challenges of the soymeal trade 23 june 2009, harkány zsolt sebők agp magyarország kft
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Challenges of the Soymeal Trade
23 June 2009, Harkány
Zsolt SebőkAGP Magyarország Kft.
Typical Ingredients of Forages
Cereal
Corn Wheat Barley Triticale
Protein Carriers
Extruded soymeal Extruded rape meal Extruded sunflower meal Fishmeal Potato protein Full-fat soymeal
Forage Composition for Broiler Chicken Feeding
Starter
0,5 kg/Pcs
Grower 1,5
kg/Pcs
Finisher 2,0
kg/Pcs
Ingredients Ft/kg % % %
Corn 35,00 58,0 62,0 66,5
Soymeal (48%) 110,00 35,0 31,0 26,0
Sunflower Oil 180,00 2,5 3,5 4,5
PAK21/NN 255,00 4,5
PAKF22/M 250,00 3,5
PAKF23 225,00 3,0
In Total 100,0 100,0 100,0
Price Ft/kg 74,78 Ft 70,85 Ft 66,73 Ft
Raw Protein % 21,92 20,24 18,23
Lysine % 1,30 1,13 1,00
Methionine % 0,60 0,53 0,50
Raw Fat % 5,37 6,44 7,50
Calcium % 0,92 0,80 0,72
Phosphor % 0,72 0,54 0,49
Sodium % 0,15 0,15 0,15
Forage Need per 1000 Pcs of Broiler Chicken
Ingredients Ft/kg Kg Ft
Corn 35,- 2 550 89 250
Soymeal (48%) 110,- 1 160 127 600
Sunflower Oil 180,- 155 27 900
PAK21/NN 255,- 23 5 738
PAKF22/M 250,- 53 13 125
PAKF23 225,- 60 13 500
In Total 4 000 277 113
Broiler Feeding Ingredient Composition
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kg Ft
Kukorica Szójadara (48%) NapraforgóolajPAK21/NN PAKF22/M PAKF23
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
55,0%
60,0%
65,0%
70,0%
Kukorica Szójadara (48%) Napraforgóolaj PAK21/NN PAKF22/M PAKF23
Kg Ft
Soybean Output in 2009
Soybean Output in 2009
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
USA
Brazil
ia
Argen
tína
együ
ttVilá
g
mln
to
ns
millió tonna
The World’s Soybean Output 2009
million tons %
USA 87,70 35,84
Brazil 62,00 25,34
Argentina 34,00 13,89
In Total 183,70 75,07
World 244,70 100,00
The World's Soybean Stock Usage
Changes in the World’s Soybean Stock (million tons)
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2008-2009
2009-2010
Start Stock 53,1 62,7 53,1 42,6 52,9 41,9
Crop 237,4 221,1 212,8 241,7 210,9 241,7
Usage 225,5 229,5 222,5 231,5 221,8 231,6
End Stock 62,7 53,1 42,6 51,9 41,9 51,0
Stock Usage 27,8 23,1 19,1 22,4 18,9 22,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
USDA 2009.május
mil
l. t
on
na
nyitókészlet termés felhasználás zárókészlet
Soybean Stock Usage in the USA
May 2009 USDA June 2009 USDA
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010 2009-2010
Production Area mill. ha 30,73 26,33 30,81 30,93 30,93
Average Crop t/ha 2,89 2,80 2,66 2,86 2,86
Start Stock mill t 12,22 15,62 5,58 3,54 2,99
Crop mill t 87,01 72,86 80,53 86,96 86,96
Import mill t 0,24 0,27 0,33 0,33 0,33
In Total mill t 99,47 88,75 86,44 90,82 90,27
Processing mill t 49,21 49,02 44,63 45,59 45,59
Export mill t 30,37 31,60 33,75 34,29 34,29
Seeds mill t 2,18 2,53 2,56 2,50 2,50
Other mill t 2,10 0,00 1,99 2,15 2,15
Usage In Total mill t 83,85 83,17 82,90 84,56 84,56
End Stock mill t 15,62 5,58 3,54 6,26 5,71
Stock Usage % 18,6 6,7 4,3 7,40 6,8
The World’s Soybean Trade in 2008/2009 (million tons)
Export Import
Argentina 10,0 Europe 13,5
Brazil 25,3 North America 4,4
USA 32,6 South America 2,6
Canada 1,9 Asia, The Far East 49,1
China 0,5 Asia, The Middle East 2,8
Paraguay 2,4 Africa 1,5
Other 1,6 Other Unknown 0,4
World In Total 74,3 Word In Total 74,3
Out of this
China 38,0
EU 13,0
The World’s Soybean Trade
Soybean export in 08/09 - 74,3 mln tons
13%
34%44%
3%
1%
3%
2%
Argentína Brazilia USA Kanada
Kína Paraguay egyéb
Soybean import in 08/09 - 74,3 mln tons
18%
6%
3%
66%
4%
2%
1%
Európa Észak AmerikaDél Amerika Ázsia Táv ol KeletÁzsia Közel és Középkelet Af rikaegy éb ismeretlen
The World’s Soymeal Trade In 2008/2009 - 52,8 million tons
Export Import
Argentina 24,0 Europe 23,3
Brazil 12,5 North America 4,7
USA 7,6 South America 3,7
Canada 5,0 Asia, The Far East 14,3
China 0,6 Asia, The Middle East 2,9
Paraguay 1,2 Africa 2,7
Other 0,4 Other Unknown 1,2
World In Total 1,5 Word In Total
Argentina 52,8 Out of this 52,8
EU 22,8
The World’s Soymeal Trade
Soymeal export in 08/09 - 52,8 mln tons
46%
24%
14%
9%
1%
2%
1%
3%
Argentína Brazilia USA IndiaKína Paraguay EU egyéb
Soymeal import in 08/09 - 52,8 mln tons
45%
9%7%
27%
5% 5% 2%
Európa Észak AmerikaDél Amerika Ázsia Távol Kelet
Ázsia Közel és Közép Kelet Afrikaegyéb ismeretlen
Soymeal Trade in Hungary
Period
Import Export
Quantity (tons) Quantity (tons)
2000. 669 119
2001. 771 641
2002. 846 446
2003. 820 159 3 266
2004. 636 260 31 411
2005. 585 935 20 657
2006. 673 421 29 966
2007. 813 225 32 481
2008. 733 174 29 146
Soymeal Import and Export In Hungary
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008.
import
export
Soymeal Import at the beginning of this Year
Soymeal import in Hungary (tons
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2008. január 2009. január 2008. február 2009. február
Soymeal Import in Hungary (tons)
Period Import
January 2008 69 772
January 2009 45 584
February 2008 51 222
February 2009 36 623
Important Issues of the Soymeal Trade
Quality
Price, Price-Setting
Logistics
Financing
Quality and GMO
Ingredients of the Hipro and II.class Brazil soymeal
Hipro II. class
Solids % 88,0 88,0 Raw Protein % 48,0 46,0 ME poultry MJ/kg 10,6 9,8 DE pork MJ/kg 15,4 14,6 ME pork MJ/kg 14,2 13,5 Raw Fibre % 3,5 7,0 Raw Fat % 1,4 1,4 Lysine % 2,85 2,58 Methionine % 0,64 0,57 Methionine +Cistine 1,26 1,17
(source: American Soybean Association)
Factors that affect Soymeal Price The base for the price setting is always the price at
Chicago Board of Trade (www.cbot.com)
Supply Production Area Output, weather Strike Oil price
Demand Livestock Animal Health Situation China’s Market Behaviour Market Situation of Substitutes
Money Funds Transfer
Oil price River Shipping Road Transport
Rate of Exchange Duty
www.cbot.com
www.cbot.com
Hungary’s Soymeal Import
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
2002. 2003. 2006. 2007. 2008.
Szójadara import tonna Uszályos import tonna
Soymeal Import River Import
tons tons %
2002. 846 446 831 009 98,18
2003. 820 159 731 903 89,24
2006. 673 421 310 446 46,10
2007. 813 225 168 396 20,71
2008. 733 174 177 120 24,16
Financing
River Import takes too long
Extension of payment deadlines
Payment willing and ability
Less Credit Sources available and these became more expensive
In case of bonds in HUF double financing
Thank You for Your Attention!
Sources: AKI USDA Report Cereal Association ASA FVM KSH GKM