China’s Rise and Cyberspace:Strategic Challenges for the U.S.

James Mulvenon, Ph.D.10 September 2009

Outline

• US-PRC strategic cyber dilemmas• Beijing’s strategic perspective on cyberspace• China and cyber as a tool of state power• Chinese military views of computer network

operations• US, China, and cyberspace: the long-term view

US-PRC Strategic Cyber Dilemmas

• China: cyber threat, world’s IT workshop, or both?• US-China cyber dilemma as microcosm of larger US-

China strategic relationship• US-China vs. US-USSR• Bilateral relations = difficult tradeoffs

Beijing’s and Cyberspace:Contradictions, Anyone?

• Chinese philosophy and Hegelian/Marxist “science” centers on contradictions and their resolution

• China’s great information security “balancing act”– Desire: Access to global technology R&D and production– Desire: Connection to global information grid– Fear: Use of ICTs to undermine Beijing government

• Myths about the Internet and authoritarian regimes– How has China beaten the odds?

China and Cyber as a Tool of State Power

• China and Russia: cyber is a legitimate element of state power– Examples: patriotic hackers, Estonia, Georgia– More comfortable than US in overt use– Publicity and public opprobrium have had no effect

• Uses of cyber– Cyber/technology espionage– Intelligence preparation of the battlefield– Psyops, influence operations, denial and deception

Chinese Military Views onComputer Network Operations

• Why the PLA is attracted to CNO– Range and targets– US dependencies and vulnerabilities

• How would the PLA use CNO– CNO and the Taiwan scenario centers of gravity– Connection to the “intrusion set”

• Assessing PLA cyber capabilities• Implications of PLA CNO for US defense

– Attribution challenges– Deterrence challenges

US, China, and Cyberspace: The Long-Term View

• Short-term: cyber espionage• Short-medium term: CNO and the Taiwan scenario• Long-term

– Supply chain– CFIUS– Infrastructure– Internet governance– IT standards