center of ocean-land- atmosphere studies projected regional changes jagadish shukla lecture18: oct...
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![Page 1: Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Projected Regional Changes Jagadish Shukla Lecture18: Oct 30, 2008 CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649cc25503460f9498a784/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies
Projected Regional ChangesProjected Regional Changes
Jagadish ShuklaJagadish Shukla
Lecture18: Oct 30, 2008
CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society
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Main threat to a sustainable Earth• Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in
second half of century• Dynamic instability of Greenland ice sheets • Very likely increase in heat waves • Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms• Etc…
SST
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Main threat to a sustainable Earth
• Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year
• Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year
• This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy
• “We can grow and be green”Sir Nicholas Stern
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Main threat to a sustainable Earth
• According to IPCC AR4/WGIII, the cost of avoiding the worst would be only a fraction of what Stern Report projected
Trajectories towards
stabilization levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
MedianGDP reduction
(%)
Range of GDP reduction
(%)
Reduction of average annual GDP growth
rates (percentage points)
590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06
535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1
445-535 Not available < 3 < 0.12
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Sustainability issues – LDCs• China, India and Brazil: now among the
main drivers of the world’s economy
Nepstad et al., Conservation Biology (2006)
China’s GDP has grown on average 9.6% per year in the last quarter century
China replaced EU as the main importer of Brazilian soybeans
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Sustainability issues – LDCs
• Cultivated land area went from 1,307,400 km² in 1991 to 1,282,400 km² in 2000
• Construction accounted for 56.6% of reduction
• 60% of China’s 669 cities face water scarcity
Economic losses due to pollution in China amounted to US$ 12.8 billion annually – 1.4% of GDP (1990-1998)
Source: Gaoming Jiang & Jixi Gao, 2007
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Sustainability issues - LDCs• 2006: 2.6% increase in global CO2 from fossil fuel• Mainly due to 4.5% increase in coal consumption• China contributed more than two-thirds• China’s CO2 emissions surpassed those of the USA by 8%
LDCs are now part of the problem and part of the solution
Total emissions
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Sustainability issues - LDCs
But LDCs: small contribution to climate change, at least in per capita terms
0.0
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Brazil
China
France
Germany
I ndia
I ndonesia
J apan
Russian Federation
United Kingdom
United States
Per capita emissions
US
China
Remember 1992 UNFCCC: “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
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Equality: impacts will hit the poor hardest and earliest
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Impacts hit the poor hardest• 30 to 200 million people at risk of hunger with temperature rises of 2 to 3°C
• 0.7 to 4.4 billion people will experience growing water shortages with a rise of 2°C
Yields across Africa and Western Asia may fall by 15% to 35%
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Impacts hit the poor hardest Climate impacts will decrease water
availability and drought in semi-arid latitudes“It’s exactly what we don’t want; it makes the world
much less even, more inequitable”Martin Parry, co-chair IPCC WGII
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Challenges to be addressed
• Purification of air and water• Mitigation of droughts and floods• Preservation of soils• Pollination of crops and vegetation• Dispersal of seeds
• Cycling and movement of nutrients• Control of potential agricultural pests• Maintenance of biodiversity• Protection of coastal shores erosion• Stabilization of climate etc.
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
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Sustainability issues – LDCs• Under threat: Cerrado, Brazilian savanna
• One of Brazil’s two biodiversity hotspots
• At the current rate of loss, gone by 2030
CI/Nature
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Impacts hit the poor hardest
• Adaptation will cost LDCs $10 bns anually• Even more for the necessary infrastructure
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Main threat to a sustainable Earth
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Source: Gordon et al., 2004
Impacts hit the poor hardest
• Nearly 200 million people live in coastal flood zones at risk
• South Asia alone: more than 60 million people
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Future climate change will affect water availability, increasing water stress in already stressed regions...
ImpactsImpacts
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Extreme rainfall variability: the case Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenyaof Kenya
Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
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Kenya’sKenya’s 97-98 flood & 1998-2000 drought97-98 flood & 1998-2000 drought
Hirji et al, World Bank (2003)
10/97-02/98 flood infrastructure damage $ 2.39 b
10/98-05/00 drought crop loss $ 0.24 b
livestock loss $ 0.14 b
reduc. HP production $ 0.64 b
reduc. industr. production $ 1.39 b
total $ 2.41 b
10/97-05/00 cost of climate variability $ 4.8 b
approx (annual) GDP ($9b/yr) $ 22 b
impact as % GDP/annum 22%
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Mozambique’sMozambique’s 2000 floods2000 floods
Real GDP - 23%
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-10.0
-5.0
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10.0
15.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Years
Real
GDP
gro
wth
(%)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Varia
bilit
y in
Rai
nfal
l (M
eter
)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
RRainfall affects growth…. ainfall affects growth…. the case of Zimbabwethe case of Zimbabwe
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Africa hanges over Africa ((A1B A1B ))
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Anomaly of Mean Monthly Precipitation Downscaled from Anomaly of Mean Monthly Precipitation Downscaled from GCMsGCMs
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over Europe(Europe(A1B A1B ))
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Ahanges over Asisia a ((A1B A1B ))
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over North North AAmericamerica ((A1B A1B ))
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Percent Snow Depth Changes in MarchPercent Snow Depth Changes in March
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over South AmericaSouth America ((A1B A1B ))
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PROJECTED SCENARIOS OF DEFORESTATION ...PROJECTED SCENARIOS OF DEFORESTATION ...Control 20% 40% 50%
60% 80% 100%
or Soybean
Source: Soares-Filho et al., 2006 and Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007
Vegetation classification
Dorman and Sellers (1989)
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Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Ahanges over Australiaustralia ((A1B A1B ))
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Annual Surface Annual Surface Temperature Temperature CChanges hanges ((A1B A1B ))
2080 to 2099 minus 1980 to 1999
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Global dust deposition Global dust deposition
Jickells et al. (2005)
GEC goes beyond climate change
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• 2003
• Heat wave hits
Europe
• 30,000 people die
in Western EuropeobservationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2003
2040s
2060sT
emp
erat
ure
an
om
aly
(wrt
196
1-90
) °
C
GEC is more acute than everGEC is more acute than ever
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Main threat to a sustainable Main threat to a sustainable worldworld
• Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in second half of century
• Very likely increase in heatwaves • Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms
SST
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Case study: Summer heat wave Case study: Summer heat wave 20032003
Schär et al. 2004
Rebetez et al. 2006 August 2003
Precipitation Max. temperature
• Heat stress• Drought stress• Wildfires
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THANK YOU!
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Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies