Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals (CESF):

The Beginnings

Dick Larson

ESD Faculty Lunch

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

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Background

• Recommendation of Review Committee and of ESD Faculty Members via ESD Strategic Plan

• May be a way to transform doughnut into a muffin!

• Started on September 1

• This semester is one of designing the plan for the CESF – with your help!

• Suggested process of small group of dedicated faculty members create a White Paper as a Blue Print!

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From the

ESD Strategic Plan…..

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Definition of Engineering Systems

• Engineering Systems are– Technologically enabled Networks & Meta-systems which transform,

transport, exchange and regulate Mass, Energy and Information– Large-scale

• large number of interconnections and components

– Socio-technical aspects• social, political and economic aspects that influence them

– Nested complexity • within technical system and social/political system

– Dynamic• involving multiple time scales,uncertainty & lifecycle issues

– Likely to have emergent properties

• Examples are– Automobile Production Systems, Aerospace enterprise systems, Air and

Ground Transportation Systems, Global Communication Systems, the World Wide Web, the National electric power grid

These systems exist & have “messy complexity”

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Engineering Systems(@ the interface of Engineering, Management & Social Sciences)

ESD

Engineering

Social SciencesManagement

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ESD Strategic Thrusts: Foundations

• Develop Fundamental Principles and Foundations Of Engineering Systems Which Establish Engineering Systems as a New Field Of Study

• Engineering Systems Principles Will Differ From Engineering Science Principles

– Enterprise Level Perspective– Holistic Vs. Reductionist Approach– Macro Scale Vs. Micro Scale Design– Qualitative As Well As Quantitative Approaches, Context

Part of Engineering System Analysis– For example, the principles for design of large scale

complex critical networks where technical and social/organizational/political analyses are combined

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ESD Tactical Goals: Foundations

• Form a Research Center on Engineering Systems Foundations– Form an overarching faculty group to address fundamentals of ES. Develop faculty groups

in• System Architecture• Uncertainty mgmt• Lifecycle properties such as safety, sustainability, flexibility & including policy issues• Design & transformation of engineering enterprises including social and organizational context

– Use new knowledge gained to synthesize new ES– ESD should sponsor one or more RAs for innovative work on foundations– Center should interact in “ping pong” fashion with Application oriented Centers– Center should facilitate a network based communication of research among faculty, staff,

students– Center should establish an Editorial Board for developing the Book series

• Recruit several faculty to build up foundations in engineering enterprises & lifecycle properties

• Assume Leadership In Cooperative University Efforts Through Engineering Systems University Council -

– For example, organize periodic Conference on Foundations of Engineering Systems– Take leadership in professional societies such as INCOSE, INFORMS to advance

engineering system fundamentals

• Develop a Book Series or interdisciplinary journals & courses in five years on Fundamentals of Engineering Systems Utilizing Research Findings

– For example, look at specific ES systems from multiple perspectives– Export all courses to OCW

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Some Statements about CESF

• CESF's major focus will be research on the fundamentals and cross-cutting issues in Engineering Systems.

• CESF will focus on identifying and extracting fundamental concepts, methodologies and formalisms that will eventually define the new field called Engineering Systems.

• We hope that this center will establish Engineering Systems as a new and comprehensive approach to large scale engineering problems, a transformative approach that extends beyond the usual technocratic engineering concerns to consider broader societal concerns as well. ESD faculty are quite diverse, representing expertise in many social sciences as well as in virtually all major branches of engineering.

• This field looks at engineering design and analysis of large scale systems broadly, incorporating important aspects of the social sciences into more usual technical engineering considerations. The CESF will also examine the culture of engineering design, for instance in use of uncertainty; instead of the usual engineering approach to minimize risk due to uncertainty we also need to examine how to maximize opportunity created by uncertainty.

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Some ‘Products’

• An intellectual home to some ESD faculty members and students

• Doctoral graduates

• Sponsoring an Engineering Systems book series

• Sponsoring a bi-annual international symposium on Engineering Systems fundamentals

• Research papers

• Research projects

• Seminar speakers

• Impact, Impact, Impact

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Perhaps a New Emphasis

• Much of ESD has focused on ‘soft approaches to hard problems’

• Perhaps it is time at add ‘hard approaches to soft problems’!

– Health care (14% GDP)– Education (10% GDP)– Preparedness and response to ‘major events’

• If we can engineer dams, highways, airplanes, nuclear reactors, computers, and factories, why can’t we also help in the design of complex service systems?

– Services are over 75% of the USA economy, manufacturing is now about 17%

LINC Learning International Networks Consortium

is part of CESF, representing design of educational systems leveraging

technologies

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DISTANCE EDUCATION AND E-LEARNING

THE THIRD ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM OFLEARNING INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS CONSORTIUM

SPONSORED BY THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

OCTOBER 27 & 28, 2005

Some of the featured speakers include:

• Sisavanh Boupha – Department of Science and Technology, Laos• In-Joo Chin – Inha University, Korea• Royal Colle – Cornell University, U.S.A.• Peter Froehler – UNCTAD, Switzerland• Matthew Herren & Maciej Sudra – Eduvision, Kenya• Philip Hui – Living Knowledge Communities, Hong Kong• Feiyu Kang – Tsinghua Univ. School of Continuing Education, China• Carlos Delgado Kloos – Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain• Naveed Malik – Virtual University of Pakistan, Pakistan• Cliff Missen – WiderNet Project, Univ. of Iowa, U.S.A.• Sandy Pentland – MIT Media Lab, U.S.A.• Laura Ruiz Perez – Monterrey Tec Virtual University, Mexico• Sean Rowland – Hibernia College, Ireland• Nabil Sabry – Universite Francaise d’Egypte, Egypt• Jaime Sanchez – University of Chile, Chile• Milad Sebaaly – Universal Knowledge Solutions, United Arab Emirates• Honorio Silva – Pfizer Inc., U.S.A.• Douglas Wilde – Stanford University, U.S.A.

