chapter v demand versus supply of food grains in...
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CHAPTER–V
DEMAND VERSUS SUPPLY OF FOOD GRAINS IN
INDIA: FUTURE SCENARIO
To project the future food security scenario of India is the objective of this
chapter for which future demand and supply of food grains have been estimated on
the basis of past performance. The estimation of plausible future food scenario is
fraught with well known uncertainties and problems, but the trends and projections of
demand and supply of various important food items help policy makers to take
informed policy decisions relating to food security and food self sufficiency situation
of the country which justify the need of the study.
5.1: Per Capita availability of Food Grains:
In the pre reform period the growth of agriculture was not so impressive. In
this time period the population and income grow at the fast rate. But the food
production was not able to keep pace with it and it is the main reason of declining net
per capita availability of food grains. Figure: 5.1 shows the trends in per capita food
consumption since 1991: This shows a continuous declining trend. The annual per
capita net availability of food grains has been falling steadily during reform period. If
we consider the five year moving average from 1991 to 2012(Figure: 5.2) the figures
decline every five year without exception from 186.2 kg/per year in 1991 to 164.2 kg/
per year in 2012. The cereal per capita availability declined from 171 kg/ per annum
in 1991 to 149.1 kg/ per annum in 2012. In the decade of 2001 to 2011 the population
of India has increased 17.64 per cent. This decade also witnessed the good production
growth in cereals as compare to 1991-92 to 2000-01, but still the per capita
consumption of all the food grains is declining. It is clear from above analysis that the
main food grain demand pusher (population and per capita income), are growing
faster than domestic production of food grains. The per capita cereals has declined by
12.8 percent (from 171 kg to 149.1 kg) in time period from 1991-92 to 2011-12 and
by 3.6 percent (from 154.3 kg to 149.1 kg) in 2000-01 to 2011-12. The superior
cereals rice and wheat, which are the main constituent of countries food security, their
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per capita availability also declined over the period. The per capita availability of rice
declined by 14 percent (from 80.9 kg to 69.4 kg) since 1991 and the wheat net per
capita availability declined by 3.8 percent (from 60 kg to 57.7kg) during this period.
The net per capita availability of pulses shows no change form 1991-92 to 2011-2. In
the decades of nineties the production of pulses decline so the per capita availability
10.6 kg per year in 2003 from 15.2 kg in 1991. After 2007 it showed increasing trend
because of special effort of government under NFSM which raised the production of
pulses in the country. In 2012 the pulses net availability again increased to the level of
1991 i.e. 15.2. The net availability of food grains during the period of 1991 to 2012
decline by 11 percent and by 1 percent from 2001 to 2012. This negative trend in per
capita production and availability of food grains had appeared in early 1991 and
continues since then. So it shows that country is not able to keep pace with demand.
Figure: 5.1 Trends in annual per capita consumption of food (in kgs)
Source: Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Department of Agricultural and Cooperation.
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Figure: 5.2 Five year moving average of annual per capita consumption of food
(in kgs)
Source: Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Department of Agricultural and Cooperation.
In consequences of rising demand of food grains due to the factor like increase
in population, rise in per capita income create a pressure of rising price in economy.
After 2006-07 food price increase drastically (Table: 4.1). The rising pressure of
world food demand and supply shocks also contributed in rise in prices of food grains.
Table: 4.1 show the rate of inflation of Whole-sale Price Index from 2006-07 to 2012-
13. Most of the time food grain inflation remains above the acceptable level of 4
percent. The year 2006-07, 2009-10 and 2012-13 faced the prominent rise in prices.
Pulses which are the main source of protein of low income household face major burn
of rising prices. In 2006-07 the pulses witnessed the 31.6 percent of growth in prices
and 19.6 percent in 2012-13. The household with low income are more vulnerable to
these rising prices and affect their food security by affecting their access to food
grains. In India food expenditure constitute 38.6 percent of total household
expenditure, so the rising price because of supply bottlenecks has serious impact upon
country food security.
