ch01 forwrd and futures, options
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
1/34
IntroductionChapter 1
1
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
2/34
Derivates- Definition
A derivative can be defined as a financialinstrument whose value depends on (orderives from) the values of other, more basic,underlying variables. Very often the variablesunderlying derivatives are the prices of tradedassets. A stock option, for example, is aderivative whose value is dependent on the
price of a stock. Depending on the type ofrelationship they can broadly be classifiedinto two categories:
Linear
Non-Linear instruments 2
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
3/34
Derivates- Definition
1. Linear Instruments (payoffs): refers toforward contracts, futures and swaps.These are obligations to exchangepayments according to specified schedule.
2. Non-Linear Instruments (payoffs): refers tooptions, their value is non-linear functionof the underlying assets.
Derivates are financial contract traded inprivate over the counter (OTC) markets or onorganized exchanges.
3
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
4/34
Size of OTC and Exchange-Traded Markets(Figure 1.1, Page 3)
4
Source: Bank for International Settlements. Chart shows total principal
amounts for OTC market and value of underlying assets for exchange
market
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07
Size ofMarket
($ trillion)
OTCExchange
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
5/34
5
Ways Derivatives are Used
To hedge risks
To speculate (take a view on thefuture direction of the market)
To lock in an arbitrage profit
To change the nature of a liability
To change the nature of an investment
without incurring the costs of sellingone portfolio and buying another
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
6/34
6
Foreign Exchange Quotes forGBP, July 20, 2007 (See page 4)
Bid Offer
Spot 2.0558 2.0562
1-month forward 2.0547 2.0552
3-month forward 2.0526 2.0531
6-month forward 2.0483 2.0489
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
7/347
Forward Price
The forward price for a contract is thedelivery price that would be applicable tothe contract if were negotiated today(i.e., it is the delivery price that would
make the contract worth exactly zero)
The forward price may be different forcontracts of different maturities
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
8/348
Terminology
The party that has agreed to buyhas what is termed a long position
The party that has agreed to sellhas what is termed a short position
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
9/349
Example (page 4)
On July 20, 2007 the treasurer of acorporation enters into a long forwardcontract to buy 1 million in six months atan exchange rate of 2.0489
This obligates the corporation to pay$2,048,900 for 1 million on January 20,2008
What are the possible outcomes?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
10/3410
Profit from aLong Forward Position
Profit
Price of Underlying
at Maturity, ST
K
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
11/3411
Profit from aShort Forward Position
Profit
Price of Underlying
at Maturity, ST
K
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
12/3412
Futures Contracts (page 6)
Agreement to buy or sell an asset for acertain price at a certain time
Similar to forward contract Whereas a forward contract is traded OTC,
a futures contract is traded on an exchange
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
13/3413
Exchanges Trading Futures
Chicago Board of Trade Chicago Mercantile Exchange
LIFFE (London)
Eurex (Europe) BM&F (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
TIFFE (Tokyo)
and many more (see list at end of book)
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
14/34
14
Examples of Futures Contracts
Agreement to:
Buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$900/oz. inDecember (NYMEX)
Sell 62,500 @ 2.0500 US$/ in March(CME)
Sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$120/bbl. in
April (NYMEX)
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
15/34
15
1. Gold: An Arbitrage
Opportunity?
Suppose that:
The spot price of gold is US$900
The 1-year forward price of gold isUS$1,020
The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per
annumIs there an arbitrage opportunity?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
16/34
16
2. Gold: Another ArbitrageOpportunity?
Suppose that:
- The spot price of gold is US$900
- The 1-year forward price of gold isUS$900- The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5%
per annum
Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
17/34
17
The Forward Price of Gold
If the spot price of gold is Sand theforward price for a contract deliverable in Tyears isF, then
F= S (1+r )Twhere r is the 1-year (domestic currency)risk-free rate of interest.
