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Midlands Tomorrow 2035 LRTP Chapter 3 – Socioeconomic Analysis

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CHAPTER 3 - SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS 3.1 Introduction

Over the course of the past several decades, the Columbia area, like most mid-sized metropolitan areas in the southeastern United States, has undergone a variety of demographic and socio-economic changes. Considerable population growth has been accompanied by changes in residential and commercial development patterns. As these trends extend into the future and the population continues to grow, the Columbia area will be faced with increased pressure on its regional transportation system. Adequately planning for future transportation demand will entail preserving mobility, providing accessibility, and protecting the natural and social environment. These goals are important for sustaining the long term economic vitality of the region and enhancing its overall quality of life. This chapter examines past, present and future growth and development trends and provides a discussion of social vulnerability and environmental justice issues.

3.2 Population Trends

3.2.1 Existing Trends In the years following World War II, residential growth was confined primarily to the central urban core of Columbia, with only small pockets of scattered, rural development. In 1950, 63.2% of the population of Richland County resided in this area, which included the newly incorporated city of Forest Acres. As with most American cities, the next two decades were characterized by rapid decentralization so that by 1970, the central urban core had lost 13% of its population to the newly emerging suburbs. By the year 2000, only 39.3% of the counties population resided in the urban core, while many formerly rural portions of the Greater Columbia area had been transformed into major residential and employment centers. As a result of these population shifts, the boundaries of the COATS study area have expanded over time to accommodate the existing and future growth of the Columbia urbanized area.

In 1964, the original COATS study area had a population of 195,973 and covered 182 square miles. By 1969, the region was showing signs of its growth potential, having expanded significantly to encompass an


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area of more than 750 square miles to include Fort Jackson, the Town of Lexington and the eastern portions of Lake Murray. As a result, the population of the 1969 COATS area had also increased considerably to 320,400; an increase of 63.5%.

The boundaries of the COATS planning area were further expanded in the late 1990s to include the rapidly growing fringe areas. The 1998 COATS Long Range Transportation Plan included a study area of 1,049 square miles with a population of 424,605. By the time the plan was updated for the 2000 Census, the COATS population had increased to 496,625 persons. Due to a wealth of development that has occurred within the Greater Columbia Area since the 2000 Census, the current COATS 2035 LRTP study area has been extended to include an additional 67 square miles for a total of 1,116 square miles. The current boundary now includes the vast majority of Richland and Lexington counties as well as portions of neighboring Kershaw and Calhoun counties.


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Map 3.1: MPO Planning Area 1960- 2000


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Since the 2000 Census, population growth in the southeastern United States has occurred at a rate beyond that seen in other parts of the country, with the Columbia metropolitan area being no exception. Residential growth has occurred at near record rates with a total of 31,367 new residential units permitted for construction between January 2000 and December 2005, in addition to the 220,771 housing units tabulated during the 2000 Census. This represents a 14% increase in the total housing stock in just six years.

The reasons for the Columbia area’s growth can be explained by a number of factors including:

• a favorable year-round climate • a wealth of available land for both residential and commercial

development • lower land and home prices than in other parts of the Southeast • a comparatively low cost of living • a desirable quality of life • lower tax and business costs • good interstate connectivity

• recent diversification of industry in new industrial fields (e.g.,

automobile components, telecommunications, banking, computers and other hi-tech sectors of the economy) and

• University of South Carolina, a major research university

In November 2007, the South Carolina business climate was described as the eighth best location nationwide for small business survival and the Columbia area was named the top expansion and relocation market in the country. These factors have enabled the development boom to endure longer in the Midlands of South Carolina than in most other parts of the United States and continues to make the midlands an attractive retirement and relocation destination.

As a result of increased residential and commercial development, some areas of the Columbia Metropolitan area have witnessed significant changes. Areas that were considered rural as recently as 25 years ago are now amongst the major growth areas within the region. As indicated in Figure 3.1, the outward expansion of population from the central urban core is largely concentrated in the following “hot spot” growth areas: Northeast Richland County, the area around the Town of Lexington, Irmo, Blythewood, and Southeast Columbia. The downtown area of Columbia has also seen significant infill


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development activity in recent years. The following sections provide in depth analysis about the growth characteristics associated with each of these areas.

Figure 3.1: Change in Population Density (Right)

Northeast Richland

The Northeast Richland County area represents the best illustration of this recent growth phenomenon in South Carolina’s Midlands. In 1970, this large, predominantly rural portion of northeastern Richland County had a total population of 4,482 inhabitants and was characterized by large tracts of farmland, with the most notable landmark being Clemson University’s Sandhill Research and Education Center on Clemson Road near US 1. By 2000, the population of this sector had undergone a significant transformation as residential and commercial development spread northeastward along Two Notch Road (US 1) from the area surrounding Columbia Mall. According to 2000 Census figures, the population of northeastern Richland County increased by almost 900% since 1970 to 43,972. This development trend has continued in the years since the last Census, increasing by an estimated 15,147 persons to 59,119. As a result of this increased population, Northeast Richland County has undergone considerable economic changes with the addition of new retail facilities such as The Village at Sandhills, a 300-acre development at the intersection of Clemson and Two Notch Roads. The area has also seen the relocation of a host of retailers and eateries from previous sites in the area around Columbia Mall, Decker Boulevard, and Parklane Road.

Lexington

The second major growth area is around the Town of Lexington, the county seat of Lexington County, ten miles west of Downtown Columbia. Over the course of the past thirty years, the population of Lexington County has more than doubled as new residents relocate from neighboring Richland County and the City of Columbia to take advantage of lower taxes and cheaper land and housing prices.

Between 1970 and 2000, the population of Lexington County increased from 89,012 to 216,014, an increase of 127,002 people. Estimates show


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the population of the county rising to 247,150 by 2005, with the majority of the population residing in and around the Town of Lexington. The Lexington area has become an attractive residential and commercial growth center as the favorable property tax rates and land prices are complimented by the desirable location close to the southern shore of Lake Murray, good schools, and a relatively short commute times into Columbia via a well-connected interstate and highway system (I-20, US 1, US 378, SC 6).

The Lexington submarket has seen the highest total population gain of any other sub-region within the Greater Columbia area. Between 1970 and 2000, the population has grown from 12,297 to 57,139, an increase of 44,842 people. The 2005 population is estimated to be 70,475, the result of 5,000 new housing units permitted for construction since 2000. Irmo Other areas that have seen strong growth trends in the past few decades include the northwestern portion of the region in the Dutch Fork area around the towns of Irmo and Chapin. In 1970, the population of the Irmo/Dutch Fork area was a modest 9,730. The mid-1980s, however, marked the start of an increase in residential development, which peaked in this area between 1984 and 1994 when an average of 707 new residential units per year were permitted for construction. In the years since then, development has tended to shift eastwards and northwards, with significant residential growth occurring in the Dutch Fork area of Richland County and to a slightly lesser extent around the northern shores of Lake Murray to the area south of Chapin.

In recent years, residential development has slowed slightly to an average of 560 new residential units per year as less land becomes available for development. However, the Irmo/Dutch Fork area remains the third major growth sector within the region, with an estimated 2005 population of 67,964; an increase of 8,113 persons since the 2000 Census. In the Chapin area, residential development continues at a moderate pace with between 200 and 300 new residential units permitted for construction each year since 1998. By 2005, the Chapin area is estimated to have a population of 12,373, an increase of 3,044 since 2000.


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Blythewood Growth in the Blythewood area is a direct result of its proximity to the rapidly growing Northeast Richland County area. In 2005, the population of the Blythewood area was estimated to be 18,116, an increase of 5,396 since 2000. In the last four years alone, almost 3,000 residential units have been permitted for construction. The Blythewood area is home to a number of large employers, notably Bose Corporation, Siemens and Belk and headquarters for the South Carolina Departments of Motor Vehicles and Public Safety. The area is continuing to attract new industries as illustrated by the recent announcement of Google’s interest in a site along I-77, construction of a new Wal-Mart in the southern portion of this area at the intersection of Killian Road and I-77, and construction of the area’s first apartment complexes. These should all serve as a catalyst for further development in the area in the coming years.

