chp a viable alternative for ohio
DESCRIPTION
CHP a Viable Alternative for Ohio. A Manufacturer’s Point of View by Chris Lyons. Solar Turbines has Extensive CHP Experience. Over 14,000 Units Installed Worldwide Over 1.4 Billion Operating Hours Installations in 93 Countries. Overview of University Installed CHP Projects. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CHP a Viable Alternative for OhioA Manufacturers Point of ViewbyChris Lyons
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Solar Turbines has Extensive CHP ExperienceOver 14,000 Units Installed WorldwideOver 1.4 Billion Operating Hours Installations in 93 Countries
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Overview of University Installed CHP ProjectsKent State UniversityUniversity of Cincinnati
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Kent State University CHP Project1 x 5 MW GT w/ 100,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 7 MW GT w/ 32,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 500 Ton Absorption Chiller1 x 2000 Ton ST Drive ChillerProject Drivers: Replace older coal boilers, energy savings and security
General Questions to All Manufacturers
University of Cincinnati CHP Project2 x 14 MW GT w/ 70,000 lb/h HRSG1 x 20 MW ST Project Drivers: Reliability, cost savings and emissions
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Natural Gas Volatility is on DeclineSource = US DOE Energy Information AdministrationForecastSpark Spread = CHP Business CaseForecast Spark SpreadHistorical$/1000ft3 Cent kW-h
Sheet1
Date1967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Avg. Commercial Natural Gas Price$0.74$0.73$0.74$0.77$0.82$0.88$0.94$1.07$1.35$1.64$2.04$2.23$2.73$3.39$4.00$4.82$5.59$5.55$5.50$5.08$4.77$4.63$4.74$4.83$4.81$4.88$5.22$5.44$5.05$5.40$5.80$5.48$5.33$6.59$8.43$6.63$8.40$9.43$11.34$12.00$11.32$11.99$5.74$6.05$6.01$6.13$6.14$6.20$6.27$6.37$6.52$6.70$6.87$6.75$6.56$6.62$6.72$7.05$7.33$7.61$7.88$8.09$8.25$8.40
Avg. Commercial Retail Electricity Price2.12.12.12.12.22.32.433.53.74.14.44.75.56.36.977.137.277.27.087.047.27.347.537.667.747.737.697.647.597.417.267.437.927.898.038.178.679.469.6510.28$10.06$9.49$9.70$9.80$10.01$10.21$10.47$10.76$11.06$11.42$11.82$12.15$12.34$12.57$12.84$13.18$13.56$13.91$14.24$14.56$14.83$15.12
Gas Vs. Electricity Hist_Foreca
0.742.1
0.732.1
0.742.1
0.772.1
0.822.2
0.882.3
0.942.4
1.073
1.353.5
1.643.7
2.044.1
2.234.4
2.734.7
3.395.5
46.3
4.826.9
5.597
5.557.13
5.57.27
5.087.2
4.777.08
4.637.04
4.747.2
4.837.34
4.817.53
4.887.66
5.227.74
5.447.73
5.057.69
5.47.64
5.87.59
5.487.41
5.337.26
6.597.43
8.437.92
6.637.89
8.48.03
9.438.17
11.348.67
129.46
11.329.65
11.9910.28
5.737325668310.0566062927
6.04583215719.4927959442
6.00986671459.6976299286
6.13434171689.7992830276
6.137126922610.0109233856
6.198741912810.2070589066
6.271110534710.4726791382
6.37281274810.7565488815
6.51909494411.0629024506
6.700133800511.4211969376
6.868356704711.8150691986
6.74804115312.1518411636
6.556819915812.339392662
6.619869232212.5719156265
6.722784519212.8399705887
7.054139137313.1799583435
7.332981586513.5631008148
7.606761932413.9069223404
7.87656068814.2392530441
8.094784736614.5643100739
8.25270271314.8303852081
8.40255737315.1198101044
Avg. Commercial Natural Gas Price
Avg. Commercial Retail Electricity Price
Year
General Questions to All Manufacturers
What will Future Electric Prices Be ?
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Factors that Impact CHP EconomicsTypical 15 MW Fuel Bill =$6.6 millionTypical Purchased Electricity @$0.09/kwh=$ 10 million Typical cost = $0.5 millionTypical cost = $0.9 millionTypically 96% to 98%Typically $1200 to $1600/kW
Tornado Chart
Combined Heat & Power Tornado Chart
CHP Efficiency
Spark Spread
Availability
Initial Capital Expense
Maintenance
Utility Standby Charge
-25-20-15-10-50510152025
Variation in NPV, %
Note - input parameters were each varied +/- 5%.
Data
Tornado Chart Generation
NPV Variation
Parameter-5%0%+5%
Spark Spread, %202530
Availability, %9095100
CHP Efficiency, %71.976.981.9
Maintenance, $/year390.6372353.4
Cap Ex., $k10,2159,7299,243(5.0)
Standby Charge, $/kw/month3.6753.503.325
26.8126.8153.6
CHP Efficiency13,65319,19923,94771.1100124.728.89024.73
Spark Spread17,18319,19921,21489.5100110.510.50010.5021.0
Availability17,50519,19920,89291.2100108.88.8208.8217.6
Cap Ex.18,71319,19919,68597.5100102.52.5302.535.1
Maintenance19,03619,19919,36199.2100100.80.8500.841.7
Standby Charge19,06219,19919,33899.3100100.70.7100.721.4
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Coke Oven Gas CHP in China
General Questions to All Manufacturers
LFG CHP in South Carolina
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Toledo Digester & LFG GTCC Plant
General Questions to All Manufacturers
LA County 35 MW Digester Gas Plant CHP plant that has been operating for over 15 years
General Questions to All Manufacturers
GenOn plans to deactivate 3140 MW of coal-fired generating capacity by 2015 GenOn expects to deactivate 3,140 MWs of coal-fired generating capacity in PJM between June 2012 and May 2015 because forecasted returns on investments necessary to comply with environmental regulations are insufficient. February 29, 2012Study: Closing Arizona coal plant could cost $18B February 29, 2012A new study from the Arizona State University L. William Seidman Research Institute projects that the closure of the Navajo Generating Station could have a dramatic economic impact on Arizona, according to the Phoenix Business Journal.The massive 2.25-gigawatt coal-fired power plant is the second-largest power plant in Arizona, behind only the Palo Verde nuclear plant, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.nFederal court rejects delay of coal-fired power plant's emissions controls
A federal appeals court has ruled that the owners of the San Juan Generating Station must continue with plans to install emissions controls. The 1,800 MW coal-fired power plant near Farmington, N.M. was ordered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last fall to install strong selective catalytic reduction (SCR) equipment to cut its output of fine particulate matter and other emissions in order to meet federal standards. PNM, which owns about half the San Juan plant, has estimated the cost to retrofit the generating system to be between $750 million and $1 billion. The EPA estimates the cost to be much lower around $345 million. March 5, 2012
What will the Future of Coal Be ?
General Questions to All Manufacturers
Coal Generation on Decline
Chart1
80.5596347814226.9598718306710.18878019132154.4491448087330.9973799181940.16395087435405.19274081970
72.0142363562239.2585940548722.63962249322142.4283972603334.86301810962084.82258630145514.720656876712000
74.386852264.4533736164774.48922901372156.7633863014175.79835583562236.82399764385453.4551475342
70.3684344932288.3219179452659.2153901372209.3828849315180.1067477262456.4103584115524.5358271781
64.236432623344.5382260656679.08010357922202.7552868852126.34589316942412.51526868855425.686448388
61.8094102466395.2840829863736.48696978082188.6426986301106.67534095892523.22923323294810.6965658082
66.2140336438458.0082001644697.81351219182210.8720563288101.53698493152706.01978945215061.069238548
61.4094417808536.1387850411867.9719802742160.073273972677.50485923292774.39319243844788.1529955616
65.5266934973562.5004016393726.98856693992212.674576502775.91702680332946.86703278694707.8532595628
67.981053589603.3016673973727.26642301372265.788621917882.37973336993010.79970410964739.2293780822
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
thousand megawatt-hours per day
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
Other sources
Renewables
Hydropower
Nuclear
Petroleum
Natural gas
Coal
Axis
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors
23.9%
23.3%
21.4%
21.6%
20.1%
18.8%
17.9%
24.6%
26.1%
26.2%
41.2%
41.7%
42.5%
44.8%
44.4%
48.2%
48.5%
49.0%
49.8%
49.6%
Contents
Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Short-Term Energy Outlook Figures, February 2012
Figure 1 - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price
Figure 2 - U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
Figure 3 - U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
Figure 4 - Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
Figure 5 - U.S. Natural Gas Prices
Figure 6 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption
Figure 7 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
Figure 8 - World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
Figure 9 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
Figure 10 - World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production
Figure 11 - OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Figure 12 - Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Figure 13 - U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production
Figure 14 - U.S. Crude Oil Stocks
Figure 15 - U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
Figure 16 - U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories
Figure 17 - U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption
Figure 18 - U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports
Figure 19 - U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage
Figure 20 - U.S. Coal Consumption Growth
Figure 21 - U.S. Annual Coal Production
Figure 22 - U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks
Figure 23 - U.S. Total Electricity Consumption
Figure 24 - U.S. Residential Electricity Price
Figure 25 - U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors
Figure 26 - U.S. Renewable Energy Supply
Figure 27 - U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share of Gross Domestic Product
Figure 28 - U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth
Figure 29 - U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days
Figure 30 - U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days
Figure 31 - U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions
Figure 3 - U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
Figure 7 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
Figure 6 - World Liquid Fuels Consumption
Figure 9 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
Figure 11 - OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Figure 12 - Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Figure 13 - U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production
Figure 14 - U.S. Crude Oil Stocks
Figure 15 - U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
Figure 16 - U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories
Figure 17 - U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption
Figure 19 - U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage
Figure 20 - U.S. Coal Consumption Growth
Figure 21 - U.S. Annual Coal Production
Figure 22 - U.S. Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks
Figure 24 - U.S. Residential Electricity Price
Figure 27 - U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share of Gross Domestic Product
Figure 29 - U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days
Figure 30 - U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days
Figure 31 - U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions
Figure 10 - World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production
Figure 8 - World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
Figure 28 - U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth
Figure 5 - U.S. Natural Gas Prices
Figure 1 - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price
Figure 2 - U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
Figure 4 - Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Figure 25 - U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors
Figure 23 - U.S. Total Electricity Consumption
Figure 18 - U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports
Figure 26 - U.S. Renewable Energy Supply
Fig1
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Change the confidence interval by entering a
percentage between 0% and 100%95%95%
HistoricalSTEOSettleImpliedDays toConfidence IntervalConfidence Interval
MonthPriceForecastPriceVolatilityExpiryLowerUpperLowerUpper
Jan 201189.170.000.000.000.00
Feb 201188.580.000.000.000.00
Mar 2011102.760.000.000.000.00
Apr 2011109.530.000.000.000.00
May 2011100.900.000.000.000.00
Jun 201196.240.000.000.000.00
Jul 201197.300.000.000.000.00
Aug 201186.330.000.000.000.00
Sep 201185.520.000.000.000.00
Oct 201186.320.000.000.000.00
Nov 201197.130.000.000.000.00
Dec 201198.530.000.000.000.00
Jan 2012100.270.000.000.000.00
Feb 2012100.00100.000.000.000.000.00
Mar 2012100.0098.1690.000.000.000.00
Apr 2012100.0098.5229.6%2980.94119.9280.94119.92
May 2012100.0098.9331.0%5175.28130.0275.28130.02
Jun 2012100.0099.2932.3%7370.63139.5870.63139.58
Jul 2012100.5099.5632.6%9367.53146.7767.53146.77
Aug 2012100.5099.7132.7%11464.84153.3564.84153.35
Sep 2012100.5099.8332.8%13662.23160.1462.23160.14
Oct 2012101.0099.9232.7%15760.23165.7760.23165.77
Nov 2012101.00100.0232.6%17958.38171.3458.38171.34
Dec 2012101.00100.0932.2%19857.19175.1657.19175.16
Jan 2013102.00100.0131.9%22055.75179.4055.75179.40
Feb 2013102.0099.8931.3%24154.83181.9954.83181.99
Mar 2013102.0099.7430.8%26153.91184.5253.91184.52
Apr 2013103.0099.5230.4%28153.07186.6553.07186.65
May 2013103.0099.2929.9%30352.19188.8952.19188.89
Jun 2013103.0099.0329.6%32451.34191.0351.34191.03
Jul 2013104.0098.7129.2%34550.58192.6550.58192.65
Aug 2013104.0098.3929.0%36649.63195.0649.63195.06
Sep 2013104.0098.073870.000.000.000.00
Oct 2013106.0097.824090.000.000.000.00
Nov 2013106.0097.584300.000.000.000.00
Dec 2013106.0097.3627.5%45047.41199.9547.41199.95
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 2, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Where:
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval
Fig1
89.17405444054440544
88.58405754057540575
102.76406034060340603
109.53406344063440634
100.9406644066440664
96.24406954069540695
97.3407254072540725
86.33407564075640756
85.52407874078740787
86.32408174081740817
97.13408484084840848
98.53408784087840878
100.27409094090940909
1001004094040940
4096910098.15840969
4100010098.522119.921880685280.9408960945
4103010098.932130.017725576275.2785097618
4106110099.29139.579618935470.6299685813
41091100.599.556146.767946509967.5310745411
41122100.599.714153.352136582864.8369303328
41153100.599.828160.141244545762.2302493794
4118310199.924165.767434419260.233819815
41214101100.018171.34002514958.384491979
41244101100.09175.164154748157.1921128179
41275102100.012179.401717935355.7542049157
4130610299.892181.989503718854.8295998401
4133410299.738184.521202708453.9107078102
4136510399.524186.652208272353.0667526931
4139510399.286188.887985630352.188124952
4142610399.032191.033197424951.3383912126
4145610498.714192.654265967650.5800053119
4148710498.394195.056199600849.6337940338
4151810498.07441518
4154810697.82241548
4157910697.57641579
4160910697.364199.950442578847.4104901882
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 2, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
dollars per barrel
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price
Fig2
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Prices (dollars per gallon)
RetailRefinerPrice
MonthGasolineCost of OilDifference
Jan 20083.042.060.98
Feb 20083.032.120.91
Mar 20083.242.330.91
Apr 20083.462.530.93
May 20083.772.800.96
Jun 20084.053.031.02
Jul 20084.063.070.99
Aug 20083.782.711.07
Sep 20083.702.361.35
Oct 20083.051.771.28
Nov 20082.151.270.88
Dec 20081.690.900.79
Jan 20091.790.890.90
Feb 20091.920.911.01
Mar 20091.961.090.87
Apr 20092.051.160.89
May 20092.271.330.93
Jun 20092.631.561.07
Jul 20092.531.511.01
Aug 20092.621.621.00
Sep 20092.551.610.94
Oct 20092.551.720.84
Nov 20092.651.770.88
Dec 20092.611.740.87
Jan 20102.721.800.92
Feb 20102.641.780.87
Mar 20102.771.840.93
Apr 20102.851.920.92
May 20102.841.731.11
Jun 20102.731.731.00
Jul 20102.731.760.97
Aug 20102.731.780.95
Sep 20102.711.760.95
Oct 20102.801.850.95
Nov 20102.861.930.93
Dec 20102.992.050.95
Jan 20113.092.100.99
Feb 20113.212.161.05
Mar 20113.562.441.12
Apr 20113.802.681.12
May 20113.912.571.34
Jun 20113.682.481.20
Jul 20113.652.491.16
Aug 20113.642.331.31
Sep 20113.612.371.24
Oct 20113.452.401.05
Nov 20113.382.550.83
Dec 20113.272.490.78
Jan 20123.382.550.83
Feb 20123.472.530.95
Mar 20123.532.531.00
Apr 20123.562.511.05
May 20123.652.501.15
Jun 20123.632.501.13
Jul 20123.632.491.13
Aug 20123.652.491.16
Sep 20123.632.491.13
Oct 20123.542.491.05
Nov 20123.492.491.00
Dec 20123.442.490.95
Jan 20133.462.480.98
Feb 20133.462.480.99
Mar 20133.502.481.02
Apr 20133.552.501.05
May 20133.672.501.17
Jun 20133.662.501.16
Jul 20133.672.521.14
Aug 20133.682.521.16
Sep 20133.672.521.14
Oct 20133.632.571.05
Nov 20133.592.571.02
Dec 20133.552.570.98
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
MonthForecast
Jan 20120
Jan 20124.5
Fig2
3.042752.05904761900.983702381
3.02752.12119047624.50.9063095238
3.2442.33238095240.9116190476
3.4582.5259523810.932047619
3.765752.8009523810.964797619
4.05423.03142857141.0227714286
4.06153.07214285710.9893571429
3.77852.70809523811.0704047619
3.70262.3551.3476
3.051251.76714285711.2841071429
2.1471.26976190480.8772380952
1.6870.89690476190.7900952381
1.788250.89166666670.8965833333
1.922750.90833333331.0144166667
1.95861.0850.8736
2.0491.16142857140.8875714286
2.26551.33238095240.9331190476
2.63061.56476190481.0658380952
2.52651.51380952381.0126904762
2.61641.61880952380.9975904762
2.5541.61285714290.9411428571
2.551251.71619047620.8350595238
2.65141.77333333330.8780666667
2.607251.73690476190.8703452381
2.7151.79714285710.9178571429
2.6441.77571428570.8682857143
2.77161.84357142860.9280285714
2.848251.92452380950.9237261905
2.83621.731.1062
2.73151.731.0015
2.728751.75547619050.9732738095
2.72981.77571428570.9540857143
2.7051.75833333330.9466666667
2.80051.85166666670.9488333333
2.8591.92976190480.9292380952
2.9932.04642857140.9465714286
3.09482.10190476190.9928952381
3.2112.16309523811.0479047619
3.561252.43880952381.1224404762
3.79952.68214285711.1173571429
3.90622.56714285711.3390571429
3.682.48166666671.1983333333
3.650252.49238095241.1578690476
3.63942.32619047621.3132095238
3.611252.36642857141.2448214286
3.4482.39690476191.0510952381
3.383752.55214285710.8316071429
3.265752.48809523810.7776547619
3.382.55357142860.8264285714
3.4749982.52976190480.9452360952
3.5315162.52976190481.0017540952
3.5575932.51190476191.0456882381
3.6452972.51.145297
3.6316722.51.131672
3.6270992.4940476191.133051381
3.6506822.4940476191.156634381
3.6266712.4940476191.132623381
3.5359792.48809523811.0478837619
3.486062.48809523810.9979647619
3.4425632.48809523810.9544677619
3.4602092.47619047620.9840185238
3.4640722.47619047620.9878815238
3.5010192.47619047621.0248285238
3.5531612.51.053161
3.6704532.51.170453
3.6649492.51.164949
3.6659332.52380952381.1421234762
