carolyn fisher, fcf ddm model updated

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2010 2011 Revenue Loans and Leases 225 197 Growth % -12% Securities 43 34 Growth % -21% Total interest income 268 232 Interest expense Deposits 50 33 Short-term borrowing 2 1 Long-term debt 10 7 Total interest expense 62 42 Interest Expense Change -32% Net interest income 207 190 Margin Noninterest revenue Commissions and fees 51 40 Lending and deposit-related fees 17 15 Securities gains (losses) 2 2 Credit card income 10 12 Other income -31 -11 Total noninterest revenue 49 58 Noninterest Revenue Growth 18% Total net revenue 256 248 Provisions for credit losses 62 56 Noninterest expenses Compensation and benefits 85 85 Occupancy expense 14 14 Tech, communication and equipment 13 13 Professional and outside services 4 5 Advertising and marketing Amortization of intangibles 2 2 Other special charges 9 9 Other expenses 44 49 Total noninterest expenses 171 177 4% Income (loss) from cont ops before taxes 23 15 FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP (FCF) INCOME STATEMENT

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Page 1: Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

2010 2011Revenue

LoansandLeases 225 197Growth% -12%Securities 43 34Growth% -21%

Totalinterestincome 268 232InterestexpenseDeposits 50 33Short-termborrowing 2 1Long-termdebt 10 7

Totalinterestexpense 62 42InterestExpenseChange -32%

Netinterestincome 207 190Margin

NoninterestrevenueCommissionsandfees 51 40Lendinganddeposit-relatedfees 17 15Securitiesgains(losses) 2 2Creditcardincome 10 12Otherincome -31 -11

Totalnoninterestrevenue 49 58NoninterestRevenueGrowth 18%

Totalnetrevenue 256 248Provisionsforcreditlosses 62 56

NoninterestexpensesCompensationandbenefits 85 85Occupancyexpense 14 14Tech,communicationandequipment 13 13Professionalandoutsideservices 4 5AdvertisingandmarketingAmortizationofintangibles 2 2Otherspecialcharges 9 9Otherexpenses 44 49

Totalnoninterestexpenses 171 1774%

Income(loss)fromcontopsbeforetaxes 23 15

FIRSTCOMMONWEALTHFINANCIALCORP(FCF)INCOMESTATEMENT

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Provision(benefit)fortaxes 0 0EffectiveTaxRate 0% 0%

Netincome 23 159% 6%

Netincomeavailabletocommonshareholders 23 15

EarningspershareDiluted 0.25 0.15EPSGrowth -40%

WeightedaveragesharesoutstandingDiluted 93 105

DividenedDiscountModelNetIncomepershare 0.25 0.15Dividends 0.05 0.12%Growth 130%

ROE 3.07% 1.98%

**FiscalyearendsinDecember.USDinmillionsexceptpersharedata.

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

187 176 171 175 182 189 198-5% -6% -3% 2% 4% 4% 5%32 30 29 30 30 31 32-6% -6% -3% 2% 2% 3% 3%219 206 202 204 212 220 230

21 16 12 7 15 26 351 1 2 5 4 4 38 5 4 3 3 2 130 22 19 16 22 32 39

-29% -27% -14% -18% 42% 44% 23%

189 185 184 188 190 189 191

40 42 4215 16 160 -1 113 14 14-4 -10 -1265 60 61 61 65 70 73

12% -8% 2% 1% 6% 7% 4%

254 245 245 250 255 258 26421 19 11 15 15 13 13

86 86 87 8913 14 13 1412 15 18 114 4 4 4

3 51 1 1 17 6 1052 43 35 32177 169 171 164 167 170 1740% -5% 1% -4% 2% 2% 2%

56 57 62 71 73 75 77

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15 15 18 21 22 22 2327% 26% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30%42 41 44 50 51 52 54

17% 17% 18% 20%

42 41 44 50 51 52 54

0.4 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63167% 7% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3%

104 97 93 89 86 86 86

0.40 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.630.18 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.3548% 24% 23% 0% 0% 17% 7%

5.63% 5.76% 6.15% 6.97% 6.13% 6.25% 6.37%

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FIRSTCOMMONWEALTHFINANCIALCORP 2010 2011 2012DIVIDENDDISCOUNTMODELNetIncomepershare 0.25 0.15 0.4%Growth -40% 167%Dividends 0.05 0.12 0.18%Growth 130.3% 47.6%PayoutRatio 21.5% 82.5% 45.7%PVofDividendsTerminalValue