South Columbia Another area expected to see significant growth is the Garners Ferry Road/I-77 area in southeast Columbia to the south of Fort Jackson. Between 1980 and 2000, the population of this area stagnated, adding just 400 people in this 20-year time period. Since 2000, the population has shown signs of steady growth, increasing by 3,080 in 2005. Recent building permit activity since 2005 has also increased with several hundred new single family housing units proposed for development. Just over 300 apartment units have also been constructed in the past two years with a further 250 currently under construction. The increase in residential development has also had a positive effect on the economy of the Garners Ferry Road/Sumter Highway corridor. Recent renovations to Woodhill Mall have attracted national retailers such as Target, World Market and Pier One as well as a number of smaller, local businesses. The Hopkins community of Lower Richland County has also seen recent development activity, with 202 single family homes permitted in 2006 and a proposal for a 198 acre mixed-use development at Burnside Farms. Recent apartment and condominium projects in the adjacent area along Bluff Road and around Williams-Brice Stadium are also helping to transform South Columbia into a major growth area within the region.


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Downtown Columbia

Despite the continued growth occurring in the outlying suburban areas, Downtown Columbia has also seen a resurgence in residential and commercial development as a result of efforts to bring people back to Main Street and the revitalized Vista areas. A variety of new and proposed residential and mixed-use developments such as The Battery at Arsenal Hill, City Club, Vision, Capitol Places, Canal Side and the former mental health facility on Bull Street will all serve to make Downtown even more attractive for future public and private investment. The University of South Carolina should also continue to serve as a catalyst for growth and development in Downtown Columbia. Future increases in enrollment will continue to supply a stable (albeit seasonal) residential and consumer population. Between 2000 and 2006 full time enrollment has increased by more than 3,600 students per year. Campus renovations such as the new Greek Village and the construction of the new Innovista Research Campus will not only transform the skyline of South Main Street, but will also support the university’s research initiatives, and provide a steady stream of residents, consumers, and employees into the future. In 2000, the number of persons residing in Downtown Columbia was the lowest in more than 30 years, with 4,550 fewer people living within the Central City than were reported in 1970. However, all of the recent and future developments discussed above, are expected to cause the population of the downtown area to rise to just under 20,000 by year 2035, bringing the population back to close to what it was in 1970.

3.2.2 Future Trends

Over the course of the next thirty years the growth and development trends outlined above are expected to continue, with the “hot spots” in the outlying areas of unincorporated Richland and Lexington Counties receiving the largest share of the growth. To assess the impact this growth will have on the regional transportation system, socioeconomic forecasts were developed for the COATS planning area. Base year 2005 estimates and 2035 population projections were prepared utilizing a technical process that consisted of two primary steps. First, a reliable set of county level control totals were derived by reviewing and refining existing forecasts produced by credible sources such as Woods and Poole and the SC Budget and Control Board, Office


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In addition to being used specifically for the development of the LRTP, socioeconomic data projections are routinely used by CMCOG staff and outside agencies as an essential data inventory resource for numerous other planning projects. In the past year alone, these projections have been used in the development of local comprehensive plans, sub-area plans, the COATS Congestion Management Plan, and the “Richland on the Move” countywide transportation study.

of Research and Statistics. These control totals were then disaggregated to the Census Tract and Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)1 levels of geography by analyzing growth and development trends from the following data sources:

• historical and current building permit locations • change in persons per household 2000-2005 • mobile home locations • group housing locations • residential demolitions • location of existing and planned water and sewer infrastructure • existing, committed, and planned transportation improvements • land available for development

The resulting 2005 base year estimates and 2035 horizon year forecasts were reviewed by the planning staff of each of the major jurisdictions to ensure accuracy and compatibility with local planning efforts.2

Table 3.1: Population Projection Summary for the COATS Area

2005 2035 % Change Total Population 576,101 845,664 46.79%

Occupied Housing Units 219,822 329,129 49.70%

1 TAZs represent an intermediate level of geography between census blocks and census tracts and are usually defined by a homogoneous area of trip generating activity bounded by major roadways. This is the most common level of geography used in socioeconomic forecasting for transportation planning. 2 For a more information on the methodology used for developing the 2005 and 2035 socioeconomic data, contact CMCOG Department of Planning and Research.


