Climate Change Scenarios Development Climate Change Scenarios Development

P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMAP. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA

Why we are studying climate change ? Climate condition and its change are one of the limiting factors for economic development of the country

Last 40 years the ecosystem of Mongolia is clearly changed as result of combination of climate change and human activity

Mongolian ecosystem is very vulnerable and sensitive to the climate change. Because of severe continental climate

The study result gives background understand of the level of potential impacts of climate change on environment and economic sectors

Identify the response measures in human life to adapt under changes in climate system

Observed Global Climate Change

CO2 concentration is increased 280 ppm for period 1750 to 368 ppm in 2000, 31%

Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0C, land areas warmed more than oceans

Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is increased over the 20th century greater than during any other century in last 1000 years

Hot days/Heat index is increased Frequency and severity of drought is

increased by 5-10%over 20th century Northern Hemisphere

Heavy precipitation events is increased at mid and high northern latitude

Global mean see level is increased by 20 sm since 1900

Snow cover is decreased by 10% since 1960 Growing season is lengthened by 1 to 4 days

per decade during 40 years

Recent Trends of Global Average Surface Temperature

A combination of surface air temperature over land and sea-surface temperature over the ocean. Individual bars show annual values as deviations from 1961-1990 average.

Present Climate Feature in Mongolia

• Climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with sharply defined seasons, high annual and diurnal temperature fluctuations, low rainfall and relatively long duration of sunshine in a year.

• Average annual temperatures are around 8.5oC in the Gobi and -7.8oC in the high mountainous areas.

• The extreme minimum temperature is -31.1oC to -52.9oC in January and the extreme maximum temperature is +28.5oC to +42.2oC in July.

• Annual mean precipitation is 300-400 mm in the mountain regions, and 150-250 mm in the steppe, 100-150 mm in the steppe-desert and 50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert areas. About 85-90 per cent of total precipitation falls in summer

• Mongolia has on an average 3,000 hours of sunshine annually

During the last 60 years• Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C this increase was greater in the winter (3.610C), and smaller in the spring (1.4-1.50C)

• Winter warming is more in the high mountain regions, and less in the steppe and Gobi and desert.

• There is no significant changes in annual precipitation amount.

Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia

1.55 0.911.05 1.480.721.66

1.79

1.13

1.25 0.941.321.42 1.071.15 0.65 1.081.001.66 1.15 0.181.03 1.061.400.34 1.011.131.80 1.23

1.42 1.062.04 0.86 1.39 1.161.24 1.51 1.021.53 0.932.12 1.60 1.421.55 1.731.25

9 0 9 5 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 1 54 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

0.0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.5 1.5 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.5

Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years

Growing Season Length, 8.4 days

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Erdenesant Maanit Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa Hutag Sukhbaatar

Growing Degree Days>5 degC, 169.1 degC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Erdenesant Maanit Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa Hutag Sukhbaatar

Number of Frost Days Tmin<0 degC, -8.8 days

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Erdenesant Maanit Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa Hutag Sukhbaatar

Mean Duirnal range, -0.84 degC

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Erdenesant Maanit Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa Hutag Sukhbaatar

Extreme weather index and its change

Mean Climate Precipitation, mm/day

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

DJF MAM JJA SON ANN

Winter is getting snowy and summer is getting dry

Future Climate Change Scenarios in MongoliaMethod of Climate Change Study and Its Impact Study

Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models• winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter

• It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990January July

Model Temperature Observed Simulation BIAS St. deviation

Variation1.HadCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -0.44 1.13 1.32 1.75

Summer 17.02 16.22 0.79 1.46 2.14Winter -17.55 -18.42 0.92 3.21 10.03

2. CGCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -7.06 7.63 4.78 22.88Summer 17.02 12.16 4.75 3.39 11.55Winter -17.55 -27.06 9.44 6.76 45.4

3. CSIRO Annual mean 0.66 -0.86 1.54 3.25 10.54Summer 17.02 19.18 -2.16 3.33 11.06Winter -17.55 -18.02 0.53 5.27 27.27

How accurate is the climate model?

Time slice Winter Summer Annual

Temperature, Celsius

2020 0.85 1.99 1.37

2050 2.37 3.53 2.81

2080 3.89 6.35 4.88

  Precipitation, mm

2020 5.0 -5.2 9.1

2050 8.2 15.1 44.3

2080 14.2 13.6 55.4

Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

ª âºë 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Çóí 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change

ª âºë 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Çóí 2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change

1961-1990

2050 2080

2020

Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2

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