In our examples,S
= 900,T
= 1, andr
=0.05 so that
F = 900(1+0.05) = 945
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
18/34
18
1. Oil: An Arbitrage Opportunity?
Suppose that:
- The spot price of oil is US$95- The quoted 1-year futures price of
oil is US$125
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is5% per annum
- The storage costs of oil are 2%per annumIs there an arbitrage opportunity?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
19/34
19
2. Oil: Another ArbitrageOpportunity?
Suppose that:
- The spot price of oil is US$95- The quoted 1-year futures price of
oil is US$80- The 1-year US$ interest rate is
5% per annum
- The storage costs of oil are 2%per annumIs there an arbitrage opportunity?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
20/34
20
Options
A call option is an option to buy a certainasset by a certain date for a certain price(the strike price)
A put option is an option to sell a certainasset by a certain date for a certain price(the strike price)
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
21/34
21
American vs European Options
An American option can be exercised at anytime during its life
A European option can be exercised only at
maturity
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
22/34
Intel Option Prices (Sept 12, 2006; StockPrice=19.56);See Table 1.2 page 7; Source: CBOE
22
StrikePrice
OctCall
JanCall
AprCall
OctPut
JanPut
AprPut
15.00 4.650 4.950 5.150 0.025 0.150 0.275
17.50 2.300 2.775 3.150 0.125 0.475 0.725
20.00 0.575 1.175 1.650 0.875 1.375 1.700
22.50 0.075 0.375 0.725 2.950 3.100 3.300
25.00 0.025 0.125 0.275 5.450 5.450 5.450
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
23/34
23
Exchanges Trading Options
Chicago Board Options ExchangeAmerican Stock Exchange
Philadelphia Stock Exchange
Pacific Exchange LIFFE (London)
Eurex (Europe)
and many more (see list at end of book)
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
24/34
24
Options vs Futures/Forwards
A futures/forward contract gives the holderthe obligation to buy or sell at a certainprice
An option gives the holder the right to buyor sell at a certain price
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
25/34
Buy one Jan Call option contract at a Strikeprice of $20. What could be the possible
outcomes?
Sell one Oct Put option contract at a Strike
price of $22.50. What could be the possibleoutcomes?
25
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
26/34
Four type of participants in the option market:
Buyers of calls
Sellers of calls
Buyers of puts
Sellers of puts
26
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
27/34
27
Types of Traders
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Some of the largest trading losses in derivatives have
occurred because individuals who had a mandate to be
hedgers or arbitrageurs switched to being speculators
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
28/34
28
Hedging Examples (pages 10-11)
A US company will pay 10 million forimports from Britain in 3 months anddecides to hedge using a long position in aforward contract
An investor owns 1,000 Microsoft sharescurrently worth $28 per share. A two-monthput with a strike price of $27.50 costs $1.The investor decides to hedge by buying 10
contracts
H d i b i d i
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
29/34
Hedging being done usingForwards OR Option contracts- A
Comparison Forward contracts are designed to
neutralize risk by fixing the price that
hedger will pay or receive for the underlyingassets.
Option contract by contrast provideinsurance.
29
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
30/34
30
Value of Microsoft Shares withand without Hedging (Fig 1.4, page 11)
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
20 25 30 35 40
Value of Holding($)
Stock Price ($)
No Hedging
Hedging
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
31/34
31
Speculation Example
An investor with $2,000 to invest feels thata stock price will increase over the next 2months. The current stock price is $20 and
the price of a 2-month call option with astrike of 22.50 is $1
What are the alternative strategies?
S l ti b i d i
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
32/34
Speculation being done usingFuture OR Option contracts- A
ComparisonFuture and options are similar instruments forspeculators in that they both provide a way in
which type of leverage can be obtained. Using future position the potential loss and
potential loss is very large.
When options are used, the speculators
loss is limited to the amount paid forentering the option.
32
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
33/34
33
Arbitrage Example
A stock price is quoted as 100 in Londonand $200 in New York
The current exchange rate is 2.0300 What is the arbitrage opportunity?
-
8/13/2019 Ch01 Forwrd and futures, options
34/34
Questions:
It is May and a trader writes a Septembercall option with a strike price of $20. thestock price is $18 and the option price is$2. Describe the traders cash flow if theoption is held until September and thestock price is $25 at that time?
A trader writes a December put option with
a strike of price of $30. the price of optionis $4. under what circumstances does atrader make a gain?