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Table: 5.1 Growth rate of (Inflation) WPI of food grains (Base: 2004-05=100)
Year
(weight)
Food grain
(4.09)
Cereals
(3.37)
Rice
(1.79)
Wheat
(1.12)
Pulses
(0.72)
2006-07 14.1 10.1 4.6 19.1 31.6
2007-08 6.9 9.5 11.3 7.3 -2.8
2008-09 11 11.9 14.8 9.9 7.5
2009-10 14.5 12.6 12.3 12.8 22.4
2010-11 4.9 5.3 5.9 3 3.2
2011-12 3.6 3.9 3.1 -1.8 2.5
2012-13 14.6 13.4 12.7 15.6 19.6
Source: Agriculture Statistics at Glance, Ministry of Agriculture
5.2: Plausible Future Scenario of Food Security:
In country like India it was always a big challenge to feed the growing
population. With the robust economic growth, rising population, where agriculture
still a gamble of monsoon; policy makers always face tough question like: what will
be the food demand in future? Will India be able to feed its growing population or it
will it have to depend on large amount of imports? So study projecting of food
demand and supply is always like a light house that will guide their path in making
appropriate policies. There is number of studies which projects future food grain
demand and supply. Some of the well known studies of demand and supply projection
of food grains are showed in Table: 5.2 and 5.3. The demand and supply projections
are different for every study because of different assumptions made about the
parameters on which demand and supply depends. The estimates for cereal demands
range from 237.3 million tons (Rosegrant et.al., 1995)1 to 374.7 million tons (Bhalla,
2001) 2
in 2020. It can be assumed from those studies the demand that on an average
the food grain demand will range around 250-260 million tons. The demand for food
grains range from 281 million tons to 296 million tons. On the other hand supply
projection for the country range from 259.8 to 289.6 million tons for cereals and 296
to 24 million tons for food grains. These studies show India hardly meets its food
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demand even in some cases supply can fall shorts of total food demand. This can be a
major implication for the food security of country. During the period from 1991 to
2007 agriculture growth shows a declining trend in India. Most of these studies
conducted on the basis of this time period. In 11th
FYP plan agriculture get more
coverage and there were improvement agriculture production trends. It can be hoped
there will be improvement in future food grain supply.
Table: 5.2 Demand Projection (million tons)
Study Year Rice Wheat Total
cereals
Pulses Food
grain
Rosegrant et. Al. (1995)
2020 -- -- 237.3 -- --
Kumar (1998)3
2020 121.9 100.3 265.7 30.9 296.6
Bhalla (2001)
2020 -- -- 374.7 -- --
Chand (2007)4
2020 -- -- 261.5 19.1 280.6
Mittal (2008)5
2021 96.9 66.8 242.8 38.7 281.5
2026 102.2 69.1 273.5 51.5 324.5
Ganesh et. al. (2012)6
2020 101.4 82.6 -- 13.1 --
2025 104.7 91.5 -- 14.5 --
Table: 5.3 Supply Projection (million tons)
Study Year Rice Wheat Total
cereals
Pulses Food
grain
Kumar (1998) 2020 130.40 127.3 309 -- --
Mittal (2000)
2020 149.3 128.5 -- -- --
Kumar & Mittal (2003)7
2020 127 111.5 274. 15.2 289.2
Mittal (2008) 2021 105.8 91.6 242.2 17.6 259.8
2026 111.2 97.9 260.2 18.4 278.6
Ganesh et. al. (2012) 2020 135.9 96.3 -- -- --
2025 153.1 102 -- -- --
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5.3 Demand Forecast:
Forecasting of food grains demands for India has been done on the basis of
two techniques; Normative Approach and Absorption Approach. Besides direct
demand, there is also an important component of total demand which includes seed,
feed, industrial uses and wastage, and has been termed as „indirect demand‟.
Conventionally, the indirect demand is assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the total food
grain production; an assumption being used since 1950s for all official estimates.
5.3.1 Normative Approach:
The normative approach is based on the requirement of food and nutrient
contents of balanced diet for moderately active person or for sedentary life style. The
National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad has prescribed the normative requirement
per capita per day for different life styles. As per NIN (ICMR2010) the recommended
dietary allowance for Indian with moderate and sedentary life style are as following
for food grains:
Table: 5.4 Recommended Dietary Allowance for Indian of Different Life Styles
(kgs/year/per capita)
Food Items Annual per capita
Requirements for
Moderate Life Style
Annual per capita
Requirements for
Sedentary Life Style
Cereals 146 kg 122kg
Pulses 29.2 kg 25 kg
Edible Oils 10.5 kg 9 kg
Source:
Multiplying the per capita consumption by the projected population of each of the
year gives the total requirement for human consumption.
