Global Climate Change CampaignPhysicians for Social Responsibility

What Is Global Warming?

GHGs — Sources and SinksSources Sinks

CO2 fossil fuels, cement production ocean and land biosphere

CH4 biomass burning, rice paddies, reaction withfossil fuels hydroxyl radicals in

atmosphere

N2O fertilization, biomass burning, photolytic destruction transportation in stratosphere

CFCs refrigerants, industrial solvents, photolytic destruction fire retardants in stratosphere

H2O evaporation cloud droplets, precipitation

GHG since 1750

“The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.”

— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Earth’s average temperature has gone up between 0.5 and 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 100 years.

— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Global Air Temperature

Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and U.S. EPA

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(deg

rees

C

)Annual Mean5-Year Mean

Projections fromUnited Nations IPCC 1995

� 2 to 6.5°F elevation in temperature by year 2100

� 6- to 38-inch sea level rise by year 2100

� More hydrologic cycle extremes

The 20th century has been the warmest of the last 6 centuries.

The Warming Trend

Weather vs. Climate� Weather is the temporary, day-to-day state

of the atmosphere anywhere on the Earth’s surface.

� Climate is the long-term, prevailing pattern of weather in any given place.

280300320340360380

1850 1900 1950 2000

CO2 Concentration, Last 1,000 Years

Derived from ice-core measurements (Siple and South Pole) and direct observation (Mauna Loa, Hawaii).

Source: Based on IPCC (1994)

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health

altered food and crop productivity

extreme weather events

thermal extremes

worsened air pollution

effects on vectors and infective parasites

temperature

precipitation

sea level rise

Climate affects:

regional malnutrition and hungerdeaths, injuries and psychological disorders

altered rates of heat- and cold-related illness and death

acute and chronic respiratory disorders

infectious diseases, waterborne diseases

Source: “Human Population Health,” IPCC, 1995

Heat mortality across the U.S.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Deaths from Heat in Chicago July 1995

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

No.

of D

eath

s

Date in July 1995

Due to heat and cardiovascular diseaseDue to cardiovascular disease aloneDue to heat alone

Deaths among case subjects

Source: New England Journal of Medicine, 7/11/96

Heat Index

Heat Index

Total deaths in Chicago in all

three categories

Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

Hantavirus

DengueLeptospirosis

Yellow FeverCholera

Rift Valley FeverMeningitis Yellow Fever

Ebola

Plague

Morbillivirus

Dengue

Diphtheria

Lassa Fever

Bolivian Hemorrhagic Fever

V. Cholerae O139

AnthraxDengue

Source: World Health Organization, 1996

Status of Major Vector-borne Diseases and Predicted Sensitivity to Climate Change

Possible ChangePopulations Prevalence of Distribution

at Risk, of Infection, Present as a Result of Disease Millions Millions Distribution Climatic ChangeMalaria 2100 270 tropics, subtropics highly likelyLymphatic filariases 900 90.2 tropics, subtropics likelyOnchocerciasis 90 17.8 Africa, Latin America likelySchistosomiasis 600 200 tropics, subtropics very likelyAfrican trypanosomiasis 50 25,000 tropical Africa likely

new cases per yearLeishmaniasis 350 12 million Asia, southern Europe,

infected Africa, South America not known + 400,000 new cases per year

Dracunculiasis 63 1 tropics (Africa, Asia) unlikelyArboviral diseases

Dengue … … tropics, subtropics very likelyYellow Fever … … Africa, Latin America likelyJapanese encephalitis … … East and Southeast Asia likelyOther arboviral diseases … … tropical to temperate zones likely

Source: World Health Organization, 1994, 1995Based on world population estimate of 4.8 billion (1989)

Mosquitoes on the Move

Source: World Wildlife Fund, 1996

Warmer temperatures encourage northward migration of malaria-carrying mosquitoes

Dengue Map

Vector sensitivity to temp

Encephalitis� Correlated to sustained temperatures over

86°F � Occurs primarily in southern U.S.� Conditions range from headache to aseptic

meningitis and death

Other Vector-Borne Diseases Likely To Be Affected

Schistosomiasis water snail

Onchocerciasis black fly(river blindness)

Trypanosomiasis tsetse fly(sleeping sickness)

VectorDisease

Additional Health Threats

Changes in surface temperatures of the sea could increase cholera, shellfish poisoning, water-borne infections and toxin-related illnesses.

Potential Rise in Cholera� Cholera killed 120,000 people worldwide

in 1995 — most of them children

� Global warming could significantly increase the number of cholera cases worldwide

Reported Cases of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome

1

3

11

18

3

3

2 1

2

1

5 1

3 1Source: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report; 11/15/96, vol. 45 (45)

Climate Change and Health in the Media

David Humber, DOE, NREL

Data Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

Ozone Action, 1997

David Humber, DOE, NREL

Renewable energy sources

Austin Randall Photography, DOE, NRELWarren Gretz, DOE, NREL

Alternate transportation

“The greatest risk lies

with inaction.”

economic interests

health consequence

s

Health Threats Outweigh Potential Economic Gain

Other Answers Include:Recycling used materials

More efficient use of agricultural chemicals

Better insulation

Energy-efficient lighting and production equipment

Solutions #2 (earth)

U.N. Addresses Climate Change

1992

150 countries sign the

U.N. Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC)

First Conference of

the Parties (COP-1) to

design negotiation process for

binding agreement

Second Conference

of the Parties

(COP-2) to negotiate voluntary

agreements

Kyoto conference to sign legally binding

agreements among nations

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997 (Dec.)

UNFCCC enacted

Nations Report Progress in Reducing CO2 Emissions

Source: UN Framework Convention for Climate Change

SomeOppose Action on Climate Change

� Drive a more fuel-efficient car, carpool or use mass transit� Walk or bicycle� Insulate your home and office� Lower your thermostat� Use energy-efficient lighting and other equipment in your home

and office� Recycle� Reduce unnecessary packaging

•What You Can Do•. . . at Home

What You Can Do

� Educate people about global warming� Support “weather-watch warning systems”� Research health trends related to global

warming� Discuss climate change with your

colleagues

. . . at Work

What You Can Do

� Publish articles� Green your workplace� Join a task force� Participate in public dialogue about the

problems associated with global warming

. . . at Work

What You Can Do

� Write to policymakers� Draft a petition� Support stronger regulatory emissions

standards� Write to the editor of your local newspaper or

professional magazine� Join Physicians for Social Responsibility

. . . to Voice Your Concern

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For More Information . . .

Our thanks tothe W. Alton Jones Foundation, Inc.

for making this presentation possible.