Peter Kellner, President, YouGov

Countdown to the next general election

YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index

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YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index (monthy)YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index (3‐month rolling average)

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Labour Conservatives Ukip Liberal Democrats

Source: YouGov, 22 January 2014

The current position of the parties

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23%

34%38%

25%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Managing theeconomy

Improving livingstandards for people

like you

A Labourgovernment ledby Ed Miliband

A Conservativegovernment ledby DavidCameron

Source: YouGov, 9 October 2013

Which government do you think would be better for...

Douglas McWilliams, Executive Chairman, Cebrdmcwilliams@cebr.com

The importance of the consumer to the economy

Global economy to accelerate while inflationary pressures ease creating more benign external economic backdrop

• The world economy should accelerate in 2014

• The US to grow more quickly after heavy fiscal retrenchment in 2013

• Europe to grow if sluggishly• Asia to consolidate• Commodity prices to weaken cyclically• Energy prices to weaken both cyclically 

and structurally

‐3%‐2%‐1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

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Cebr Dec '13 IMF

World real GDP, annual percentage growth

• UK economy should build on its 2013 acceleration & disposable income squeeze to ease in 2014

• Pressure on government spending relaxed until after the election

• Business investment ramping up but trade performance not yet good enough to sustain long term growth

• So growth to slow in 2016 & beyond because of renewed fiscal squeeze & balance of payments impact

The UK to have its best years since 2007 in 2014 and 2015 –but how sustainable is the recovery & what are the risks?

UK real GDP, annual percentage change 

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Cebr (November) OBR (March)OBR (December)

Issues for discussion

• Will the Chinese slowdown be harder than we are currently forecasting?

• What are the knock‐on effects of US tapering?• Can the Middle East instability be contained?• How sustainable is the UK growth?• How quickly does the MPC need to tighten monetary policy• Is there an incipient housing bubble?• What is the follow through from UK growth into disposable 

incomes and living standards?• Would a change in government after the election 

fundamentally change economic policy?

Charles Davis, Associate Director, Cebrcdavis@cebr.com

YouGov data contains important economic measures

Consumer Confidence Index continues to plateau but has recorded sustained gains over the past year

YouGov/Cebr UK Consumer Confidence Index – scale from 0-200; 100 is neutral

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Headine Consumer Confidence Index (3 month average)

Consumer confidence index average since 2009

Estimated long run average consumer confidence index

It is housing market acceleration that has driven the overall rise in Consumer Confidence

YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Indicator – own home value change over past month & expected change over next 12 months; index 0-200; 100 is neutral

30405060708090100110120130140150160

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Own home value change over last month

Own home value change over last month ‐ average since 2009

Own home value expected change over next 12 months

But the labour market recovery is increasingly encouraging: consumers much less concerned about unemployment

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Increase less decrease

Net balance expecting unemployment to increase over next 12 months

Recovery isn’t yet translating into higher spending power but the rate of decline has eased notably

YouGov/Cebr Spare Cash availability indicator – change over past month; index 0-200; 100 is neutral; score beneath 100 implies decline, over 100 an increase

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Cash available for spending: Change over past month

Cash available for spending: Change over past month ‐ average since 2009

Forward guidance? Balance of more than 3 in 5 consumers now expect interest rates to increase

Net balance expecting interest rates to increase

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Increase less decrease

Stephen Harmston, Head of Syndicated Reports, YouGov

Who is benefitting from the economic upturn?

Using up to 100million data points to examine winners and losers in upturn

Profiling ‘Winners’ and ‘Losers’?

Economic tracking survey to identify people from households who are getting better off and ones worse. 

Connecting up to 160,000 data points for up to 420,000 panellists

Panel database, real time long tail data collected through social website, TV consumption via daily surveys, BrandIndex, daily economic tracking, and volunteered data from web searches.  For this study up to 160,000 data points for 20,000 panellists: 

How have we compared groups?

All groups have been compared against a weighted nationally representative sample.  

Using Z‐scores to make sense of large dataset

Statistic representing both how large a difference between two groups is, and how confident we are in that difference. Z‐scores are the number of standard deviations that the difference between two groups is away from 0.

