china's urban transformation — weiping wu, tufts university — wri cities research seminar...
TRANSCRIPT
WEIPING WU, PROFESSOR AND CHAIR, URBAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY & PLANNING, TUFTS UNIVERSITY
CHINA’S URBANTRANSFORMATION
WRI Cities Research Seminar Series — February 4, 2016
Weiping WuTufts University
China’s Urban Transformation
Weiping WuProfessor and ChairUrban and Environmental Policy & PlanningTufts University
Outline
� China’s urban system◦ Developmental state at work◦ Migration as key driver◦ Emerging urban regions
� Transformed urban form◦ Rising motorization◦ Increasing spatial differentiation◦ Leap-frog expansion
China’s urbanization at a glance~1980 ~2010 % change
Urbanization level (%) 19.4 51.0 162.9
Number of cities 193 657 240.4
Eastern region 69 344 398.6
Central region 84 218 159.5
Western region 40 95 137.5
Cities by population size
Super large (> 2 million) - 42
Extra large (1-2 million) 13 82 530.8
Large (0.5 -1 million) 27 110 307.4
Small & medium (< 0.5 million) 153 423 176.5
Agriculture’s share in employment (%) 64 39 -39.1
Ratio of urban-rural per capita income 2.6 3.2 23.1
Context of China’s urbanization
� Marketization – command to market economy
� Decentralization – central-local fiscal relations
� Industrialization – agricultural to manufacturing economy
� Migration – rural-based to urban-based society
� Globalization – autarky to open regime
Urbanization and regions
Defining urban
� Urban place◦ Cities (657 in 2010)� Criteria changed in 1955, 1963, 1984, 1986, & 1993� Generally, population greater than 100,000
◦ Officially designated towns (19,410)� Population over 20,000� At least 10 percent is non-agricultural
� Urban person◦ Nonagricultural v. agricultural◦ Locally registered v. migrants
Central policies at work� “Cities leading counties” policy in 1990s◦ More than 1,200 counties under 280 cities
� Reclassification of counties as cities in 1983, 1986, and 1993) or as urban districts
� Case in point – Chongqing◦ Original city merged with 40 surrounding
counties in 1997◦ Population changed from 15 to 30 million and
land area multiplied
Is Chongqing China’s largest city?
http://www.fnetravel.com/travel_info/english/chongqing-info/images/map-chongqing.gif
Migration as key driver� Unprecedented magnitude◦ >200 million – primarily from rural-urban
� Primarily short-distance migration◦ 70 percent within province
� Coastal region as key destination◦ Much inter-provincial migration originates from
central and western regions� Circular or seasonal migration◦ Primarily aged 15-34, males outnumber females,
and family migration about a third
Migration as key driver
1995-2000 (Source: Fan 2005)
2005-2010 (Source: Chan 2012)
Two largest cities at a glance
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Beijing
Migrant population (million) 0.54 1.81 2.56 3.57 7.05
Total population (million) 10.86 12.51 13.64 15.38 19.62
% migrant population 5.0 14.5 18.8 23.2 35.9
Growth rate of migrants (%) 235.2 41.4 39.5 97.5
Growth rate of total pop (%) 15.2 9.0 12.8 27.6Shanghai
Migrant population (million) 1.06 2.51 3.06 5.40 8.98
Total population (million) 13.34 14.14 16.41 18.81 23.02
% migrant population 7.9 17.8 18.6 28.7 39.0
Growth rate of migrants (%) 136.8 21.9 76.5 66.3
Growth rate of total pop (%) 6.0 16.1 14.6 22.4
Main destinations of FDI, 2008
Reconfiguration of urban space� No longer the egalitarian, low-profile, and
walking-scale socialist city� Linkage between work and residence has
all but disappeared ◦ End of cellular-type of housing built around work
units� Unprecedented residential mobility◦ Rising role of real estate development◦ Cessation of work-unit compounds◦ Less pedestrian and bicycle oriented
Changing modes in Shanghai
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
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100%
1982 1986 1995 2004
Other
Walking
Bicycle
Motorcycle
Car
Taxi
Public transit
Increasing spatial differentiation
� Concentration of migrants◦ Augmented by social networks that sustain
migration flows
� Return of pre-socialist divisions ◦ Migrants dominate poorer neighborhoods in less
desirable locations
� Satellite or “daughter” communities of migrants ◦ ‘Urban villages’
Spatial distribution
Between 2000 and 2010, many neighborhoods became dominated by migrants, especially outside central city
Sojourners in the city
� Positioning migrants in urban society◦ Labor is desired but presence unwanted◦ Limited access to urban benefits
� Most migrants trapped in two housing types in spite of high mobility rates◦ Renting private housing ◦ Living in dorm or workshed.
� Few rural migrants make transition from renters to owners after years in city
Driving forces of expansion� Incentive for local governments to covert
agricultural land to urban use to generate revenues◦ Financially profitable but uneconomical
� Urban v. rural land ownership regimes� Over-allocation of land for industrial use◦ About 27 percent, compared to 7 in Seoul and 5
in Hong Kong◦ Industrial relocation from urban core enlarges
overall proportion
1990 2000
2005 2010
Dilemmas
� Urban land constitutes◦ Future extra-budgetary revenue◦ Collateral for local borrowing
� Unsustainable source of financing◦ Decline in land value (from real estate
irregularities) could reduce investment◦ End of land capitalization process (circa 2021)◦ Major source of inefficiencies, distorted
incentives, and loss of state assets
Dilemmas
� Negative relationship between land supply and fiscal gap (source: Lu and Sun 2013)
What’s the future?
� Urban China is becoming more stratified both within and across cities
� Urban system most likely centered around strategically located city-regions
� Fragile human-environment relationship severely challenged by rising urbanization◦ Urban expansion, often in fragmented and
sprawling fashion, will intensify depletion of land, water, and other resources
� T