champaign unit 4 school district - boarddocs · 1/14/2013 · champaign unit 4 school district is...

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Champaign Unit 4 School District

Enrollment ProjectionsJanuary 14, 2013

CHAMPAIGN UNIT 4 SCHOOL DISTRICT - ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS DeJONG-RICHTER 1

Acknowledgements On behalf of DeJONG-RICHTER, we would like to extend our appreciation to Champaign Unit 4 School District for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve Champaign Unit 4 School District for years to come.

DeJONG-RICHTER

Scott Leopold, Associate DirectorAnn Hoffsis, REFP, Planner

Ashley Guzzo, Project Coordinator

4945 Bradenton Ave., Suite BDublin, OH 43017

p. 614-798-8828www.dejongrichter.com

DeJONG-RICHTERCHAMPAIGN UNIT 4 SCHOOL DISTRICT - ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ............................................................................. 3

Enrollment Projection Methodology .................................................. 4

U.S. Census ............................................................................................ 7

General Demographics ..................................................................... 9

Housing Data ...................................................................................... 16

Live Birth Data .................................................................................... 17

Survival Ratios ..................................................................................... 18

Champaign Unit 4 School District Historical Enrollment ................. 19

Champaign Unit 4 School District Projected Enrollment ............... 21

Conclusion .......................................................................................... 23


Executive Summary

The enrollment estimates for the Champaign Unit 4 School District included in this report were developed using a custom designed Windows-based student enrollment projection model. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed by analyzing the following data:

• Live birth data• Historical enrollment• Census data• Building permits

The Champaign Unit 4 School District enrollment has increased by 336 students since the 2003-04 school year. Based on the cohort methodology, a continued increase will likely occur.

As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within Champaign Unit 4 School District. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development.


Enrollment Projection Methodology

Introduction

Tracing the landscape of the country’s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic,and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s, producing children who are recent graduates.

Nationwide, districts are experiencing the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The livebirthrateincreasedforthefirsttimeinseveral years in 1998 and increased again in 2000. However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 13.0 (per 1,000) in 2010.


When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors couldcauseasignificantchangeinprojectedstudentenrollment:

• New school openings• Changes/additions in program offerings• Preschool programs• Changeingradeconfiguration• Interest rates/unemployment shifts• Magnet/Charter/Private school opening or closure• Zoning changes• Unplanned new housing activity• Planned, but not built, housing• School voucher programs

Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves moredifficult. Inanycase, it isessential togatherawidevarietyof information inpreparation forproducing enrollment projections.

Whenlookingaheadataschoolsystem’senrollmentoverthenexttwo,five,ortenyears,itishelpfulto approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover – if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place nowthatcouldaffectstudentenrollmentfigures?

The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is a standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections provided in this report were developed using the cohort survival method.

Cohort Survival Method


A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to “age” a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls ingradeKandmovestofirstgradethefollowingyear,secondgradethenextyear,andsoon.

A “survival ratio” is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten-year period of time, patterns emerge and can be folded into projections by using the survival ratios as a multiplier.

For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year’s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through todeveloptenyearsofprojectionfigures.Becausethereisnotagradecohorttofollowforstudentscomingintokindergarten,livebirthcountsareusedtodevelopasurvivalratio.Babiesbornfiveyearsprevious to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments.

Thecohortsurvivalmethodisusefulinareaswherepopulationisstable[relativelyflat,growingsteadily,ordecliningsteadily],andwheretherehavebeennosignificantfluctuationsinenrollment,births,andhousing patterns from year to year.


U.S. Census

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Champaign, Illinois increased from 67,518 to 81,055 or 20% between the 2000 and the 2010 Census.

In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population increased by 1,522 or 10 percent. The under age 5 population also increased, from 3,374 to 4,389 or 30 percent.

The median age of an Champaign, Illinois resident is 25.7 an increase of 0.4 years since the 2000 Census.