DDMVALUATIONPVofdividends 0.95PVofTerminalValue 6.96Targetprice 7.92Current 8.92Upside -11%*indollars

BearBaseBull

WeightedaveragesharesoutstandingDiluted 93 105 104

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.637% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3%0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.35

24.1% 23.3% 0.1% -0.3% 16.7% 7.1%52.7% 58.2% 49.9% 47.1% 53.4% 55.8%

0.28 0.33 0.355.20

P/EMULTIPLEVALUTATION P/BMULTIPLEVALUTATIONTVofP/E 10.63 TVofP/B 1033.16PVofTV 14.23 PVofTV 943.14SumofPVofDiv. 0.95 PerShare 10.97TargetPrice 15.18 TargetPrice 11.92Current 8.92 Current 8.92Upside 70% Upside 34%

ImpliedP/B ImpliedP/E Price Upside1 15 10 15%

1.2 16 11 25%1.3 17 12 31%

97 93 89 86 86 86

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ASSUMPTIONSCostofEquity 10.20%TerminalDividendGrowthRate 3.49%JustifiedP/B 1.3JustifiedP/E 17

FINALDDMVAL 33%P/BVAL 33%P/EVAL 33%Intrinsic 12Current 8.92Upside 31%

Page 8: Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

P/E P/B NMIFCF 16.0 1.08 3.2%HTLF 10.4 1.21 3.7%WIBC 12.8 1.5 3.7%LKFN 16.6 1.9 3.1%HAFC 12.6 1.4 3.8%CHCO 15.0 1.67 3.6%STBA 12.4 1.11 3.7%Industry 13.7 1.2 3%

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

FCF HTLF WIBC LKFN HAFC

P/E P/B

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0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

HAFC CHCO STBA Industry

NMI

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2010 2011Assets

Cashandduefrombanks 70 75Depositswithbanks 0 4Debtsecurities 1017 1183Loans 4218 4057Allowanceforloanlosses -71 -61Netloans 4147 3996Premisesandequipment 67 67Goodwill 160 160Otherintangibleassets 5 4Otherassets 347 354

Totalassets 5813 5841%Growth 0.5%

Liabilitiesandstockholders'equityLiabilities

Deposits 4618 4505Short-termborrowing 188 313Long-termdebt 204 207Otherliabilities 53 58

Totalliabilities 5063 5083%Growth 0.4%

Stockholders'equityCommonstock 106 106Additionalpaid-incapital 366 366Retainedearnings 291 294Treasurystock -8 -7Accumulatedothercomprehensiveincome -2 2

Totalstockholders'equity 750 759SharesOutstanding 93 105StockholdersEquityPerShare 8.06 7.23

Totalliabilitiesandstockholders'equity 5813 5841

TangibleStockholdersEquity(**nopreferedstock) 585 595%Growth 2%TangibleSEpershare 6.29 5.67**FiscalyearendsinDecember.USDinmillionsexceptpersharedata.

FIRSTCOMMONWEALTHFINANCIALCORP(FCF)BALANCESHEET

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

99 74 72 674 3 2 3

1200 1354 1354 9504205 4284 4460 4684-67 -54 -52 -51

4138 4230 4408 462469 68 65160 160 161 1662 1 2

324 325 296 3595995 6215 6360 6567 6729 6896 70672.6% 3.7% 2.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

4558 4604 4316 4196356 627 1106 1511280 217 162 8155 56 61 59

5249 5503 5644 5847 6018 6195 63763.3% 4.8% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

106 106 106365 365 366316 335 353-42 -73 -1041 -21 -4

746 712 716 720 746 771 795104 97 93 89 86 86 867.17 7.34 7.70 8.05 8.68 8.96 9.245995 6215 6360 6567

584 551 553 554 746 771 795-2% -6% 0% 0% 35% 3% 3%5.62 5.68 5.95 6.20 8.68 8.96 9.24

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2010 2011CashFlowsFromOperatingActivitiesNetincome 23 15

