DEALING WITH MOTHER NATURE'SATTITUDE PROBLEM

Brian GongolDJ Gongol & Associates, Inc.

March 17, 2015

Nebraska Rural Water AssociationGrand Island, Nebraska

Q1: Is the climate changing?

Q2: Are people are causing global warming?

Some climate change appears clear

Humans are probably 100% responsiblefor 50% of the observed changes

The other 50% may be out of our hands

BUT...it doesn't matter.

You don't have to believe in man-made climate change to do some smart planning for climate and weather uncertainty

What does uncertainty look like?

Mass-impact events can happen anytime

Far-out influences: Sunspots and solar flares

Even more far-out: Meteor strikes

It happened in Manson, Iowa 74 million years ago Creating a crater 23 miles across

And in Russia In 2014 Causing 1,000 injuries

Even more far-out: Meteor strikes

556 recorded events between 1994 and 2013

Threats of everything from heat waves to ice ages

What else could happen?

We used to worry about nuclear winter

Nuclear winter: Extinct? Volcanoes: Not.

The year without a summer (1816)

Miniature ice age (cyclical event) Tambora volcano (freak event) Together equals a year with no growing season

Icelandic volcano (2010)

Remember how to say Eyjafjallajökull?

Domestic volcanoes

Yellowstone Pacific Northwest California Hawaii

And there's always El Nino

We face non-greenhouse-gas risks all the time

But for planning purposes,let's start with the risks

for which we havereadily-available tools

EPA forecasts for Nebraska

Wetter Dakotas More frequent flooding Deeper droughts Lower soil moisture Greater aquifer depletion

Maybe we haven't measured long enough

Local data only goes back about 150 years

Maybe measurements haven't been accurate

Maybe we're all wrong

Climate preparedness tools canoverlap with terrorism preparedness

Any good preparation results in some waste

Remember the ozone layer?

Prepare!

If you're not preparing for thingsthat don't end up happening,you haven't prepared enough

How to accommodate uncertainty

Examine the full range of possible outcomes

Prepare for all extremes

Consider bothimpact and probability

Too much precipitation?

Too little precipitation?

Wrong type of precipitation?

Too much heat?

Too little heat?

Heat or cold at the wrong times?

How do extremes affect major water uses?

Agriculture/irrigation

Power production

Reservoirs

Ethanol and biodiesel production

Industrial use

Residential use

Microclimate issues

"Global" warming is too much, too daunting

Think on a local scale

Is land use changing?

Do you have heat islands?

How much safety factor around cones of depression?

Where is the groundwater and where could it go?

Where is the surface water and where could it go?

Test some what-if scenarios

What if: More snowstorms?

What if: More ice storms?

What if: More intense spring storms?

What if: Summer drought is the new normal?

What if: Fall lasts later in the year?

Special considerations in Nebraska

Republican River allocations

More than $3 million spent on the legal fight Kansas won $5.5 million award

Recent history

2006: 4th-driest May, 2nd-wettest December 2007: 3rd-driest November 2008: Heavy rainfall 2009: 3rd-wettest October 2010: Major summer flooding 2011: Record-breaking Missouri River flooding 2012: Driest year in Nebraska history 2013: October tornadoes (EF-4 in Wayne) 2014: Bitter extended winter, Pilger tornado cluster 2015: To be determined...

Platte River flooding during 2013 drought

Missouri River extremes, navigation, and ecosystem

Shifting wind patterns and the Sand Hills

Downpours on flat lands

Other special regional considerations

Drought magnifies nitrate runoff

Dry land means shifting pipes and settlement

Harsh winter cycles challenge pipes

Long droughts expose shallow wells

Extraordinary flooding overtakes wells

Factors to consider

How robust is your system?

The Chumbawamba effect

Have you considered all 81 possibilities?

Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations?

What about streaks of bad luck?

Have you considered "black swan" events?

Channel your inner Donald Rumsfeld

Consider known unknowns

Expect unknown unknowns

What tipping points would challenge your system?

Are you at the unstable top of a hillor the stable bottom of the valley?

Costs of preparedness

Borrowing will never be cheaper

Will DC distribute more or less funding?

Are you charging appropriate user fees?

Is there literally enough for a rainy day?

Or a droughty day?

Will taxes support your efforts?

Be broad about causes, specific on solutions

Don't let a political debate over climate change stifle planning for inevitable uncertain events

You can't single-handedly fix climate change

But you might...

Ensure well security against future droughts

Upgrade distribution to handle harsh winters

Anticipate strain on rivers and aquifers

Plan for worst-case nitrate runoff scenarios

Don't try everything at once

There are enough scenarios and possibilitiesto take them one per week

With or without global warming...

You don't have to believein man-made climate changeto make good use of the tools

EPA tools for climate change

Or just Mother Nature's attitude problem

Adaptation Tools for Public Officials

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/adapt-tools.html

Lots of links all in one place

Adaptation Strategies Guide for Water Utilities

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/upload/epa817k11003.pdf

Long, but sections are devoted to individual regions

Flood resilience guidebook

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/emerplan/upload/epa817b14006.pdf

Probably good for every utility with a nearby river

Map of expected climate change effects

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/scenario.cfm

Interactive drill-down to your community

Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/techtools/vsat.cfm

"EPA strongly encourages water and wastewater utility owners and operators to use VSAT 6.0 to conduct or update an all-hazards risk assessment"

Questions?

Thank you for coming! Brian Gongol DJ Gongol & Associates 515-223-4144 brian@djgongol.com Twitter: @briangongol Twitter: @djgongol

References and credits

Human impact on climate change: http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report-is-out-its-warmer-and-were-responsible/ http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WG1AR5_Headlines.pdf

Tambora volcano: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/Newsletter/htm_format_articles/climate_corner/yearwithoutsummer_lf.htm

Ice Age/Chicago Tribune headline: http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1979/01/14/page/4/article/were-slipping-into-an-ice-age/index.html

Asteroid map: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=84763

Manson impact crater: http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/igs/meteorites-in-iowa/

Russian asteroid in 2014: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/asteroid-samples-analysed-after-earth-collision/5472798

Icelandic flag: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ic.html

El Nino map: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

Republican River dispute: http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/regional_news/m-spent-by-nebraska-in-republican-river-basin-fight/article_61a43903-0bb3-5f07-89c3-0ebebfa56b6e.html http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nebraska-considered-big-winner-in-river-dispute-with-kansas-despite/article_7dec6af2-bc3b-11e4-baa8-d705578bcee6.html

Solar flare image: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News062013-cme.html#.Um3mcPnksrU

Ozone hole image: http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2006-09-24&hem=S

Federal funds rate graph: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/

Earth from space: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=57723

Wayne tornado in 2014: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=surveyresultsfromwayne,netornado

Climate records: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/

Donald Rumsfeld: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/33935/rumsfeld-visits-troops-farewell-visit#.VQERtI54o3U

Groundwater map: http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/StateMap.asp?sa=NE&sc=31

All other photos are copyright Brian Gongol