CONFIDENTIAL 1

Climate Adaptation Forum Environmental Business Council of New England

UMASS Boston Sustainable Solutions Lab

November 17, 2017

Susanne DesRoches NYC Mayor’s Office of Recover and Resiliency

CONFIDENTIAL 2

Hurricane Sandy 44 lives lost

$19 billion in damages and lost economic activity

Thousands of New Yorkers were displaced from homes

51 square miles (17% of NYC land mass) flooded

88,700 buildings were inundated, including 23,400 businesses

2,000,000 people lost power, many for weeks and longer

Major disruptions to lives, neighborhoods, and infrastructure demonstrated our vulnerabilities to coastal storms and the risks of a changing climate.

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CONFIDENTIAL 3

Challenges: A Growing Population New York City is on track to reach 9 million residents by 2040, as our population is aging and transforming to be more diverse.

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CONFIDENTIAL 4

Challenges: Aging Infrastructure The ten-year estimate (in $ millions) anticipated in capital spending by the City of New York and regional agencies.

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CONFIDENTIAL 5

Challenges: Poverty and Income Inequality In 2015, nearly half of New York City residents lived in poverty or near poverty.1

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23.6%

Near Poverty

15.8%

Poverty

5.7%

Extreme Poverty

45.1% Total

Source: The CEO Poverty Measure, 2013

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Near poverty defined as below 150 percent poverty threshold

Poverty defined as $31,156 threshold for a family of four

Extreme poverty defined as below 50 percent poverty threshold

CONFIDENTIAL 6

Challenges: A Changing Climate As we look toward the future, we must grapple with the impacts of climate change on our city, as we witnessed firsthand during Hurricane Sandy.

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CONFIDENTIAL 7

Mean annual temperatures to increase

– 4.1 to 5.7°F* by the 2050s

– 5.3 to 8.8°F* by the 2080s

Heat waves

– Triple by 2080s from 2 to 6 per year

Hot days above 90⁰

– Triple by 2050s from 18 to 57 days

Latest Climate Projections - Heat

Source: NPCC, 2015 - *Middle range (25th to 75th percentile) of model-based projections.

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Birmingham, AL currently has 52 days above 90 degrees

CONFIDENTIAL 8 * Middle range (25th to 75th percentile) of model-based projections.

Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase

– 4 to 11 percent* by the 2050s

– 5 to 13 percent* by the 2080s

Latest Climate Projections - Precipitation

Source: NPCC, 2015 8

CONFIDENTIAL 9

Sea level is expected to rise

– 11 to 21 inches* by the 2050s

– 18 to 39 inches* by the 2080s,

– 6 feet by 2100 (high estimate)

Projected sea level changes alone would increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding (absent any change in storms themselves)

Latest Climate Projections – Sea Level Rise

Source: NPCC, 2015 - *Middle range (25th to 75th percentile) of model-based projections

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FEMA PFIRM 2015, Future Floodplain 2050s (1% with 30” of SLR)

CONFIDENTIAL 10 FEMA 2007 FIRMs 100-year Floodplain

Source: FEMA

100-year Floodplain*

1983 FIRMs

Residents 218,000

Jobs 214,000

Buildings 36,000

1-4 Family 26,000

Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 377M

FIRMs not significantly updated since 1983

City called on FEMA to initiate new maps in 2007

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FEMA 2007 Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs)

* Numbers are rounded for clarity

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Projected floodplain for the 2020s and 2050s

Source: FEMA; CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities

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FEMA 2013 Preliminary FIRMs 100-year Floodplain

Projected 2020s 100-year Floodplain

Projected 2050s 100-year Floodplain

Projected 2080s 100-year Floodplain

Projected 2100 100-year Floodplain

100-year Floodplain*

2013 PFIRMs

2050s Projected

Change (%)

Residents 400,000 808,900 102%

Jobs 290,800 555,700 91%

Buildings 71,500 118,000 65%

1-4 Family 57,400 89,000 55%

Floor Area (Sq Ft.)

534M 855M 42%

* Numbers are rounded for clarity

Over 171,000 buildings and 1.2 million New Yorkers projected to live in the floodplain by 2100

CONFIDENTIAL 12 12

Top Tier Heat Vulnerable Neighborhoods

CD 316 Brownsville, Ocean Hill

CD 203 Morrisania, Crotona Park East

CD 202 Hunts Point, Longwood

CD 201 Melrose, Mott Haven, Port Morris

CD 206 East Tremont, Belmont

CD 303 Bedford Stuyvesant

CD 110 Central Harlem

CD 304 Bushwick

CD 205 University Hts., Fordham, Mt. Hope

CD 317 East Flatbush, Rugby, Farragut

Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for New York City Community Districts

Low vulnerability

Moderate vulnerability

High vulnerability

Low-moderate vulnerability

Moderate-high vulnerability

Additionally, there are vulnerable populations living in all of the city’s neighborhoods

Environmental factors include daytime summer surface temperature, green space

Social factors including poverty and race

CONFIDENTIAL 13

OneNYC On April 22nd, 2015, Mayor Bill de Blasio released a new long-term strategic plan to address our most pressing challenges.