Total Domestic Demand = (Annual per capita Consumption * Population) +
SFW. This approach also assume short term static Behaviour in Consumption, i.e.
increase in income level has no effect on consumption.
The demand projection based on the recommended diet for sedentary life style
is shown in Table: 5.5 after adjusting it with SFW ratio it gives the minimum demand
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of food grains for the country in coming decade. The population projection was used
given by FAOSTAT based on current census. According to this approach the total
demand for cereals will be 185.74 million tons in 2020-21 and 165.10 million only for
food purposes. This demand increases to with increase in population to 194.72 million
tons in 2025-26 and 202.63 million tons in 2030-31. Pulses which are very important
for nutrition security of Indian population, where more than half people are vegetarian
reached to 38 million tons in 2020-21, 39.90 million tons in 2025-26 and 41.52
million tons in 20230-31. That is the minimum demand that the country should meet
to ensure nutrition security for its population. The total for food will be 223.80 million
tons in 2020-21, 234.62 million tons in 2025-26 and 244.15 million tons in 2030-31.
In which net food grain demand constitutes 198.93 million tons, 208.55 million tons
and 217.02 million tons respectively for 2020-21, 2025-26 and 2030-31.
Table: 5.5 Demand Projection with Sedentary Life Styles:
(in million tons)
Year Cereals Pulses Food Grain
2015-16 176.00 36.06 212.07
2020-21 185.74 38.06 223.80
2025-26 194.72 39.90 234.62
2030-31 202.63 41.52 244.15
Source: Based on table no. 5.4, Data for Population taken from FAOSTAT.
Table: 5.6 shows the total food grain demand for moderate life style. The total
food grain demand for moderate life style is greater than the food demand under
sedentary life style a food requirement for moderate life style is higher compare to
sedentary life style. The total cereal demand in 2020-21 will be 222.28 million tons
and 197.5 million tons net cereal demand. The net cereals demand increase to 207.13
million tons in 2025-26 and total cereal demand will be 233.02 million tons. In 2030-
31 the total cereal demand increases to242.50 million ton. The pulses demand will be
44.45 million in 2020-21which increase to 48.50 million tons in 2030-31. The total
food grains demand according to recommended diet will be 266.73 million tons in
2020-21 and 237.09 million tons consist of net food grain demand. Food grains
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demand will increase to 279.63 million tons in 2025-26. In 2030-31 the total food
grain demand will be 290.99 million tons, and net food demand will be 258.66 million
tons according to normative approach.
Table: 5.6 Demand Projection with Moderate Life Style:
(in million tons)
Year Cereals Pulses Food Grain
2015-16 210.63 42.12 252.75
2020-21 222.28 44.45 266.73
2025-26 233.02 46.60 279.63
2030-31 242.50 48.50 290.99
Source: Based on table no. 5.4, Data for Population taken from FAOSTAT.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation recommend the 440 gm of food grain
per day for active and healthy life and ensure food security in India8. The FAO
dietary recommendation (160kg per year) falls within the range of dietary
recommendation given by NIN for sedentary lifestyle (147 kg per year) and moderate
lifestyle (175.2 kg per year). So, if we apply normative approach on FAO
recommendation to find food demand, it will provide more balance picture.
According to FAO norms the food demand will be 243.59 million tons in 2020-21.
With the growing population this will reached to 255.37 million tons in 2025-26 and
265.74 million tons in 230-31. This is the minimum food grain requirement for
country to ensure food security at national level.
5.3.2 Absorption Approach:
The second approach of estimating demand is absorption approach. The
biggest benefit of this approach is, there is no need to make any assumption seed,
feed, wastage and industrial use and there is no reliable estimates regarding SFW. The
absorption in economy includes human consumption, animal feed, seed, industrial
use, wastage and any change in private stocks with traders, farmers and household.
Actual demand absorption of a commodity in a particular year is estimated by
addition of production and net imports minus change in government stocks. Normally
the absorption has smooth behaviour, but many time it fluctuate due to change in
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especially related with the private sector stocks affects the total absorption in year9.