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Figure 3.2: 2035 Growth Trends (X Pattern)

As illustrated in Table 3.1, the results of the population projections indicate a 46.79% change in total population between 2005 and 2035. This is represented by a 109,307 increase in housing units and a 269,563 increase in population over the thirty year period. The overall geographic distribution of this growth follows the historic trends depicted by the same series of “hot spot” growth areas discussed earlier in this chapter. As illustrated in Figure 3.2, the overall trend can be characterized as an “X” pattern that runs outward from downtown Columbia, extending into the unincorporated sections of Richland and Lexington Counties with some spill over into Kershaw County along US 1 and Interstate 20. This growth scenario also anticipates continued infill development in the downtown Columbia urban core.

These trends are also illustrated in Maps 3.2 – 3.4, which show 2005 population density, 2035 population density, and the change in population density between the 30 years.

Downtown Columbia, including the older neighborhoods north and east of the central business district (CBD) is expected to add approximately 11,000 people by 2035. Northeast Richland County, including Blythewood and the Elgin area of Kershaw County is expected to add nearly 57,000 people. The Chapin/Irmo (i.e., Dutch Fork) area is projected to grow by 42,827 and Southeast Columbia by 11,404. The area north and south of the town of Lexington is expected to experience the most growth, adding approximately 75,464 people over the next thirty years. Aside from infill development occurring in some older areas, these growth trends are expected to be characterized by lower density single family residential development (<2.5 persons per acre).


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Map 3.2: 2005 Population Density


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Map 3.3: 2035 Population Density


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Map 3.4: Change in Population Density 2005-2035


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In addition to population projections, socioeconomic forecasts for transportation planning also include school enrollment figures because of their trip generation and travel behavior characteristics (i.e. increasing local traffic and congestion levels).3 CMCOG staff developed 2005 school enrollment estimates and 2035 forecasts by consulting a variety of sources including: local school districts, SC Department of Education, SC Department of Social Services, SC Commission of Higher Education, local university and technical college administrators, and local government planning staff. To derive the 2035 enrollment forecasts, new schools were sited based on projected population growth and local knowledge of land use and development trends. Over the thirty year period, total school enrollment is expected to increase by 42% from 177,020 to 251,439 students. As indicated in Table 3.2, the majority of this growth is in the K-12 grade range, as full and part time university enrollment is expected to grow at a comparatively slower rate of approximately 11%. Because K-12 school enrollment follows population growth, the geographic distribution of new schools follows the same “X” growth pattern extending outward from downtown Columbia into the “hot spots” of unincorporated Richland and Lexington counties.

Table 3.2: School Enrollment 2000-2035 2005 2035 % Change

K-12 Enrollment 126,857 195,725 54.29%

FT University Enrollment 32,117 35,589 10.81%

PT University Enrollment 18,046 20,125 11.52%

In summary, the overall geographic pattern of growth and development in the Columbia area has followed the same trajectory since the first COATS Long Range Transportation Plan was completed in the late 1960s. Population growth rates have been highest on the fringes of downtown Columbia, consistently pushing the Columbia Metropolitan Area (and the COATS study area boundary) outwards with each decennial census. These trends are expected to continue over the next thirty years despite signs that higher density infill development is becoming more commonplace.

3 A new 50,000 sq ft school will add an average of 620 additional daily trips to the local road network, while a new 100,000 sq ft school will add close to 1200 additional daily trips.


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3.3 Economic Development

The regional transportation system is in many ways the lifeblood of the economy. Workers, industries, and other stakeholders in the business community depend on adequate circulation and regional connectivity for their livelihoods. Analysis of existing and future employment trends helps to assess the level of economic activity supported by the transportation network, and serves as an indicator of the different types, intensities and geographic distributions of economic trip generators. The following section provides an overview of existing employment conditions, future employment growth trends, and recommended objectives and strategies for improving regional economic development through transportation planning.

