chapter 11 where do we go from here?. yogi berra predictions are very difficult, especially when...

Chapter 11

Where Do We GoFrom Here?

Yogi Berra

Predictions are very difficult, especially when they are

about the future.

Copyright © 2003, Addison-Wesley

Possible Futures and Feasibility analysis. Identify possible future scenarios Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis

Technical feasibility Does the necessary technology exist? Is the necessary technology likely to exist in time?

Economic feasibility Does the outcome promise a reasonable return?

Political feasibility Can the task be done in the context of the existing or expected social and political environment?

Scenario not feasible if any answer is no


Wild Cards

Unanticipated technological changes

Make future scenarios irrelevant Example: The Babel fish


Figure 11.2 Tiered Internet services.

Tier Cost Supported by Speed guarantee

Priority guarantee

Security/ privacy

Content Applications

Basic Free Advertising Sponsors

Slow Low None Limited Unedited

E-mail Surfing

1 $ Advertising (Opt-in) Fees

Medium Medium Web Broad Monitored Quality

Research B2C

2 $$ Fees High High VPN Business Business Intra-bus.

3 $$$ Fees Private

Very fast

Very high

VPN Corporate Corporate B2B

Premium $$$$ NOYB Max. Max. Max. NOYB NOYB

Is it likely that such a system will become the norm?


Possible Futures – 2020

Tiered services will fade away Tiered services will be successful

but no obvious standard will emerge Tiered services will become the new

standard

Focus on the third possible future


Technical Feasibility

There is no technical reason why tiered services cannot emerge by 2020

Tiered Internet services are technically feasible


Economic Feasibility

Model exists Television

Broadcast Basic cable Premium cable Pay-per-view

Tiered services are economically feasible


Political Feasibility

Tiered services will change the Internet Preferential treatment for some The “information should be free” credo

Winners Service providers – fees Higher-tier users – quality and speed

Losers Serious, independent Web surfers Online advertisers The information have-nots


Are Tiered Services Feasible?

Technically and economically feasible

Some politically powerful foes Large firms will like tiered services It’s going to happen!


E-Books: Possible Futures – 2020

E-books will be a niche product Roughly 10% of revenues

E-books will carve out significant niche Roughly 20-25% of revenues

E-books will become dominant At least 50% of revenues

Focus on the third possible future


Technical Feasibility – Third Scenario

Successful e-books already exist Reference books on CD-ROM Spelling dictionary and thesaurus

Most existing books are created digitally

Must compete with paperbacks We lack a convenient e-book reader Prototypes do exist

Technically feasible by 2020


Figure 11.3 Books are created digitally.


Figure 11.4 An e-book reader.



Critical mass difficult to predict Who moves first? Lower cost to publishers New revenue for hardware makers

Customer needs incentive to buy Inexpensive reader – under $100 Supply of e-books Price savings on e-books



Winners Publishers who move quickly Authors – longer time in print Supplier of e-book reader

Losers Publishers who fail to adapt Existing distribution chain


Figure 11.5 Video game platforms are the state of the art.

Wild card Near future

source of acceptable e-book reader

Critical mass of gamers exists

May change nature of books


Intellectual Property Rights

A political and economic wild card Posting a document on the Web effectively

places it in the public domain We do not currently know how to protect

intellectual property rights online Those rights are valuable Publishers and authors will not post

Counter: The “information should be free” credo


Figure 11.6 The free network project.

The free network project is a leader in the “information should be free” movement.


The Future of E-Books

Business will eventually adopt the most efficient distribution channel Digital material will be distributed digitally If current publishers don’t, someone else

will E-books will be dominant by 2020

It might take a little longer Key is when critical mass emerges

It’s going to happen!


Web Services

Intermediary-supplied e-utilities Allow incompatible applications to

interact Similar to ASP services Software building blocks

Examples Currency conversion Word to PDF Airline to car rental links


Figure 11.7 Think of a Web service as a remote subroutine.

