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Climate Change and Drought Operations Planning in Water Supplyg pp y
• Steven M. Thurin, P.E., HDR EngineeringPresented by:
AWRA Spring Specialty Conference May 6 2009AWRA Spring Specialty Conference – May 6, 2009
Outline of Presentation
• Supply Planning ‐ Needs and Concernsl• CUWCD Water Supply System
•Meteorology, Climate, and Water Supply• Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts• Conclusions and Recommendations• Conclusions and Recommendations•Questions
A Two Part Study
• Part One – Climate Change Issues• Part One Climate Change Issues
P O i l• Part Two – Operational Improvements
CUWCD Operates and Maintains• 8 Dams / Reservoirs – 1.6 million AF of Storage
• 3 Major and 6 Minor Diversion Dams• 89 Miles of Large‐Diameter Tunnels and 89 Miles of Large Diameter Tunnels and Pipelines
• 3 Water Treatment Plants• 3 Water Treatment Plants– Utah Valley WTP 80 MGD– Duchesne Valley WTP 4 MGDy 4– Ashley Valley WTP 15 MGD
CUWCD Operates and Maintains•Multiple Federal Projects• Large (and small) reservoirs in Colorado g ( )River and Great Basin
• Transbasin diversions complex water rightsTransbasin diversions, complex water rights• Endangered species recovery and minimum instream flowsinstream flows
CUWCD Operates and Maintains•Multiple Federal Projects• Large (and small) reservoirs in Colorado g ( )River and Great Basin
• Transbasin diversions complex water rightsTransbasin diversions, complex water rights• Endangered species recovery and minimum instream flowsinstream flows
CUWCD Needs to Know How Climate ChangeCUWCD Needs to Know How Climate Change may Affect the Reliability of its Water Supply
Outline of Presentation• Supply Planning Needs and Concerns• CUWCD Water Supply Systempp y y•Meteorology, Climate, and Water Supply• Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts• Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts• Conclusions and Recommendations•Questions
Climate Change Analysis Methods – Two Ways to Go
• # 1 ‐ The BIG Study– 1) Collect all the data
)– 2) Develop all the tools– 3) Model everything (snow, runoff, operations)– 4) Understand the system?4) y– 5) Run GCMs (many?)– 6) Downscale the results (difficult)
) M d l thi ( ti )– 7) Model everything (many more times)– 8) Assemble and interpret results (which is “right”?)– 9) Conclusions and recommendations )– 10) Change operating procedures?
Climate Change Analysis Methods – Two Ways to Go
• # 2 ‐ The FOCUSED Study– 1) Understand needs & critical system factors
)– 2) Collect relevant data & develop simple relationships– 3) Utilize available climate impact conclusions– 4) “Model” the effects of the changes4) g– 5) Conclusions and recommendations– 6) Change operating procedures?
CUWCD Water Supply System – Critical Supply Factors
•Runoff into Jordanelle Reservoir•Storable Volume in Jordanelle Reservoir•Inflow into Strawberry Reservoir•Inflow into Strawberry Reservoir•Inflow into Utah Lake
CUWCD Water Supply System – Critical Water Supply Factors
Climate Scenarios Evaluated• Scenario 1 assumes an increase in annual temperature of
2.0° to 3.5°C (3.6° to 6.3° F) and a 10 percent decrease in precipitation throughout the year. precipitation throughout the year.
• Scenario 2 assumes more severe and longer drought periods. It applies the reduced runoff results from Scenario 1 to the most severe droughts experienced in the 1950‐1999 historical period. For each drought, the volume is 1950 1999 historical period. For each drought, the volume is reduced using the slope of the correlation results, multiplied by ten percent of the average precipitation for th d ght the drought years.
Meteorology and Water Supply – Three Issues
• Temperature versus Streamflow
• Precipitation versus Streamflow
•Historical Trends in Runoff Timing
Meteorology and Water Supply – Three Issues
Pop Quiz!!!• Temperature versus Streamflow
• Precipitation versus Streamflow
Hi t i l T d i R ff Ti i• Historical Trends in Runoff Timing
Meteorology and Water Supply ‐ Three Issues
Pop Quiz!!!• Temperature versus Streamflow
– How well does runoff correlate with average temperature?
• Precipitation versus Streamflow
Hi t i l T d i R ff Ti i• Historical Trends in Runoff Timing
Meteorology and Water Supply – Three Issues
Pop Quiz!!!Pop Quiz!!!• Temperature versus Streamflow
– How well does runoff correlate with average temperature?
• Precipitation versus Streamflow– How well does runoff correlate with average precipitation?
Hi t i l T d i R ff Ti i• Historical Trends in Runoff Timing
Meteorology and Water Supply – Three Issues
Pop Quiz!!!Pop Quiz!!!• Temperature versus Streamflow
– How well does runoff correlate with average temperature?
• Precipitation versus Streamflow– How well does runoff correlate with average precipitation?
