Understanding the Modern World: Essential Questions

Class 1, July 8: Why did Western Europe lead, war, and unify?

Joe Coffeyjoecoffey@outlook.com

coffeynotes.com

Topics• Why “Understanding the Modern World?”• What is the significance of regions and time

periods chosen?• What fundamental factors shape the world?• What’s been the importance of Western Europe?• Is the decline of Western Europe exaggerated?

Introduction and welcome

• Welcome and thanks for participating in the class. I especially want to extend a welcome

to those who may be joining my class for the first time. I also want to welcome back those

who have participated over the past 15 years.

• The class format will be the same as my previous Zoom class, with lectures emailed in

advance and presented in a PowerPoint format with questions and discussion at the end of

the presentation.

• Volunteers of the Senior Learners are supporting each session and can assist should we

encounter technical difficulties

• I appreciate the opportunity provided by the Senior Learners for offering this class and its

follow-up next month

• “Understanding the world” is a big topic and necessarily will require me to focus on certain

time periods and on certain parts of the world, which I will explain shortly

• The world is not just a random assortment of totally independent isolated islands

unaffected by the world beyond their borders.

• No nation can conceive or produce everything. Thus, with the death of distance, the world

has become globalized.

• What goes on outside a country increasingly impacts what goes on inside it and thus the

importance of understanding the world.

• Covid-19 pandemic is the latest shocking reminder of the interconnections and common

interests of our modern world.

1

Understanding the modern world:

Essential questions

• Two 4-week sessions

• Must register at seniorlearners.online

• $10 fee each session

• #I -10:30 AM-12 PM

1) July 8

2) July 15

3) July 22

4) July 29

• #II -10:30 AM-12 PM

1) August 5

2) August 12

3) August 19

4) August 26

2

Why did Europe lead, war, and unify?

Why did British Empire dominate then decline?

Why did Soviet Union spread and collapse?

Why has Latin America so fascinating yet so frustrating?

Why is Middle East so anti-west?

Why is Sub-Sahara Africa still so impoverished?

Why is India finally rising?

Will China oust America?

Understanding the Modern World: Essential Questions

• The modern world, beginning around 1500, has been shocked by unexpected events, Fall of Berlin Wall, 9/11, Arab Spring, Rise of China …of which Covid-19 is the latest.

• Covid-19 crisis is a shocking reminder of the multiplicity of interconnections and turning points of our modern world.

• These lectures will focus on 8 major regions and countries which include about 80% of world’s population and economy

• We will review 7 of key turning points in the world • We will conclude in Part II with a crucial question for the future of US

and the world: Will China oust America and rule the world?

2

Why understanding Western Europe is essential to understanding the world

◼ Center of the world for past 500 years

◼ By 1914, controlled 84% of world

◼ Led because of enlightenment, advanced technology, commercial savvy and eagerness to explore

◼ Discoveries of New World, ocean route to India

◼ Formation of new world order of nation-states in Treaty of Westphalia

◼ French Revolution overthrew ancient feudal society

◼ Cold War between capitalism and communism.

◼ Center of enlightenment and scientific revolution

◼ Founded world’s best integration of nations - European Union

3

Why understanding Western Europe is essential to understanding the world

◼ Center of the world for most of the past 500 years - by 1914, controlled 84%

◼ Led world because of its advanced technology of navigation and shipbuilding, commercial savvy and eagerness to explore

◼ Led by Portugal and Spain initially by the ocean voyages of Columbus and da Gama, but soon England and the Dutch followed behind.

◼ Religious battleground of Reformation and the hundreds of European wars

◼ It led the formation of new world order of nationstates in Treaty of Westphalia that eventually displaced empires

◼ French Revolution overthrew ancient feudal society

◼ Center of enlightenment and scientific revolution

◼ Pax Britannica in 19th century ruled over a period of relative peace and prosperity.

◼ Battleground in Cold War between capitalism and communism.