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Really Need to Add the Social Dimension

• ESD.032J Colossal Failures in Engineering Case studies of known "colossal failures" from different engineering disciplines. Includes the collapse of the World Trade Center, the Columbia space shuttle accident, and the meltdown at Chernobyl. Basic engineering principles are stressed with descriptions of how the project was supposed to work, what actually went wrong, and what has been done to prevent such failures from reoccurring.

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Really Need to Add the Social Dimension

• If this were truly ESD, it would also include failures identified long term by law of unintended consequences as applied to the social system in which the engineering system was imbedded. Examples:

– Ford’s Edsel, – Motorola’s Iridium Project,– New Coke, – Apple Newton and Apple Lisa, – Mammoth dense urban housing projects (St. Louis Pruitt-Igoe,

Boston Columbia Point, Chicago's Cabrini-Green and Robert Taylor Homes),

– Forced bussing to achieve racial balance in cities (technical part viewed an a linear programming transportation problem).

• Also, spectacular successes: mass production, electrification, interstate highway system, Internet.

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Technocratic Engineering FailureTacoma Narrows Bridge

AKA Galloping Gertie

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What is the Role of ‘Applications’ (Contextual Problems) in CESF Research?

• Our feeling is that the best theory comes from the most difficult (real) problems.

• So, most CESF research will be focused on real problems, with an eye towards generalizing the results to other contextual domains.

• CESF will not do on-campus ‘consulting projects’

• Nor is it a center for pure methodology development, devoid of context

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Typical CESF Research: Cross-cutting Application & Methodology

Application or Context

Method 1 Method 2

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If we are successful, the

professional communities of

both context and method should value our work.

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Professional Recognition

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Examples of Possible Research Areas

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Aggressive use of probability, diversity and non-uniformity:

• Belicheck, “4th and one.”

• Decision and policy errors inherent in considering a group or population as a single point (e.g., ‘mean’ or ‘stereotype’) rather than a diverse constellation of individuals.

• Darwinian evolution of complex systems, with natural selection, mutations and survival of the fittest.

• Non-equilibrium

• Over-booking

• Airline Boeing flower pedal example

• Revenue management (airlines, hotel, resorts, electricity, telecom);

• Multi-lane highways too (also time of day predictability – Golden Gate Bridge);

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System Architecture

• From Olivier de Weck: Role of System Architect

• The architect performs the most abstract, high level function in product development

• The architect is the driving force of the conceptual phase

• The architect– -Defines the boundaries and functions

– -Creates the Concept

– -Allocates functionality and defines interfaces and abstractions

– -The architect is not a generalist, but a specialist in simplifying complexity, resolving ambiguity and focusing creativity

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Fundamental Research on System Architecture

• Borrowed from Software Engineers: An architecture is a framework for the disciplined introduction of change. This is also a pretty good definition of design. The difference between the two is that design, as we commonly use the word, applies to a single product, while architecture applies to a family of products.

• Emerging research area: evolutionary, robust, resilient, organically growing architectures. Linkages to software Systems Architectures. These features need to be considered for systems that are evolving social systems, like most service systems.

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Table 1. “Richter Scale” for Extent of Major Events

Number of PersonsAffected

Richter Level Examples

1 010 1100 21000 3 9/11 or dirty bomb*

10,000 4 attack on nuclear power plant100,000 5 nuclear bomb1,000,000 6 multiple nuclear bombs; chemical or biological attack10,000,000 7 massive biological attack or avian flu pandemic* Figures apply only to persons immediately affected by dirty bomb; residual effects and environmental damage

would eventually affect millions

Some Possible Hot Topics

• Tipping points: Understanding them and identifying them in systems

• Law of unintended consequences

• Richter scale on major events

The Next Pandemic? Laurie Garrett Since it first emerged in 1997, avian influenza has become deadlier and more resilient. It has infected 109 people and killed 59 of them. If the virus becomes capable of human-to-human transmission and retains its extraordinary potency, humanity could face a pandemic unlike any ever witnessed.

Preparing for the Next Pandemic Michael T. Osterholm If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.

The Human-Animal Link William B. Karesh and Robert A. Cook Recent outbreaks of avian flu, SARS, the Ebola virus, and mad cow disease wreaked havoc on global trade and transport. They also all originated in animals. Humanity today is acutely vulnerable to diseases that start off in other species, yet our health care remains dangerously blinkered. It is time for a new, global approach.

Avian Flu Pandemic

Preparedness

Response

Richter 7

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Processes Going Forward

• Bi-weekly meetings of new CESF affiliated faculty members, leading to White Paper in December.

• Center for Innovation in Product Development (CIPD) and its assets will be merged with CESF in the upcoming months.

• How should the Center should operate relative to CTPID? Faculty Committee examining this.

• Meetings with ESD doctoral students.

• Two RA’s dedicated to helping us to identify promising research areas.

• Want at least two substantial research proposals submitted this year.

• Want arrangements with book publisher established, then editorial committee.

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We Welcome Your Participation!

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To Help Create the New CESF!