3.3.1 Existing Trends

Employment growth in the Columbia Metropolitan Area has historically been centered on state government, higher education, and health care. Each of these industries continues to bring new employment opportunities to local residents and encourage others to move into the Central Midlands region from throughout the state and from other states throughout the nation. State government is the single largest employer within the COATS area with 24,364 employees representing over 80 different agencies. Richland County hosts the largest share of state employees with approximately 93% traveling to work within its boundaries. Lexington County has the next largest share with 5.5%, while Kershaw and Calhoun counties have a little over 1% combined. Though state government greatly expanded since 1970, local governments, schools districts, colleges, Fort Jackson, McEntire Joint Air National Guard Station, and federal agencies are also important employers in the region. Apart from government, the health care and insurance industries are the largest employers and are continuing to expand in order to offer more comprehensive services to meet the needs of the growing population. Health Care providers such as Palmetto Health Alliance, Lexington Medical Center and a number of local hospitals provide over 18,000 jobs in the Central Midlands Region. Insurance companies such as Blue Cross and Blue Shield and Colonial

According to the 2000 Census, 274,188 (68.6%) of people in the COATS region (age 16 and over) were a part of the labor force. Of these people, 91.9% were employed, 5.2% were unemployed, and 3.7% were in the Armed Services. Between 1990 and 2000, the labor force increased by 36,882 workers and is estimated to have increased by another 42,123 workers in 2007. Approximately 5.7% of the current work force is estimated to be unemployed, an increase of almost 2% since 1990.


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Life employ more than 11,000 people. As with many other areas in the Southeast, the manufacturing industry is still a major source of employment for area residents. While textiles continue to decline, other types of manufacturers, such as high tech, chemical, rubber and paper are on the rise. Large companies such as Michelin, Westinghouse, Bose Corporation, and Carolina Eastman together employ over 5,000 workers. As illustrated in Figure 3.3, other large regional employers include banks, construction companies, distribution centers, large retailers (Wal-Mart alone employs over 4,000 workers), telecommunications companies and utility providers.

Figure 3.3: 2005 Major Employers (650-plus Employees)

When looking at total employment across the region, the service sector provides the largest share of jobs with 38.38%. This major category of employment includes many of the large employers listed above such as some state and local government agencies, healthcare providers, and telecommunications companies. This category also includes smaller, local employers, such as child care facilities, civic and social organizations, and local school districts. Office employment, such as insurance, banking and finance, has the second largest share of total employment with 20.13%. Industrial employment represents 19.51% of all jobs in the region. These jobs include companies such as those already mentioned and consist of various types of manufacturing, large scale


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construction and contracting, freight transportation services, and food and extractive resource processing. Retail and highway retail employment make up approximately 22% of total employment. These employers range from smaller business district retail establishments to larger supermarket chains and stores with high auto accessibility located along major thoroughfares. Table 3.3 shows the actual number of employees for each of these major industry types.

Table 3.3: Employment by Industry Type 2005 2005 % of Total Total 304,974 Industrial 59,499 19.51% Retail 42,937 14.08% Highway Retail 24,102 7.90% Office 61,388 20.13% Service 117,048 38.38%

As illustrated in Map 3.5, the spatial distribution of the categories discussed above follow typical metropolitan area employment patterns. Major office and service employment centers are concentrated close to downtown Columbia within the interstate beltway system. The larger industrial employers are scattered throughout the region, with the majority located outside of the beltway, away from residential development, and in areas with good highway accessibility. Most of the smaller office, service, highway retail and retail employers are located along main arterials, radiating outwards from downtown and following major residential growth trends.


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Map 3.5: Employment by Industry 2005

Overall, Downtown Columbia still retains the largest share of total employment with over 88,000 jobs (approximately 30%). The West Columbia and Cayce area has the next largest share providing over


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35,000 jobs or 11.5%. The Bush River Road and Dentsville areas, along with all of the major growth centers described earlier in this chapter, provide an average of 28,400 jobs, which represents approximately 9.3% of total employment for the region.

3.3.2 Future Trends

Thirty year employment projections were developed by CMCOG staff to correspond with the population and school enrollment forecasts. The development and review of employment projections is essential to understanding future travel behavior and trip generation characteristics. The 2035 projections were generated for each of the major employment categories used in the 2005 base year analysis (i.e., Industrial, Retail, Highway Retail, Office, and Service). County control totals were developed for 2035 by applying the 2005 total employment to population ratio, to the 2035 population totals. The total employment numbers were then broken into the different categories based on historical trend analysis for each county. County control totals for each category were then disaggregated to the Census Tract and TAZ levels of geography based on analysis of growth trends, developable land, projected utility and road infrastructure improvements, local comprehensive planning goals, and generalized future land use maps. The 2035 employment projections anticipate the percentage shares of total employment for each of the major categories to reflect 2005 distributions. While service and office employment shares decline slightly, industrial, retail and highway retail shares are expected to increase by 0.50%, 0.66% and 0.49% respectively. Despite the minimal share increases between the 30 years, each category is expected to increase significantly, yielding an additional 141,847 employees across the region, an increase of 46.51%. Service sector employment is expected to increase the most by adding an additional 51,631 jobs. Retail and highway retail are expected to add an additional 36,300 jobs, while industrial and office jobs are expected to increase by 30,099 and 23,809 respectively. These figures are summarized in Table 3.4 and Figure 3.4.