◼ Founded world’s greatest integration of nations - European Union

3

Significance of countries/regions

◼ World powers of W Europe, UK, Soviet Union, China, India and US –For past 500 years of dominant influence as they have risen and fallen

◼ Three special regions South America, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa

◼ Middle East - energy resources, lagging development, lack of democracy and political conflict

◼ Sub-Saharan Africa - 54 countries, former European colonies, source of slaves, poorest region and instability

◼ Latin America – Abundant resources, mostly democratic, medium income, high inequality

◼ Encompasses 80% - Apologies for omissions –Canada, Scandinavia, Japan, Australia, Balkans …

4

Significance of the countries and regions

◼ World powers of Western Europe, UK, Russia or Soviet Union, China, India and US –For past 500 years of dominant influence as they have risen and fallen

◼ Three special regions South America, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa

◼ Middle East - energy resources, lagging development, lack of democracy and political conflict

◼ Sub-Saharan Africa - 54 countries, former European colonies, source of slaves, poorest region and instability

◼ Latin America – Abundant resources, mostly democratic, medium income, high inequality

• Apologies for omissions – Canada, Scandinavia, Japan, Australia, Balkans …

4

Factors shaping & driving world economy

5

History

In all countries and societies, the present is determined within a framework of mind and territory bequeathed from the past. – Odd Arne Westad, Shambaugh(ed), China and the World, - p25

Especially, Inclusive ones

Three fundamental factors shaping and driving the world

• Geography includes:

• Climate - shapes crops and farm animals and suitability for humans

• Physical topography - proximity to coasts, rivers, and mountain

passes;

• Energy and resource availability - deposits of copper, iron, gold, and

other minerals

• Technology involves

• Science, education, communication, transportation

• Social Institutions

• Cultural practices - religion , language , philosophical ideas,

gender relations .

• Legal practices - law , courts, law enforcement

• Economic organizations – markets, corporations, state

enterprises and control, taxation

• Political rules - constitution, state power, freedom

Adapted from Jeffrey D. Sachs, The Ages of Globalization, 2020

Lucky LatitudesTemperate climate zone

6

Lucky Latitudes - Temperate climate zone

• Geography is not destiny, but it’s important

• Geographical differences affect the environment in which the individuals live

and influence the productivity of agriculture, availability of natural resources,

and possibly constrain human behavior or attitudes

• Geography and location have an impact, but it’s not the sole key to

understanding the world

• As it does not change over time but economic growth does

• Some nations in similar geographies grow while others do not.

• Some nations well endowed with natural resources do not grow

whereas others such as Japan or Switzerland or South Korea do

grow despite very limited natural resources

• Clearly, both technology and social institutions are important. The change in

institutional structures

6

Understanding the world –Evolution of Powers

◼ 1500-1820: (Iberian & French centuries) Discovery of new world and ocean route to India, French Revolution, Declaration of Independence

◼ 1820-1913: (British Century) Relative peace in Europe after Napoleonic Wars, British Industrial Revolution and Second Industrial Revolution, rise of British Empire, Independence of Latin America, Scramble for Africa

◼ 1913-1950: (American Century) WW I and II, Russian Revolution, Great Depression, rise of US to world prominence

◼ 1950-1990: (American Century) Miracle recovery of Europe and Japan, Cold War, decolonization, Mao victory in China, population boom

◼ 1990-2008: (American Century)Collapse of Soviet Union, expansion of democracy, opening of China, US becomes superpower, increase of globalization, advance of computers and communications

◼ 2008-present: (Asian Century) Great Recession, Euro Crisis, Russia and China assertiveness, Pandemic crisis, Digital Age death of distance, population bust, democratic recession

7

Understanding the world – Evolution of Powers

◼ 1500-1820: (Iberian & French centuries) Discovery of new world and ocean route to India, French Revolution, Declaration of Independence

◼ 1820-1913: (British Century) Relative peace in Europe after Napoleonic Wars, British Industrial Revolution and Second Industrial Revolution, rise of British Empire, Independence of Latin America, Scramble for Africa

◼ 1913-1950: (American Century) WW I and II, Russian Revolution, Great Depression, rise of US to world prominence

◼ 1950-1990: (American Century) Miracle recovery of Europe and Japan, Cold War, decolonization, Mao victory in China, population boom

◼ 1990-2008: (American Century)Collapse of Soviet Union, expansion of democracy, opening of China, US becomes superpower, increase of globalization, advance of computers and communications

◼ 2008-present: (Asian Century) Great Recession, Euro Crisis, Russia and China assertiveness, Pandemic crisis, Digital Age death of distance, population bust, democratic recession

7

Remember: World can change unexpectedly and repeatedly

◼ 1900: London was capital of world and seemed a peaceful prosperous Europe would rule the world

