New Austrian Climate Scenarios Downscaled and improved data for key climate parameters

and climate indices

Chimani B., Heinrich G., Kienberger S., Leuprecht A.,

Lexer A., Hofstätter M., Salzmann M., Poetsch M.S.,

Spiekermann R., Truhetz H.

Aim • Concepts to adaption to climate change need

high quality, high resolution climatological data

• Federation of Austria and all provinces

• Creation and Interpretation of high resolution climate information on past, present and future and climate changes

Observational Data

40 weather stations: 1961 – 2015

4-20 „flag-ship“ stations: 1900 – 2015

5 Parameters – daily base: • Temperature min/max • Precipitation • Global Radiation • Sunshine Duration

1km gridded data: 1961 – 2012 1km gridded data:

1981 – 2012

Climate Model Data

EURO-Cordex:

29 groups, 10 RCMs,13GCMs (from CMIP5) =>

33(available)/79(planned) simulations in 50km resolution

29(available)/63(planned) simulations in 12.5km resolution

Used in Project: 12.5km resolution

3 representative concentration pathways: • RCP 2.6: 1 model result • RCP 4.5: 14 model results • RCP 8.5: 14 model results

(from Orlanski, 1975; Barry and Carleton, 2001)

~150 km

12.5 km

~1 km

GCM RCM Impact-

forschung

Stat. DS

• Downscaling of RCMs to 1km with Quantile mapping (QM)

• Downscaling of RCMs to 1km with Quantile mapping (QM) • Calibration with observational data in 1km resolution • Climate model is downscaled using calibration • => statistical characteristics (bias) are corrected, but physical

characteristics of the model do not change

Climate parameter resolution period quality

Tmin 1 km (12.5 km) 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected (uncorrected)

Tmax 1 km (12.5 km) 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected (uncorrected)

Tmean 1 km (12.5 km) 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected (uncorrected)

Precipitation 1 km (12.5 km) 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected (uncorrected)

Global radiation 1 km (12.5 km) 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected (uncorrected)

Rel. humidity stations 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected

Wind velocity stations 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected

Global radiation, Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, precipitation

stations 1971 - 2100 Bias corrected

Rel. humidity 12.5 km 1971 - 2100 uncorrected

Wind velocity 12.5 km 1971 - 2100 uncorrected

Climate Indices TEMPERATURE INDICES 1

1) TM mean temperature 2) ST25 summer days 3) HT30 heat days 4) KYE kysely heat episode 5) TN20 tropical nights 6) HWDI heat wave duration 7) CSDI cold spell duration 8) HHM normalized anomalies

TEMPERATURE INDICES 2 9) GSL growing season length 10) GSLt mean temperature in GS 11) GSLrr total precipitation in GS 12) GSLfd frost days in GS 13) FLfd frost days in flowering period 14) FD0 frost days (Tmin<0°) 15) ID0 ice days (Tmax<0°)

SPECIAL INDICES 24) SC05 snow cover >5cm days 25) SC20 snow cover>20cm days 26) RG global radiation 27) SD sunshine duration 28) ff95d gale wind speed 29) ff98d storm wind speed 30) ff95a gale wind days 31) ff98a storm wind days

PRECIPITATION INDICES 16) RR total precipitation 17) DD wet days (>1mm) 18) DD#p wet days (> 30/60/90/95 perctile) 19) R#p precipitation intensity on wet days 20) Rx1d maximum daily precipitation totals 21) Rx5d maximum 5-day precipitation totals 22) CDD1 consecutive dry days <1mm 23) CWD1 consecutive wet days >1mm

base period: daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, special episodes

Calculated for observational and model data

(16) RR

(18) DD30p

mean seasonal precipitation (JJA)

days with RR> 30pct (JJA)

Examples for observational data

1961-2011

Uncertainties

Caused by: • Internal variability • Future human

activities (greenhouse gas emission,..)

• Modell uncertainties

aus: IPCC 2013

Climate Change signal Robustness of signal: percentage of model runs with the same sign as the median [e.g.:10/14 71%] Significance of signal: percentage of statistically significant realisations with the same sign as median [e.g.:6/10 60%] Comparison to Natural Variability: Is median of climate change signals within the standard deviation of the observations?

Uncertainty assessment: for each grid point and RCP

+

-

0

ensemble median (14 model realizations)

Climate chance signal of one model realization

statistically significant statistically insignificant

Presentation of results

• Factsheets for federal state, provinces and single municipalities including expert assessments

Availability of Results – Climate model data (grids/stations)

→Available as ncdf from CCCA-Datacentre (as soon as data and datacentre available, ~March 2016)

– Climate indices

– Climate change signals and uncertainties