The average household size remained relatively the same from 2.23 to 2.25. The average family size has also remained relatively the same from 2.95 to 2.97.

The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of vacant housing units .

The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data.

Subject 2000 2010 Total population 67,518 81,055 SEX AND AGEMale 34,206 41,256 Female 33,312 39,799 Under 5 years 3,374 4,389 5 to 19 years 15,234 16,756 20 to 64 years 43,232 53,756 65 years and over 5,678 6,154 Median age (years) 25.3 25.7 RACEWhite 73.20% 67.80%Black or African American 15.60% 15.60%Other 11.20% 16.60%

Hispanic or Latino 4.00% 6.30%

DEMOGRAPHICSAverage household size 2.23 2.25Average family size 2.95 2.97 HOUSING OCCUPANCYTotal housing units 28,556 34,434Occupied housing units 27,071 32,207Vacant housing units 1,485 2,227Source: U.S. Census

Champaign, ILU.S. Census Data


According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Savoy, Illinois increased from 4,476 to 7,280 or 63% between the 2000 and the 2010 Census.

In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population increased by 404 or 64 percent. The under age 5 population also increased, from 369 to 569 or 54 percent.

The median age of an Savoy, Illinois resident is 32.57 a decrease of 1.1 years since the 2000 Census.

The average household size remained relatively the same from 2.14 to 2.18. The average family size has also remained relatively the same from 2.86 to 2.96.

The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of vacant housing units .

The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data.

Subject 2000 2010 Total population 4,476 7,280 SEX AND AGEMale 2,051 3,349 Female 2,425 3,931 Under 5 years 369 569 5 to 19 years 628 1,032 20 to 64 years 2,815 4,605 65 years and over 664 1,074 Median age (years) 33.6 32.5 RACEWhite 81.40% 77.40%Black or African American 4.50% 6.80%Other 14.10% 15.80%

Hispanic or Latino 2.10% 2.70%

DEMOGRAPHICSAverage household size 2.14 2.18Average family size 2.86 2.96 HOUSING OCCUPANCYTotal housing units 2,099 3,412Occupied housing units 2,032 3,257Vacant housing units 67 155Source: U.S. Census

Village of Savoy, ILU.S. Census Data


General Demographics

According to the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI] estimates, the total population of the ChampaignUnit4SchoolDistrictisprojectedtoincreaseoverthenextfiveyears.Asillustratedinthetable below, the number of children, ages 0-19, is projected to increase by 548 children.

ESRI estimates that the average family size will remain the same within the Champaign Unit 4 School District boundaries at slightly less than 3 persons per household.

Average household income is projected to increase 15 percent.

Thegraphbelowidentifiestheestimatedandprojected0-19yearoldpopulationinformationbyagegroup. All levels are projected to increase slightly by 2016.

Champaign Unit 4 School District 2011 Population Estimate

2016 Population Projection

Total Population 93,255 97,339 Ages 0-4 5,187 5,479 Ages 5-9 4,577 4,741 Ages 10-14 4,257 4,443 Ages 15-19 10,306 10,212Total Ages 0-19 24,327 24,875Average Household Income $72,475 $83,262Average Family Size 2.86 2.83Source: ESRI BIS


Housing Data

Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table illustrates the number of single-family and multi-family building permits issued in Champaign, Savoy Village, Urbana, Champaign County, and the State of Illinois since 2000 for comparative purposes.

Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family Multi-Family Single-Family Multi-Family2000 204 171 30 24 49 196 594 455 37,817 14,1272001 135 209 30 23 82 59 564 309 39,362 15,4772002 211 480 33 24 176 64 838 642 42,639 18,4322003 187 218 35 24 156 170 838 428 45,823 16,8342004 241 38 35 20 155 90 917 153 46,212 13,5462005 600 559 34 12 104 280 1,153 879 47,709 19,2372006 507 244 40 318 120 203 947 784 37,907 20,8992007 206 593 46 2 83 328 583 948 24,511 18,5092008 97 327 54 0 50 176 333 568 11,844 10,7012009 98 45 79 4 57 102 327 151 7,844 3,0152010 63 266 41 0 28 2 210 268 7,624 4,6942011 54 292 36 0 15 0 190 297 6,834 4,9752012* 51 298 0 0 20 16 95 314 5,098 3,076

Year Champaign, IL Savoy Village, IL Urbana, IL

*preliminary through September 2012

Champaign County State of Illinois# of Building Permits Issued

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database


Live Birth Data

Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District.

In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten survival ratio. This ratio identifies thepercentageofchildrenborn ina representativeareawhoattendkindergarten in theDistrictfiveyearslater.Thesurvivalratiosforbirth-to-kindergartenaswellasgrades1-12canbefoundon page 17 of this report.

Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Champaign County but delivers her baby in Cook County, the birth is counted in Champaign County. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate isthenumberofbirthsper1,000womeninaspecifiedpopulationgroup.

The following charts and graphs include the live birth counts for Champaign County, Illinois. Live births have increased from 2,175 in 1997 to 2,407 in 2009.

Year # of Live Births1997 2,1751998 2,1281999 2,1942000 2,2602001 2,3122002 2,2262003 2,2882004 2,2912005 2,4902006 2,4552007 2,5082008 2,4822009 2,407

Champaign County, IL

Source: Illinois Department of Public Health


Survival Ratios

The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the 2005-06 school year were present in 2nd grade for the 2006-07 school year, the survival ratio would be 100%.

Birth to Kindergarten: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten intheDistrictfiveyearslater.Whatisimportanttonoteisthetrendinsurvivalratio,notnecessarilytheactual number.

Grades 8-9: The higher than usual percentage often is a result of school system promotion policies. Often in school systems,after one year in 9thgrade, studentsdonot have sufficientcredits tobeclassifiedasa10thgrader.Therefore,theyarecountedagainas9thgradersthefollowingyear.Theremay also be students who are attending private or community schools or are home-schooled through grade 8 and then attend public schools for high school education.

The following graph illustrates the historical survival ratios in Champaign Unit 4 School District over the past ten years by grade level.

from to birth to k k to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 122003 2004 30.67% 103.81% 101.02% 96.88% 97.94% 99.02% 95.09% 92.87% 96.83% 121.83% 91.32% 93.17% 97.99%2004 2005 30.80% 99.11% 101.55% 96.82% 100.31% 100.15% 97.88% 96.99% 95.63% 130.33% 90.44% 94.09% 93.74%2005 2006 31.49% 99.14% 102.25% 99.72% 99.55% 97.86% 94.46% 97.83% 97.78% 115.75% 91.82% 98.02% 94.79%2006 2007 32.48% 99.18% 104.06% 97.95% 97.08% 100.00% 97.03% 95.72% 97.78% 120.42% 91.43% 87.81% 88.27%2007 2008 30.99% 102.90% 104.85% 98.05% 99.55% 100.14% 100.00% 99.19% 102.48% 124.51% 87.81% 92.56% 87.68%2008 2009 30.82% 105.92% 99.87% 99.08% 100.28% 97.89% 98.57% 96.55% 97.56% 130.37% 84.93% 91.13% 95.50%2009 2010 30.12% 100.99% 102.40% 96.37% 100.00% 101.27% 98.92% 97.97% 97.98% 124.96% 82.40% 89.56% 94.98%2010 2011 32.51% 100.13% 102.81% 94.28% 101.40% 98.27% 94.55% 95.81% 95.70% 125.04% 83.75% 99.85% 90.10%2011 2012 34.65% 101.75% 100.40% 98.77% 100.55% 98.35% 97.42% 97.34% 101.13% 127.91% 90.75% 99.05% 89.76%

31.61% 101.44% 102.13% 97.55% 99.63% 99.22% 97.10% 96.70% 98.10% 124.57% 88.30% 93.91% 92.53%1.32% 2.25% 1.54% 1.56% 1.26% 1.15% 1.89% 1.70% 2.17% 4.48% 3.48% 4.01% 3.44%

averagestandard deviation

Source: DeJONG-RICHTER


Champaign Unit 4 School District Historical Enrollment

As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Champaign Unit 4 School District has increased by 336 students, or 4 percent. The enrollment count for the current 2012-13 school year is 9,362 students.