◼ 1920: Europe torn apart by war, Russian, German and Ottoman Empires were gone, and peripheral U.S. and Japan now were powers

◼ 1940: Germany had conquered France and communism conquered Russia

◼ 1960: Germany had been crushed, Europe was split by Cold War, U.S. emerged as superpower and Maoist China was a fanatical danger

◼ 1980: U.S. repelled by North Korea, expelled from Iran and allied with

China to check the Soviets

◼ 2000: USSR had collapsed, China was soaring, world was prosperous and peaceful, and geopolitics were secondary to economics

◼ Decade from hell: 9/11, long U.S. war in Middle East, financial crisis,

political polarization, EU Crisis … world turned on its head again

8

Source: George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Doubleday, 2009, pages 1-3

Remember: World can change unexpectedly and repeatedly

◼ 1900: London was capital of world and seemed a peaceful prosperous Europe

would rule the world

◼ 1920: Europe torn apart by war, Russian, German and Ottoman Empires were

gone, and peripheral U.S. and Japan now were powers

◼ 1940: Germany had conquered France and communism conquered Russia

◼ 1960: Germany had been crushed, Europe was split by Cold War, U.S. emerged

as superpower and Maoist China was a fanatical danger

◼ 1980: U.S. repelled by North Korea, expelled from Iran and allied with China to

check the Soviets

◼ 2000: USSR had collapsed, China was soaring, world was prosperous and

peaceful, and geopolitics were secondary to economics

◼ Decade from hell: 9/11, long U.S. war in Middle East, financial crisis, political

polarization, EU Crisis … world turned on its head again

8

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1990 2000 2008

World GDP Share Major Regions 1500-2008 (1990 Int. GK$ from Maddison)

China India Western Europe

US USSR/Russia Latin America

Middle East & N Africa Sub-Sahara Africa

Importance of nations realign over time

Importance of nations realign over time

• From 1500-1820, before much Industrialization and the rise of Europe, GDP per

capita was similar around the world, so a nation’s GDP was based upon its

population. Hence, India and China, the most populous countries accounted for

50% of global GDP

• From 1820-1914, the period of industrialization in Europe, relative peace after the

Napoleonic Wars, and the expansion of the US, world GDP shares shifted from the

east to the west. Latin America, newly decolonized and beginning to develop, got

economic boost from wartime demands for commodities. China had it’s “century of

humiliation.” India suffered through colonization and deindustrialization.

• From 1913 to 1950, the troubled period of WW I and WW II, and the Great

Depression, the shares of Western Europe declined, and the US, although suffered

the Great Depression, gained GDP share during WW II. Also, USSR, although

suffering war deaths, was largely unaffected by market crash of Depression

• From 1950-90, Western Europe made a miraculous recovery from WW II, thanks in

part to the US Marshall Plan. But India suffered through the turmoil of

decolonization and the partition of Pakistan and Bangladesh. China, now under

Mao and communism, suffered the famine of “Great Leap Forward” and “Cultural

Revolution.”

• From 1990-2008, after Cold War, China opened its economy and began to grow

rapidly, and India launched economic reforms. Russia, went through a severe

economic times after collapse of USSR.

9

10

Country/Region Population GDP

(US$)

GDP, PPP

(intl $)

GDP per

capita

(US$)

GDP per

capita, PPP

(intl $)

Trade in

US$

Extreme

poverty

($1.90/day

PPP)

China 18% 13% 19% 71% 101% 8% 1%

India 18% 3% 8% 19% 43% 3% 28%

Sub-Saharan Africa 14% 2% 3% 15% 22% 2% 57%

Latin America 8% 7% 8% 88% 93% 6% 4%

Middle East & North Africa6% 4% 7% 72% 115% 6% 0%

European Union 6% 23% 14% 336% 237% 34% 0%

United States 4% 22% 15% 501% 349% 10% 0%

Russia 2% 2% 3% 108% 161% 2% 0%

United Kingdom 1% 3% 2% 398% 254% 4% 0%World 7.6 bil $82.7 tril. $121.2 tril. $ 10,821 $ 15,957 $49.2 tril 734 mil

Share of World Economy and Population for Major Countries and

Regions, 2018

Source: World Bank Development Indicators data download 5/15/2020. GDP in constant $2010 US $ and PPP in Constant 2011 Intl $. Most poverty data for 2015.