To estimate the future food demand the annual absorption since 1991-92 to 2010-11
annual absorption data had been taken. Over the years the absorption of major food
grains shows increasing trends. The total absorption of food grains was 173.4 million
tons in 1991-92 this increase to 232.9 million tons in 2010-11. Cereals absorption
increase to 161 million tons in 1991-92 and increase to 212.4 million tons. The
absorption of rice and wheat increases to 90.5 million and 82.5 million tons in 2011-
12 from 75.6 million tons and 59.4 million tons. Pulses absorption increases to 20.5
million tons in 2010-11 from 12.3 million tons.
Table: 5.7 Annual Absorption of Food Grains
(in million tons)
YEAR RICE Wheat Coarse
Grain
Cereals Pulses Food
Grains
1991-92 75.6 59.4 26 161 12.3 173.4
1992-93 70.5 50.1 36.6 157.2 13.2 170.4
1993-94 75.3 57.5 30.7 163.5 13.9 177.3
1994-95 77.7 63.9 29.8 171.4 14.5 186
1995-96 75.6 66.6 29 171.2 12.7 183.9
1996-97 81.2 71.5 34 186.7 14.8 201.6
1997-98 79.1 62.8 30.4 172.3 13.8 186
1998-99 82.6 67.1 31.3 181 15.4 196.4
1999-2000 83.9 72.4 30.5 186.8 13.5 220.3
2000-01 75.2 57.7 30.8 163.7 11.2 174.9
2001-02 91.9 68 33.5 193.4 15.4 208.8
2002-03 77.8 79 26 182.8 13 195.7
2003-04 85.3 73.1 36.4 194.8 16.5 211.3
2004-05 79 71.3 32.3 182.6 14.2 196.9
2005-06 86.6 74.9 33 194.5 14.6 209.1
2006-07 88.8 77.1 34.4 200.3 16.2 216.5
2007-08 90 68.4 37.4 195.8 17.4 213.2
2008-09 88.3 72.7 35.5 196.5 16.9 213.4
2009-10 82.3 80.3 31.1 193.7 18.1 211.7
2010-11 90.5 82.5 39.4 212.4 20.5 232.9
Source: Planning Commission Report of Working Group on Food Grains
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The absorption per year shows the increasing trend in table: 5.7. It can be
assumed in normal conditions if population is increasing the absorption per year will
also increase. There is some fluctuation in these trends; this is due to change in the
stock with government and private traders. The projection of future food grain
demands has been done different alternative scenario. First simple trend has been
extrapolated to find the future demand. But, to smoothen the fluctuation three year
and five year moving average has been calculated and corresponding growth rates has
been estimated. The food grain demand was projected on the basis of point to point
CAGR after taking different base year scenarios.
Table: 5.8 show the projection of total demand of rice in coming decade. If we
simply follow the absorption trend of rice consumption give in Table: 5.8 the rice
demand will be around 97.6 million tons in 2020-21 which increase to 105 million
tons in 2030-31. The demand for rice in 2030-31 ranges from 105 million tons to
108.5 million tons under alternative scenario. The projection using exponential trends
gives highest projection. If we calculate rice demand using three year moving
average; the compound annual growth rates of absorption comes 0.92 percent. Taking
the average of 2008-11 as base year, the estimates for rice demand comes 96.25
million tons for 2015-16, 100.76 million tons for 2025-26 and 105.48 million tons for
2030-31. If we take five year moving average of absorption of rice then the CAGR
was observed 1.1 percent and which gives the projection of demand 99.13 million
tons in 2015-16. The rice demand will be 104.19 million tons in 2025-26 and 109.51
million tons in 2030-31 using this scenario.
Table: 5.8 Rice Demand Projections
(million tons)
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 93.23 93.89 91.95 94.32
2020-21 97.16 98.52 96.25 99.13
2025-26 101.08 103.39 100.76 104.19
2030-31 105.00 108.5 105.48 109.51
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
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Table: 5.9 observed the future demand projection for wheat. The demand for
wheat in 2030-31 ranges 102.18 million tons to 112.34 million tons. Simple trend
analysis shows that wheat demand will be 90.87 in 2020-21, 96.52 million tons in
2025-26 and 102.18 million ton in 2030-31. Exponential trend slightly overestimated
the demand in comparison of other alternatives. This trend shows the wheat demand
will be 103.25 million tons in 2025-26 and 112.34 million tons in 2030-31. The
estimates of wheat demand calculated on the basis of three year moving average
shows the demand will be 107.31 million tons in 2030-31. The CAGR for three year
moving average of absorption comes 1.5 percent, with the base year consumption
78.5 it shows that it will increase to 99.61 in 2025-26. The estimates based on five
year moving average, with 1.4 percent CAGR, shows wheat consumption will be
96.51 million tons in 2025-26 and 103.46 million tons in 2030-31.