3.6818422.52380952381.1580324762
3.668572.52380952381.1447604762
3.6255952.57142857141.0541664286
3.5887682.57142857141.0173394286
3.5465962.57142857140.9751674286
dollars per gallon
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil
Forecast
Price difference
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
Fig3
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Prices (dollars per gallon)
RefinerPrice
MonthDieselCost of OilDifference
Jan 20083.312.061.25
Feb 20083.382.121.26
Mar 20083.882.331.55
Apr 20084.082.531.56
May 20084.432.801.62
Jun 20084.683.031.65
Jul 20084.703.071.63
Aug 20084.302.711.59
Sep 20084.022.361.67
Oct 20083.581.771.81
Nov 20082.881.271.61
Dec 20082.450.901.55
Jan 20092.290.891.40
Feb 20092.200.911.29
Mar 20092.091.091.01
Apr 20092.221.161.06
May 20092.231.330.89
Jun 20092.531.560.96
Jul 20092.541.511.03
Aug 20092.631.621.02
Sep 20092.631.611.01
Oct 20092.671.720.96
Nov 20092.791.771.02
Dec 20092.751.741.01
Jan 20102.851.801.05
Feb 20102.791.781.01
Mar 20102.921.841.07
Apr 20103.061.921.13
May 20103.071.731.34
Jun 20102.951.731.22
Jul 20102.911.761.16
Aug 20102.961.781.18
Sep 20102.951.761.19
Oct 20103.051.851.20
Nov 20103.141.931.21
Dec 20103.242.051.20
Jan 20113.392.101.29
Feb 20113.582.161.42
Mar 20113.902.441.47
Apr 20114.062.681.38
May 20114.052.571.48
Jun 20113.932.481.45
Jul 20113.912.491.41
Aug 20113.862.331.53
Sep 20113.842.371.47
Oct 20113.802.401.40
Nov 20113.962.551.41
Dec 20113.862.491.37
Jan 20123.832.551.28
Feb 20123.912.531.38
Mar 20123.912.531.38
Apr 20123.922.511.41
May 20123.912.501.41
Jun 20123.922.501.42
Jul 20123.922.491.42
Aug 20123.942.491.44
Sep 20123.922.491.43
Oct 20123.942.491.45
Nov 20123.942.491.45
Dec 20123.922.491.43
Jan 20133.912.481.44
Feb 20133.902.481.42
Mar 20133.912.481.43
Apr 20133.982.501.48
May 20134.002.501.50
Jun 20134.012.501.51
Jul 20134.022.521.49
Aug 20134.032.521.50
Sep 20134.002.521.48
Oct 20134.052.571.48
Nov 20134.062.571.48
Dec 20134.002.571.43
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
MonthForecast
Jan 20120
Jan 20125
Fig3
3.3082.05904761901.248952381
3.3772.121190476251.2558095238
3.8812.33238095241.5486190476
4.0842.5259523811.558047619
4.4252.8009523811.624047619
4.6773.03142857141.6455714286
4.7033.07214285711.6308571429
4.3022.70809523811.5939047619
4.0242.3551.669
3.5761.76714285711.8088571429
2.8761.26976190481.6062380952
2.4490.89690476191.5520952381
2.2920.89166666671.4003333333
2.1950.90833333331.2866666667
2.0921.0851.007
2.221.16142857141.0585714286
2.2271.33238095240.8946190476
2.5291.56476190480.9642380952
2.541.51380952381.0261904762
2.6341.61880952381.0151904762
2.6261.61285714291.0131428571
2.6721.71619047620.9558095238
2.7921.77333333331.0186666667
2.7451.73690476191.0080952381
2.8451.79714285711.0478571429
2.7851.77571428571.0092857143
2.9151.84357142861.0714285714
3.0591.92452380951.1344761905
3.0691.731.339
2.9481.731.218
2.9111.75547619051.1555238095
2.9591.77571428571.1832857143
2.9461.75833333331.1876666667
3.0521.85166666671.2003333333
3.141.92976190481.2102380952
3.2432.04642857141.1965714286
3.38782.10190476191.2858952381
3.5842.16309523811.4209047619
3.90452.43880952381.4656904762
4.0642.68214285711.3818571429
4.0472.56714285711.4798571429
3.9332.48166666671.4513333333
3.9052.49238095241.4126190476
3.862.32619047621.5338095238
3.8372.36642857141.4705714286
3.7982.39690476191.4010952381
3.9622.55214285711.4098571429
3.8612.48809523811.3729047619
3.83262.55357142861.2790285714
3.9129772.52976190481.3832150952
3.9085872.52976190481.3788250952
3.9169152.51190476191.4050102381
3.9092012.51.409201
3.9163952.51.416395
3.9185472.4940476191.424499381
3.9357992.4940476191.441751381
3.9203392.4940476191.426291381
3.9365042.48809523811.4484087619
3.937112.48809523811.4490147619
3.921392.48809523811.4332947619
3.9146012.47619047621.4384105238
3.8954492.47619047621.4192585238
3.909932.47619047621.4337395238
3.975162.51.47516
3.9988552.51.498855
4.0081412.51.508141
4.0176952.52380952381.4938854762
4.0281822.52380952381.5043724762
4.0042992.52380952381.4804894762
4.0482442.57142857141.4768154286
4.056282.57142857141.4848514286
4.004292.57142857141.4328614286
dollars per gallon
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes.
Retail diesel fuel
Crude oil
Forecast
Price difference
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
Fig4
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Change the confidence interval by entering a
percentage between 0% and 100%95%95%
HistoricalSTEOSettleImpliedDays toConfidence IntervalConfidence Interval
MonthPriceForecastPriceVolatilityExpiryLowerUpperLowerUpper
Jan 20114.490.000.000.000.00
Feb 20114.090.000.000.000.00
Mar 20113.970.000.000.000.00
Apr 20114.250.000.000.000.00
May 20114.310.000.000.000.00
Jun 20114.550.000.000.000.00
Jul 20114.420.000.000.000.00
Aug 20114.050.000.000.000.00
Sep 20113.900.000.000.000.00
Oct 20113.560.000.000.000.00
Nov 20113.240.000.000.000.00
Dec 20113.170.000.000.000.00
Jan 20122.670.000.000.000.00
Feb 20122.972.970.000.000.000.00
Mar 20123.142.5862.3%151.923.481.923.48
Apr 20123.222.7151.9%371.844.011.844.01
May 20123.332.8146.0%571.834.311.834.31
Jun 20123.302.8843.6%791.784.651.784.65
Jul 20123.272.9442.6%1001.744.971.744.97
Aug 20123.382.9742.0%1211.685.241.685.24
Sep 20123.472.9842.5%1441.595.581.595.58
Oct 20123.623.0242.9%1631.545.941.545.94
Nov 20123.823.1740.3%1861.616.261.616.26
Dec 20124.013.4535.5%2071.846.481.846.48
Jan 20134.113.5834.0%2271.906.731.906.73
Feb 20134.063.5832.6%2481.906.751.906.75
Mar 20134.003.5532.5%2671.846.841.846.84
Apr 20133.983.5130.9%2871.846.701.846.70
May 20133.993.5330.1%3091.846.781.846.78
Jun 20134.013.5629.8%3311.826.961.826.96
Jul 20134.003.6029.4%3511.827.121.827.12
Aug 20134.003.6229.1%3731.817.251.817.25
Sep 20134.023.6229.4%3951.767.451.767.45
Oct 20134.113.6629.4%4151.757.661.757.66
Nov 20134.213.7527.9%4371.837.721.837.72
Dec 20134.353.9525.8%4562.007.802.007.80
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 2, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Where:
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval
Fig4
4.49405444054440544
4.09405754057540575
3.97406034060340603
4.25406344063440634
4.31406644066440664
4.55406954069540695
4.42407254072540725
4.05407564075640756
3.9407874078740787
3.56408174081740817
3.24408484084840848
3.17408784087840878
2.67409094090940909
2.9656312.9656314094040940
409693.1372892.58163.4767259551.9169352564
410003.2202172.71464.00714142171.838980057
410303.3311572.80824.31269427451.8285523476
410613.2981162.87924.64514253681.7846153427
410913.2727892.93984.97215637451.7381641664
411223.3772882.9665.24396674181.6775766196
411533.4706712.97525.58104937371.5860485094
411833.6238523.02145.93778960421.5374168788
412143.8168813.17226.25519993581.6087180175
412444.0093623.44966.47665787621.8373272739
412754.1108963.57526.73391455991.8981611552
413064.0585643.57926.75040711591.8977629675
413343.9952783.55166.84134655141.843768981
413653.9825223.5076.69562973111.8368771115
413953.9904153.53046.78326915381.8374214376
414264.0087763.56226.9603164941.8230879086
414563.9970893.60387.11767235511.8246659571
414873.9956763.62087.24536036151.8094603975
415184.0246543.62187.45443620571.7596817356
415484.1141873.66167.66153812851.7499507717
415794.2138063.75367.71571443821.8260801476
416094.3535743.95127.79798520812.0020532257
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 2, 2012
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
dollars per million Btu
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
Fig5
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Natural Gas Prices
(Dollars per thousand cubic feet)
MonthResidentialHenry HubWellhead
Jan 200812.248.227.38
Feb 200812.588.808.02
Mar 200813.139.708.63
Apr 200814.4910.498.87
May 200816.3311.619.96
Jun 200818.9113.0710.36
Jul 200820.7711.4210.79
Aug 200820.178.508.21
Sep 200818.417.906.71
Oct 200815.456.945.64
Nov 200813.806.885.23
Dec 200812.845.995.94
Jan 200912.495.404.60
Feb 200912.264.653.70
Mar 200911.984.083.38
Apr 200911.683.603.18
May 200912.863.953.23
Jun 200914.263.913.38
Jul 200915.273.493.45
Aug 200915.613.233.37
Sep 200914.803.062.98
Oct 200911.784.123.83
Nov 200911.483.774.20
Dec 200910.425.504.66
Jan 201010.566.005.69
Feb 201010.695.485.30
Mar 201010.984.424.70
Apr 201011.974.154.10
May 201013.124.264.24
Jun 201014.864.944.27
Jul 201016.214.774.44
Aug 201016.654.454.38
Sep 201015.644.013.83
Oct 201013.373.534.05
Nov 201010.883.824.12
Dec 20109.884.384.68
Jan 20119.794.624.37
Feb 201110.004.214.34
Mar 201110.194.093.95
Apr 201111.034.384.05
May 201112.134.444.12
Jun 201114.144.694.20
Jul 201115.544.554.27
Aug 201115.984.174.20
Sep 201115.064.023.82
Oct 201112.423.673.62
Nov 201110.593.343.35
Dec 20119.673.273.14
Jan 20129.722.752.89
Feb 20129.523.052.97
Mar 20129.733.232.98
Apr 201210.533.323.00
May 201211.813.433.05
Jun 201213.613.403.01
Jul 201215.143.372.93
Aug 201215.833.483.03
Sep 201215.483.573.11
Oct 201212.973.733.21
Nov 201211.213.933.41
Dec 20129.944.133.60
Jan 201310.064.233.70
Feb 201310.214.183.69
Mar 201310.444.123.64
Apr 201311.214.103.58
May 201312.454.113.49
Jun 201314.274.133.61
Jul 201315.844.123.71
Aug 201316.624.123.71
Sep 201316.294.153.73
Oct 201313.774.243.72
Nov 201311.884.343.82
Dec 201310.554.483.96
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
MonthForecast
Jan 20120
Jan 201225
Fig5
12.248.22478697.380
12.588.800328.0225
13.139.695398.63
14.4910.48680088.87
16.3311.60711129.96
18.9113.065786910.36
