CDM and Transportation CDM and Transportation COP-9COP-9

December 2003December 2003

Mauricio HurtadoMauricio Hurtado

Climate Change, Foreign Affairs Ministry, ChileClimate Change, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Chile

Jodi BrowneJodi Browne

Climate Change & Energy, IISDClimate Change & Energy, IISD

Eduardo SanhuezaEduardo Sanhueza

Principle - CC&D, alternative member EBPrinciple - CC&D, alternative member EB

Franz Tattenbach Franz Tattenbach

FUNDECOR, Costa Rica, Vice-chair of EB and Meth PanelFUNDECOR, Costa Rica, Vice-chair of EB and Meth Panel

Transport and Climate ChangeTransport and Climate Change

The transport sector is responsible for The transport sector is responsible for ~~ 25% of 25% of CO2 emissions worldwide, and this contribution CO2 emissions worldwide, and this contribution is increasingis increasing

Key factorsKey factors Travel activity (vehicle kilometers traveled, ton-Travel activity (vehicle kilometers traveled, ton-

kilometers)kilometers)

Mode splitMode split

Vehicle energy intensity (efficiency, loading)Vehicle energy intensity (efficiency, loading)

Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)

Transport & Climate ChangeTransport & Climate Change

The rate of The rate of increase of CO2 increase of CO2 emissions from emissions from transport is much transport is much higher in higher in developing developing countries than countries than developed developed countries.countries.

Developing country growth = 3.2% per yearDeveloping country growth = 3.2% per yearDeveloped country growth = 1% per yearDeveloped country growth = 1% per year

(World Energy Outlook, 2001)

CO2 Emissions From Transport

Sperling & Salon, 2002

Transport & CDMTransport & CDM

Of the Of the 80 projects currently in the CDM pipeline 80 projects currently in the CDM pipeline only 5 are transportation…of those, only 5 are transportation…of those,

none address travel demandnone address travel demand

CDM represents a crucial opportunity to develop CDM represents a crucial opportunity to develop a sustainable transportation sector e.g. Chilea sustainable transportation sector e.g. Chile

- increased funding flows - increased funding flows

- enhanced capacity - enhanced capacity

- expanded technology- expanded technology

Energy Sector GHG Emissions 1998

Commercial9%

Electricity34%

Manufacturing23%

Transport33%

Agricultural1%

In Chile, In Chile, transportation transportation represents 2represents 2ndnd largest source of largest source of GHG emissions GHG emissions in the energy in the energy sector - sector - approximately approximately 33%33%

Transport Emissions in ChileTransport Emissions in Chile

Buses10%

Heavy Trucks

22%

Airplanes9%

Cars & Light

Trucks36%

Ships13%

Taxis10%

Growth in Travel ‘Drives’ GHGsGrowth in Travel ‘Drives’ GHGs

GHGs from Passenger Cars in Chile: 2000 - 2020(Based on Pew Center Report)

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th (

2000

= 1

)

Vehicle Kilometers

Total GHGs

GHG Emissions Rate

Transport & CDM Project: ChileTransport & CDM Project: Chile

Project Partners: IISD, CCAP, CC&D, CGTSProject Partners: IISD, CCAP, CC&D, CGTS Funded by Canadian International Development Agency Funded by Canadian International Development Agency

(CIDA)(CIDA) Explore the potential to reduce GHGs and promote Explore the potential to reduce GHGs and promote

transportation CDM projects in Chiletransportation CDM projects in Chile

Project GoalProject Goal To be of technical assistance to Chileans to reduce GHG To be of technical assistance to Chileans to reduce GHG

emissions and promote involvement in the CDM, specifically emissions and promote involvement in the CDM, specifically in the transportation sectorin the transportation sector

Potential for replicationPotential for replication Help establish precedent for assessing transportation CDM Help establish precedent for assessing transportation CDM

projectsprojects

1) 1) Area 10Area 10:: Technology switch of buses within downtown Technology switch of buses within downtown area of Santiagoarea of Santiago

2) 2) Bike InfrastructureBike Infrastructure: : Developing bike lanes, storage, Developing bike lanes, storage, facilitiesfacilities

3) 3) Location EfficiencyLocation Efficiency:: Concentrating mixed-use Concentrating mixed-use developments around metro stationsdevelopments around metro stations

Possible CDM projects currently being examined…

Area 10: Technology switchingArea 10: Technology switching

Santiago: new design for public transportSantiago: new design for public transport Segregated routes for articulated buses (Min Segregated routes for articulated buses (Min

EURO3)EURO3) Feeding areas for buses of lower capacity Feeding areas for buses of lower capacity

(progressive switch from EURO1,2,3)(progressive switch from EURO1,2,3)

Exploring potential for CDM to implement hybrid Exploring potential for CDM to implement hybrid diesel-electric buses in the feeding areasdiesel-electric buses in the feeding areas

Demonstration: Area 10 (downtown core = 34 buses)Demonstration: Area 10 (downtown core = 34 buses)

Area 10: Technology switchingArea 10: Technology switching Methodological questions…Methodological questions…

• Set baseline as Set baseline as currentcurrent or or marginalmarginal technology? technology?

• Monitoring: Monitoring:

Fuel based (sales)?...ORFuel based (sales)?...OR

Distance based (calculate Distance based (calculate fuel use from VKT & fuel use from VKT & efficiency)?efficiency)?

What to do with crediting for a program…over a number of years – What to do with crediting for a program…over a number of years – incentive declines…incentive declines…

Because of interest to keep baseline stable…perverse incentives?

Bicycle InfrastructureBicycle Infrastructure Increase Increase non-motorized tripsnon-motorized trips in Santiago in Santiago

Introduction of further Introduction of further bicycle infrastructure (lanes)bicycle infrastructure (lanes)

MeasureMeasure the emissions reductions from increased travel by the emissions reductions from increased travel by bikes on a specific route (modeling, observation, etc.)bikes on a specific route (modeling, observation, etc.)

QuantifyQuantify those reductions and those reductions and develop as a CDM projectdevelop as a CDM project

Bicycle Infrastructure – ?’sBicycle Infrastructure – ?’s

Methodological questions…Methodological questions…

Compare project to current or future projected mode Compare project to current or future projected mode split?split?

What to do if data is not available for short (bike What to do if data is not available for short (bike appropriate) trips? appropriate) trips?

Monitoring: Monitoring:

Surveys? (determine mode choice without bikes)Surveys? (determine mode choice without bikes)

Counting? (what sampling frequency is sufficient?) Counting? (what sampling frequency is sufficient?)

Modeling?Modeling?

Location Efficiency - backgroundLocation Efficiency - background

Urban form can:Urban form can:- Reduce number of motorized tripsReduce number of motorized trips- Increase share of non-motorized tripsIncrease share of non-motorized trips- Reduce travel distances, increase vehicle occupancy Reduce travel distances, increase vehicle occupancy

ratesrates

Through:Through:

DENSITYDENSITY – – i.e. lot sizei.e. lot size DIVERSITYDIVERSITY – – mix of land uses & proximitymix of land uses & proximity

DESIGNDESIGN – – street layout, block design, parkingstreet layout, block design, parking

Policy initiatives aimed at impacting travel demand: Policy initiatives aimed at impacting travel demand:

Location-Efficient Mortgage (LEM) Location-Efficient Mortgage (LEM)

Policy Guidance on using land use measures to improve Policy Guidance on using land use measures to improve Air Quality (US EPA)Air Quality (US EPA)

‘‘Transit-Oriented Development’ (TOD) initiatives, such Transit-Oriented Development’ (TOD) initiatives, such as Hong Kong’s metro station concession program; US as Hong Kong’s metro station concession program; US programs (WMATA, BART, etc.)programs (WMATA, BART, etc.)