Big difference in size and wealth of nations

Big difference in size and wealth of nations

• This chart updates the comparison of our countries and regions to 2018, the

latest information available on an international basis and expands the

comparisons to include population, GDP per capita, trade, and poverty.

• China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa are the large regions population wise,

but all have world average or lower GDP per capita.

• India and sub-Saharan Africa, in particular have the lion share of the world’s

extreme poverty.

• Latin America, with 8% of the world population has about the same share of

GDP and trade.

• Russia, which only has less than 3% of world population, GDP and trade.

• Depending upon which yardstick is used whether nominal GDP or

purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP, is either the first or second ranking

world power to China

• Enormous differences between the rich and the poor parts of the world.

• The European Union, has the largest share of world trade.

• The world in 2018 had 7.6 billion people and it won’t be long until it hits 8

billion, although population growth globally is slowing substantially.

10

W. Europe’s control of world

◼ Europe led because of advanced technology of navigation and shipbuilding, commercia savvy and eagerness to explore

◼ Portugal & Spain initially led - had location, ports & financing

◼ English and Dutch - not far behind with British East India Co (1600) and Dutch East India Co. (1602)

◼ But British Empire dominated because … (Topic of Class 2)11

◼ 1500: 7%

◼ 1800: 35%

◼ 1914: 84%

◼ 2020: 7%

Why Europe led?◼ 1500: controlled 7% of world

◼ 1800: 35%

◼ 1914: 84%, dominated world

◼ Class 2 - discuss #1 British Empire ruled ¼ of world population with France #2 and #3 Germany

◼ Europe led because of advanced technology of navigation and shipbuilding, commercia savvy and eagerness to explore

◼ Portugal & Spain initially led - had location, ports & financing

◼ But England and Dutch were not far behind with their British East India Co (1600) and Dutch East India Co. (1602)

11

Why W. Europe success?

12

(Lucky) Geographical Advantages• Peninsular- sea access of cheap transport• Lucky latitudes – favorable climate• East-West orientation – plant transfer • Cheap energy• Many natural borders – smaller states

People gather at the waterside

Lucky latitudes

Geography is not destiny (Japan & Switzerland are not blessed), but geography along with other factors including luck influential

Why success of W Europe?

(Lucky) Geographical Advantages• Peninsular: coastline and rivers for cheaper transport and seafood• Lucky latitudes: temperate climate favorable for farming and

living• East-West orientation: easier adaptation of plants and animals

per Jared Diamond• Cheap energy: from forests, coal, wind and water• Many natural borders: encouraged political communities of

varying sizes & competition of ideas, people, commerce …

12

Destructiveness of Great Depression

• Tanked economies, discredited liberalism and democracy • Rise of dictators – Mussolini (1922) & Hitler (1933) • League of Nations failed to resolve any major crises • Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) dictator Francisco Franco• Decline in pacifism and sense of another world war coming

13

Indicator US UK France Germany

Industrial production −46% −23% −24% −41%

Wholesale prices −32% −33% −34% −29%

Foreign trade −70% −60% −54% −61%

Unemployment 607% 129% 214% 232%

Great Depression: Change 1929–32

Source: wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Destructiveness of Great Depression (1929-39)

• Severe worldwide economic depression during the 1930s

• Started in US after stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (Back Tuesday)

• In 1929-1932, world GDP fell 15% (vs. 1% from 2008 to 2009 during Great

Recession)

• Devastated - income, tax revenue, profits, prices and international trade

• Unemployment in U.S. hit 25% and elsewhere rose as high as 33%.

• Cities around the world were hit hard - Construction virtually halted

• Germany, already in political turmoil of Nazi and communist movements, very hard

hit

• US banks ended new loans that had been funding repayments

• Moratorium on war reparations slowed the crisis

• Unemployment reached 30% in 1932, bolstering support for Nazi and

Communist parties, causing collapse of centrist Social Democratic Party.

• Hitler ran for Presidency in 1932, and lost but got Legislative majority

13Wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Why so many wars in W. Europe since 1500?