Table: 5.9 Wheat Demand Projections
(million tons)
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 85.21 87.22 85.83 83.98
2020-21 90.87 94.90 92.46 90.03
2025-26 96.52 103.25 99.61 96.51
2030-31 102.18 112.34 107.31 103.46
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
With the improvement in economic condition the consumption of coarse grain
has been down but they are still play important role ensuring food security at local
level. In recent decade there is increase in demand for coarse cereals because of
increase in their industrial uses. The estimates show that the demand will be around
41 to 43 million tons for food grains in 2030-31. The projection based on three year
moving average with 0.84 percent annual growth rate will be 40.39 million tons in
2025-26 and 42.11 million tons in 2030-31. Five year moving average of absorption
with 0.89 annual growth rate estimate coarse grain demand 39.54 million tons in
2020-21, 41.34 million tons in 2025-26 and 43.21 million tons in 2030-31.
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Table: 5.10 Coarse Cereals Demand Projections
(million tons)
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 36.87 36.98 37.15 37.83
2020-21 38.42 38.78 38.73 39.54
2025-26 39.96 40.67 40.39 41.34
2030-31 41.50 42.65 42.11 43.21
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
In 2030-31 the total demand for cereals ranges from 246.81 million ton to
261.81 million tons. According to simple trends basis the total cereal demand will be
226.41 million tons in 2020-21, 237.58 million tons 2025-26 and 248.7 million tons in
2030-31. Based on three year moving average with 1.2 percent of annual growth rate
the demand for cereals will reached to 229.03 million tons in 2020-21, 243.10 million
tons in 2025-26 and 258.04 million tons in 2030-31. The five year moving average
with 0.96 percent annual growth the demand will reach to 234.96 million tons in
2025-26 and 246.96 million tons in 2030-31.
Table: 5.11 Total Cereals Demand Projection
(million tons)
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 215.33 217.91 215.76 213.55
2020-21 226.41 231.66 229.03 224.00
2025-26 237.58 246.27 243.10 234.96
2030-31 248.7 261.81 258.04 246.96
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
The pulses consumption will rise with the increase in per capita income. The
pulses demand will range from 21.71 to 24.22 million tons in 2025-26; this will reach
around 24 to 26 million tons in 2030-31. The exponential trend shows the demand for
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pulses will be 20.87 million tons in 2020-21, 22.82 million tons in 2025-26 and 24.94
million tons in 2030-31. The three year moving average taking average of 2008-09 to
2010-11 as base year with 1.7 growth rate the absorption of pulses will be 22.26
million tons in 2020-21, 24.22 million tons in 2025-26 and 26.35 million tons in
2030-31. With five year moving average, CAGR was observed 1.4 percent and
estimates for total pulses demand comes 22.83 million tons for 2025-26 and 24.56
million tons for 2030-31.
Table: 5.12 Pulses Demand Projection
(million tons)
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 18.93 19.1 20.46 19.73
2020-21 20.32 20.87 22.26 21.23
2025-26 21.71 22.82 24.22 22.83
2030-31 23.1 24.94 26.35 24.56
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
The projection for total food grain demand will also made using alternative
scenario. In 2020-21 the food grain demand will ranges between 246.85 million tons
to 252.51 million tons, this will ranges between 271.38 million tons to 285.91 million
tons in 2030-31. It can be safely assumed the food grain demand will be around 280
million tons in 2030-31. With three year moving average total food grain demand
comes 252.81 million tons for 2020-21, 269.68 million tons in 2025-26 and 287.67
million tons in 2030-31, observing 1.3 percent of annual growth rate. The estimates
for total food grain demand comes 252.51 million tons for 2020-21, 268.69 million
tons for 2025-26 and 285.91 million tons for 2030-31, by taking five year moving
average.