Provisionforcreditlosses 62 56Depreciation&amortization 11 9Depreciation/AmortizationofOverallRevenue 3% 3%Deferredtax(benefit)expense -5 -1Investments(gains)losses 9 10Receivable 4 1Prepaidexpenses 7 5Payables 2 -5Accruedliabilities -1 -1Interestpayable -1 -1Incometaxespayable 2 -5Otherassetsandliabilities 4 8Otheroperatingactivities -5 -6

Netcashprovidedbyoperatingactivities 111 84CashFlowsFromInvestingActivitiesSales/maturityofinvestments 591 557Purchasesofinvestments -387 -724Changesinloans,net 335 62AcquisitionsanddispositionsProperty,andequipments,net -5 -8Otherinvestingactivities 9 33

Netcashusedforinvestingactivities 543 -80

CashFlowsFromFinancingActivitiesChangeindeposits 82 -113Changeinfederalfundspurchased -92 62Changeinshort-termborrowing -679 62Long-termdebtissued 50 30Long-termdebtrepayment -117 -25Commonstockissued 88 0Repurchasesoftreasurystock 0 0Cashdividendspaid -5 -13Otherfinancingactivities 0 0

Netcashprovidedby(usedfor)financingactivities -673 4Netchangeincash -20 9

Cashatbeginningofperiod 90 70Cashatendofperiod 70 78

FIRSTCOMMONWEALTHFINANCIALCORP(FCF)StatementofCASHFLOW

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**FiscalyearendsinDecember.USDinmillionsexceptpersharedata.

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

42 41 44 5021 19 11 158 11 14 8 14 16 18

3% 4% 5% 3% 5% 6% 6%3 13 52 0 33 1 1

96 -1 2-1 -1 0-1 -1 06 -1 2

-11 2 -11 -8 179 86 82

577 359 376-605 -540 -340-162 -123 -192

-3-10 -10 -1129 5 6

-171 -307 -164

53 46 -288-41 -18 -785 288 486100 5-25 -65 -60 -80 -389 -407 -4261 0 0

-36 -33 -31-19 -22 -26 -25 -24 -28 -300 0 0

117 196 7925 -26 -378 103 77103 77 75

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Page 17: Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

2011 %TotalCommercial,financial,agriculturalandother 996,739 25%Realestateconstruction 76,564 2%Residentialrealestate 1,137,059 28%Commericalrealestate 1,267,432 31%Loanstoindividuals 565,849 14%Totalloans&leasesnetofunearnedincome 4,043,643

LoansandLeasesInterestIncome 197,000AverageInterestRate 4.87%

2011TotalSecurities 1,182,572TotalSecuritiesInterestIncome 34,000

AverageInterestRate 2.88%

2011TotalInterestBearingDeposits 3,724,307TotalInterestExpenseonDeposits 33,000

AverageInterestRate 0.89%

AverageInterestEarningAssets 8,640Interest-bearingdepositswithbanks 0% 40,459Tax-freeInvestmentsecurities 1% 1,248,689TaxableInvestmentSecurities 21% 4,553,634Loans,netofunearnedincome 78% 5,851,422

Commercial,financial,agriculturalandotherRealestateconstructionResidentialrealestateCommericalrealestateLoanstoindividuals

FIRSTCOMMONWEALTHFINANCIALCORPLOANMIX

0%1%21%

78%

Interest-bearing deposits with banksTax-free Investment securities

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securities

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%Growth 2012 %Total %Growth 2013 %Total1,019,822 24% 2% 1,021,056 24%

87,438 2% 14% 93,289 2%1,241,565 30% 9% 1,262,718 29%1,273,661 30% 0% 1,296,472 30%582,218 14% 3% 610,298 14%

4,204,704 4% 4,283,833

187,000 -5% 176,0004.45% 4.11%

2012 20131,199,531 1.43% 1,353,809

32,000 30,0002.67% 2.22%

2012 20133,674,612 -1.33% 3,691,502

21,000 16,0000.57% 0.43%

Commercial,financial,agriculturalandotherRealestateconstructionResidentialrealestateCommericalrealestateLoanstoindividuals

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Page 21: Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

%Growth 2014 %Total %Growth 2015 %Total0% 1,052,109 24% 3% 1,150,906 25%7% 120,785 3% 29% 220,736 5%2% 1,226,344 28% -3% 1,224,465 26%2% 1,405,256 32% 8% 1,479,000 32%5% 652,814 15% 7% 608,643 13%2% 4,457,308 4% 4,683,750