◼ 442 wars and conflicts, 120+ mil. deaths

◼ Major combatants of France & Great Britain fought 15 wars

◼ Until 1648, plagued by wars of religion

◼ Wars arise when a rising power challenges a ruling one

◼ Breakup of empires into smaller nations created wars of stronger ambitious nations with the fading empires

◼ Unnecessary WW I was caused by sleepwalking, Germany that became strong and ambitious, plus decline on Depression

◼ WW II arose from Germany’s anger over the harsh Versailles treaty terms

◼ Cold War from Stalin’s violating terms of WW II and West unwilling to fight again on Stalin’s turf

14

Why so many wars in W. Europe since 1500?

◼ 442 wars and conflicts, 120+ mil. deaths

◼ Major combatants of France & Great Britain fought 15 wars

◼ Until 1648, plagued by wars of religion

◼ Wars arise when a rising power challenges a ruling one

◼ Breakup of empires into smaller nations created wars of stronger ambitious nations with the fading empires

◼ Unnecessary WW I was caused by sleepwalking, Germany that became strong and ambitious, plus decline on Depression

◼ WW II arose from Germany’s anger over the harsh Versailles treaty terms

◼ Cold War from Stalin’s violating terms of WW II and West unwilling to fight again on Stalin’s turf

14

What explains Western Europe’s Post WW II economic miracle?

◼ Smashed German ambitious to become a world power

◼ Iron Curtain and nuclear threat, ironically, provided stability - at heavy human cost, but prodded US Marshall Plan aid and European unity

◼ US presence guaranteed capitalism and new hopes

◼ Large surpluses of labor and capacity, pent up demand and technical innovation propelled economic miracle

15Source: Ian Kershaw, To Hell and Back – Europe 1914-1949, Penguin, 2015

• Five crucial elements interacted to provide the foundations for the

unpredictable transformation:

• The end of German great power ambitions

• The impact of purging of war criminals and collaborators

• The crystallization of Europe’s division into two lasting forms

• The economic growth that was beginning to take off by the end of

1940s

• Threat of atomic and nuclear warfare

• During the period between World War I and WW II, Germany had been

ambitious to become a world power and even a dominant one, but they had

been smashed in defeat and dropped their ambition

• The purging of collaborators not only offered a degree of catharsis, but it

prevented the extreme right to poison politics

• The Iron Curtain, ironically, provided the basis for stability, albeit at a heavy

cost-the more the Soviets asserted their control-the more determined

Americans became to aid western Europe

• And thus America provided a defense umbrella and propaganda against

communism

15

W. Europe’s Miraculous Rise

had profound effects:

◼ Gave the globe a new map and worldview

◼ World was decisively and irreversible integrated

◼ Germs, plunder, invasion and trade left no land untouched

◼ Spread European institutions and ideologies

16

Upshot: Western Europe has been the instigator and engine of global progress for 500 years - albeit often marred by conflict, fundamentally was driven by freedom.

The miracle had profound effects• Gave the globe a new map and worldview• World was decisively and irreversible integrated• Germs, plunder, invasion and trade left no land untouched• Spread European institutions and ideologies

Upshot: Western Europe has been the instigator and engine of global progress for 400 years. That unprecedented progress and power, albeit often marred by conflict and conquest, fundamentally was driven by freedom.

16

Europe’s Short 20th Century with 2 Halves –To Hell & Back

I. First Half (1914-49) – World Wars

I. 1914-18: WW I – 20 million deaths

II. 1920-29: Roaring 20s

III. 1929-32: Great Depression

IV. 1940-46: WW II – 60 million deaths

V. 1946: Decolonization

II. Second Half (1950-89) – Recovery, Cold War and Collapse Soviet Union

I. 1946: Iron Curtain splits Europe

II. 1960s: W Europe miracle recovery

III. 1989: Fall of Berlin Wall and Soviet Union

17

Europe’s 20th century: 2 world wars, then 40-year Cold War

• Europe, for 100 years after end of Napoleonic wars prided itself as the

apogee of civilization

• But fell 1914-49 into barbarism

• “The European catastrophe …from 1914 to 1949, was unprecedented in human history…of upheaval and transformation. …Beginning with the outbreak of World War I through the rise of Hitler and the aftermath of the Second World War …affected the entire European continent and radically altered the course of European history.

• Followed by previously unimaginable stability and prosperity though at

heavy price of Iron Curtain division

• Collapse of Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empires after WW I and

upheavals of 1917 Russian Revolution unleashed ethnic nationalism

• Plus, especially in East hatred against Jews and Germany’s resentment

of Treaty of Versailles

Source: Ian Kershaw, To Hell and Back – Europe 1914-1949, Chapter 1

17

Horror of Holocaust: 6 million Jews dead

◼ For Hitler, Jews were principal enemies and responsible for Germany’s defeat in WW I

◼ Holocaust began 1941 in occupied Soviet territory

◼ 6 million Jews perished ~ two-thirds of Jews in Europe18

Holocaust was not a sideshow, it was central

And survivors still suffering!

Horror of Holocaust -6 million Jews dead

• For Hitler, “Jewish Bolshevism” - Jews and Communists - were the principal

enemies and responsible for Germany’s defeat in World War I

• Holocaust was not a footnote to WW II. It belonged to the center of that conflict

because it was a principal element in the decisions and statements of Hitler.

• The Jews have been persecuted and discriminated against for 2000 years.

• Slaughter of the Jews began with mass killings in German occupied Soviet territory

in 1941

• In next three years some 6 million Jews perished - perhaps two thirds of all Jews in

Europe

• Auschwitz in Poland was worst Nazi death camps - 1.5 million killed

18

John Lukacs, A Short History of the Twentieth Century and David S. Mason, A Concise History of Modern Europe, page 138-141

Consequences of WW II

◼ 60+ mil. deaths & widespread destruction

◼ Continent split by Cold War

◼ Decolonization of Middle East, Africa, India

◼ US becomes world power

◼ W Europe democratized, prospered and integrated

◼ East suffered under communism and Stalinism19

Consequences of WW II◼ 60+ mil. deaths and continent split by Cold War

◼ W Europe democratized, prospered and integrated

◼ East suffered under communism and Stalinism

◼ East capitalized on relaxed grip of Gorbechav

◼ Shockingly, Berlin Wall fell, and USSR collapsed (Class 3)

◼ East eagerly rushed to join West

◼ US had unipolar moment and globalization gushed

◼ US and EU hit by Great Recession

◼ PIGS falter but EU bails them out, then hit by refugee flood

◼ Trump distances US from EU as assertive China (class 8) and spoiler Russia challenge

19

Iron Curtain closes and Cold War opens

◼ At end WW II, Soviets controlled the East

20

◼ US complained and accused of sacrificing the East

◼ But US but had no stomach for another war on Russia’s doorstep, UK and others had no money

◼ However, Truman Doctrine drew line in Greece and Turkey and others where threatened by Soviet Communism

◼ US launched Marshall Plan, founded NATO, and provided defense umbrella for Western Europe

◼ All this and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) kept Cold War Cold

Iron Curtain closes and Cold War opens• At end WW II, Soviets controlled the East • US complained and accused of sacrificing the East• But US but had no stomach for another war on Russia’s doorstep• Eastern Europe was peripheral strategic concern• UK and W Europe were broke and devastated• However, Truman Doctrine drew line in Greece and Turkey and others

where threatened by Soviet Communism• US launched Marshall Plan, founded NATO, and provided defense

umbrella for Western Europe• All this and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) kept Cold War Cold

Source: David S. Mason, A Concise History of Modern Europe, p 148

20

Decline world GDP share, but W Europe still

top 10 Powers

21

Country

RankCountry

$ GDP

(trillion)

PPP GDP

( trillion)

1 US 21.4 20.3

— EU 18.7 18.4

2 China 14.1 27.8

3  Japan 5.2 5.5

4  Germany 3.9 4.2

5  India 2.9 11.3

6 UK 2.7 3.0

7  France 2.7 2.9

8  Italy 2.0 2.2

9  Brazil 1.8 3.3

10  Canada 1.7 2.0

11  Russia 1.6 4.2

Rest 27.1 51.7

 World 87.3 138.4

Source:wikipedia List_of_countries_by_GDP_nominal

Top 11 Countries Ranked by 2019

nominal GDP & 2020 PPP

West European shares of world GDP peaked in early 1900s and then declined

Western Europe still Great Powers

◼ EU ranks #2 to US and ahead of China using Nominal GDP but China rises to top in PPP GDP, which almost doubles China’s GDP

◼ Europe’s Big Four all rank in top 8

◼ Brazil is the only southern hemisphere country in top 11

◼ Russia GDP #11

◼ Less than Canada

◼ 7% of US

◼ India GDP not #5, greater than UK

21

“Nominal” GDP based on international exchange rates. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP, which uses national prices based on their national purchasing power for countries like China, Russia and India, may double the GDP, so therefore puts China #1. Experts debate which should be used, but my view is “nominal” is most appropriate for comparing world power, but PPP when comparing living standards.