Connecting our core data sets

Only 11.1m people in households expecting to be better offHousehold financial situation – expectations point to increase polarisation in the country, 100=neutral

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Household financial situation changeover last month

Household financial situationexpected change over next 12months

Current Month (last quarter of 2013)

• 25% worse = 15.8 million people• 67% no change = 42.7 million• 8% better =5.1 million

N=288,000

Expectation for 12  months (last quarter of 2013)

• 39% worse = 25.1million people • 43% no change =27.5 million people• 17% better=11.1 million people

A London and South East based recovery?Geographic Z‐scores from YouGov profiles – households in London much more likely to be expecting to be better off

People from households expecting to be worse offTop demographic differentiators (from 1,100+ profile data points)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

55+

State pension or casual worker/lowest grade

Left school at 16 or under

Retired

Voted Labour Party in 2010 General Election

Not working

No formal qualifications

Public sector employee

Newspaper readership  = 'red top'

Divorced

Z‐score

People from households expecting to get better offTop demographic differentiators

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

18‐34

Active on LinkedIn, Twitter and/or Facebook

Rent from private landlord

Working full time (30 or more hours per week)

Did not vote in 2010 General Election

University or CNAA higher degree (eg M.Sc, Ph.D)

Newspaper readership =  'broadsheet'

Professional/higher technical work (degree‐level)

Living as married

Voted Conservative Party in 2010 General Election

Z‐score

Long tail profile of activitiesExpect better vs Expect worse (from 70,000+ long tail data sets)

Expect better Z‐score

Pubs and clubs 6.1Restaurants and eateries 5.4Communicating with friends & family 4.8Theme parks 4.5Shopping malls/High street stores 4.3Going to restaurants and cafes 3.9Sleeping 3.7Spending time with friends 3.6Going to the cinema 3.4Cooking 3.4

Expect worse Z‐score

Looking after my pets 2.0Gardening 1.7DIY 1.3Museums 1.3Knitting 1.1Reading 1.1

Long tail profile of likes Expect better vs Expect worse 

Public figures: better Z‐score Public figures: worse Z‐scoreDavid Cameron 2.0 Ed Miliband 1.2Margaret Thatcher 1.5 Dennis Skinner 0.7Boris Johnson 1.4 Ed Balls 0.6Michael Portillo 1.0 Edward Snowden 0.5William Hague 0.9 Tom Watson 0.5Queen Elizabeth II 0.8 Glenda Jackson 0.5Warren Buffett 0.7 Yvette Cooper 0.4Karren Brady 0.7 Tony Benn 0.4George Osborne 0.7 Mo Mowlam 0.4Nick Clegg 0.7 John Smith 0.4

Columnists: better Z‐score Columnists: worse Z‐scoreFraser Nelson 0.3 Polly Toynbee 0.4Charlie Brooker 0.3 Sandi Toksvig 0.4Quentin Letts 0.2 Maureen Lipman 0.4Toby Young 0.2 Fiona Philips 0.4Benedict Brogan 0.2 Kevin Maguire 0.2

0.005952579Comedian: better Z‐score Comedian: worse Z‐scoreMonty Python 0.6 Ronnie Barker 0.9Michael McIntyre 0.6 Jo Brand 0.8John Laurie 0.5 Spike Milligan 0.8

Long tail profile of personality traitsExpect better vs Expect worse

Descriptors: better Z‐score Descriptors: worse Z‐scoreClever 2.9 Compassionate 1.4Analytical 1.5 Depressed 1.3A leader 1.2 Bighearted 0.8Confident 1.1 Considerate 0.7Impatient 1.1 Trustworthy 0.7Lazy 1.1 Good listener 0.6Control‐freaky 1.0 Intolerant 0.6Arrogant 1.0 Confrontational 0.6Procrastinating 0.9 Friendly 0.5Boring 0.8 Loving 0.5

Institutions trust: better Z‐score Institutions trust: worse Z‐scoreBank of England 2.4 NHS 0.4United Nations 2.0House of Commons 2.0World Bank 1.8

0.005952579Institutions do not trust: better Z‐score Institutions do not trust: worse Z‐score