20.7711.421288910.79
20.178.50435988.21
18.417.9040146.71
15.456.93861565.64
13.86.88419045.23
12.845.98991355.94
12.495.3977154.6
12.264.65017193.7
11.984.07832623.38
11.683.59960283.18
12.863.9474753.23
14.263.91446353.38
15.273.48513893.45
15.613.23423.37
14.83.0627052.98
11.784.12293553.83
11.483.76984.2
10.425.50024.66
10.566.00495.69
10.695.47965.3
10.984.41874.7
11.974.15094.1
13.124.26424.24
14.864.9444.27
16.214.76894.44
16.654.44964.38
15.644.00673.83
13.373.53294.05
10.883.82134.12
9.884.37754.68
9.794.62474.37
104.21274.34
10.194.08913.95
11.034.37754.05
12.134.43934.12
14.144.68654.2
15.544.55264.27
15.984.17154.2
15.064.0173.82
12.423.66683.62
10.593.33723.35
9.6667963.26513.14
9.7228182.75012.89
9.5205093.05462.967727
9.727993.2314072.976798
10.53173.3168233.001299
11.809233.4310913.045973
13.60873.3970593.00717
15.138923.3709722.925514
15.83013.4786063.026528
15.479263.5747913.112506
12.968443.7325683.21408
11.214373.9313873.406406
9.9448334.1296433.598532
10.061544.2342233.70248
10.214094.1803213.694884
10.438894.1151363.637606
11.214414.1019973.57862
12.454454.1101283.491815
14.265694.1290393.612713
15.843744.1170023.70631
16.620024.1155463.707425
16.287324.1453943.731554
13.769954.2376123.720802
11.882024.340223.822868
10.548984.4841813.962549
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
dollars per thousand cubic feet
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price
Forecast
U.S. Natural Gas Prices
Fig6
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Annual Consumption (Million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (Million barrels per day)
ChinaU.S.OtherWorldChinaU.S.OtherWorld
20046.43720.73155.38982.557
20056.69520.80256.58984.0870.2580.0711.2001.529
20067.26320.68757.18285.1330.568-0.1150.5931.046
20077.53420.68057.59185.8050.271-0.0070.4090.673
20087.94819.49857.99085.4360.414-1.1820.399-0.369
20098.54118.77157.37984.6910.592-0.727-0.611-0.745
20109.39219.18058.55587.1260.8510.4091.1752.435
20119.83018.83959.26487.9330.438-0.3410.7090.806
201210.36218.86760.02489.2530.5330.0280.7601.320
201310.92118.95660.86790.7440.5580.0900.8431.491
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
7.5-3
7.59
Fig6
0.257959980.07108032911.200414914284.0866682364-3
0.56788453-0.11474245750.592760714185.1325710239
0.27075323-0.00704023010.408893096785.8051771196
0.4141923-1.18241445020.399311640785.4362666102
0.5922789128-0.7265633389-0.610860784184.6911214
0.85108874720.40872588771.175458488987.1263945237
0.438202625-0.34118586850.709326526587.9327378068
0.53253495760.02765497780.760022670289.2529504124
0.55838525390.08956323590.843168855790.744067758
Total consumption
Annual growth
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
million barrels per day
million barrels per day
China
United States
Other Countries
Total consumption
Forecast
World Liquid Fuels Consumption
Fig7
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Annual Consumption (Million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (Million barrels per day)
2010201120122013201120122013
OECD*46.1045.6145.4545.64-0.49-0.160.19
Non-OECD Asia19.2020.0620.8021.430.850.740.63
FSU and Eastern Europe5.165.335.415.510.170.080.09
Other16.6516.9317.5918.170.280.660.58
World87.1387.9389.2590.740.811.321.49
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Forecast
1.5-1
1.52.5
Fig7
-0.49291401670.85429239210.16655179990.2784131078-1
-0.16134734680.74434531960.08080277840.65641185452.5
0.1915138940.62562652470.09393716330.5800397636
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
million barrels per day
* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OECD*
Non-OECD Asia
Former Soviet Union
Other
Forecast
World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth(change from previous year)
Fig8
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Annual Production (Million barrels per day)Production Growth (Million barrels per day)
Region / Country2010201120122013201120122013
OPEC Countries35.31435.66336.54737.1460.3490.8840.599
North America16.16416.59816.95017.2140.4340.3520.264
Canada3.4933.6483.8103.9820.1560.1610.172
Mexico2.9832.9652.8912.830-0.018-0.074-0.061
United States9.6889.98510.25010.4030.2960.2650.153
Russia and Caspian Sea12.99113.08613.16313.3220.0950.0770.159
Russia10.13710.22110.04610.0540.084-0.1750.008
Azerbaijan1.0410.9891.0711.066-0.0510.082-0.005
Kazakhstan1.6101.6531.8011.9370.0420.1480.136
Turkmenistan0.2030.2230.2440.2650.0200.0210.021
Latin America4.7764.8425.0795.2940.0660.2360.215
Argentina0.7870.7580.7680.760-0.0290.010-0.009
Brazil2.7172.6912.8633.024-0.0260.1710.162
Colombia0.8000.9310.9911.0480.1310.0600.057
Other Latin America0.4720.4620.4570.461-0.010-0.0060.005
North Sea3.7323.4023.4863.379-0.3300.084-0.107
Norway2.1342.0162.0672.112-0.1170.0510.044
United Kingdom1.3191.1271.1740.975-0.1920.047-0.199
Other North Sea0.2800.2590.2450.293-0.021-0.0140.047
Other Non-OPEC14.12713.83713.86114.184-0.2900.0230.323
World Total87.10487.42989.08590.5400.3251.6561.454
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
1.5-1
1.51.5
Fig8
0.34878055590.0953746620.43415269180.0662497113-0.3297083226-0.2896049028-1
0.8840578610.07668372220.35194181560.23614451060.08397323690.02336783411.5
0.59938971260.15943392540.26425793270.2151571383-0.10727248860.3233155158
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Forecast
million barrels per day
World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth(change from previous year)
OPEC countries
Russia and Caspian Sea
North America
Latin America
North Sea
Other Non-OPEC
Forecast
Fig9
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Annual Production (Million barrels per day)Production Growth (Million barrels per day)
2010201120122013201120122013
United States9.699.9810.2510.400.2960.2650.153
Canada3.493.653.813.980.1560.1610.172
Kazakhstan1.611.651.801.940.0420.1480.136
Brazil2.722.692.863.02-0.0260.1710.162
Colombia0.800.930.991.050.1310.0600.057
China4.274.294.434.510.0200.1370.084
Vietnam0.350.320.360.38-0.0230.0370.022
Azerbaijan1.040.991.071.07-0.0510.082-0.005
India0.930.950.940.950.019-0.0030.006
Oman0.870.890.880.880.018-0.0080.007
Malaysia0.670.610.640.68-0.0580.0320.044
Other North Sea0.280.260.250.29-0.021-0.0140.047
Gabon0.240.250.240.240.003-0.002-0.007
Australia0.550.480.550.54-0.0720.069-0.008
Egypt0.660.680.670.650.015-0.009-0.024
Norway2.132.022.072.11-0.1170.0510.044
Syria0.400.330.290.36-0.067-0.0470.070
Russia10.1410.2210.0510.050.084-0.1750.008
Mexico2.982.972.892.83-0.018-0.074-0.061
Sudan0.510.430.210.34-0.085-0.2170.125
United Kingdom1.321.131.170.97-0.1920.047-0.199
Other Non-OPEC6.146.066.126.14-0.0770.0610.021
Total Non-OPEC51.7951.7752.5453.39-0.0240.7720.855
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Fig9
0.29643845010.26524242150.1529031575
0.15567214470.16111868870.1723962101
0.04233858540.14816782390.1359965593
-0.0255181950.17105896660.1619540803
0.1306214180.06017821660.0571808599
0.01989508270.1373443880.0841301487
-0.02313768770.03708404420.0223190654
-0.05130804560.082293668-0.0054528818
0.0187960483-0.00338327170.0055236446
0.0184973524-0.0080996810.0070370066
-0.05799595020.03167220650.0436519649
-0.0209786624-0.01368481880.0472929759
0.002634004-0.0023013026-0.0066115402
-0.0723465710.0685981349-0.007858822
0.015077294-0.0089571869-0.0237640985
-0.11703913550.05102888020.0442910289
-0.0672769364-0.04667895430.069734628
0.0841993048-0.17504725190.0078287213
-0.0179579031-0.0744192946-0.0610414349
-0.0849740128-0.21698215960.1254972315
-0.19169052470.0466291755-0.1988564934
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
million barrels per day
2011
2012
2013
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth (change from previous year)
Fig10
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Non-OPECWorldWTIChange from Previous Year
SupplyDemandPriceNon-OPECWorldWTI
QuarterDate(Million bbls per day)($ per bbl)SupplyDemandPrice
2008-Q11/1/0850.2986.6997.94
2008-Q24/1/0850.0186.06123.95
2008-Q37/1/0849.2384.94118.05
2008-Q410/1/0849.9184.0758.35
2009-Q11/1/0950.1883.3842.90-0.11-3.32-55.03
2009-Q24/1/0950.0983.9959.450.08-2.07-64.50
2009-Q37/1/0950.4885.3668.201.250.42-49.85
2009-Q410/1/0951.1386.0076.061.211.9317.71
2010-Q11/1/1051.6085.6278.641.422.2535.74
2010-Q24/1/1051.6486.3377.791.542.3418.34
2010-Q37/1/1051.5587.9176.051.072.557.85
2010-Q410/1/1052.3888.6085.101.252.609.04
2011-Q11/1/1151.9886.9793.500.381.3514.86
2011-Q24/1/1151.3187.03102.22-0.320.7024.43
2011-Q37/1/1151.3988.9289.72-0.161.0113.66
2011-Q410/1/1152.3988.7893.990.010.178.90
2012-Q11/1/1252.3088.43100.090.321.466.59
2012-Q24/1/1252.4888.58100.001.161.55-2.22
2012-Q37/1/1252.5389.75100.501.150.8310.78
2012-Q410/1/1252.8490.23101.000.451.467.01
2013-Q11/1/1353.1490.12102.000.841.691.91
2013-Q24/1/1353.2490.25103.000.761.673.00
2013-Q37/1/1353.2691.24104.000.731.493.50
2013-Q410/1/1353.9391.34106.001.091.115.00
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
LineForecast
12.5-100
12.5100
Fig10
-3.315763557-0.107522794-55.0333333333-100
-2.07434029570.0834507939-64.5033333333100
0.41874097391.2455579469-49.85
1.93409044641.214307194117.7133333333
2.24904095071.418905556935.7366666667
2.34039412461.543575758118.34
2.54540146291.06653340367.8533333333
2.60117613771.24844051579.0366666667
1.34772457030.380046029714.8633333333
0.703595485-0.322260493624.4333333333
1.0109298707-0.159158665813.6633333333
0.17377554070.01275501058.8966666667
1.46254038750.32455325316.5866666667