WW I & II ended European Age

◼ WW I deadly, not short, glorious nor end of wars

◼ Russia turned red and withdrew WW I

◼ Roaring 20’s prosperity & partying after WW I

◼ But party ended in Great Depression

◼ Great Depression gave Hitler his opening

◼ Hitler caused WW II, 60+ mil. deaths and destruction

◼ US & Russia defeated Hitler; but split into Cold War

◼ European colonization ended

◼ After decades of war and depression - Age of Europe ends

22

WW I & II ended European Age • WW I deadly, not short, glorious nor end of wars

• Russia turned red and withdrew WW I

• Roaring 20’s prosperity & partying after WW I

• But party ended in Great Depression

• Great Depression gave Hitler his opening

• Hitler caused WW II, 60+ mil. deaths and destruction

• US & Russia defeated Hitler; but split into Cold War

• European colonization ended

• After decades of war and depression - Age of Europe ends

22

Centrality of Germany after 1950

Germany… did more than any other to destroy the continent during the first half of the twentieth century…. Despite its destruction, … Germany has remained at the heart of Europe’s development – central to post-war economic recovery, central to the Cold War, central to the ending of the Cold War, central to widening European integration, central to the creation of the Euro, central to the crisis of the Eurozone, … and central to … reform the European Union …. Germany has become a vital pillar of stable liberal democracy, it presides over Europe’s strongest economy, has overcome forty years of division to attain national unity, and has reluctantly acquired the mantle of European leadership.

23Source: Ian Kershaw, The Global Age, Kindle Edition.

Centrality of Germany after 1950Germany… did more than any other to destroy the continent during the first half of the twentieth century…. Despite its destruction, … at the end of the Second World War, Germany has remained at the heart of Europe’s development – central to post-war economic recovery, central to the Cold War, central to the ending of the Cold War, central to widening European integration, central to the creation of the Euro, central to the crisis of the Eurozone, … and central to … reform the European Union …. Germany has become a vital pillar of stable liberal democracy, it presides over Europe’s strongest economy, has overcome forty years of division to attain national unity, and has reluctantly acquired the mantle of European leadership. ….

Source: Ian Kershaw, The Global Age, Kindle Edition.

23

Has European Age ended?EU Nobel Peace Prize “for advancing peace, reconciliation, democracy & human rights”

◼ Size: 27 states of 447 million with common and laws

24

◼ Purpose: Create unity, especially of Germany and France, avert immense suffering and destruction caused by two world wars, ensure a lasting peace and provide world heft

◼ Impact: Boosted growth and trade, pacified border disputes, contributed to spread of democracy, especially to former Soviet satellites, and soft power complement to US

◼ Situation: Fraying at edges (Brexit), challenged by disparity of North vs. South and East, immigration, euro-skeptics

Has European Age ended?

EU: Nobel Peace Prize “for advancing peace, reconciliation, democracy & human rights in Europe”

• Size: 27 states of 447 million with common and laws • Origin: European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) of 1951• Purpose: Create unity, especially of Germany and France, avert

immense suffering and destruction caused by two world wars, ensure a lasting peace and provide world heft

• Impact: Boosted growth and trade, pacified border disputes, contributed to spread of democracy, especially to former Soviet satellites, and soft power complement to US

• Future: Fraying at edges (Brexit), challenged by disparity of North vs. South and East, immigration and by euro-skeptics for being aloof

24

Summary & Conclusion: Why did W Europe lead, war, & unify?

◼ W Europe rose and colonized 83% of world by 1900s

◼ But rivalries led to devastating World Wars

◼ US was pivotal ending the wars and aiding WW II recovery

◼ Iron Curtain divided Europe and 40-year Cold War

◼ US and NATO defense umbrella thwarted Soviet ambitions

◼ W. Europe became peaceful, democratic and unified in EU

◼ Soviet collapsed in 1991 & EU expanded eastward

◼ EU, now fraying and challenged, but arguably greatest political union in history and prime contributor to world understanding

25

Next: July 15 at 11:00 am Why did British Empire dominate then decline?

