climate change, deforestation and the future of african ...review . navigating amazonia under...
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Waterloo Foundation
Oriel College
Founded 1326; fifth oldest college in Oxford
How will Africa’s forests look and function in the 21st century as a consequence of climate change, and how can management and planning influence such a future?
IPCC projections for 21st century
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010
Fos
sil F
uel E
mis
sion
(P
gCy-1
)
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Full range of IPCC
individual scenarios used for climate
projections
A1B Models Average
A1FI Models Average
A1T Models Average
A2 Models Average
B1 Models Average
B2 Models Average
Observed
Projected
Time (y)
21st century warming in an Earth history context
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
NW Amazonia
NE Amazonia
N Congo
E Indonesia
SW India
W Africa
C Amazonia
SW Amazonia
Cameroon
W Indones
S Congo
C America
SE Amazonia
Rate of Temperature Change (oC/decade)
Trends in mean temperature in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998
Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions
44
Figure 14
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
NW Amazonia
W Africa
SW India
N Congo
S Congo
SE Amazonia
Cameroon
E Malesia
Australia
SW Amazonia
W Malesia
Cent Amazonia
Cent America
Precipitation change (%/decade)
Trends in mean precipitation in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998
Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions
Conference outline
• All talks are 20 minutes long, with 20 minutes for discussion
• Please keep to time - the discussion is essential to the success of the conference
• At the end of each day there is a panel discussion and (on days 1-2) a poster session
Day 1: Overview and history Introduction to African rainforests The history of human interactions with climate and forests Day 2: Climate change and forest response Climate change projections for Africa The effects of contemporary change on forest structure and function Day 3 Navigating the pressures of the 21st century Deforestation, logging and hunting: direct pressures on the African tropical forests Forest conservation in the 21st century: potential and challenges
• How do African rainforests interact with climate?
• What are the likely patterns of climate change in Africa?
• How has the history and prehistory of African rainforests affected their likely response to climate change?
• Are there signals how how African forests are changing in response to ongoing climate change?
Can we identify regions of particular vulnerability and resilience to climate change? How do we maximize adaptation and resilience? How can conservation and development priorities be matched with maximising adaption to climate change? What do we need to know?
Outputs
Podcasts of presentations Synthesis paper: target for Science Special issue of a journal: e.g. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Possible conversion to book? Policy briefing summary notes
ISSN 0962-8436
volume 363
number 1498
pages 1725–1932
Climate change and the fate of the AmazonPapers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and Timmons Roberts
27 May 2008
volume 363 . number 1498 . pages 1725–1932
27 May 2008
Climate change and the fate of the AmazonPapers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and
Timmons Roberts
Preface 1727
Y. Malhi, T. Roberts & R. A. Betts
Review. The future of the
Amazon: new perspect ives from
climate, ecosystem and social
sciences 1729
R. A. Betts, Y. Malhi & J. T. Roberts
Interact ions among Amazon land
use, forests and climate: prospects
for a near-term forest t ipping
point 1737
D. C. Nepstad, C. M. Stickler,
B. Soares-Filho & F. Merry
Climate change, biofuels and
eco-social impacts in the Brazilian
Amazon and Cerrado 1747
D. Sawyer
Amazon Basin climate under global
warming: the role of the sea surface
temperature 1753
P. P. Harris, C. Huntingford &
P. M. Cox
An object ive t ropical At lant ic sea
surface temperature gradient
index for studies of south
Amazon dry-season climate
variability and change 1761
P. Good, J. A. Lowe, M. Collins
& W. Moufouma-Okia
Observed change of the standardized
precipitat ion index, its potent ial
cause and implicat ions to future
climate change in the Amazon
region 1767
W. Li, R. Fu, R. I. N. Juárez
& K. Fernandes
Hydro-climat ic and ecological
behaviour of the drought of
Amazonia in 2005 1773
J. A. Marengo, C. A. Nobre,
J. Tomasella, M. F. Cardoso &
M. D. Oyama
Interact ions between rainfall,
deforestat ion and fires during recent
years in the Brazilian Amazonia 1779
L. E. O. C. Aragão et al.
Fire-mediated dieback and
composit ional cascade in an
Amazonian forest 1787
J. Barlow & C. A. Peres
Fire, climate change and biodiversity
in Amazonia: a Late-Holocene
perspect ive 1795
M. B. Bush, M. R. Silman,
C. McMichael & S. Saatchi
Human dimensions of climate change:
the vulnerability of small farmers
in the Amazon 1803
E. S. Brondizio & E. F. Moran
Review. Effects of rising temperatures
and [CO2] on the physiology of
t ropical forest t rees 1811
J. Lloyd & G. D. Farquhar
The changing Amazon forest 1819
O. L. Phillips, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Baker,
K.-J. Chao & N. Higuchi
Impact of a drier Early-M id-Holocene
climate upon Amazonian forests 1829
F. E. Mayle & M. J. Power
Drought effects on lit ter fall, wood
product ion and belowground
carbon cycling in an Amazon forest :
results of a throughfall reduct ion
experiment 1839
P. M. Brando et al.
The fate of assimilated carbon during
drought : impacts on respirat ion in
Amazon rainforests 1849
P. Meir, D. B. Metcalfe, A. C. L. Costa
& R. A. Fisher
Towards quant ifying uncertainty in
predict ions of Amazon 'dieback' 1857
C. Huntingford et al.
Water recycling by Amazonian
vegetat ion: coupled versus uncoupled
vegetat ion–climate interact ions 1865
S. A. Cowling, Y. Shin, E. Pinto
& C. D. Jones
Effects of large-scale Amazon forest
degradat ion on climate and air
quality through fluxes of carbon
dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust
and isoprene 1873
R. Betts, M. Sanderson &
S. Woodward
Conservat ion st rategies to mit igate
impacts from climate change
in Amazonia 1881
T. J. Killeen & L. A. Solórzano
Review. Road building, land use
and climate change: prospects for
environmental governance in
the Amazon 1889
S. Perz et al.
Environmental policy-making networks
and the future of the Amazon 1897
M. C. Lemos & J. T. Roberts
Taking things public: a cont ribut ion
to address human dimensions of
environmental change 1903
D. S. Alves
Review. Navigat ing Amazonia under
uncertainty: past , present and future
environmental governance 1911
E. Boyd
Generat ing carbon finance through
avoided deforestat ion and its
potent ial to create climat ic,
conservat ion and human
development benefits 1917
J. Ebeling & M. Yasué
Better RED than dead: paying the
people for environmental services
in Amazonia 1925
A. Hall
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