Chapter 7Chapter 7Managing Emerging Managing Emerging

TechnologiesTechnologies

Paula GouldingPaula Goulding

Chapter OutlineChapter Outline

Importance of understanding emerging Importance of understanding emerging technologiestechnologies

Should organization be pioneer, leader, or Should organization be pioneer, leader, or followerfollower

Best time to adopt new technologyBest time to adopt new technology How to introduce and appropriate apply new How to introduce and appropriate apply new

technologytechnology

Technology Life CycleTechnology Life Cycle

Emerging TechnologyEmerging Technology– Technology considered innovationTechnology considered innovation– Still developing in capability/capacityStill developing in capability/capacity

Pacing Technology Pacing Technology – Technology is growing in acceptanceTechnology is growing in acceptance

Key TechnologyKey Technology– Provides competitive differentialProvides competitive differential

Base TechnologyBase Technology– Final phase of life cycleFinal phase of life cycle– Required technologyRequired technology

Adoption of TechnologyAdoption of Technology Innovators Innovators (Technology enthusiasts)(Technology enthusiasts)

– Willing to take higher risksWilling to take higher risks

Early Adopters Early Adopters (Visionaries)(Visionaries)– More visionaryMore visionary

Early Majority Early Majority (Pragmatists)(Pragmatists)– Wait for more assurance for success of technologyWait for more assurance for success of technology

Late Majority Late Majority (Conservatives)(Conservatives)– Must adopt technology to stay currentMust adopt technology to stay current

Laggards Laggards (Skeptics)(Skeptics)– True skeptics; must adopt to stay in the marketTrue skeptics; must adopt to stay in the market

Moore’s Product Provider View of Moore’s Product Provider View of Technology InnovationTechnology Innovation

Early MarketEarly Market– Look to be first with new Look to be first with new

paradigmparadigm

ChasmChasm– Early market interest Early market interest

waneswanes

Bowling AlleyBowling Alley– Niche-based adoption in Niche-based adoption in

advance of general advance of general marketplacemarketplace

TornadoTornado– Mass-market adoptionMass-market adoption

Main StreetMain Street– Aftermarket developmentAftermarket development– Flesh out potentialFlesh out potential

End of LifeEnd of Life– Ignored and presumed in Ignored and presumed in

original modeloriginal model– Enable new paradigms Enable new paradigms

to come to marketto come to market

Implications of Not Keeping Pace with Technology

Loss of competitive edge,

58%

Increased cost of production, 16%

W ould not be in business, 13%

Other, 3%

Lack of control in running the

business, 7%

W ould not happen, 3%

Strategies for Technology DevelopmentStrategies for Technology Development

Diffusion CurveDiffusion Curve

Managing ChangeManaging Change

Learning S-CurveLearning S-Curve

Three Strategic PosturesThree Strategic Postures

Shape the futureShape the future– Play leadership role in establishing how industry Play leadership role in establishing how industry

operatesoperates Adopt to the futureAdopt to the future

– Recognizing and capturing opportunities in Recognizing and capturing opportunities in existing marketsexisting markets

Reserve right to playReserve right to play– Invest sufficiently to stay in the gameInvest sufficiently to stay in the game– Avoid premature commitmentsAvoid premature commitments

Innovations Influence on Rate of AdoptionInnovations Influence on Rate of Adoption

Relative AdvantageRelative Advantage– Considers degree innovation is perceived to be betterConsiders degree innovation is perceived to be better

CompatibilityCompatibility– Higher level of compatibility with values and needsHigher level of compatibility with values and needs

ComplexityComplexity– If difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rateIf difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rate

TrialabilityTrialability– If easily experimental, will have better adoption chanceIf easily experimental, will have better adoption chance

ObservabilityObservability– Degree to which innovation can be seenDegree to which innovation can be seen

Increasing Returns of AdoptionIncreasing Returns of Adoption

Learning by usingLearning by using– Increase in benefits technology brings as Increase in benefits technology brings as

adopters gain experience and knowledgeadopters gain experience and knowledge Positive network externalitiesPositive network externalities

– Greater the number of users, greater the benefitGreater the number of users, greater the benefit Technological interrelatednessTechnological interrelatedness

– Existence of compatible products that will Existence of compatible products that will increase larger base of adoptersincrease larger base of adopters

Characteristics of Early AdoptersCharacteristics of Early Adopters

Ability to amortize costs of learningAbility to amortize costs of learning Ability to acquire any given amount of new Ability to acquire any given amount of new

knowledge with less effortknowledge with less effort Higher level of initial knowledge about given Higher level of initial knowledge about given

technologytechnology

Assimilation GapAssimilation Gap

Source: Fichman, Robert G., Kemerer, Chris F. The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps , Information Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1999.

Identifying Emerging TechnologiesIdentifying Emerging Technologies

What Can Happen?What Can Happen?– Keep abreast of technologies being developedKeep abreast of technologies being developed

What Will Happen?What Will Happen?– Engineering hurdles may existEngineering hurdles may exist

What Should Happen?What Should Happen?– Consideration of social, political, and ethical Consideration of social, political, and ethical

issuesissues How Will It Happen?How Will It Happen?

