Climate Change Scenarios for theCongo Basin

Fulco Ludwig, Andreas Haensler and Paul Scholte

Modelling chain of the project

Observed temperatures and precipitation

Projected changes in annual temperatures

Highemissionscenario

Lowemissionscenario

projected changes for frequency of hotdays and nights

Projectedchanges inseasonalprecipitation

Projected changes in intensity of heavy rainfall events

Highemissionscenario

Lowemissionscenario

Average changes (%) in precipitation, evapo-

transpiration and runoff across the Congo River Basin

Impact ofclimatechange onmean, highand low riverflows

Climate change impacts on hydrologicalcycle

Changes in run-off mainly depend on changes in rainfall

●As rainfall changes are uncertain run-off changesare also uncertain

Run-off and discharge will increase – especially duringthe wet season

●River discharge increases – up to 60% - could causeincreased flooding

Difference between wet and dry season will becomelarger

Especially in the northern and southern parts of theregion lower low flows and more drought are projectedfor the future

Climate change impacts on river flow intofive different hydropower dams

Climate change impacts on hydropowerproductionMore average run-off increases the potential for

energy production from hydropower●But due to the uncertainties in future run-off this is

not certain

The run-off however will become more variablethis will make dam management morecomplicated and energy availability less reliable

Increased peak flow can also affect hydropowerfacilities●For example dam levels have to lowered to cover for

peak flow

●Extreme flows could damage dams and facilities

Climate change impacts on ecosystemcarbon storage

Climate change impacts on agriculture

Higher CO2 concentrations potentially increases production andreduce agricultural water use

Higher temperatures reduces plant growth, cause heat stressand increase evaporation

Water stress will increase in the drier parts of the regions

High temperatures and high humidity make crops sensitive todiseases

In the northern and southern plant production will be affectedby more frequent droughts and dry spells

Locally, agriculture will be affected by high intensive rainfallevents and floods

Agriculture - conclusion

In the region, water will not become a limiting factor foragricultural production – with the acceptance of northernedge of the region (mainly Chad)

In terms of climate change, temperature increases willbe of more importance than changes inevapotranspiration and rainfall

Need for adaptation

improve preparedness for extreme weather eventssuch as droughts and floods

in the agricultural and energy sector there is a need forrisk spreading by diversification●grow different crops and also different varieties to reduce

impact of climate variability

●Countries should be careful not to become fully dependent onhydropower because this makes them too vulnerable todroughts

To prevent forest degeneration and erosion there should bemore attention on reforestation and agroforestry

Programs on food and water security should develop strategiesto manage climate variability so they are prepared for bothdry and wet periods