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Ch. 15 Managing Service Projects

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常見的專案問題

1. 畢專：開學前完成計畫書（ Gantt 圖）2. 畢旅，或系學會規劃運管營及交通盃3. 借鏡：訪談本系主辦運輸年會之經驗，老

師提國科會計畫案4. 包括哪些 activity ？ Critical path ？

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Learning Objectives

1. the nature of project management (PM)

2. project network and critical path analysis

3. activity crashing: Cost-time Tradeoff

4. incorporating uncertainty in activity times

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1. The Nature of PM

Characteristics purpose, life cycle, interdependencies, uniqueness,

and conflict.

Process planning (work breakdown structure, WBS),

scheduling, and controlling.

Selecting the Project Manager credibility, sensitivity, ability to handle stress, and

leadership.

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1. The Nature of PM

Building the Project Team Forming, Storming, Norming, and Performing.

Principles of Effective PM direct people individually and as a team, reinforce excitement,

keep everyone informed, manage healthy conflict, empower team, encourage risk taking and creativity.

Project Metrics Cost, Time, Performance

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1. PM Questions (4W1H)

What activities are required to complete a project and in what sequence?

When should each activity be scheduled to begin and end?

Which activities are critical to completing the project on time?

What is the probability of meeting the project completion due date?

How should resources be allocated to activities?

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2. Techniques for PM

1. Gantt chart

2. Project network

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2. Tennis Tournament Activities

ID Activity Description Network Immediate Duration Node Predecessor (days)1 Negotiate for Location A - 22 Contact Seeded Players B - 83 Plan Promotion C 1 34 Locate Officials D 3 25 Send RSVP Invitations E 3 106 Sign Player Contracts F 2,3 47 Purchase Balls and Trophies G 4 48 Negotiate Catering H 5,6 19 Prepare Location I 5,7 310 Tournament J 8,9 2

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Notation for Critical Path Analysis

Item Symbol Definition

Activity duration t The expected duration of an activity

Early start ES The earliest time an activity can begin if all previous activities are begun at their earliest times

Early finish EF The earliest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its early start time

Late start LS The latest time an activity can begin without delaying the completion of the project

Late finish LF The latest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its latest start time

Total slack TS The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project

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Scheduling Formulas

ES = EFpredecessor (max) (1)

EF = ES + t (2)

LF = LSsuccessor (min) (3)

LS = LF - t (4)

TS = LF - EF (5)

TS = LS - ES (6) or

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Activity on Node Diagram

J2

B8

START

A2 C3 D2 G4

E10 I3

F4 H1

TS ES EF

LS LF

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Early Start Gantt Chart

ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20A Negotiate for 2 LocationB Contact Seeded 8 PlayersC Plan Promotion 3

D Locate Officials 2

E Send RSVP 10 InvitationsF Sign Player 4 ContractsG Purchase Balls 4 and TrophiesH Negotiate 1 CateringI Prepare Location 3

J Tournament 2

Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1

Critical Path ActivitiesActivities with Slack

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Resource Leveled Schedule

ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20A Negotiate for 2 LocationB Contact Seeded 8 PlayersC Plan Promotion 3

D Locate Officials 2

E Send RSVP 10 InvitationsF Sign Player 4 ContractsG Purchase Balls 4 and TrophiesH Negotiate 1 CateringI Prepare Location 3

J Tournament 2

Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1

Critical Path ActivitiesActivities with Slack

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3. Costs for Hypothetical Project

Cos

t

(0,0)

Schedule with Minimum Total Cost

Duration of Project

Total Cost

Indirect Cost

Opportunity Cost

Direct Cost

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Cost-Time Estimates

Time Estimate Direct Cost Expedite CostActivity Normal Crash Normal Crash Slope A 2 1 5 15 10 B 8 6 22 30 4 C 3 2 10 13 3 D 2 1 11 17 6 E 10 6 20 40 5 F 4 3 8 15 7 G 4 3 9 10 1 H 1 1 10 10 － I 3 2 8 10 2 J 2 1 12 20 8 Total 115

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Activity Cost-time Tradeoff

C

C*

D* D Activity Duration (Days)

Normal

CrashSlope is cost to expedite per day

Cost

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Progressive Crashing

Project Activity Direct Indirect Opportunity TotalDuration Crashed Cost Cost Cost Cost 20 Normal 115 45 8 168 19 41 6 18 37 4 17 33 2 16 29 0 15 25 -2 14 21 -4 13 17 -6 12 13 -8

Normal Duration After Crashing ActivityProject Paths DurationA-C-D-G-I-J 16A-C-E-I-J 20A-C-E-H-J 18A-C-F-H-J 12B-F-H-J 15

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4. Incorporating Uncertainty in Activity times

A M D B

F(D)P(D<A) = .01

P(D>B) = .01

optimistic most pessimistic likely

TIME

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Formulas for Beta Distribution of Activity Duration

1. Expected Duration

DA M B_

4

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2. Variance

VB A

6

2

Note: (B - A )= Range or 6

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Activity Means and Variances

Activity A M B D V A 1 2 3 B 5 8 11 C 2 3 4 D 1 2 3 E 6 9 18 F 2 4 6 G 1 3 11 H 1 1 1 I 2 2 8 J 2 2 2

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Uncertainly Analysis

Assumptions1. Use of Beta Distribution and Formulas For D and V2. Activities Statistically Independent3. Central Limit Theorem Applies ( Use “student t” if less than 30 activities on CP) 4. Use of Critical Path Activities Leading Into Event Node

ResultProject Completion Time Distribution is Normal With:

For Critical Path Activities

For Critical Path Activities

D_

2 V

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Completion Time Distribution

Critical Path Activities D V A 2 4/36 C 3 4/36 E 10 144/36 I 3 36/36 J 2 0

= 20 188/36 = 5.2 = 2

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Question

What is the probability of an overrun if a 24 day completion time is promised?

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P (Time > 24) = .5 - .4599 = .04 or 4%

Days

2 5 2 .

ZX

Z

Z

24 20

52175

..

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Discussion: Applying Theory of Constraints (TOC) to PM

Why does activity safety time exist and is subsequently lost?1. The “student syndrome” procrastination phenomena.2. Multi-tasking muddles priorities.3. Dependencies between activities cause delays to accumulate.

Buffer: Reduce by ½ all activity durations > 3 days to eliminate safety time

Software: Project 2000

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Exercise

Prepare a work breakdown structure (WBS) for a homecoming dance.