Other financial incentives, i.e., aimed at developersOther financial incentives, i.e., aimed at developers

Location Efficiency - examplesLocation Efficiency - examples

Location Efficiency: our projectLocation Efficiency: our project

Densification or “location efficient” development around Densification or “location efficient” development around

metro stations…metro stations…

- IdentifyIdentify specific real estate development opportunities specific real estate development opportunities- QuantifyQuantify the travel behavior impacts of those developments the travel behavior impacts of those developments- EstimateEstimate the net impacts on transportation greenhouse gas the net impacts on transportation greenhouse gas

emissions of the prospective developmentsemissions of the prospective developments- DetermineDetermine how to fit this within the CDM. how to fit this within the CDM.

- Supporting existent work looking at efficient dev’t (MINVU) or Supporting existent work looking at efficient dev’t (MINVU) or “neighborhood efficiency”“neighborhood efficiency”

Baseline and Additionality: Where would the developments have otherwise located? What would have been the travel characteristics and

subsequent emissions of those alternative locations? Over what time period can the emissions reductions be

realistically credited? To what degree are the reductions “additional” to business-

as-usual?

How can co-benefits (i.e., local air pollution reduction, other social benefits (costs)) be calculated and effectively incorporated into the methodology?

Location Efficiency - ?’sLocation Efficiency - ?’s

Location Efficiency - ?’sLocation Efficiency - ?’sMonitoring and verification: How can the emissions reductions be adequately monitored

and verified?

Could surveys be incorporated into the real estate projects to determine trip-making behavior (including all non-motorized trips)?

Could public transport ridership be monitored• Track VKT or mode split?• Surveys? Local traffic counts? Metro boardings?

Is it appropriate to use modeling results for current or projected data?

Subsidies - Urban renovation, historic preservation, low income housing

CDM could bringing additional funds to support subsidies How/if subsidies could be modified to fit as a CDM project?

Mechanisms to promote transit-oriented development; transport-efficiency subsidies (or mortgages), a fund in which a CDM investor could invest, others

How to develop these?; Who would be the “players” (Metro, Ministry of Planning, Banks, Municipalities).

Location Efficiency – ?sLocation Efficiency – ?s

Transport & Carbon PriceTransport & Carbon Price

At $5/tonne CO2…At $5/tonne CO2… removing a car from the removing a car from the road would be worth about road would be worth about $15 to $20/year$15 to $20/year

not sufficient incentive on its own not sufficient incentive on its own

added sweetener for otherwise locally added sweetener for otherwise locally beneficial projectsbeneficial projects

Discussion – key questionsDiscussion – key questions

How to compensate for impacts on own baseline? i.e. How to compensate for impacts on own baseline? i.e. disincentives?disincentives?

If transportation projects are not feasible under the If transportation projects are not feasible under the current CDM guidelines, is there a need for revised current CDM guidelines, is there a need for revised guidelines? If so, what type? How could these be guidelines? If so, what type? How could these be developed and introduced?developed and introduced?

Upcoming Events

UNFCCC Side Event: Wed, 10 Dec 1:00 p.m.- 3:00 p.m.

“Getting there: tackling transport emissions” Multi-stakeholder, high-level event on technical and lifestyle fixes as options for reversing the transport emissions trend. Moderated by Simon Upton.

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“CDM and Transportation: Challenges and Opportunities”

Santiago, Chile, Sept 2004

Int’l workshop on Transport & CDM issues & presentation of the conclusions of the IISD/CCAP/CC&D work

Thank you! FOR MORE INFORMATION...

Jodi Browne Jodi Browne Climate Change & EnergyClimate Change & Energy, , IISD IISD

Tel: +1 (613) 238-9821Tel: +1 (613) 238-9821

jbrowne@iisd.cajbrowne@iisd.ca

Steve WinkelmanSteve WinkelmanManager of Transportation, CCAP Manager of Transportation, CCAP

Tel: +1 (202) 408-9260Tel: +1 (202) 408-9260

swinkelman@ccap.orgswinkelman@ccap.org

Eduardo SanhuezaEduardo Sanhueza Director Director , , CC&DCC&D

Tel: +56 (2) 209-1770Tel: +56 (2) 209-1770

Email: J.Sanhueza@mi-mail.cl Email: J.Sanhueza@mi-mail.cl