– R&D may envision product differently than actual R&D may envision product differently than actual application of itapplication of it

Inhibitors to Emerging TechnologyInhibitors to Emerging Technology

Delayed participationDelayed participation Sticking with the familiarSticking with the familiar Reluctance to fully commitReluctance to fully commit Lack of persistenceLack of persistence

Human Resource ConsiderationsHuman Resource Considerations Availability of TalentAvailability of Talent

– Best personnel to evaluate technologyBest personnel to evaluate technology Resource AllocationResource Allocation

– Dedicated resources for evaluation and Dedicated resources for evaluation and implementationimplementation

MotivationMotivation– Project failure/success is a possibilityProject failure/success is a possibility

Knowledge ManagementKnowledge Management– Sharing of lessons learnedSharing of lessons learned– Utilize outside consultantsUtilize outside consultants– Protect new knowledge for competitive advantageProtect new knowledge for competitive advantage

Technology ScanningTechnology Scanning Keeping abreast of developments in technologyKeeping abreast of developments in technology

– Books and PeriodicalsBooks and Periodicals

– Formal StudiesFormal Studies

– Personal ContactsPersonal Contacts

– Professional Organizations/Workshops/ConventionsProfessional Organizations/Workshops/Conventions

– R & D OrganizationsR & D Organizations

– State and Federal DepartmentsState and Federal Departments

– UniversitiesUniversities

– Vendors and ConsultantsVendors and Consultants

– Early AdoptersEarly Adopters

Factors for Successful IntroductionFactors for Successful Introduction

1.1. Identify problem and opportunity that Identify problem and opportunity that technology addressestechnology addresses

2.2. Identify and empower a championIdentify and empower a champion

3.3. Create cross-functional, dedicated, Create cross-functional, dedicated, accountable teamaccountable team

4.4. Build supportive environment for introduction Build supportive environment for introduction of technologyof technology

5.5. Identify and address associated risksIdentify and address associated risks

6.6. Manage the projectManage the project

Technology Assessment ProcessTechnology Assessment Process

1.1. ScopingScoping• Establish scope/domain of technology searchEstablish scope/domain of technology search

2.2. SearchingSearching• Screen technologiesScreen technologies• Search for signs/viability of emerging technologySearch for signs/viability of emerging technology

3.3. EvaluatingEvaluating• Identify/prioritize technologiesIdentify/prioritize technologies• Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive

opportunitiesopportunities

4.4. CommittingCommitting• How it should be pursued and implementedHow it should be pursued and implemented

Selling Technology to Senior ExecutivesSelling Technology to Senior Executives

Sell business solutionSell business solution Identify value to Identify value to

organizationorganization Compare new to Compare new to

existing technologiesexisting technologies Consider range of Consider range of

alternativesalternatives Create champions Create champions

throughout organizationthroughout organization

Manage expectationsManage expectations Start small to mitigate Start small to mitigate

risksrisks Look to other industries Look to other industries

for changesfor changes Understand Understand

iterative/evolutionary iterative/evolutionary naturenature

UnderpromiseUnderpromise Be honestBe honest

Prioritize and FocusPrioritize and Focus

Prototype, demo, and show usersPrototype, demo, and show users Be intimate with business driversBe intimate with business drivers Understand business requirementsUnderstand business requirements Highlight benefitsHighlight benefits Weigh risksWeigh risks Identify those that enable new businessIdentify those that enable new business

Prioritize and FocusPrioritize and Focus

Identify those that are easily integratedIdentify those that are easily integrated Measure risks and ability to absorb Measure risks and ability to absorb

failure/successfailure/success Understand organizational cultureUnderstand organizational culture Set aside money for changesSet aside money for changes

Developing the Business CaseDeveloping the Business Case

Identify business needIdentify business need How does it fit in current prioritiesHow does it fit in current priorities Identify areas to be impactedIdentify areas to be impacted Benefits to/impact on bottom lineBenefits to/impact on bottom line Competitive landscapeCompetitive landscape Identify assumptions and justifyIdentify assumptions and justify

Developing the Business CaseDeveloping the Business Case

Utilize proof of concepts/prototypeUtilize proof of concepts/prototype Add validity to proof of conceptAdd validity to proof of concept Evaluate implementation optionsEvaluate implementation options Evaluate fitEvaluate fit FeedbackFeedback Identify project championIdentify project champion

When to Deploy Emerging TechnologiesWhen to Deploy Emerging Technologies

Look at industry trendsLook at industry trends BenchmarkBenchmark Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater

than doing itthan doing it Pilot technology to validate proof of Pilot technology to validate proof of

concept/directionconcept/direction Utilize outside consultants to evaluateUtilize outside consultants to evaluate

Lessons from the PastLessons from the Past

Expert predictions are fallibleExpert predictions are fallible Timing is relevantTiming is relevant Iterate and review frequentlyIterate and review frequently Which new technologies become adopted is Which new technologies become adopted is

hard to predicthard to predict Consequences of adoptions take long time Consequences of adoptions take long time

to become evidentto become evident

Laws of TechnologyLaws of Technology

Bigger Computers Are BetterBigger Computers Are Better– Grosch’s LawGrosch’s Law

Smaller Computers Are BetterSmaller Computers Are Better– MooreMoore

Connected Computers Are BetterConnected Computers Are Better– MetcalfeMetcalfe

Machines May Leap, but Programs CreepMachines May Leap, but Programs Creep– WirthWirth

Networks Will Triple Every YearNetworks Will Triple Every Year– GilderGilder