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Table: 5.13 Total Food Grain Demand Projections:
Year Trend Exponential
Trend
3 MA 5 MA
2015-16 234.57 237.45 237.00 237.3
2020-21 246.85 252.65 252.81 252.51
2025-26 259.12 268.93 269.68 268.69
2030-31 271.38 286.2 287.67 285.91
Source: calculated from Table: 5.7
5.4 Food Grain Supply Projection:
The future food grain supply of India is projected on two methods. The first
simple business as usual approach the by fitting simple linear regression equation as
under:
Yi = a + bTi
Simple regression estimates on time as explanatory variable from 1991-92 to
2012-13 has been extrapolated to find the future supply. This approach assumed
future movement in data series is determined by the past pattern embedded in the
series and past trend will continue in future also.
The second approach based upon simple The second approach based on
simple production function approach i.e.
Production = f (Area, Yield)
Production= Area * Yield
To project the future supply average annual growth rates of area and yield was
calculated and on the basis of growth rate future area and yield of particular crops was
estimated and this estimated area and yield was used to project the future food grain
supply. This approach assumed the current increase in productivity growth will
remain in future also, and area expansion will also take place.
Table: 5.14 shows the future supply of food grains in India. Rice and wheat
are the main cereals, on which India food security depends. The production of rice
based on the production trend from 1991-91 to 2012-13 shows that the rice supply
will be around 111.44 million tons in 2020-21, 117.87 million tons in 2025-26 and
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124.29 2030-31. If the growth rates of area and yield are calculated for this period the
growth came 0.005 percent for area and 1.3 percent for yield. It shows that the further
area expansion is not possible and the increase in future supply will depend upon
yield growth. On the basis of yield and area growth the supply of rice comes 112.31
million tons for 2020-21, 120.40 million tons for 2025-26 and 129.07 million tons in
2030-31.
The supply of wheat based first method shows that the wheat production will
be 100.90 million tons in 2020-21, 108.52 million tons in 2025-26 and 116.16 million
tons in 2030-31(Table: 5.14). The wheat area registered the average annual growth
0.85 percent and yield growth rate was observed 1.13 percent by assuming triennium
ending 2012-13 as base year the wheat production will be 106.96 million tons in
2020-21, 118.03 million tons in 2025-26 and 130.25 million tons in 2030-31. If we
assume no further area expansion will not be possible the wheat production will be
105.73 million tons in 2025-26 and 111.84 million tons in 2030-31.
The supply of coarse cereals will be around 44.04 million tons in 2020-21 and
46.75 million tons in 2025-26, this will reached to 49.47 percent in 2030-31. With the
advent of green revolution the importance of coarse cereals declines. The area under
coarse cereals registered negative growth of 1.08 percent during the time period from
1991-91 to 2012-13; in the same period the yield registered the growth of 2.7 percent.
Based upon this scenario taking triennium ended 2012-13 as base period the
production of coarse cereals will be 47.63 million tons in 2020-21, 51.62 million tons
in 2025-26 and 55.95 million tons in 2030-31 (Table: 5.14). The total cereal
production of country will be around 253.61 million tons in 2020-21, 269.74 million
tons in 2025-26 and 285.81 million tons in 2030-31. (Table: 5.14).
The pulses production be extrapolating current production trends comes 17.7
million tons in 2020-21, 18.68 million tons in 2025-26 and 19.67 million tons in
2030-31. The area under pulses registered the annual growth rate of 0.38 percent
during the time period from 1991-91 to 2012-13 and the yield registered the growth of
1 percent. Based upon these growth rates and taking triennium ended 2012-13 as base
period the production of pulses will be 20.05 million tons in 2020-21, 21.48 million
tons in 2025-26 and 23.01 million tons in 2030-31 (Table: 5.14). During the green
revolution pulses did not get enough policy importance and their production decline
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continuously. But in 2007-08 they again get the policy focus and under NFSM effort
are done to increase the productivity of pulses in low productivity areas. This is the
reason during the period from 2001-02 to 2012-13 the area under pulses registered the
growth of 1.2 percent and productivity of pulses rise with rate of 2.3 percent per
annum. If we take this scenario continue the pulses production will be around 23.71
million tons in 2020-21, 28.20 million tons in 2025-26 and 33.54 million tons in
2030-31. The total food production of the country will be around 271.32 million tons
in 2020-21, 288.44 million tons in 2025-26 and 305.56 million tons in 2030-31
(Table: 5.14).
