choice modelling in lower income countries
TRANSCRIPT
How to predictchoice of lowerincome consumers
Robert Dossin Mike Mabey
SKIM Europe SKIM USA
A mobile study about painkillers choices
in Indonesia, Brazil & South Africa
Lower & Middle classIn Emerging markets
70.000.000each year BRIC+ 7 trillion
2015 20 trillion
2025
Source: McKinsey & Company ‘The great rebalancing, 2010’
Developing research methods
Source: GRIT report 2015 – Greenbook/methods
More demanding - faster
Mobile Connects the Unconnected
PC ownership of mobileusers
PC at Home
37%No PC at Home
63%
Mobile surveys in most emerging markets are for 16-44
5%
21%24% 23%
17%
10%
16 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
On Device Sample Census
Source: n=2060 On Device Profiler 2015
Access to lower social class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Female Male 18-34 35-44 45+ LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM 8-10
AMPS 2014 (Census) On Device Sample
Mobile beats face to face alternatives
0.89
0.83
0.94
0.91
0.76
0.8
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
Malaysia India
Correlation of tracking data with actual
market share data 1 = Perfect Correlation
Face to Face
Mobile
Robust sample in days n=1260
n = 600
~ 60% 18-25 y/o
80% earn 3000 R or less
n = 38 feature phones
n = 380
~ 50% 18-25 y/o
46% earn Rp 10.000 or less
n = 127 feature phones
n = 280
44% 18 – 25 y/o
48% R. 8999 or less
n = 30 feature phones
So what did we do?Painkillers Study
Predict choice using trade offsOutput are preferences per consumer to be used for predictions
Brand Units per pack Dosage (in mg) Price (local R) Format
Top 3 (combination
large manufacturer &
local)
- Tylenol
- Novalgine
- Anador
3 options:
- 24
tablets/capsules
- 20
- 16
3 dosages:
- 200 mg
- 300 mg
- 500 mg
3 different prices:
- 7.19
- 10.99
- 12.49
2 different formats:
- Tablets
- Capsules
Painkiller ChoiceWhat is the most appealing attribute for consumers?
13 taps on a mobile phone
Choice Tasks
Consumers have completed 7 different
choice tasks, each task varying the
attributes of the product (brand, units,
dosage, price & format)
In each task, respondents chose one
concept that they preferred most
For this study, there were 2 or 3 concepts
shown on screen at a time
Setup Brazil
Additional insights
Understand why concepts are motivating
and other insights
Open ended question:
‘For what purpose consumers
normally buy painkillers?’
Additional options
Select questions for specific sizes or flavors
Additional price analysis
Key findings
Brand is the most importantattribute
7%
13%
15%
19%
47%
Type
Price
Dosage
Pieces
Brand
Brand preference
17%
23%
60%
Novalgina
Anador
Tylenol
Brazilians like it big
13%
25%
62%
10pieces
20pieces
30pieces
19%
26%
56%
100mg
300mg
500mg
Latent Class analytics
• 45% prefer Novalgina (SA),
but could switch to Tylenol as
they give more importance to
other attributes such as
• high dosage and high number
of pieces.
• They are not price sensitive
• Extremely loyal to the Tylenol
brand
• Prefer capsules over tablets
• Motivated by a high number of
pills and mid dosage
• Tylenol lovers are price sensitive
• Very loyal to the Anador brand
• Tablets are preferred over
capsules
• Motivated by a midsize quantity
and high dosage
• Anador lovers are very price
sensitive
Novalgina likers 45% Tylenol lovers 36% Anador price buyers
19%
The most common usesof painkillers
Country nuances
Tablets preferred
Pricesensitive
Package & dosage important drivers
Predictionpower
Prediction
In all countries our models predict significant
better compared to random chance (33%)!
65.8% 70.3% 76.8%
33%
x 2 !
Art or Science