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The plan envisions how we want our City to look in ten years and beyond

OneNYC recognizes a historical moment: in 2025, we will celebrate our 400th

anniversary and begin our fifth century

We commit to the goals and initiatives designed to achieve that long-term vision

CONFIDENTIAL 14

OneNYC: Our Four Visions This plan is organized across four strategic visions for growth, equity, sustainability, and resiliency.

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Our Growing, Thriving City

Our Just and Equitable City

Our Sustainable City

Our Resilient City

CONFIDENTIAL 15

Building on a Strong Foundation OneNYC builds on earlier efforts to take action on climate change during the prior administration.

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Pre-2014

CONFIDENTIAL 16

Post-2014 Initiatives OneNYC broadened the focus by integrating other commitments, plans, and priority programs developed prior to the release of the resilience strategy.

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2014 2015

Ten-Year

Capital

Strategy

CONFIDENTIAL 17

OneNYC: Resiliency Following Hurricane Sandy, a global conversation on resiliency emerged. Here’s what it means to us in New York City.

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Our neighborhoods, economy, and public services will be ready to withstand and emerge stronger from the impacts of climate change and other 21st century threats

Our Resilient City

CONFIDENTIAL 18

Resiliency Secured $300 million for new coastal

resiliency investments Achieved key milestones on major coastal

projects Released Preliminary Resiliency Design

Guidelines

Released NYC Cool Neighborhoods program in June 2017

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OneNYC: 2017 Progress More than two years in, this strategy has served to organize many actions across the city, with much progress already in hand.

CONFIDENTIAL 19

OneNYC: Rockaway Boardwalk A 5.5 mile boardwalk is integrated with dunes and coastal defenses to protect over 100,000 residents of the Rockaway peninsula.

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CONFIDENTIAL 20

OneNYC: NYC Cool Neighborhoods A pioneering $100 million program of trees, roof coatings, and other measures targeted to the most heat vulnerable residents and neighborhoods in NYC.

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CONFIDENTIAL 21 21

Energy Transportation

Social Infrastructure Water/Sewer/Waste Telecommunications

Working Groups 57 Stakeholders

City Agencies State Agencies

Federal Agencies

Private Sector

Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding w/SLR Average Temperature

Heat Waves & Hot Days Extreme Hurricane Wind

Precipitation & Inland Flooding Drought

Climate Variables

Updated risk assessment for infrastructure in NYC Design standards

DHS: Regional Resiliency Assessment on infrastructure dependencies

Outputs

OneNYC: CC Adaptation Task Force Collaborate with 50+ regional public and private partners to advance policies in support of regional infrastructure adaptation

CONFIDENTIAL 22

Con Edison Storm Hardening Collaborative

$1B storm hardening investments

Majority completed by end of 2017

Launched comprehensive Climate Change Study

National Grid Storm Hardening Collaborative underway

Rate increase process regulated utilities

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Utilities Storm Hardening

CONFIDENTIAL 23

OneNYC: Climate Resiliency Guidelines

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Establishes consistent design standard for using climate data across City agencies to account for:

• extreme heat; • extreme precipitation; • coastal storms; and • sea level rise.

nyc.gov/resiliency

CONFIDENTIAL 24

Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines

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NYC BUILDING CODE AND

ENGINEERING STANDARDS

NEW YORK CITY PANEL ON CLIMATE

CHANGE (NPCC)

Forward-looking climate data

• NOAA Atlas 14 • NWS Climate Normals • ASHRAE Climate Zones • Etc.

Historic climate data

City Agency Guidelines

ORR Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines

CONFIDENTIAL 25

NYC’s Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines

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Critical facility Non-critical facility

Freeboard

+6”

+16”

+28”

+36”

24”

To 2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

2100+

Base Flood Elevation

(FEMA 1%)

Freeboard

+16”

+28”

+36”

12”

To 2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

2100+

+6”

Base Flood Elevation + Criticality/Freeboard + Useful Life/SLR

CONFIDENTIAL 26

nyc.gov/OneNYC @NYClimate