Currencyconversion

Web service

Acme'saccounts payableWeb application

Accountspayabledatabase

Europeansupplier's

billingWeb application

Invoice

E

$Record


Web Services: Possible Futures – 2020

Web services are mostly hype They will fade away Custom solution better option

Web services will be successful but no dominant standard will emerge Trading partners with incompatible services

Web services will be successful and a dominant standard will emerge Best outcome for supply chain integration


Technical Feasibility

Web services are technically feasible Intermediary XML applications

common Question: Will a standard emerge?

Islands, continents, planets of automation

Historically, a few firms will dominate



Web services look promising CIO article – $15.5 billion by 2005

Expect fierce competition Risk – vaporware



Winners if a single standard emerges The vendor who owns the standard

Microsoft .NET Sun Microsystems J2EE IBM Tivoli software portfolio

Risk – monopoly, collusion Cautions and concerns

Excessive hype Publicly available services diminish

competitive advantage


The Future of Web Services

Consider the firms pushing Web services IBM, Microsoft, Sun Their track records are good They have deep pockets

Accelerating pace of change Web services can cut response time Web services can cut development cost

Multiple “standards” most likely outcome Incompatibilities with trading partners will be

a problem in 2020


Biometrics Authentication

Today’s authentication tools are flawed Passwords are easily lost or forgotten Badges and tokens can be faked

Biometrics is attractive Traits cannot be lost or stolen Tests are objective


Biometrics: Possible Futures – 2020

Biometrics used primarily for local physical access control

Biometrics used for remote access control from secure physical location

Biometrics becomes the new standard for both local and remote authentication


Evaluating Biometrics

Digitization Computer works with binary data

Digitized points called minutiae Pattern of bits not really a fingerprint Effectively, fingerprint long password

Testing errors Compare sets of minutiae score Compare score to threshold value Score > threshold pass


Figure 11.8 Biometrics testing generates false negatives and false positives.

False positive – approving an imposter False negative – rejecting authorized subject Reduce one, increase the other

Imposters ? Authorizedpersonnel

A B


Biometrics Criteria

Fingerprints Accurate, easy to administer, inexpensive Hand geometry less effective

Retinal scans and iris scans Affected by operator skill; expensive

DNA – very expensive Facial recognition, voice dynamics, and

signature recognition Not sufficiently accurate

Fingerprints are the current choice


Some Concerns

Precision drops with volume Remote authentication

No control over source Digitized biometric is a large password

Can be faked or hacked Excessive faith in biometrics

Once you pass a biometrics test, no one is likely to question your credentials


The Future of Biometrics

New remote authentication standard Probably not Risk of damage resulting from a false

positive is too high Remote authentication from

secure site The most likely outcome by 2020


E-Commerce and Your Future

Important to consider Ripple effects Unintended side effects

Focus on your future perspective


Technology

Wireless communications Becoming ubiquitous Calling areas expanding Trend toward fixed monthly fee

Short-range wireless also exploding Bluetooth Wi-Fi

Cautions Exposure to radiation? Being “always on”


Business

Value chain/supply chain integration Limit – frictionless e-commerce Will lead to intense competition Could lead to consolidation

Physical security improvements Disperse potential targets Smaller offices in smaller towns Telecommuting Parallel to Interstate highway system

Real-time employee monitoring


Education

Pace of change accelerating Need for continuous retraining Commencement marks a beginning

Education infrastructure inconvenient New educational models emerging

Evening, weekend, on site Internet based

New models will be source of growth Quality a concern – accreditation Risk – credentialing


Figure 11.9 The total education and training pie.

Online

Traditional

Today 2020

Online

Traditional


Personal Strategies

The future evolves from the present Solid foundation is the key Learn how to learn!

Identify most likely future and take steps to prepare yourself for it

Focus on your preferred future and work to help it come true

The future belongs to those who prepare.

chapter 11 where do we go from here?. yogi berra predictions are very difficult, especially when...

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