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13K 683 673 696 728 723 709 706 750 798 8691 685 709 667 690 722 744 751 713 751 8122 673 692 720 682 718 757 743 769 733 7543 681 652 670 718 668 704 750 716 725 7244 713 667 654 667 697 665 706 750 726 7295 733 706 668 640 667 698 651 715 737 7146 715 697 691 631 621 667 688 644 676 7187 630 664 676 676 604 616 644 674 617 6588 687 610 635 661 661 619 601 631 645 6249 760 837 795 735 796 823 807 751 789 82510 703 694 757 730 672 699 699 665 629 71611 698 655 653 742 641 622 637 626 664 62312 665 684 614 619 655 562 594 605 564 596Total 9,026 8,940 8,896 8,919 8,845 8,885 8,977 9,009 9,054 9,362

Champaign Unit 4 School DistrictHistorical Enrollment

Source: Champaign Unit 4 School District

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13K - 5 4,168 4,099 4,075 4,125 4,195 4,277 4,307 4,413 4,470 4,6026 - 8 2,032 1,971 2,002 1,968 1,886 1,902 1,933 1,949 1,938 2,0009 - 12 2,826 2,870 2,819 2,826 2,764 2,706 2,737 2,647 2,646 2,760Total 9,026 8,940 8,896 8,919 8,845 8,885 8,977 9,009 9,054 9,362Source: Champaign Unit 4 School District

Champaign Unit 4 School DistrictHistorical Enrollment by Grade Configuration


Champaign Unit 4 School District Projected Enrollment

Projected enrollment in Champaign Unit 4 School District is projected to increase from 9,362 in 2012-13 to 10,231 students in 2022-23.

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23K 798 774 786 786 787 787 787 787 787 7871 882 810 785 798 798 798 798 798 798 7982 828 899 826 801 814 814 814 814 814 8143 737 809 879 807 783 795 795 795 795 7954 724 737 810 879 807 783 795 795 796 7965 724 719 732 804 873 802 778 790 790 7906 699 709 705 717 788 855 786 762 774 7747 696 678 687 683 695 763 829 761 738 7508 642 679 661 671 666 678 745 809 743 7209 784 807 853 831 842 837 852 935 1,016 93310 713 677 697 736 717 728 723 735 808 87711 670 667 634 652 690 672 681 677 689 75612 580 624 621 590 607 642 626 634 630 641Total 9,477 9,589 9,676 9,755 9,867 9,954 10,009 10,092 10,178 10,231

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23K - 5 4,693 4,748 4,818 4,875 4,862 4,779 4,767 4,779 4,780 4,7806 - 8 2,037 2,066 2,053 2,071 2,149 2,296 2,360 2,332 2,255 2,2449 - 12 2,747 2,775 2,805 2,809 2,856 2,879 2,882 2,981 3,143 3,207Total 9,477 9,589 9,676 9,755 9,867 9,954 10,009 10,092 10,178 10,231Source: DeJONG-RICHTER

Champaign Unit 4 School DistrictProjected Enrollment

Source: DeJONG-RICHTER

Champaign Unit 4 School DistrictProjected Enrollment by Grade Configuration


Conclusion

As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in elementary schools, charter school enrollment, non-public enrollment, in/out migration patterns, and any housing growth. It is recommended that this document be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent growth and enrollment trends will impact the enrollment projections.

DeJONG-RICHTER is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed decisions about the future of the Champaign Unit 4 School District.

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