1.54784917621.1607988477-2.2233333333
0.82935617981.146362702310.7833333333
1.45556802950.45380683427.0066666667
1.68954809460.84051427521.91
1.67105133180.76041735623
1.4900866770.72565452423.5
1.11115783731.08906066885
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
millions of barrels per day
dollars per barrel
World oil consumption (left axis)
Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)
Forecast
World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production(change from previous year)
Fig11
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Surplus
Capacity
Year(Million bbls per day)
20014.07
20025.54
20031.92
20041.27
20051.00
20061.42
20072.07
20081.37
20093.93
20103.51
20113.00
20123.58
20133.83
2001-2011 average2.65
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)
LineAxis
11.50
11.57
Fig11
2.64535898584.06589894520
5.53840021377
1.9213902192
1.2739478197
1.0021917808
1.4208767123
2.0674931507
1.3654236123
3.9311273223
3.5078034008
3.0043956671
3.5758385874
3.8305205479
Forecast
Note: Shaded area represents 2001-2011 average (2.6 million barrels per day)
million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
2001-2011 average
Surplus Capacity
Axis
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Fig12
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Days2007 - 2011
SupplyLowHighRange
Jan 20075453618
Feb 20075151587
Mar 20075252597
Apr 20075453608
May 20075554638
Jun 20075454606
Jul 20075454616
Aug 20075454628
Sep 20075454607
Oct 20075252608
Nov 20075151609
Dec 20075151576
Jan 20085353618
Feb 20085151587
Mar 20085352597
Apr 20085353608
May 20085454638
Jun 20085554606
Jul 20085554616
Aug 20085754628
Sep 20085754607
Oct 20085552608
Nov 20085751609
Dec 20085651576
Jan 20095853618
Feb 20095851587
Mar 20095952597
Apr 20096053608
May 20096354638
Jun 20096054606
Jul 20096154616
Aug 20096254628
Sep 20096054607
Oct 20095952608
Nov 20096051609
Dec 20095651576
Jan 20106153618
Feb 20105851587
Mar 20105752597
Apr 20106053608
May 20106254638
Jun 20106054606
Jul 20106054616
Aug 20106054628
Sep 20105854607
Oct 20106052608
Nov 20105851609
Dec 20105651576
Jan 20115953618
Feb 20115651587
Mar 20115752597
Apr 20116053608
May 20116154638
Jun 20115954606
Jul 20116054616
Aug 20115854628
Sep 20115854607
Oct 20115852608
Nov 20115751609
Dec 20115751576
Jan 20126053618
Feb 20125751587
Mar 20125852597
Apr 20126053608
May 20126154638
Jun 20126054606
Jul 20126054616
Aug 20125954628
Sep 20125954607
Oct 20125852608
Nov 20125851609
Dec 20125651576
Jan 20135853618
Feb 20135651587
Mar 20135652597
Apr 20135853608
May 20136054638
Jun 20135854606
Jul 20135854616
Aug 20135854628
Sep 20135754607
Oct 20135752608
Nov 20135751609
Dec 20135551576
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
MonthForecast
Jan 201240
Jan 201270
Fig12
54.30066855852.63710067537.917976226840
51.276043710650.72809824017.167155963570
52.020666503752.02066650376.8072523565
53.987193722152.57757842317.5807217529
55.106680523654.44547269028.0660914525
54.209050675654.20905067566.2411725754
54.457541799654.45754179966.2712396188
53.592461325553.59246132557.9593921049
53.716310596153.71631059616.7778818307
52.201275251552.20127525157.9520349618
50.844377083750.84437708378.9900817427
51.152435523651.15243552365.6738938828
52.637100675352.63710067537.9179762268
50.728098240150.72809824017.1671559635
53.341832617752.02066650376.8072523565
52.577578423152.57757842317.5807217529
54.445472690254.44547269028.0660914525
55.040077527854.20905067566.2411725754
55.255270628654.45754179966.2712396188
57.134357174753.59246132557.9593921049
56.936371579953.71631059616.7778818307
55.184680088852.20127525157.9520349618
57.462620217150.84437708378.9900817427
56.126639483751.15243552365.6738938828
57.97647768552.63710067537.9179762268
57.895254203650.72809824017.1671559635
58.827918860352.02066650376.8072523565
60.158300176152.57757842317.5807217529
62.511564142754.44547269028.0660914525
60.450223250954.20905067566.2411725754
60.728781418454.45754179966.2712396188
61.551853430453.59246132557.9593921049
60.494192426953.71631059616.7778818307
59.091365798852.20127525157.9520349618
59.834458826450.84437708378.9900817427
55.960393167751.15243552365.6738938828
60.555076902152.63710067537.9179762268
57.667013308650.72809824017.1671559635
57.279668768752.02066650376.8072523565
59.774927195252.57757842317.5807217529
61.829213411654.44547269028.0660914525
59.640740645854.20905067566.2411725754
59.779485816654.45754179966.2712396188
59.983497152353.59246132557.9593921049
58.189606095353.71631059616.7778818307
60.153310213352.20127525157.9520349618
58.26003694650.84437708378.9900817427
55.919186612351.15243552365.6738938828
59.499018948252.63710067537.9179762268
56.496296878450.72809824017.1671559635
56.746946305552.02066650376.8072523565
60.013284248252.57757842317.5807217529
61.123537537754.44547269028.0660914525
58.646334557454.20905067566.2411725754
59.574899485954.45754179966.2712396188
57.9923669553.59246132557.9593921049
57.649644025753.71631059616.7778818307
58.341829799552.20127525157.9520349618
57.272800928950.84437708378.9900817427
56.826329406451.15243552365.6738938828
59.715740707952.63710067537.9179762268
56.929665306250.72809824017.1671559635
57.706913319652.02066650376.8072523565
59.635445695652.57757842317.5807217529
61.116659697654.44547269028.0660914525
59.532728751254.20905067566.2411725754
59.695631429554.45754179966.2712396188
59.433809758353.59246132557.9593921049
58.691951328653.71631059616.7778818307
58.408390871852.20127525157.9520349618
57.83273050150.84437708378.9900817427
56.233326490651.15243552365.6738938828
58.159270114252.63710067537.9179762268
55.588362014750.72809824017.1671559635
56.330145030452.02066650376.8072523565
58.094944462752.57757842317.5807217529
59.634903094754.44547269028.0660914525
58.07262116554.20905067566.2411725754
58.228842977754.45754179966.2712396188
57.974847114553.59246132557.9593921049
57.208929115453.71631059616.7778818307
57.187375456252.20127525157.9520349618
56.780774225750.84437708378.9900817427
55.481231622751.15243552365.6738938828
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
0
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
days of supply
Days of supply
Normal range - low
Normal range - high
Forecast
OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Fig13
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Production (million barrels per day)Annual Growth (millioni barrels per day)
200920102011201220132010201120122013
Crude oil5.3615.4745.5885.8275.9210.1140.1140.2380.095
Liquefied petroleum gas and
pentanes plus1.9102.0742.1712.2112.2420.1640.0970.0400.031
Ethanol0.7130.8670.9090.9330.9380.1540.0420.0240.005
Biodiesel0.0330.0200.0580.0580.067-0.0130.0380.0010.008
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012Total Percent Change2.1%4.3%1.6%
Total
ProductionForecast
Jan 20108.270
Feb 20108.495
Mar 20108.478
Apr 20108.329
May 20108.373
Jun 20108.377
Jul 20108.188
Aug 20108.422
Sep 20108.671
Oct 20108.620
Nov 20108.656
Dec 20108.593
Jan 20118.463
Feb 20118.320
Mar 20118.632
Apr 20118.605
May 20118.679
Jun 20118.638
Jul 20118.555
Aug 20118.808
Sep 20118.670
Oct 20118.949
Nov 20119.160
Dec 20118.984
Jan 20128.896
Feb 20128.9328.932
Mar 20129.018
Apr 20129.024
May 20129.049
Jun 20128.983
Jul 20128.974
Aug 20128.948
Sep 20128.952
Oct 20129.035
Nov 20129.126
Dec 20129.078
Jan 20139.021
Feb 20139.056
Mar 20139.135
Apr 20139.151
May 20139.207
Jun 20139.128
Jul 20139.098
Aug 20139.047
Sep 20139.049
Oct 20139.191
Nov 20139.273
Dec 20139.230
Fig13
8.270219401790.11392148280.16409574250.1539533534-0.012844888
8.495066402100.11380639260.09696741080.04164922190.0375699833
8.477751402380.23831712610.04017517940.02396901290.0005662909
8.328692561402690.09455039930.03054867560.0054194120.0083974755
8.372652527140299
8.37656700740330
8.187773140360
8.422266680640391
8.67053100940422
8.620467188440452
8.65628672440483
8.593314114840513
8.462542322640544
8.319520857140575
8.631935580640603
8.605201666740634
8.679134741940664
8.638100333340695
8.555071032340725
8.807743161340756
8.669569666740787
8.949207266440817
9.160140848
8.983746665440878
8.896380839840909
8.9320938.932093
409699.01815
410009.023874
410309.048867
410618.983461
410918.973861
411228.947842
411538.952124
411839.03485
412149.126153
412449.077699
412759.020625
413069.055658
413349.135367
413659.150511
413959.207181
414269.12839
414569.097854
414879.046816
415189.048906
415489.190782
415799.273139
416099.230311
Total production(line chart)
Change from prior year(column chart)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Total production (left axis)
Production forecast (left axis)
Crude oil (right axis)
Liquefied petroleum gas and pentanes plus (right axis)
Fuel ethanol (right axis)
Biodiesel (right axis)
U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production(million barrels per day)
Fig14
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Normal Range for Chart
Stock2007 - 2011
LevelLowHighRange
Jan 2007324.5296.2351.355.1
Feb 2007317.6302.3357.655.3
Mar 2007330.9314.7366.952.3
Apr 2007342.0319.7370.951.2
May 2007353.3303.7369.766.1
Jun 2007354.1295.8365.569.7
Jul 2007336.7295.2357.662.4
Aug 2007320.5302.5359.356.8
Sep 2007311.1304.0362.858.8
Oct 2007307.2307.2367.660.4
Nov 2007299.5299.5352.553.0
Dec 2007286.1286.1333.447.3
Jan 2008296.2296.2351.355.1
Feb 2008302.3302.3357.655.3
Mar 2008314.7314.7366.952.3
Apr 2008319.7319.7370.951.2
May 2008303.7303.7369.766.1
