A strategy for the Twenty-First Century

Changing Worlds – David W. P. Elliott

Presented by Hang Nguyen

Background

1990s: proactive integration into the global and

regional economy

The changing Vietnamese evaluation of the

nature of the international system

Connection between Vietnam’s commitment to

deep integration

Diplomacy and national security

What kind of world order?

End of Cold War: uncertainty of world order (unipolar or

multipolar?)

Crisis of the socialist regimes: Soviet Union, Eastern

Europe

Movement for national independence: improving

people’s lives, democracy of working class in capitalist

countries

Great powers – Big countries

Superpower – Global power – Regional power

America’s role: ‘be at the center of every vital global

network’

What kind of world order?

Perspectives:

The world was still fundamentally multipolar

Relationship between the great powers

Approach:

Accepting ‘rules of the game’

Accepting complicated and sensitive new issues

Soft borders, information borders, cyber space…

Transformation of ‘designated targets’ to ‘partners’

No relationship is pure cooperation or conflict

Beyond traditional term ‘enemy-alliance’

Vietnam’s position in the world

Importance of finding an international identity

Ultimate isolation of Vietnam by 1980s

Aid from China stopped

Assistance from Soviet and EE dried up

look beyond ‘traditional friends’

Joined ASEAN (1995), AFTA and ASEM (1996), APEC

(1998), WTO (2006)

Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status by

U.S.

Nonpermanent member (Asian) of the UN Security

Council (2008-9)

Comprehensive Security

Collapse of Soviet Union & rise to unchallenged

supremacy by U.S.

China (socialist state) also accepted the idea.

Basic point: aims at preserving stability by emphasizing

socioeconomic development (economic forefront)

Downgrades the military component of national security

Defines the threats as largely stemming from failure to

develop

The defense of the regime from internal challenge has

become as important as defending the country from

external threats

Security and Economic Development

Increasing dominance of the ‘fear of falling behind’ as a

greater threat then ‘peaceful evolution’

The stress on economic strategy stands in contrast to

the relatively underdeveloped conceptualizing of military

security issues

Vietnam needs a ‘modernized military’, which requires

both financial resources and a sophisticated

technological base, which can be improved only be

economic growth.

Economic intelligence became an issue of cooperation

Third foundation of power (besides military and

economic strength): intellectual and brain power.

Role of ‘Big countries’ and ‘Great

powers’

Role of big powers is important & sometimes decisive,

but role of small and middle-sized countries continues to

increase in deciding the fate of the world

‘golden opportunity’ for capitalist countries to redraw the

political map

‘One superpower – many great powers’ Vietnam

should focus on having good relations with all the great

powers

Vietnam has shown its proactivity and responsiveness in

the direction of a balance, and strives to achieve the

maximum benefit for Vietnam’s socioeconomic

development

Role of ‘Big countries’ and ‘Great

powers’

Relationship with United States:

Military dialogue

Normalization

U.S.’s alliances in Asia

Relationship with China:

‘friendly neighbors, comprehensive cooperation, long-

term stabilization, looking toward the future’

‘weapon of the weak’

‘solidarity, deference, balancing and enmeshment’

‘South China Sea’ instability

Vietnam and its neighbors

Two levels of regional concerns

China, Laos and Cambodia (invasion and occupation)

Southeast Asian region

ASEAN has lost cohesion and international influence

With Laos, Cambodia: “traditional friendship” (not with

China)

Vietnam is the second biggest investor in Laos

Military force and traditional security

First defense white paper 1998: the military and public

security forces are considered to be ‘the core of the

regime’

Political officer system was abandoned in 1982,

replaced by a system of “one person in command”.

Second defense white paper 2004: military force would

be the last option for Vietnam

Tenth Party Congress 2006: stress on nonmilitary

components of security and national defense.

Military as institution plays a minor role in contributing to

either the theoretical or policy dimensions of

“comprehensive security”.

Feasible Strategy?

Vietnamese adoption of the concept of comprehensive

security

The paramount goal of preserving regional and global

stability to facilitate economic development.

Territorial integrity: top priority on its relationship with its

neighbors

Achieve predominant influence in Laos and Cambodia

Neutralizing China’s overwhelming size and power

The politburo: commitment to reform and deep

integration, or conservative resistance to any change

that would rick the power and position of the current

elite?