Hi t i l T d i R ff Ti i• Historical Trends in Runoff Timing– How much earlier is runoff occurring compared with 40 years ago?
Temperature versus StreamflowTotal Spring Runoff vs February Average Daily Minimum Temperature at Heber
130000
150000
H d f Ri
R2 = 0.017
110000
-feet
)
Head of RiverNorth ForkProvo Deer CrSouth Fork ProvoDiamond Fork at MouthUngaged Utah Lake
R2 = 0.0274
R2 = 0.0145
70000
90000
ring
runo
ff (a
cre- Strawberry River Inflow
Collection System InflowNatural Provo R nr HailstoneLinear (Head of River)Linear (North Fork)Linear (Provo Deer Cr)
R2 = 0.0052
R2 = 0.0773
30000
50000
Tota
l spr
Linear (Provo Deer Cr)Linear (South Fork Provo)Linear (Diamond Fork at Mouth)Linear (Ungaged Utah Lake)Linear (Strawberry River Inflow)Linear (Collection System Inflow)Li (N t l P R H il t )
R2 = 0.0175
R2 = 0.0198R2 = 0.002
R2 = 0.0709
-10000
10000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Linear (Natural Provo R nr Hailstone)
February average daily minimum temperature (F)
Precipitation versus StreamflowTotal Spring Runoff vs Total Fall and Winter Precipitation at HeberTotal Spring Runoff vs Total Fall and Winter Precipitation at Heber
R2 = 0.5106180000
200000
H d f RiR 0.5106
R2 = 0.7259
R2 = 0.628
140000
160000
re-fe
et)
Head of RiverNorth ForkProvo Deer CrSouth Fork ProvoDiamond Fork at MouthUngaged Utah Lake
R2 = 0.601680000
100000
120000
prin
g ru
noff
(acr Strawberry River Inflow
Collection System InflowNatural Provo R nr HailstoneLinear (Head of River)Linear (North Fork)Linear (Provo Deer Cr)
R2 = 0.5929
R2 = 0.4853
40000
60000Tota
l s
( )Linear (South Fork Provo)Linear (Diamond Fork at Mouth)Linear (Ungaged Utah Lake)Linear (Strawberry River Inflow)Linear (Collection System Inflow)Linear (Natural Provo R nr Hailstone)
R2 = 0.6236R2 = 0.6589
R2 = 0.29630
20000
3 6 9 12 15 18
Total fall and winter precipitation (in)
Linear (Natural Provo R nr Hailstone)
ota a a d te p ec p tat o ( )
Precipitation versus Jordanelle InflowTotal Spring Naturalized Provo River Flow at Hailstone vs Total Fall and WinterTotal Spring Naturalized Provo River Flow at Hailstone vs Total Fall and Winter
Precipitation at Heber
y = 8417.4x + 9751180000
200000
y 8417.4x 9751R2 = 0.628
140000
160000
180000
cre-
feet
)
80000
100000
120000
Prov
o R
flow
(ac
40000
60000
80000
Tota
l spr
ing
0
20000
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Total fall and winter precip (in)Total fall and winter precip (in)
Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts
Meteorology and Water Supply – Three Issues
Pop Quiz Results!!!Pop Quiz Results!!!• Temperature versus Streamflow
– How well does runoff correlate with average temperature? –Not well!
• Precipitation versus Streamflow– How well does runoff correlate with average precipitation? – Fair!
•Historical Trends in Runoff Timing– How much earlier is runoff occurring compared with 40 years ago? –None!g g
Climate Change Scenario #1 Impacts –(10% less winter precipitation)
Climate Change Scenario #2 Impacts –(more severe/extended drought)
CUWCD Water Supply System – Critical Water Supply Factors
CUWCD Water Supply System – Critical Water Supply Factors
Jordanelle Reservoir Simulated End of Year Storage
325,000
225,000
275,000
125,000
175,000
acre
-feet
25,000
75,000
-25,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
CUWCD Water Supply System – Critical Water Supply Factors
Climate Change Conclusions• The climate changes assumed in the evaluated scenarios could impact
CUWCD water supplies
• Extended or more severe droughts (whether or not associated with climate change) could put additional stress on CUWCD reservoirs and produce water supply shortages
• Climate change is likely to increase meteorological variability and therefore to contribute to increased water supply uncertaintypp y y
• CUWCD needs to continue to responsibly and efficiently plan, manage, and operate to protect its valuable water suppliesand operate to protect its valuable water supplies
Climate Change Recommendations – Phase Two• Develop an improved understanding of critical hydro‐
meteorological supply factors
• Develop hydro‐meteorological forecast factors to improve forecasting and predict critical conditions early
• Link hydro‐meteorological and runoff forecast results to an operational model
• Develop and test shortage criteria and drought operations plans and procedures plans and procedures
Questions
Climate Change and Drought Operations Planning in Utah Water Supply
• Steven M. Thurin, P.E., HDR Engineering
Presented by:
Planning in Utah Water Supply