House of Lords 2.3House of Commons 2.0Bank of England 2.0Metropolitan Police 1.8

TV ProgrammesExpect to be better off vs worse off: likely to have watched and unlikely to have watched  (from 2,500+ programmes)

‐16.0

‐14.0

‐12.0

‐10.0

‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

20 brands more likely to be customer ofExpect better compared to expect worse:  from 850+ brands on BrandIndex

Better (+ve Z‐scores) Worse (‐ve Z‐scores)London Underground 6.3First Capital Connect 4.6Netflix 4.4Starbucks 4.2First Great Western 4.1British Airways 3.8Apple 3.8Nando's 3.7National Rail 3.7NatWest 3.7Pret A Manger 3.4Waitrose 3.3Skype 3.2National Express 3.2iTunes 3.1New Look 3.1Southern Trains 3.1Virgin Trains 3.1Domino's Pizza 3.0flybe.com 3.0

Iceland 4.0Brewer's Fayre 3.8LG 3.8Bhs 3.7Dunelm Mill 3.5Wilkinson 3.5Matalan 3.4Lynx 3.1Epson 3.0Superdrug 2.8Virgin Mobile 2.8Ford 2.8Parcel Force 2.7Vauxhall 2.6Advocaat 2.5Alcatel 2.5Donnay 2.5Freeview 2.4Nokia 2.4

20 brands more likely to have a positive impression ofExpect better  compared to expect worse :  from 850+ brands on BrandIndex

Better (+ve Z‐scores) Worse (‐ve Z‐scores)

Lovefilm 7Android 7H&M 7Netflix 7French Connection 6iTunes 6Domino's Pizza 6HTC 6Eat. 6Converse 6La Senza 6Apple iPhone 5Spotify 5Nando's 5PizzaExpress 5British Airways 5Asics 5Zara 5Oasis 5Footlocker 5

Toshiba 5Brewer's Fayre 5Dunelm Mill 5Wilkinson 5Aldi 5Iceland 5Carpet Right 4Lidl 4Post Office 4Bhs 4Wickes 4Morrisons 3Bang & Olufsen 3Matalan 3Sanex 3Imperial Leather 3Argos 3Primark 3Greggs 3Macleans 3

Internet searches reinforce pictureFrom panellists volunteering to track internet searchers (from top 500 search terms)

Pro Better % Pro Worse %youtube 20 facebook 19amazon 19 youtube 16

ebay 17 amazon 14google 14 asda 12argos 14 paypal 12

facebook 14 argos 12hotmail 11 sainsburys 10

google maps 11 hotmail 10tesco 11 google 9.5

post office 9.4 tesco 8.8daily mail 7.8 national lottery 8.8

marks and spencer 7.8 ebay 8.8maps 7.8 tesco direct 8.2

you tube 7.8 Happy Holidays 7.5john lewis 7.8 ebay uk 6.8bbc news 7.8 john lewis 6.1

yahoo 7.8 morrisons 5.4asda 7.8 boots 5.4

yahoo mail 7.8 amazon uk 5.4santander 6.3 daily mail 5.4sainsburys 6.3 gumtree 4.8

ebay uk 6.3 google maps 4.8rightmove 6.3 bbc 4.8

currys 6.3 marks and spencer 4.8new year's eve 2013 6.3 facebook login 4.8

national rail 6.3 yahoo mail 4.1Saint Andrew's day 6.3 yougov 4.1

postcode finder 6.3 just eat 4.1gmail 6.3 iceland 4.1hsbc 6.3 new year's eve 2013 4.1

Conclusion: The difference is demographic, attitudinal and behavioural

Better

• London or South East based

• Trust the Establishment

• Employed in senior positions

• Politically conservative/centrist

• Clever and analytical

• Pubs, clubs, restaurants

• Brands offering convenience

• Search for ‘Rightmove’

• Family Guy, Big Bang Theory

Worse

• Regional

• Anti‐Establishment

• Benefits, retired or low income jobs

• Politically left

• Compassionate and depressed 

• Pets, garden, DIY

• Brands offering value

• Search for ‘National Lottery’

• Coronation Street, Emmerdale

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