Jun 2008295.8295.8365.569.7
Jul 2008295.2295.2357.662.4
Aug 2008302.5302.5359.356.8
Sep 2008304.0304.0362.858.8
Oct 2008312.6307.2367.660.4
Nov 2008321.6299.5352.553.0
Dec 2008325.8286.1333.447.3
Jan 2009351.3296.2351.355.1
Feb 2009357.6302.3357.655.3
Mar 2009366.9314.7366.952.3
Apr 2009370.9319.7370.951.2
May 2009359.5303.7369.766.1
Jun 2009347.1295.8365.569.7
Jul 2009345.4295.2357.662.4
Aug 2009335.6302.5359.356.8
Sep 2009335.0304.0362.858.8
Oct 2009332.5307.2367.660.4
Nov 2009336.9299.5352.553.0
Dec 2009325.2286.1333.447.3
Jan 2010336.8296.2351.355.1
Feb 2010343.2302.3357.655.3
Mar 2010359.2314.7366.952.3
Apr 2010363.3319.7370.951.2
May 2010361.9303.7369.766.1
Jun 2010365.5295.8365.569.7
Jul 2010357.6295.2357.662.4
Aug 2010359.3302.5359.356.8
Sep 2010362.8304.0362.858.8
Oct 2010367.6307.2367.660.4
Nov 2010352.5299.5352.553.0
Dec 2010333.4286.1333.447.3
Jan 2011347.4296.2351.355.1
Feb 2011350.3302.3357.655.3
Mar 2011362.6314.7366.952.3
Apr 2011369.3319.7370.951.2
May 2011369.7303.7369.766.1
Jun 2011358.5295.8365.569.7
Jul 2011348.1295.2357.662.4
Aug 2011349.3302.5359.356.8
Sep 2011331.8304.0362.858.8
Oct 2011338.6307.2367.660.4
Nov 2011337.6299.5352.553.0
Dec 2011331.1286.1333.447.3
Jan 2012340.3296.2351.355.1
Feb 2012344.8302.3357.655.3
Mar 2012354.8314.7366.952.3
Apr 2012360.1319.7370.951.2
May 2012354.6303.7369.766.1
Jun 2012350.6295.8365.569.7
Jul 2012344.4295.2357.662.4
Aug 2012340.7302.5359.356.8
Sep 2012339.3304.0362.858.8
Oct 2012341.3307.2367.660.4
Nov 2012337.9299.5352.553.0
Dec 2012325.6286.1333.447.3
Jan 2013334.9296.2351.355.1
Feb 2013340.4302.3357.655.3
Mar 2013351.2314.7366.952.3
Apr 2013357.3319.7370.951.2
May 2013352.5303.7369.766.1
Jun 2013348.4295.8365.569.7
Jul 2013342.1295.2357.662.4
Aug 2013338.3302.5359.356.8
Sep 2013336.6304.0362.858.8
Oct 2013339.2307.2367.660.4
Nov 2013336.3299.5352.553.0
Dec 2013323.4286.1333.447.3
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
MonthForecast
Jan 2012200
Jan 2012400
Fig14
324.549296.20755.13200
317.572302.29155.275400
330.875314.65952.284
341.971319.73951.176
353.307303.65166.091
354.071295.77269.725
336.724295.23262.377
320.539302.51456.807
311.112304.01458.821
307.239307.23960.353
299.525299.52552.95
286.105286.10547.325
296.207296.20755.13
302.291302.29155.275
314.659314.65952.284
319.739319.73951.176
303.651303.65166.091
295.772295.77269.725
295.232295.23262.377
302.514302.51456.807
304.014304.01458.821
312.643307.23960.353
321.566299.52552.95
325.84286.10547.325
351.337296.20755.13
357.566302.29155.275
366.943314.65952.284
370.915319.73951.176
359.501303.65166.091
347.066295.77269.725
345.428295.23262.377
335.583302.51456.807
335.011304.01458.821
332.502307.23960.353
336.913299.52552.95
325.179286.10547.325
336.815296.20755.13
343.216302.29155.275
359.245314.65952.284
363.268319.73951.176
361.945303.65166.091
365.497295.77269.725
357.609295.23262.377
359.321302.51456.807
362.835304.01458.821
367.592307.23960.353
352.475299.52552.95
333.43286.10547.325
347.42296.20755.13
350.286302.29155.275
362.59314.65952.284
369.323319.73951.176
369.742303.65166.091
358.473295.77269.725
348.148295.23262.377
349.331302.51456.807
331.769304.01458.821
338.608307.23960.353
337.645299.52552.95
331.1055714286286.10547.325
340.3080124924296.20755.13
344.8242302.29155.275
354.7704314.65952.284
360.1151319.73951.176
354.5582303.65166.091
350.5867295.77269.725
344.3801295.23262.377
340.7206302.51456.807
339.3194304.01458.821
341.2661307.23960.353
337.8843299.52552.95
325.6076286.10547.325
334.9156296.20755.13
340.3802302.29155.275
351.1974314.65952.284
357.3278319.73951.176
352.515303.65166.091
348.3968295.77269.725
342.1084295.23262.377
338.2899302.51456.807
336.5809304.01458.821
339.1957307.23960.353
336.3469299.52552.95
323.3947286.10547.325
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
0
million barrels
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
U.S. crude oil stocks
Normal range - low
Normal range - high
Forecast
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks
Fig15
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Consumption (million barrels per day)Consumption Growth (million barrels per day)
200920102011201220132010201120122013
Total18.7719.1818.8418.8718.960.41-0.340.030.09
Motor gasoline9.008.998.748.718.69-0.00-0.25-0.03-0.01
Jet fuel1.391.431.431.431.440.04-0.000.010.00
Distillate fuel3.633.803.863.903.990.170.060.040.09
Other4.754.964.814.824.840.20-0.140.010.01
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Total Consumption (million bbl/day)
HistoryForecast
Jan 201018.65
Feb 201018.85
Mar 201019.10
Apr 201019.04
May 201018.87
Jun 201019.54
Jul 201019.32
Aug 201019.66
Sep 201019.44
Oct 201018.97
Nov 201018.98
Dec 201019.72
Jan 201119.12
Feb 201118.87
Mar 201119.25
Apr 201118.61
May 201118.36
Jun 201119.28
Jul 201118.56
Aug 201119.15
Sep 201118.80
Oct 201118.56
Nov 201118.73
Dec 201118.78
Jan 201218.22
Feb 201218.9018.90
Mar 201218.98
Apr 201218.80
May 201218.65
Jun 201219.16
Jul 201218.85
Aug 201219.16
Sep 201218.79
Oct 201218.78
Nov 201218.82
Dec 201219.31
Jan 201318.82
Feb 201319.06
Mar 201319.04
Apr 201318.83
May 201318.70
Jun 201319.17
Jul 201318.87
Aug 201319.16
Sep 201318.84
Oct 201318.80
Nov 201318.86
Dec 201319.31
Fig15
-0.00386605210.03845864660.16923304660.204900246618.65168140179
-0.2546297479-0.0020818630.0574919699-0.141966227418.84960340210
-0.03015897670.00509309420.04211233530.01060852519.09945340238
-0.01399290830.00373184830.08764211950.012182176419.04356840269
18.86591740299
19.53654140330
19.31860140360
19.66181440391
19.43847640422
18.97389640452
18.97706640483
19.72167840513
19.12137640544
18.86885140575
19.24839140603
18.61273240634
18.36310740664
19.27744140695
18.55508940725
19.1534340756
18.79541240787
18.56305640817
18.73398240848
18.779259838740878
18.216014672940909
18.8963318.89633
4096918.97509
4100018.79956
4103018.65044
4106119.15534
4109118.85023
4112219.15726
4115318.79424
4118318.77791
4121418.82118
4124419.31071
4127518.8235
4130619.05564
4133419.0384
4136518.83106
4139518.69894
4142619.17236
4145618.87435
4148719.16404
4151818.84081
4154818.80465
4157918.86292
4160919.31296
Total consumption(line chart)
Change from prior year(column chart)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Motor gasoline (right axis)
Jet fuel (right axis)
Distillate fuel (right axis)
Other fuels (right axis)
Total consumption (left axis)
Consumption forecast (left axis)
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption(million barrels per day)
Fig16
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Normal Inventory Ranges for Chart (Million barrels)
Inventories (Million barrels)DistillateDistillateGasolineGasolineBottomDistillateGasoline
DistillateGasolineLowHighLowHighRangeRangeRange
Jan 2007139.6227.4131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2007123.7215.3117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2007120.0201.6107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2007121.3196.9107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2007125.1202.7113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2007123.8205.5121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2007130.3205.1130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2007134.6194.0133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2007134.2200.0127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2007134.4198.6127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2007134.8204.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2007133.9218.1133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2008131.0232.8131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2008117.6235.2117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2008107.8222.2107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2008107.1211.3107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2008113.9208.3113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2008121.7210.9121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2008130.9206.7130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2008133.0195.7133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2008127.7190.0127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2008127.6195.0127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2008135.9203.7134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2008146.0213.6133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2009143.7219.6131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2009148.1216.4117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2009145.3217.1107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2009150.1210.5107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2009156.7204.1113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2009162.7213.9121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2009165.9212.5130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2009168.6207.8133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2009172.7214.1127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2009171.2211.1127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2009171.1219.7134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2009166.0223.3133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2010163.5232.2131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2010155.3234.6117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2010146.8225.0107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2010144.8220.5107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2010150.0217.7113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2010157.9215.6121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2010166.6220.0130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2010170.3221.0133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2010166.7219.3127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2010161.5209.7127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2010162.0212.