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Table 3.4: Change in Employment 2005-2035 2005 % of

Total 2035 % of Total % Change

Total 304,974 446,821 46.51% Industrial 59,499 19.51% 89,598 20.05% 50.59% Retail 42,937 14.08% 65,846 14.74% 53.35% Highway Retail 24,102 7.90% 37,501 8.39% 55.59%

Office 61,388 20.13% 85,197 19.07% 38.78% Service 117,048 38.38% 168,679 37.75% 44.11%

Figure 3.4: Change in Employment 2005-2035

As indicated on Map 3.6, the spatial distribution of future employment is expected to remain relatively constant over the thirty year period with downtown Columbia and adjacent areas inside the beltway still holding the largest share of jobs. However, as the Columbia metropolitan area continues to expand outwards away from downtown along major transportation thoroughfares, some of the residential


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growth areas will take on more importance as local and regional employment centers. Many companies will have incentive to leave downtown for outlying areas where land is more abundant and less expensive.4

In 2035, downtown Columbia is expected to add 11,000 jobs, while the areas around the Town of Lexington, Northeast Richland/Blythewood, West Columbia, and Irmo/Chapin, are expected to add an average of 23,500 jobs each. The Lexington area is expected to see the largest increase in share of total employment (an increase of approximately 4%), while the Bush River Road, Dentsville, and Downtown areas will decrease their shares by 1%, 2%, and 6.75% respectively.

In summary, existing and future employment trends are closely tied with population growth and are dependent on the regional transportation system. The Columbia metropolitan is expected to see a significant increase in jobs over the next thirty years. While Downtown Columbia and the inner beltway will continue to host the largest share of jobs, many of the new job opportunities will be created in the emerging employment centers that are developing along major transportation corridors, in proximity to the “hot spot” residential growth areas on the fringes of the ever expanding urbanized area.

4 For example, SCANA Corporation, one of Columbia’s largest employers, announced in 2007 that they intend to move over 1,000 employees from their downtown location to a new 450,000 square foot campus on a large undeveloped tract near the I-77/12th St interchange in the City of Cayce.


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Map 3.6: 2035 Employment Density


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3.4 Social Environment The social environment section of this chapter discusses environmental justice issues and their relationship to long range transportation planning process. The section starts by discussing the environmental justice responsibilities of transportation planning agencies and then provides an analysis of the location and distribution of low income and minority populations. The section concludes with a list of objectives and strategies that supports and advances CMCOG’s commitment to improving mobility and accessibility for every citizen and protecting and enhancing the natural and social environment.

3.4.1 Environmental Justice

Environmental justice aims to ensure the equitable distribution of both the benefits and adverse impacts of public policy decisions such as investments in transportation infrastructure. Environmental Justice concerns are upheld first and foremost, by the 1964 Civil Rights act which provides legal protection against discriminatory practices by any agency or program receiving federal financial assistance. In 1994 all federal agencies were mandated by Executive Order 12898 to incorporate environmental justice concerns into their programs, policies and activities. In 1997 the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) issued its own mandate which further defined the role of transportation planning agencies in mitigating the adverse impacts of transportation decisions on low income and minority populations. The three fundamental principles of environmental justice as defined by USDOT are as follows:

• To avoid, minimize, or mitigate disproportionately high and

adverse human health or environmental effects, including social and economic effects, on minority populations and low-income populations.

• To ensure the full and fair participation by all potentially affected communities in the transportation decision-making process.

• To prevent the denial of, reduction in, or significant delay in

the receipt of benefits by minority and low-income populations.

“No person in the United States shall, on the ground of race, color, or national origin be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving federal financial assistance.”

- Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964


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It is the responsibility of the USDOT, State Departments of Transportation, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, and Local Governments to integrate these principles into all aspects of the transportation planning process. To ensure non-discrimination in accordance with these principles CMCOG has adopted a Title VI Plan which outlines the Title VI policy of the agency and establishes goals and monitoring procedures for all transportation planning activities. 5 The USDOT has also provided additional guidance on how MPOs can meet their responsibilities to uphold Title VI and environmental justice legislative requirements. 6 This guidance defines the following three primary responsibilities of the MPO:

• To enhance analytical capabilities to accurately assess the

compliance of planning programs with Title VI requirements

• To identify residential, employment, and transportation patterns of low income and minority populations to ensure the equitable distribution of the benefits and burdens of transportation investments

• To develop and maintain an inclusionary public involvement

process that removes barriers to participation by low income and minority populations

CMCOG will strive to meet each of these responsibilities as they pertain to the development, adoption, and implementation of the region’s Long Range Transportation Plan.

3.4.2 Social Equity Analysis

To determine the location and concentrations of low income and minority populations CMCOG used a methodology described by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission in a USDOT case study for environmental justice analysis.7 The methodology involved a three

5 For more information, see the CMCOG Title VI Plan for Compliance with the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Adopted December 9, 2004. 6 Overview of Transportation and Environmental Justice. United States Department of Transportation. Publication No. FHWA-EP-00-013. 7 MPO Environmental Justice Analysis, Columbus, Ohio: Use of Data Sources, Analytical Techniques, and Public Involvement. Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation. Available Online: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/ej2.htm. This methodology has also been used by a number of


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step process that included (1) determining the regional percentages of low income and minority populations (2) using the regional percentages as thresholds for determining whether or not a particular Census Block Group is considered to be predominantly low income or minority (3) mapping these thresholds (individually and together) to provide a visual representation of the spatial distribution of low income and minority populations.

The criteria used to identify and map low income and minority populations included the following three 2000 Census variables:

• Non-white population • Hispanic population • Families below the Poverty Line

The totals and percentages of these variables for the COATS region and for the COATS portions of Richland, Lexington, Kershaw and Calhoun counties are summarized in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5: Environmental Justice Profile of the COATS Region

COATS Region

Richland COATS

Lexington COATS

Kershaw COATS

Calhoun COATS

Population 518,183 302,133 199,987 13,975 2,108

Minority Population 180,323 147,957 29,366 2,584 416

% Minority Population 34.80% 48.97% 14.68% 18.49% 19.73%

Hispanic Population 11,327 7,147 3,864 301 15

% Hispanic Population 2.19% 2.37% 1.93% 2.15% 0.71% Families 134,173 73,668 55,896 3,981 628

Families Below Poverty Line 10,753 7,097 3,367 254 35

% Families Below Poverty Line 8.01% 9.63% 6.02% 6.38% 5.57%

Note: These totals do not include Fort Jackson. Military populations are not considered to be exposed to the same level of risk for environmental justice concerns as civilian populations and were therefore subtracted from the totals for each variable listed above.

other MPOs, in developing their Long Range Transportation and Environmental Justice/Title VI plans. Examples include Richmond, VA and Wilmington, Delaware.


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According to these regional totals, minority populations make up 34.8% of the total population of the COATS region with the largest share (approximately 82%) residing in Richland County. The Hispanic population represents 2.19% of the total for the COATS area while 8% of all families have incomes that are below the federal poverty thresholds. These regional percentages represent the baseline against which to compare each individual block group. Maps 3.7 – 3.9 illustrate the areas of the region where percent minority and Hispanic populations and families below the poverty line exceed the regional percentage thresholds defined above. The maps illustrate that the block groups with the highest concentrations of minority residents exceeding the regional average are located in downtown Columbia, North Columbia, Southeast Columbia, and portions of Lower Richland County. Block Groups with Hispanic populations exceeding the regional average are randomly distributed throughout the region representing both urban areas (downtown Columbia and West Columbia), and the more rural, unincorporated portions of western Lexington and northeast Richland counties. Concentrations of families below the poverty line are evenly distributed between urban and rural areas in both Richland and Lexington counties. Many of the residential block groups immediately surrounding downtown Columbia have double or more than double the regional average. Other areas with above average concentrations are parts of Lower Richland County and Lower Lexington County between the towns of Gaston, Pelion and South Congaree.