Table: 5.14 Supply Projections of Food Grains
(million tons)
Crops Methods 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31
Rice I 105.02 111.44 117.87 124.29
II 104.76 112.31 120.40 129.07
Wheat I 93.28 100.90 108.52 116.16
II 96.92 106.96 118.03 130.25
Coarse
Cereals
I 41.32 44.04 46.75 49.47
II 43.95 47.63 51.62 55.95
Pulses I 16.71 17.7 18.62 19.67
II 18.72 20.05 21.48 23.01
Cereals I 237.48 253.61 269.74 285.87
Food grain I 254.2 271.32 288.44 305.56
Source: Calculation based on data from various issues of Agriculture Statistics at Glance.
5.5 Future Food Security Situation:
Comparison of the projected demand for food grains for 2015-16, 2020-21,
2025-26 and 2030-31 with their corresponding forecasted supply (domestic
production) will provide an estimate of the possible future surplus or deficit. The
future surplus and deficit situation is predicted by taking average of demand and
supply projected from all scenarios. Figure: 5.3 and 5.4 show that there will be
surplus situation for two main cereals rice and wheat. In case of rice the surplus
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ranges from 13 million tons to 16 million tons in 2020-21, 16 to 19 million tons in
2025-26 and 14 to 19 million tons in 2030-31. In case of wheat the surplus will ranges
from 10 million tons to 14 million tons in 2020-21, 5 to 12 million tons in 2025-26
and 13 to 17 million in 2030-31.
Figure: 5.3 Future Demand and Supply of Rice
Source: based on Table 5.8 & 5.14
Figure: 5.4 Future Demand and Supply of Wheat
Source: based on Table 5.9 & 5.14
Figure: 5.5 show the situation of pulses in coming decade in India. The
analysis shows there will be deficit of pulses production. The green line in figure
shows the pulses demand based on absorption approach and red line shows the
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demand projection based on normative approach. The normative approach gives the
minimum requirement of pulses, to maintain the healthy life. Pulses are the key of
nutritional security of India. Still India‟s pulses absorption is very low to recommend
diet. This analysis shows that despite the fact India is the largest producer of pulses; it
has to depend upon the import of pulses. The deficit of pulses will be around 20
million tons based on the normative approach and 3 million tons according to
absorption approach in 2030-31.
Figure: 5.5 Future Demand and Supply of Pulses
Source: based on Table 5.12 & 5.14
Figure: 5.6 Future Demand and Supply of Coarse Cereals
Source: based on Table 5.10 & 5.14
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Figure: 5.7 Future Demand and Supply of Cereals
Source: based on Table 5.11 & 5.14
Figure: 5.8 Future Demand and Supply of Food Grain
Source: based on Table 5.13 & 5.14
Figure: 5.6 presents demand and supply balance of coarse cereals. The coarse
cereals used for dual purpose food and fodder as well. After green revolution period
the coarse grains lost area on the account of declining demand due to change in food
habits. However, coarse grain uses has increased feed and fodder use in livestock
sector. The figure: 5.6 shows surplus in coarse grain production. But it can be possible
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with the increasing importance of livestock sector; there can be increase in coarse
grain demand, which can create stress on surplus of coarse cereals.
The cereals supply and demand balance is shown in Figure: 5.7. In case of
cereals the surplus ranges from 12 million tons to 25 million tons in 2025-26, 14
million tons to 25 million tons in 2025-26, this surplus can be around 30 million tons
in 2030-31. In case of food grain India will remain self-sufficient and food surplus
will range around 20 to 30 million tons in 2030-31. These trends suggest that
managing the projected growth in surplus rather than managing any deficit is likely to
be the bigger policy challenge for India in the future, especially in the case of rice and
wheat. According to the expenditure estimates by NSSO, the share of cereals in total
food expenditure is declining with the increase in income. The share of cereals
expenditure comes down to 12 percent in rural area and 7.3 percent in urban area in
2012-12 from 24.2 percent and 14 percent respectively in 1993-94. On the other hand
the share of livestock products and edible oil is increasing. In case of edible oil India
is net importer. This makes a case for diversification of agriculture. With declining
cereal demand and in case of cereals production India will remain self sufficient, so
there is need to focus more on pulses production and horticulture products.
