1. 1. Challengers at the End of History: how illiberal democracy and the 'Asian model' are threatening Fukuyamism
2. 2. Francis Fukuyama, 1989: The end of history 20th century: liberal democratic capitalism overcame both fascism and Soviet communism Liberal democracy is the final form of human government, the pinnacle of our ideological evolution*
3. 3. Yeah, this is actually a thing.
4. 4. Even if liberal democracy is normatively the best possible regime, our praise for it still needs to reflect its performance in reality I argue that the end of history thesis is premature because: 1) The assumption of liberal primacy is based on the empirical foundation of exclusive and enduring Western dominance 2) That dominance is being seriously challenged
5. 5. Fukuyama acknowledged this possibility...** If the Soviet Union had entered on an era of explosive double-digit growth in the 1970s and 1980s while Europe and the United States stagnated, our view of the respective normative merits of capitalism and socialism would be very different. The normative argument, therefore, is crucially and obviously dependent on empirical evidence. - Francis Fukuyama. 1995. The End of History, Five Years Later. History and Theory. 34:2, p. 29.
6. 6. Why the 'ill' ? Illiberal democracy still involves free elections BUT: Limits on civil society and the press Judicial branch may not be independent from executive influence rule of law tainted Minority rights often not guaranteed tyranny of the majority Examples: Singapore, Russia, Turkey, Hungary
7. 7. The 'Asian model' China: authoritarian capitalism Singapore: illiberal democratic capitalism soft-authoritarian The potency of the 'Asian model' of capitalism suggests that sustained economic success does not require liberal democracy
8. 8. Great Recession, 2008 Chinese growth rate slowed from 14.2% in 2007 to 9.2% in 2009 Net GDP expansion of 45.7% from 2007-2009 American economy grew 1.66% between 2007- 2008, then contracted by 2.04% in 2009 Fukuyama's criticism doesn't seem to hold
9. 9. China and the CCP Local leaders elected by and accountable to constituents Top Chinese leadership chosen meritocratically by their peers within senior echelons of the Politburo and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) *TED Talk: Eric X. Li A Tale of Two Political Systems Late 1970s: Under Premier Deng Xiaoping, China implemented neoliberal policy of Reform and Opening Up
10. 10. Chinese Authoritarian Capitalism Government controls its citizens' participation in external markets and access to media The Great Firewall of China Weibo instead of Facebook Social media closely monitored and censored Represses and discriminates vs ethnic minorities Forceful relocation when in state interest Judicial institutions controlled by CCP
11. 11. Singapore and the PAP (1/3) Singapore: founded in 1959 under Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew's People's Action Party (PAP) soft-authoritarian style unique even among illiberal democracies Political opposition marginalized No free press or autonomous civil society Defamation and contempt laws limit dissent of government policies
12. 12. Singapore and the PAP (2/3) soft-authoritarianism specifically chosen to achieve rapid economic growth Singapore's chief economic architect Dr. Goh Keng Swee: this model is necessary because most people won't consent to making painful sacrifices required for rapid growth even if promised future prosperity in return
13. 13. Singapore and the PAP (3/3) Communitarian democracy: limited political pluralism in favour of consensus building under state guidance Message has resonated: PAP has dominated free elections since 1965 Won 75.3% of the vote in 2001, 66.6% in 2006, 60.1% in 2011 2011: PAP won 81/87 seats in parliament PAP's worst ever result
14. 14. From Asia to Europe
15. 15. Illiberal Democracy in Europe 2008 global recession triggered a sovereign debt crisis in Europe Massive unemployment (2013): 27.5% in Greece, 25.8% in Spain, 10.2% in France, 8.8% in Hungary Severe austerity measures crippled pensions In post-9/11 context, heightened xenophobia Record gains for far-right political parties Greece: Neofascist Golden Dawn; France: 'Euroskeptic' Front National (FN); Britain: UKIP, BNP
16. 16. Example: Hungary's illiberal democracy Prime Minister Victor Orbn societies founded upon the principle of the liberal way . . . will not be able to sustain their world-competitiveness in the following years Freedom, human rights will remain intact. But emphasis on nationalist approach.
17. 17. What does this all mean?
18. 18. Could illiberal democracy discredit liberal democracy? Fareed Zakaria, 1997: There are no longer respectable alternatives to democracy . . . Thus the problems of the 21st century will likely be problems within democracy. French 'lacit': official secularism 2004 ban on Muslim headscarf and hijab Attempted to preserve liberalism, but suppressed pluralism which = illiberalism Increased surveillance in Western world
19. 19. 'Asian model' has great promise 2005 Pew study: 76% of Chinese optimistic their position would improve over next 5 years Only 48% of Americans were optimistic Then 2008 crisis hit
20. 20. Slavoj Zizek: We can no longer have this Fukuyama optimistic view that [illiberal countries] are just remainders of the past . . . they are the future Zakaria: Western liberal democracy might prove to be not the final destination on the democratic road, but just one of many possible exits. An illiberal future?