climate change and conflict: how mediation can help save the planet kenneth cloke
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Conflict:
How Mediation Can Help Save the Planet
Kenneth Cloke
“’We’ and ‘they’ no longer exist. This planet is just us.
The destruction of one area is the destruction of yourself.
That is the new reality.”
The Dalai Lama
Problems that are Global in Nature
• The size and density of human populations• CO2 and methane emissions that are resulting in global warming• The destructive power and availability of military technology• Species extinctions and loss of tropical rainforest and woodland• Loss of potable water and arable land• Resistance to antibiotics and cost of medical care• Vulnerability to pandemics, natural catastrophes, and severe weather
conditions• Loss of bio-diversity • Unregulated economic transactions • The global impact of local, relatively minor environmental decisions • Nuclear proliferation, willingness to use war and resort to violence • Terrorism and unending cycles of revenge and retaliation• Acceptability of the use of torture and cruelty • Intentional targeting of civilians in warfare• Global financial crisis and unregulated economic transactions• Continuing poverty, social inequality and economic inequity • Destabilization due to political autocracy and dictatorship• Rise in prejudice and intolerance• Genocidal policies and “ethnic cleansing” • Growth of the drug trade, sexual trafficking, and organized crime
12 Sources of Ecological Collapse
1. Deforestation and habitat destruction2. Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility
losses)3. Water management problems4. Overhunting5. Overfishing6. Effects of introduced species on native species7. Human population growth8. Increased per-capita impact of people9. Human-caused climate change10. Buildup of toxic chemicals in the environment11. Energy shortages12. Full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic
capacity
[Jared Diamond, Collapse]
Scientific Limits on Growth (1)Climate Change:
• Preindustrial CO2 =280 ppm• Current = 387• Boundary = 350Ocean Acidification:
• Preindustrial Aragonite saturation = 3.44 Omega units• Current = 2.90• Boundary = 2.75• PreindustrialStratospheric Ozone Depletion:
• Preindustrial value=290 Dobson units • Current = 283• Boundary = 276
Nitrogen Removal:• Preindustrial value=0 tons/year nitrogen removal from
atmosphere • Current = 133• Boundary = 39
Scientific Limits on Growth (2)Phosphorous Cycle:
• Preindustrial value=1 ton/year flow into oceans• Current = 10• Boundary = 12Freshwater Use:
• Preindustrial value=415 cubic kilometers/year • Current = 2,600• Boundary = 4,000Land Use:
• Preindustrial value=Negligible conversion to cropland• Current = 11.7%• Boundary = 15%Biodiversity Loss:
• Preindustrial value=0.1 to 1.0 species per year• Current = 100• Boundary = 10
Scientific Limits on Growth (3)Aerosol Loading:
• Preindustrial value=Negligible particulate concentration in atmosphere
• Current = Undetermined• Boundary = UndeterminedChemical Pollution:
• Preindustrial value=Negligible amount emitted to or concentrated in the environment
• Current = Undetermined• Boundary = UndeterminedOthers:
• Unknown
[Boundaries for a Healthy Planet, Report by a world-wide team of
scientific experts, Scientific American, April 2010]
A Diagram of Exponential Change
0 AD 1500 1900 19502010
CO2 and Temperature
1.8
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.4
0
-0.4
-0.7
-1.1
Glo
bal Tem
pera
ture
Change (
deg F
)
Year1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
380
360
340
320
300
280
CO
2 Conce
ntra
tion (p
pm
)
1000 Years of CO2 and Global Temperature Change
Temperature
CO2
Jennifer Allen graphic
Human beings have increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by
more than 37% since the Industrial Revolution. (NOAA 2008)
The most carbon dioxide (385 ppm) in 800,000 years (Prof. Thomas Blunier, Univ. of Copenhagen; Monaco Declaration 2008)
Air Temperature Changes
Global Mean Surface Temperatures
Air and Surface Temperature Combined
Land and Ocean Changes
(BP 1950)
Projected (2100)
Current (2001)
CO
2 C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
pm
v)
Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs
Long Range Climate Change History
CO2 and Temperature Correlation
Contributions to Global Warming
Are We Responsible?
What is Responsible for Global Warming?
Ice Core Data Correlations
Range of Possible Increases #2
Future Temperatures to 2090’s
Long Range Projections
Some Predictions of Climate Change• Disappearance of sea ice
• Greater frequency of temperature extremes, including heat waves and cold spells
• Increase in tropical cyclone intensity• Decrease in water supplies in semi-arid areas including the
Mediterranean, western US, Africa and Brazil• Eventual elimination of the Greenland ice sheet, and resulting
rise in sea level of about 7 meters (about 23 feet), or more• Minimum of 20 to 30% of species at risk of extinction if
average global warming exceeds 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C• Heavy rainfall in some areas and drought or far less in others,
including the Monsoon season• Soil degradation, desertification and shift in grain growing
regions• Increasing acidification of the world’s oceans, leading to a
massive die-off of marine life• Significant life threats to at least 20% of the world population,
or about 2 billion people
Changes in Arctic Sea Ice
Changes in Intensity of Rainfall
IPCC (2007)
Regions of disproportionate changes in heavy (95% fractile)and very heavy (99% fractile) precipitation.