-6% 171,000 -3% 175,0003.84% 3.74%

2014 201512.86% 1,354,364 0.04% 1,333,836

29,000 30,0002.14% 2.25%

2014 20150.46% 3,326,484 -10% 3,079,205

12,000 7,0000.36% 0.23%

Commercial,financial,agriculturalandotherRealestateconstructionResidentialrealestateCommericalrealestateLoanstoindividuals

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%Growth 2016 %Total %Growth 20179% 1,199,062 25% 4% 1,265,47483% 308,233 6% 40% 464,2650% 1,219,036 25% 0% 1,204,9075% 1,555,067 32% 5% 1,652,423-7% 618,834 13% 2% 622,7015% 4,855,670 4% 5,062,851

2% 193,563 10.61% 217,0103.99% 4.29%

2016 2017-1.5% 1,384,463 4% 1,437,012

34,600 40,2242.50% 2.80%

2016 2017-7% 3,171,581 3% 3,330,160

15,139 25,8860.48% 0.78%

2015Commercial,financial,agriculturalandother25%Realestateconstruction 5%Residentialrealestate 26%Commericalrealestate 32%Loanstoindividuals 13%

32%

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%Total %Growth 2018 %Total %Growth25% 6% 1,346,098 25% 6%9% 51% 732,009 14% 58%24% -1% 1,197,855 23% -1%33% 6% 1,744,141 33% 6%12% 1% 613,429 12% -1%

4% 5,282,537 4%

12.11% 239,633 10.42%4.54%

20184% 1,491,555 4%

45,4803.05%

20185% 3,596,573 8%

35,1500.98%

24%

5%

13%Commercial, financial, agricultural and other

Real estate construction

Residential real estate

Page 26: Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

26%

Commerical real estate

Loans to individuals

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2011 2012 2013 2014Charge-offsasa%oftotalloans 1.51% 0.35% 0.76% 0.31%

Income Statement Highlights2014 Q4 2015 Q4 % ChangeNet Interest Margin 3.27% 3.28% 0.3%ROA 0.71% 0.78% 10%ROE 6.18% 6.98% 13%Net Income 44,453 50,143 13%Diluted Earnings per Share 0.48 0.56 17%

KeyRatios 2011 2012 2013 2014Returnonaverageassets 0.27 0.71 0.68 0.71Returnonaverageequity 2 5.46 5.7 6.18Netloanstodepositsratio 88.7 90.78 91.87 102.08Dividendspershareasa%ofnewincomepershare82.26 44.57 53.49 58.33Averageequitytoavergaeassetsratio 13.133 12.95 11.87 11.45

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20150.36%

20150.786.98

110.4250

11.23

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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2015

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Company First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (FCF) Analyst Name Carrie FisherFYE = 12/31 ($in millions) 3 Yr 5 Yr Common Sized

Income Statement Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Growth Growth 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Total Interest Income 293 268 232 219 206 202 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Interest Income Growth -8.5% -13.7% -5.4% -5.8% -2.0% -4.4% -7.2%Total Interest Expense 87 62 42 30 22 19 29.6% 23.0% 18.0% 13.8% 10.5% 9.2%Net Interest Income 207 207 190 189 185 184 70.4% 77.0% 82.0% 86.2% 89.5% 90.8%Provision for Loan Losses 101 62 56 21 19 11 34.3% 22.9% 24.1% 9.4% 9.3% 5.5%Net Interest Income After Provision 106 145 134 168 165 172 36.1% 54.1% 57.9% 76.9% 80.2% 85.3% Net Interest Income Growth 37.1% -7.7% 25.6% -1.8% 4.3% 8.8% 10.2%Non Interest Income 19 49 58 65 60 61 6.6% 18.3% 24.9% 29.9% 29.2% 30.1%Non Interest Expense 171 171 177 177 169 171 58.4% 63.8% 76.3% 80.9% 81.8% 84.7%Earnings Before Tax -46 23 15 57 57 62 -15.6% 8.7% 6.5% 25.8% 27.5% 30.7% Pre-Tax Profit Growth -150.6% -35.0% 275.1% 0.3% 9.5% 60.3% -206.3%Taxes -26 0 0 15 15 18 -8.8% 0.1% -0.2% 6.7% 7.4% 8.7% Tax Rate 1% 26% 27% 28%Net Income from Continuing Operations -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Profit Growth -214.5% -32.7% 171.1% -1.1% 7.2% 42.2% -217.2%Extraordinary Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Net Income -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0%Preferred Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Net Income Attributable to Common -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0%Earnings Per Share (diluted) -0.24 0.25 0.15 0.40 0.43 0.48 EPS Growth -204.2% -40.0% 166.7% 7.5% 11.6% 47.4% -214.9% `