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2010164.3219.4133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2011162.2235.0131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2011153.8229.5117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2011148.5214.9107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2011142.9204.7107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2011144.7213.9113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2011143.7215.2121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2011158.1216.8130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2011156.9212.3133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2011153.7216.1127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2011142.9208.4127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2011144.0221.0134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2011144.7222.2133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2012145.1231.9131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2012136.1230.3117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2012127.6220.3107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2012125.6213.3107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2012131.6214.4113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2012136.1216.8121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2012143.0216.5130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2012147.1210.2133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2012146.7214.5127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2012144.9211.3127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2012146.7217.1134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2012148.7226.0133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Jan 2013146.4238.2131.0163.5219.6235.032.656.015.4
Feb 2013138.7234.8117.6155.3215.3235.237.760.019.8
Mar 2013130.9223.5107.8148.5201.6225.040.853.023.5
Apr 2013129.3215.4107.1150.1196.9220.543.046.923.6
May 2013135.8216.8113.9156.7202.7217.742.846.015.0
Jun 2013140.3219.4121.7162.7205.5215.641.042.810.0
Jul 2013147.1218.4130.3166.6205.1220.036.338.514.9
Aug 2013151.0213.1133.0170.3194.0221.037.423.627.0
Sep 2013150.4216.8127.7172.7190.0219.345.117.329.2
Oct 2013148.6214.0127.6171.2195.0211.143.623.816.2
Nov 2013150.3218.8134.8171.1203.7221.036.332.617.3
Dec 2013152.4226.5133.9166.0213.6223.332.047.69.7
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
MonthForecast
Jan 201260
Jan 2012260
Fig16
139.608130.96332.564227.42556.04515.44760
123.723117.63637.697215.32759.99419.83260
120.007107.78440.758201.5753.02823.472
121.311107.05143.007196.92146.86323.551
125.083113.94142.765202.74646.0415.003
123.8121.7141.013205.54642.82310.032
130.297130.29736.331205.09738.46914.89
134.569132.97337.361193.96823.63427.007
134.236127.67945.052199.98617.28929.236
134.431127.59543.569198.59223.80816.165
134.8134.836.325204.75932.60417.251
133.944133.94432.02218.10747.5869.732
130.963130.96332.564232.83156.04515.447
117.636117.63637.697235.15759.99419.83
107.784107.78440.758222.19853.02823.472
107.051107.05143.007211.34946.86323.551
113.941113.94142.765208.34546.0415.003
121.71121.7141.013210.8742.82310.032
130.906130.29736.331206.67938.46914.89
132.973132.97337.361195.73723.63427.007
127.679127.67945.052190.0217.28929.236
127.595127.59543.569194.97223.80816.165
135.876134.836.325203.72932.60417.251
146.013133.94432.02213.5547.5869.732
143.73130.96332.564219.57256.04515.447
148.105117.63637.697216.38359.99419.83
145.301107.78440.758217.06153.02823.472
150.058107.05143.007210.50146.86323.551
156.706113.94142.765204.08246.0415.003
162.723121.7141.013213.86642.82310.032
165.94130.29736.331212.49638.46914.89
168.649132.97337.361207.81923.63427.007
172.731127.67945.052214.06117.28929.236
171.164127.59543.569211.13723.80816.165
171.125134.836.325219.7432.60417.251
165.964133.94432.02223.28247.5869.732
163.527130.96332.564232.24856.04515.447
155.333117.63637.697234.55859.99419.83
146.817107.78440.758225.04253.02823.472
144.802107.05143.007220.47246.86323.551
150.041113.94142.765217.74946.0415.003
157.944121.7141.013215.57842.82310.032
166.628130.29736.331219.98738.46914.89
170.334132.97337.361220.97523.63427.007
166.735127.67945.052219.25617.28929.236
161.51127.59543.569209.74723.80816.165
161.991134.836.325212.79432.60417.251
164.306133.94432.02219.43547.5869.732
162.205130.96332.564235.01956.04515.447
153.823117.63637.697229.49859.99419.83
148.542107.78440.758214.953.02823.472
142.852107.05143.007204.71646.86323.551
144.679113.94142.765213.88646.0415.003
143.658121.7141.013215.19342.82310.032
158.126130.29736.331216.79538.46914.89
156.912132.97337.361212.26423.63427.007
153.667127.67945.052216.10717.28929.236
142.86127.59543.569208.37723.80816.165
144.013134.836.325220.9832.60417.251
144.7172857143133.94432.02222.223428571447.5869.732
145.0560159597130.96332.564231.900440289856.04515.447
136.1222117.63637.697230.3439459.99419.83
127.6136107.78440.758220.2949253.02823.472
125.6316107.05143.007213.2618646.86323.551
131.5509113.94142.765214.373446.0415.003
136.057121.7141.013216.7605842.82310.032
143.0437130.29736.331216.4777238.46914.89
147.1385132.97337.361210.162723.63427.007
146.6834127.67945.052214.4602517.28929.236
144.8701127.59543.569211.3263923.80816.165
146.6694134.836.325217.1360232.60417.251
148.7131133.94432.02226.001347.5869.732
146.4025130.96332.564238.1744856.04515.447
138.7345117.63637.697234.8274159.99419.83
130.8734107.78440.758223.5413553.02823.472
129.2739107.05143.007215.4221146.86323.551
135.7708113.94142.765216.7834346.0415.003
140.3295121.7141.013219.3754642.82310.032
147.1201130.29736.331218.3997938.46914.89
151.0451132.97337.361213.1265823.63427.007
150.3679127.67945.052216.8297117.28929.236
148.5605127.59543.569214.0275623.80816.165
150.3324134.836.325218.8492932.60417.251
152.3687133.94432.02226.5093347.5869.732
Total motor gasoline inventory
Total distillate fuel inventory
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
0
million barrels
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
Total distillate inventories
Normal range for distillate - low
Normal range for distillate - high
Total motor gasoline inventories
Normal range for gasoline - low
Normal range for gasoline - high
Forecast
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories
Fig17
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)Consumption Growth (bcf per day)
200920102011201220132010201120122013
Electric power18.8320.2420.7921.9522.391.410.551.150.44
Industrial16.9017.8618.5118.7018.980.960.660.190.28
Residential and commercial21.6421.6121.8321.9322.35-0.020.210.100.42
Other5.405.435.775.915.980.020.340.140.07
Total consumption62.7765.1466.9168.4869.702.371.771.581.22
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Total Consumption (bcf per day)
HistoryForecast
Jan 201089.77
Feb 201087.71
Mar 201068.30
Apr 201055.57
May 201051.32
Jun 201054.13
Jul 201058.07
Aug 201059.79
Sep 201053.75
Oct 201052.88
Nov 201064.88
Dec 201086.62
Jan 201192.86
Feb 201187.24
Mar 201171.97
Apr 201160.99
May 201153.81
Jun 201155.10
Jul 201160.66
Aug 201160.56
Sep 201154.70
Oct 201156.35
Nov 201166.78
Dec 201182.84
Jan 201289.67
Feb 201289.9689.96
Mar 201273.33
Apr 201261.35
May 201254.42
Jun 201256.38
Jul 201260.08
Aug 201261.85
Sep 201256.76
Oct 201259.68
Nov 201270.75
Dec 201288.04
Jan 201394.72
Feb 201389.76
Mar 201374.38
Apr 201362.17
May 201354.58
Jun 201357.18
Jul 201361.71
Aug 201363.30
Sep 201358.24
Oct 201360.82
Nov 201371.50
Dec 201389.04
Fig17
89.7692018065401791.4100037973-0.02329589040.95919178080.0248246575
87.7106736429402100.55454848490.21356701370.65560947950.3438425205
68.3003396774402381.15411642420.09780778770.18839936930.1385584666
55.5711466333402690.44442064710.42382710540.27935652110.0688922567
51.324641903240299
54.127640766740330
58.071374967740360
59.787111387140391
53.749351740422
52.883420838740452
64.884773733340483
86.622203451640513
92.856361064540544
87.244550607140575
71.967840774240603
60.989408640634
53.811845161340664
55.102599366740695
60.659288838740725
60.564544677440756
54.702566266740787
56.347909483940817
66.775305540848
82.844240878
89.6668340909
89.9595689.95956
4096973.33464
4100061.35222
4103054.42073
4106156.3788
4109160.07907
4112261.8513
4115356.76213
4118359.67858
4121470.74822
4124488.04187
4127594.71928
4130689.76137
4133474.38061
4136562.16767
4139554.5799
4142657.17792
4145661.71209
4148763.29998
4151858.24012
4154860.81514
4157971.50495
4160989.03592
Total consumption(line chart)
Change from prior year(column chart)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Total consumption (left axis)
Consumption forecast (left axis)
Electric power (right axis)
Residential and commercial (right axis)
Industrial (right axis)
Other (right axis)
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption(billion cubic feet per day)
Fig18
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
Production / Imports (billion cubic feet per day)Annual Growth (bcf per day)