In addition to looking at the distribution of these populations by themselves, it is also helpful to create a composite map that depicts the highest concentrations of all three variables combined. To accomplish this task each block group was given a score of 0, 1, or 2 for each variable depending on whether or not it was above or below the regional threshold. If it was below, it received a 0, if it was between the regional threshold and double the regional threshold it received a 1 and if it was more than double the regional threshold it received a 2. The scores were then added together to give each block group a composite score which illustrates on a map, the distribution of those block groups with above average concentrations of low income and minority populations. Map 3.10 depicts these areas which have the potential to be more vulnerable to environmental justice issues.


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Map 3.7: Percent Minority Population (2000)


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Map 3.8: Percent Hispanic Population (2000)


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Map 3.9: Families Below the Poverty Line (2000)


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Map 3.10: Environmental Justice Areas (2000)


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Map 3.10 represents a useful benchmark for pro-actively assessing the probability of specific transportation improvement projects being in non-compliance with environmental justice and Title VI legislation. While every project will be intensely scrutinized once it is programmed for implementation (regardless of location), this overview provides a good first step in vetting projects that might not adequately serve low income and minority populations or have the potential to inequitably burden them with the adverse impacts of construction and operation. The results of the social equity analysis tell us that approximately 46% of the COATS population resides in areas with above average concentrations of low income and minority populations, while 15% live in areas with extremely high concentrations. These high percentages and their relatively uneven distribution across the region, tell us that environmental justice and Title VI considerations need to be a relevant and essential component of the transportation planning process for the COATS MPO. To ensure this need is met, view the list of recommended objectives and strategies located at the end of this chapter. They are intended to reflect the USDOT core environmental justice principles and MPO responsibilities for being in compliance with Title VI and environmental justice legislation.

3.5 Objectives & Strategies 1. Encourage regional collaboration and coordination amongst local

jurisdictions in planning for future growth and development in the region.

• Continue to refine the role of the CMCOG Regional Planning and

Development Committee as a means for bringing together stakeholders and local representatives to discuss issues related to current and future development trends.

• Continue to work with local governments to develop and refine regional population projections to ensure multi-jurisdictional coordination and communication about current and future development trends.

• Encourage the regional and local implementation of the goals, objectives, and strategies presented in the Environmental Mitigation and Quality of Life Improvement chapters of this document.

2. Promote economic vitality by investing in infrastructure

improvements that increase the potential for job creation and


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retention, improve linkages between housing and employment opportunities, and support regional economic development strategies.

• Conduct a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats

(SWOT) analysis of existing and potential transportation linkages between major employment and residential centers

• Encourage expanded transit service to meet employment needs for commuter communities and areas served by the existing fixed route system

• Encourage the development of affordable housing opportunities in proximity to existing and future transit service areas and employment centers

• Encourage coordination between local governments, the department of commerce, and the MPO to implement projects identified in the regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS)

• Encourage the regional and local implementation of goals, objectives, and strategies identified in the Motor Freight chapter of this document.

3. Ensure that all citizens and communities within the Columbia

Metropolitan Area are equitably served by the regions transportation system.

• Encourage the implementation of the objectives and strategies

outlined in the Transit Chapter of this document as they relate to supporting the further development, maintenance, and long term financial viability of a regional transit system in the Columbia Area.

4. Ensure that all programs, policies, and activities do not have

disproportionately adverse effects on minority and low income populations and that all potentially affected communities are represented in the transportation decision-making process.

• Encourage the implementation of the objectives and strategies

outlined in the CMCOG Public Participation Plan as they relate to removing barriers to participation by low income and minority populations.

• Establish a framework for measuring the performance and success of strategies designed to educate and incorporate low income and minority populations into the transportation decision making process.


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• Continue to work with federal, state, and local government agencies to preserve culturally diverse areas of the region and to ensure they are not adversely impacted by transportation improvements.

• Continue to improve data collection efforts and analysis techniques that assess the needs of and potential impacts on socially vulnerable populations.

chapter 3 - socioeconomic analysiscentralmidlands.org/pdf/2035lrtp/chapter3.pdf · map 3.1: mpo...

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