changing worlds - the year of living dangerously

12
The year of living dangerously Changing Worlds David W. P. Elliott

Upload: zelda-gin

Post on 16-Jul-2015

22 views

Category:

Government & Nonprofit


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

The year of living dangerously

Changing Worlds – David W. P. Elliott

Background

Internal economic crisis in the 1980s

Concurrent intensification of external problem

Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia

Relations with China, and members of ASEAN

Embargo by U.S.

Soviet Union’s disintegration

New conception of national security

Domestic Doi Moi reforms must continue

Reassessment of Old Policies and

Doctrines

The turmoil in the communist world prompted

many long-time revolutionaries to reassess their

understanding of the ideology

Marxism came to Vietnam through the

interpretation of Stalin and Mao Zhedong.

It was simplified to a great extent. Yet those

principles were not interpreted precisely correctly.

The nationalist halo still protected the party, but

the leadership was increasingly forced to draw

on this past legacy of accumulated credit, rather

than renew their prestige with positive current

accomplishment.

Changing World View

Changes in the Soviet Union had a major impact

on Vietnam’s reassessment of its foreign policy.

Resolution 32 (1986): the external mission of

Vietnam is to . . . proactively create a condition of

stability for economic construction.

Resolution 13 (1988): the diplomatic mission was

to serve political stabilization, and that first priority

would be given to economic development. the

landmark document that previewed Vietnam post

Cold-War foreign policy and embodied Vietnam’s

final decision to withdraw from Cambodia (1991)

New Conception of Security

Vietnam’s withdrawal from Cambodia was

decided in 1988, and implemented in 1989.

(Soviet decision to pull out of Afghanistan, China

and Soviet both agreed to suspend military

support for Cambodia in 1990).

The armed forces would need to sustained at a

level “just enough” to assure Vietnam’s defense.

“Weakness in the economy and defense and

political instability are great dangers to the

independence and security of the country”.

economic factor in international relations had

become the key to national security.

Leadership Uncertainty in the Face of

Crisis

In the past, the party used to make decisions on

everything.

Now, the party’s policy merely set the guidelines.

The rest is left to the National Assembly the

biggest crisis in the socialist camp since 1917

Trends of ‘adoring capitalism’, ‘suspecting

socialism’ and ‘denying the revolutionary fruits’

“beat back the viewpoints attempting to lower the

prestige of socialism and refute Marxism and

Leninism”, and “democracy must be accompanied

by discipline and obedience to law”.

Pressure for Change

Talk of “Democracy”

Underline the importance of greater

responsiveness and accountability to economic

and social problems

Not to undermine the control of the party

Growing frustration at the slow pace of change

Criticism was directed again Nguyen Van Linh

Inflation was reduced from 400% (1986-88) to

30% (1989)

Vietnam became a net exporter of rice for the

first time

A fork in the road

Occupation of Cambodia

Jobs and Western investment

were blocked

Economic consequences of a

draining and costly war

Vietnam had not derived clear

security benefits from the

occupation of Cambodia.

troops withdrawal from

Cambodia.

“Old Thinking” about the Two-World

International System

December 1988: Mikhail Gorbachev’s

speech:

Declared an end to the two-worlds

conception of international politics

Common civilization and common

humanity was central.

Gorbachev had destroyed the

foundation of Vietnamese’s leaders’

world view.

September 1989: Nguyen Van Linh

laid out uncompromising view of

Marxism as a total ideology and

capitalism as a dead end.

Difficult Foreign Policy Choices

Diplomatic strategy: mixture of old and new

Solidarity with the socialist countries

Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON)

Improve relations with China

Improve relations with India and Third World countries

ASEAN and the United States.

Formulation of Vietnam’s approach:

The idea of comprehensive security,

The importance of diversification of external ties

Engaging in the life of the international system

The primacy of economic development over military spending