Summary & Conclusion: Why did W Europe lead, war, & unify?

• W Europe rose and colonized 84% of world by 1900s

• But rivalries led to devastating World Wars

• US was pivotal ending the wars and aiding WW II recovery

• Iron Curtain divided Europe and 40-year Cold War

• US and NATO defense umbrella thwarted Soviet ambitions

• W. Europe became peaceful, democratic and unified in EU

• Soviet collapsed in 1991 & EU expanded eastward

• EU, now fraying and challenged, but arguably greatest political union in history and prime contributor to world understanding

25

Next: July 15 at 11:00 am Why did British Empire decline?

Recommended Books for Understanding the World

26

Appendix of Supplementary information

Recommended Books for Understanding the World

1. Richard Haass, The World – A Brief Introduction, Penguin Press, 2020

(Albeit criticized for being bland, is an excellent review of world

geopolitics by an experienced and well-informed foreign policy expert.)

2. David S. Mason, A Concise History of Modern Europe, 2019 (This relatively brief 200-page history of the past 200 years of Europe provides an excellent overview of the French Revolution and Napoleon, Industrial Revolution World War I and II and the collapse of communism.)

3. J. M. Roberts and O. A. Westad, The History of the World, Sixth

Edition, Oxford University Press, 2013 (This update of the late J.M.

Roberts, one of UK’s most distinguished world historians, by Westad,

also a very distinguished historian and author of The Cold War, is one

the best and most comprehensive world histories.)

4. Jeffrey D. Sachs, The Ages of Globalization, 2020 (Sachs, a Columbia

University economist, known for his works on poverty and advocacy

of the UN Millennium project, has just published a rather brief, but very

insightful world history of globalization.)

26

European Timeline for Understanding the World (1492-1833)

1492:Columbus discovery of America and beginning of Columbian Exchange

1488: Vasco da Gama's circumnavigation of India and Africa

1500: Portuguese navigator Pedro Álvares Cabral claims Brazil for Portugal

1502: First reported African slaves in The New World

1519: Hernán Cortés begins conquest of Mexico for Spain

1532: Francisco Pizarro begins conquest of Peru ( Inca Empire) for Spain

1557: Habsburg Spain declares bankruptcy then also in 1560, 1575 and 1596

1588: Defeat of the Spanish Armada by English - Spanish naval power falls to British

1600: Formation of East India Company by British

1648: Peace of Westphalia ends Thirty Years' War and introduces integrity nation state

1712: Newcomen’s steam engine begins Industrial Revolution in Britain

1776: US Declaration of Independence and Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations

1789–1804: French Revolution, ends feudal system, establishes equality

1815: Napoleon defeated at Waterloo, French Century (1715-1815) ends & British (1815-1914) begins

1833: Slavery abolished in British Empire

27

Appendix of Supplementary information

27

28

China India

Western

Europe US

USSR/

Russia

Latin

America

Middle

East &

N

Africa

Sub-

Sahara

Africa

1500 24.9% 24.4% 15.5% 0.3% 3.4% 2.9% 5.3% 6.7%

1600 29.0% 22.4% 17.1% 0.2% 3.4% 1.1% 4.8% 6.0%

1700 22.3% 24.5% 19.1% 0.1% 4.4% 1.7% 4.1% 6.1%

1820 33.0% 16.1% 20.4% 1.8% 5.4% 2.2% 2.9% 3.8%

1870 17.1% 12.2% 30.4% 8.9% 7.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2%

1900 11.1% 8.6% 31.7% 15.8% 7.8% 3.6% 2.5% 2.6%

1913 8.8% 7.5% 30.8% 18.9% 8.5% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1%

1950 4.6% 4.2% 24.1% 27.3% 9.6% 7.8% 2.9% 2.9%

1990 7.8% 4.0% 19.5% 21.4% 7.3% 8.3% 4.6% 2.1%

2000 11.8% 5.2% 17.8% 21.9% 3.5% 8.4% 4.8% 2.0%

2008 17.5% 6.7% 14.5% 18.6% 4.4% 7.9% 5.0% 2.2%

World GDP Share Major Regions 1500-2008 (1990 Int. GK$ from Maddison)

Appendix of Supplementary information

28