Effects on Precipitation
Increasing Droughts (1990 – 2002)
IPCC (2007)
Rising Sea Levels
Early Estimates of Sea Level Rise
New Estimates of Sea-Level Rise
Fresh Water Supplies
Background colour shows mean change in annual runoff (%)between present and 2081-2100 for SRES A1B
IPCC WG-II (2007)
Pressure on Fresh Water Resources
14% of world agricultural area is irrigation
40% of agricultural production comes from irrigated agriculture
80% of freshwater abstraction is used for irrigation
Increasing problems with drying out and pollution of rivers and lakesWater consumption for irrigation
Suitability for Rain-fed Cereals 1961-90
Suitability For Rain-fed Cereals to 2080
Crop Yields and Temperature Change
IPCC WG-II (2007)
Without adaptation
With adaptation
Dry Lands• 10-20% of dry lands are subject to degradation• Dry land populations are among the most
ecologically, socially and politically marginalised populations
Soil Degradation
Erosion
Reduction i soil carbon (humus)
Compaction (especially in subsoil)
Pollution
Salinisation
Desertification
Many of these processesare exacerbated byclimate change
Scientific Results and Observations (1)
• Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century
• 1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern Hemisphere
• Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC per decade
• 10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s
• Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th century
• Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
Scientific Results and Observations (2)
• Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15% since 1950s
• 40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades
• Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century
• 0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation during 20th century
• 2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
Increases Under All Scenarios
• Global-average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4 ºC to 5.8 ºC by 2100• Rate of warming likely unprecedented in at least the last 10,000 years• Land areas will warm more than the global average• Global average precipitation will increase over the 21st century• Very likely to be more intense precipitation events• Snow cover and sea-ice projected to decrease further• Glaciers and icecaps projected to continue widespread retreat• Global mean sea-level projected to increase by 9 cm to 88 cm by 2100
Geo-Engineering Options
Effectiveness
Cost
Risk
Low Effectiveness High Cost
High Effectiveness Low Cost
Land-based reflectors (urban)
Land-based reflectors (desert)
Space-based reflectors
CO2 Capture(artificial trees)
Stratospheric Sunshade
Cloud seeding
Ocean fertilizationForestation
How Mediators Can Help Save the Planet (1)
• The problems we now face, of which climate change is only one, can no longer be solved locally, or even by a consortium of the largest nation-states.
• There are no international organizations, including the United Nations, that are presently capable of solving them.
• None of these problems can be solved through force or litigation.
• Bitter conflicts and diverse opinions are widespread between nations, political groups and environmental organizations over whether these problems actually exist, who is responsible for them, and how to solve them.
• These conflicts are blocking us from reaching agreements, finding solutions, working preventatively or addressing them in time.
• The dispute resolution mechanisms currently in place are incapable of resolving them quickly or deeply.
• If we do not solve them fully and in time, hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people will die, thousands of species will become extinct, and the Earth may become uninhabitable.
How Mediators Can Help Save the Planet (2)
• These problems will only increase as population and technology grow and we become more interconnected and interdependent.
• The only way we can solve these problems and increase our chances of surviving is to build our capacity to communicate across differences, agree on solutions and implement them through voluntary international collaboration.
• To improve our capacity for voluntary collaboration, we need to reduce the systemic sources of chronic conflict and resistance to change worldwide.
• We therefore need to reduce poverty and inequality, find alternatives to unregulated market competition, and increase political democracy.
• To do any of these successfully, we need to vastly increase skills in cross-cultural communication, prejudice reduction and bias awareness, creative informal problem solving, group facilitation, public dialogue, collaborative negotiation, mediation, conflict resolution systems design, and similar methods.
• To do these, we need an organization that is able to develop, organize, and channel the energies and skills of mediators world-wide.
“We will have to repent in this generation not merely for the vitriolic words or actions of the bad people, but for the appalling silence of the good people. We must come to see that human
progress never rolls in on wheels of inevitability. It comes through the tireless efforts and persistent work of men … and
without this hard work time itself becomes an ally of the forces of social stagnation. We must use time creatively, and forever realize that the
time is always ripe to do right.”
Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
“What are we waiting for? A woman? Two
trees? Three flags? Nothing. What are
we waiting for?”
Andre Breton