200920102011201220132010201120122013
Federal Gulf of Mexico6.656.154.984.344.36-0.50-1.17-0.630.01
U.S. excluding Gulf of Mexico52.6555.2261.1763.2964.162.575.952.120.87
Net Imports15.8815.6314.0513.1013.24-0.25-1.58-0.950.15
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
U.S. Marketed Production (bcf per day)
HistoryForecast
Jan 201059.28
Feb 201060.42
Mar 201060.76
Apr 201060.33
May 201060.67
Jun 201059.91
Jul 201061.55
Aug 201062.05
Sep 201062.47
Oct 201062.65
Nov 201062.72
Dec 201063.59
Jan 201163.63
Feb 201162.58
Mar 201165.15
Apr 201165.97
May 201166.01
Jun 201165.89
Jul 201165.92
Aug 201166.15
Sep 201166.83
Oct 201168.12
Nov 201169.07
Dec 201168.19
Jan 201268.02
Feb 201267.6567.65
Mar 201267.49
Apr 201267.22
May 201267.26
Jun 201267.22
Jul 201267.45
Aug 201267.58
Sep 201267.58
Oct 201267.83
Nov 201268.04
Dec 201268.29
Jan 201368.39
Feb 201368.43
Mar 201368.48
Apr 201368.48
May 201368.52
Jun 201368.53
Jul 201368.58
Aug 201368.46
Sep 201368.34
Oct 201368.54
Nov 201368.70
Dec 201368.74
Fig18
59.279612677440179-0.2519196685-0.50371063292.5700247753
60.417952214340210-1.5843388849-1.1746674115.9459494356
60.76311812940238-0.9524358007-0.63351561162.121545921
60.3293349402690.14657110750.0144851020.8672256681
60.672062516140299
59.914298666740330
61.554415806540360
62.050623354840391
62.468267466740422
62.647251516140452
62.724706466740483
63.592262451640513
63.626425612940544
62.582133571440575
65.147245225840603
65.971611466740634
66.013266838740664
65.888100466740695
65.922763225840725
66.152201225840756
66.834932533340787
68.120157032340817
69.074652233340848
68.1882640878
68.017640909
67.6494867.64948
4096967.48579
4100067.2193
4103067.25507
4106167.21967
4109167.44527
4112267.58162
4115367.58221
4118367.8284
4121468.03531
4124468.2861
4127568.38736
4130668.42516
4133468.48176
4136568.48008
4139568.51901
4142668.528
4145668.58137
4148768.46471
4151868.34499
4154868.53904
4157968.69976
4160968.74045
Total marketed production(line chart)
Change from prior year(column chart)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Total marketed production (left axis)
Marketed production forecast (left axis)
Net imports (right axis)
Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)
U.S. production excluding Gulf of Mexico (right axis)
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports(billion cubic feet per day)
Fig19
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Return to Contents
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage(billion cubic feet)
Storage2007 - 2011
LevelLowHighRangeAverageDeviation*
Jan 20072382.92055.92382.9327.02236.76.5%
Feb 20071651.61464.71758.0293.31656.3-0.3%
Mar 20071603.01266.11659.6393.61552.33.3%
Apr 20071722.71436.42011.1574.71773.8-2.9%
May 20072181.21839.52419.7580.12200.6-0.9%
Jun 20072582.82177.52760.1582.62558.11.0%
Jul 20072896.32517.03090.3573.32848.71.7%
Aug 20073020.82866.23359.1493.03083.7-2.0%
Sep 20073315.43160.93646.0485.13409.2-2.7%
Oct 20073565.43399.43850.6451.33685.9-3.3%
Nov 20073442.03345.93842.8496.93647.4-5.6%
Dec 20072879.32840.43472.0631.63086.6-6.7%
Jan 20082055.92055.92382.9327.02236.7-8.1%
Feb 20081464.71464.71758.0293.31656.3-11.6%
Mar 20081266.11266.11659.6393.61552.3-18.4%
Apr 20081436.41436.42011.1574.71773.8-19.0%
May 20081839.51839.52419.7580.12200.6-16.4%
Jun 20082177.52177.52760.1582.62558.1-14.9%
Jul 20082517.02517.03090.3573.32848.7-11.6%
Aug 20082866.22866.23359.1493.03083.7-7.1%
Sep 20083160.93160.93646.0485.13409.2-7.3%
Oct 20083399.43399.43850.6451.33685.9-7.8%
Nov 20083345.93345.93842.8496.93647.4-8.3%
Dec 20082840.42840.43472.0631.63086.6-8.0%
Jan 20092133.22055.92382.9327.02236.7-4.6%
Feb 20091758.01464.71758.0293.31656.36.1%
Mar 20091659.61266.11659.6393.61552.36.9%
Apr 20091909.91436.42011.1574.71773.87.7%
May 20092374.81839.52419.7580.12200.67.9%
Jun 20092760.12177.52760.1582.62558.17.9%
Jul 20093090.32517.03090.3573.32848.78.5%
Aug 20093359.12866.23359.1493.03083.78.9%
Sep 20093646.03160.93646.0485.13409.26.9%
Oct 20093809.93399.43850.6451.33685.93.4%
Nov 20093837.43345.93842.8496.93647.45.2%
Dec 20093130.12840.43472.0631.63086.61.4%
Jan 20102303.92055.92382.9327.02236.73.0%
Feb 20101683.31464.71758.0293.31656.31.6%
Mar 20101652.41266.11659.6393.61552.36.4%
Apr 20102011.11436.42011.1574.71773.813.4%
May 20102419.71839.52419.7580.12200.610.0%
Jun 20102740.12177.52760.1582.62558.17.1%
Jul 20102965.82517.03090.3573.32848.74.1%
Aug 20103152.82866.23359.1493.03083.72.2%
Sep 20103507.63160.93646.0485.13409.22.9%
Oct 20103850.63399.43850.6451.33685.94.5%
Nov 20103768.93345.93842.8496.93647.43.3%
Dec 20103111.12840.43472.0631.63086.60.8%
Jan 20112307.72055.92382.9327.02236.73.2%
Feb 20111723.71464.71758.0293.31656.34.1%
Mar 20111580.61266.11659.6393.61552.31.8%
Apr 20111789.11436.42011.1574.71773.80.9%
May 20112187.61839.52419.7580.12200.6-0.6%
Jun 20112529.72177.52760.1582.62558.1-1.1%
Jul 20112774.32517.03090.3573.32848.7-2.6%
Aug 20113019.72866.23359.1493.03083.7-2.1%
Sep 20113415.93160.93646.0485.13409.20.2%
Oct 20113804.43399.43850.6451.33685.93.2%
Nov 20113842.83345.93842.8496.93647.45.4%
Dec 20113472.02840.43472.0631.63086.612.5%
Jan 20122858.22055.92382.9327.02236.727.8%
Feb 20122222.61464.71758.0293.31656.334.2%
Mar 20122065.71266.11659.6393.61552.333.1%
Apr 20122250.91436.42011.1574.71773.826.9%
May 20122652.11839.52419.7580.12200.620.5%
Jun 20122983.02177.52760.1582.62558.116.6%
Jul 20123238.52517.03090.3573.32848.713.7%
Aug 20123444.72866.23359.1493.03083.711.7%
Sep 20123760.73160.93646.0485.13409.210.3%
Oct 20123982.63399.43850.6451.33685.98.0%
Nov 20123929.43345.93842.8496.93647.47.7%
Dec 20123362.02840.43472.0631.63086.68.9%
Jan 20132588.92055.92382.9327.02236.715.7%
Feb 20132026.31464.71758.0293.31656.322.3%
Mar 20131913.21266.11659.6393.61552.323.2%
Apr 20132138.01436.42011.1574.71773.820.5%
May 20132565.71839.52419.7580.12200.616.6%
Jun 20132921.82177.52760.1582.62558.114.2%
Jul 20133203.22517.03090.3573.32848.712.4%
Aug 20133430.22866.23359.1493.03083.711.2%
Sep 20133758.63160.93646.0485.13409.210.3%
Oct 20134001.43399.43850.6451.33685.98.6%
Nov 20133960.03345.93842.8496.93647.48.6%
Dec 20133395.12840.43472.0631.63086.610.0%
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
*Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average
MonthForecast
Jan 2012-3000
Jan 20124500
Fig19
2055.8812055.881327.014-3000-0.0808453172
1464.691464.69293.3324500-0.1156671973
1266.0661266.066393.58-0.1844136562
1436.4021436.402574.699-0.1902314219
1839.5431839.543580.117-0.1640599914
2177.5482177.548582.585-0.1487475626
2517.0232517.023573.282-0.1164397502
2866.1642866.164492.954-0.0705484086
3160.9183160.918485.06-0.0728206379
3399.3813399.381451.26-0.0777397514
3345.9113345.911496.858-0.0826607188
2840.3632840.363631.637-0.0797631898
2133.2332055.881327.014-0.0462623559
1758.0221464.69293.3320.0614372477
1659.6461266.066393.580.0691264224
1909.9161436.402574.6990.0767110904
2374.8091839.543580.1170.0791799136
2760.1332177.548582.5850.0789980032
3090.3052517.023573.2820.0848016318
3359.1182866.164492.9540.0893087663
3645.9783160.918485.060.0694600608
3809.8673399.381451.260.0336260885
3837.4243345.911496.8580.0520960581
3130.0762840.363631.6370.0140996604
2303.8582055.881327.0140.0300216157
1683.3341464.69293.3320.016343031
1652.4131266.066393.580.0644670002
2011.1011436.402574.6990.1337539193
2419.661839.543580.1170.0995614678
2740.0562177.548582.5850.0711494528
2965.782517.023573.2820.0410891429
3152.7612866.164492.9540.0223904594
3507.6463160.918485.060.0288836917
3850.6413399.381451.260.0446881729
3768.9053345.911496.8580.033310391
3111.0852840.363631.6370.0079468492
2307.6752055.881327.0140.0317281412
1723.7131464.69293.3320.0407225749
1580.5651266.066393.580.0181832776
1789.0531436.402574.6990.0085748307
2187.591839.543580.117-0.0058976586
2529.7392177.548582.585-0.0110681878
2774.2782517.023573.282-0.0261345396
3019.7342866.164492.954-0.0207480898
3415.9063160.918485.060.0019739665
3804.353399.381451.260.0321293131
3842.7693345.911496.8580.0535614822
34722840.363631.6370.1248781247
2858.22857142862055.881327.0140.2778726862
2222.61464.69293.3320.3419345303
2065.6641266.066393.580.3306789293
2250.9391436.402574.6990.2689620827
2652.0781839.543580.1170.2051787352
2983.0252177.548582.5850.1661314938
3238.4522517.023573.2820.1368062422
3444.7482866.164492.9540.1170772191
3760.6983160.918485.060.1031104169
3982.6153399.381451.260.0804930368
3929.3723345.911496.8580.0773051902
3362.0192840.363631.6370.0892458606
2588.9012055.881327.0140.1574602215
2026.3461464.69293.3320.2234426652
1913.1571266.066393.580.2324355308
2138.0441436.402574.6990.2053177661
2565.7481839.543580.1170.1659479584
2921.7552177.548582.5850.1421796742
3203.2022517.023573.2820.1244322993
3430.1722866.164492.9540.1123504531
3758.643160.918485.060.1025067521
4001.4243399.381451.260.0855959638
3960.013345.911496.8580.085705127
3395.0912840.363631.6370.0999607135
Deviation from 2007 - 2011 average
Storage level
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2011.
billion cubic feet
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
Storage Level
Natural gas storage range - low
Natural gas storage range - high
Forecast
Deviation from average
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage
Fig20
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2012
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Consumption (million short tons)Consumption Growth (million short tons)