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Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean

Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and decrease in most of the Mediterranean area.

In central Europe, precipitation is likely to increase in winter but decrease in summer.

Changes in precipitation

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Changes in Extreme Events

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Extreme eventsTheory Model prediction

(IPCC AR4, 2007)

Observations

(Schär et al., 2004)

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Projection of future climate: Europe and Mediterranean

Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe.

The annual number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area.

Risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area.

Extreme events

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Ongoing work

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Ongoing work: ENSEMBLES

ENSEMBLE based predictions of climatechanges and their impacts

5 year (2004-2009) FP6 project

15Meuro

77 partners + 19 affiliated

8 research themes

http://www.ensembles-eu.org/

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Conclusions

• Climate is changing and will continue to change

• Europe will be affected by the changing climate

• Expected changes in temperature (Max and

Min), precipitation and extreme events

• Our understanding of the climate system and its

prediction (better models, new physics, higher

resolution, probabilistic approach) is improving

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The climate system

The complexity of the climate system and the multiple interactions that determine its behavior impose limitations on our ability to understand fully the future course of Earth’s global climate. There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change. (IPCC 4AR, 2007)

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