changing course? a critical analysis of south korea’s ......changing course? a critical analysis...

Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER H. SHORENSTEIN ASIA‐PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER AT STANFORD

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Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s

Parliamentary Election Results

April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin

WALTERH.SHORENSTEINASIA‐PACIFICRESEARCHCENTERATSTANFORD

Page 2: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

The 19th National Assembly of Korea

300 members

Saenuri (152) Democratic United (127) Unified Progressive (13)

Liberty Forward (5) Independents (3)

Political Group

Page 3: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

Framing of Key Issues

SAENURIPARTY

Page 4: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

KORUS FTA & Jeju Naval Base Issues

SAENURIPARTY

UNIFIEDPROGRESSIVEPARTY

Page 5: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

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Page 6: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

Member Turnover Rate

17th 18th 19th

Total # of seats 299 (100%) 299 (100%) 300 (100%)

First-time members 187 (62.5%) 133 (44.5%) 148 (49.3%)

Member Turnover Rate

223 (72.7%) 161 (53.8%) 184 (62%)

148 (49.3 %) 70 (23.3%)

50 (16.7%)

19 (6.3%)

9 (3.0%)

1 (0.3%)

3 (1.0%)

1st (term) 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th

Page 7: Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s ......Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Parliamentary Election Results April 16, 2012 Gi-Wook Shin WALTER

Ideology and parties Constituency votes % PR block votes %

New Frontier Party Saenuri-dang 9,324,911 43.3% 9,129,226 42.8%

Liberty Forward Party Jayu Seonjin-dang 474,001 2.2% 689,843 3.2%

Conservative 9,798,912 45.5% 9,819,069 46%

Democratic United Party Minju Tonghap-dang

8,156,045 37.9% 7,775,737 36.5%

Unified Progressive Party Tonghap Jinbo-dang

1,291,306 6% 2,198,082 10.3%

Progressive 9,447,351 43.9% 9,973,819 46.8%

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