5.6 Haryana: Future Supply of Food Grains:
Haryana is being the granary of country; play important role in securing food
self sufficiency. Haryana almost cover 3 percent area of country under total food grain
production and contribute around 7 percent of food grain. The major contribution of
state is in terms of rice and production. Haryana contribute around 4 percent of rice
and 11 percent of wheat in national production. In case of procurement of wheat and
rice the Haryana share is around 6 to 7 percent for rice and around 25 percent for
wheat. Thus Haryana is the key state, which holds the foundation of country food
security firm. After estimating future supply for country in this section we will
estimate the future supply of wheat and rice of Haryana.
Table 5.15 provides the future wheat and rice supply scenario in Haryana. The
first method project the supply by extrapolating the past production trend, the second
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method based on area and yield growth rates. Analysis in chapter three shows that
area under most of food grain production in Haryana reached to plateau and there is
very minimal possibility to increase production by raising the area. So, the method
three assume constant area and supply projection is made assuming that there will be
only increase in yield rates. The table shows that the production of rice will be remain
4 to 5 million tonnes in 2030-31 and the share of Haryana in total rice production
remain consistent around 3 to 4 percent. The production of wheat reached to 20.9
million tonnes in 2030-31, if the growth observed from 1991-92 to 2012-13 will
remain continue i.e. 1.8 percent per annum for area and 1.3 percent per annum for
yield. If there is no further increase in area than the wheat production will be around
15.88 million tonnes in 2030-31. The share of Haryana in wheat production will be
remain stable around 12 percent. The yield growth will be key to increase in future
production of food grains. But the yield growth of rice and wheat are not so robust for
Haryana. The analysis in chapter four shows that because of inherent structural
constraints the food grain production in other states is low. So Haryana and Punjab
region will also hold important place in future food grain self-sufficiency. Stagnation
in yield growth rates is cause of concern which requires extra efforts on policy and
research front.
Table: 5.15 Future Rice and Wheat Supply of Haryana
Year Rice Wheat
I II III I II III
2015-16 4.13 3.90 3.80 12.53 13.2 12.33
2020-21 4.62 4.38 4.01 13.76 15.41 13.42
2025-26 5.11 4.9 4.24 15 17.6 14.60
2030-31 5.60 5.5 4.47 16.21 20.9 15.88
Source: Calculations based on the data from various issue of Statistical Abstract of Haryana
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5.7 Conclusion:
This chapter examined the future demand and supply of food grains and
the scenario of food security in the coming decade. After reform period the
annual per capita net availability of food grains has been falling steadily. The
five year moving average of per capita net availability of food grains from 1991
to 2012 declines every five year without exception from 186.2 kg/per year in
1991 to 164.2 kg/ per year in 2012. The cereal per capita availability decl ined
from 171 kg/ per annum in 1991 to 149.1 kg/ per annum in 2012. The food
inflation also witnessed rising trend in recent decade because of increasing
population pressure and supply bottlenecks. This make a case to study the future
demand and supply situation of food grains to ensure food security of country.
According to normative approach based on the recommended diet by the
national institute of nutrition the demand for food grain will range from 212
million tonnes to 252 million tonnes in 2015-16 based on different life style. In
2030-31 the demand for food grains will range from 244 million tonnes to 290
million tonnes. The demand projection based on absorption approach showed
that the food grain demand will be range from 271 million tonnes to 287 million
tonnes in 2030-31. The supply of food grain for this time period will be around
305 million tonnes. if the demand and supply balance of individual food crops is
considered, there will be a surplus in case of wheat and rice. The surplus in case
of rice in 2030-31 will range between 14 to 19 million tonnes and 13 to 17
million tonnes for wheat. In case of coarse cereals there will also a situation of
surplus. But in case of pulses, which is the major source of nutrition the huge
deficit is noted. The gap between demand and supply of pulses will be around 20
million tonnes in 2030-31. The contribution of Haryana will remain consistent
in wheat and rice production of the country. In the nutshell managing the
projected growth in surplus rather than managing any deficit is likely to be the
bigger policy challenge for India in the future, especially in case of rice and
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wheat. There is need to focus more on pulses production which is the need of
the day. Every possible effort need to be made for efficient implementation of
NFSA 2013 which requires the role of all the stakeholders of food security
of India.
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