Dividend Per Share (diluted) 0.18 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.28 DPS Growth -66.7% 100.0% 50.0% 27.8% 21.7% 32.6% 9.2% Dividend Payout -75.0% 24.0% 80.0% 45.0% 53.5% 58.3%# diluted shares (in millions) 84.6 93.2 104.7 103.9 97.0 93.1Balance Sheet Summary (Based on total assets)Cash 89 70 75 99 74 72 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1%Investment Securities 1,222 1,017 1,183 1,200 1,354 1,354 19.0% 17.5% 20.2% 20.0% 21.8% 21.3%Loans Held For Sale 0 0 13 0 0 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Loans-Commercial 1,208 914 997 1,020 1,021 1,052 18.7% 15.7% 17.1% 17.0% 16.4% 16.5%Loans-Commercial Real Estate 387 1,354 1,267 1,274 1,296 1,405 6.0% 23.3% 21.7% 21.2% 20.9% 22.1%Loans-Retail 557 561 566 582 610 653 8.6% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 10.3%Loans-Real Estate 1,209 1,127 1,137 1,242 1,263 1,226 18.8% 19.4% 19.5% 20.7% 20.3% 19.3%Loans-Other 1,275 261 77 87 93 121 19.8% 4.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% Total Loans 4,637 4,218 4,044 4,205 4,284 4,457 71.9% 72.6% 69.2% 70.1% 68.9% 70.1%Allowance for Loan Losses 82 71 61 67 54 52 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% Net Loans 4,555 4,147 3,982 4,138 4,230 4,405 70.7% 71.3% 68.2% 69.0% 68.1% 69.3% Loan Growth -9.0% -4.0% 3.9% 2.2% 4.2% Allowance/Gross Loans 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2%Fixed Assets 71 67 67 69 68 65 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%Intangibles 167 165 164 162 161 163 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%Total Assets 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Deposits 4,536 4,618 4,505 4,558 4,604 4,316 70.4% 79.4% 77.1% 76.0% 74.1% 67.9%Fed Funds Purchased 1,678 105 41 128 43 42 26.0% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7%Debt 1,233 392 520 636 843 1,268 19.1% 6.7% 8.9% 10.6% 13.6% 19.9%Total Liabilities 5,807 5,063 5,083 5,249 5,503 5,644 90.1% 87.1% 87.0% 87.6% 88.5% 88.7%Shareholders Equity 639 750 759 746 712 716 9.9% 12.9% 13.0% 12.4% 11.5% 11.3%Total Liabilities and Equity 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Book Value per Share 7.55 8.04 7.24 7.18 7.34 7.69 Book Value Growth 6.5% -9.9% -0.9% 2.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.4%Cash Flow Summary (Based on revenue)Operating Cash Flow 57 111 84 79 86 82 -0.8% 7.5% 19.5% 41.3% 36.3% 35.9% 41.5% 40.6% OCF Growth 93.7% -24.1% -6.4% 8.9% -4.2%OCF/Net Income -2.9 4.8 5.4 1.9 2.1 1.8Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Depreciation+Amortization 10 11 9 8 11 14 3.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 5.4% 6.8%Acquisitions Purchased with Cash 0 0 0 0 0 3Dividends 30 5 13 19 22 26 DebtStock Repurchase 0 0 0 36 33 31 Maturities $ %Stock Issuance 0 88 0 1 0 0 2015 1,258.15 99%Net Charge-Offs (see notes) 72 72 66 15 32 13 2015 0.56 0%Non-Performing Loans (see notes) 149 117 112 108 59 55 2016 0.59 0%Ratios 2017 0.61 0%ROA -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2018 0.63 0%ROE -3.1% 3.1% 2.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.2% After 6.931 1% Profit Margin (NI/S) -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Total Debt 1,267.46 100.0% Asset Turnover (S/A) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Leverage (A/E) 10.1 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.7 8.9 Debt to Equity 9.1 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.9 Times Interest Earned -1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.0Loan/Deposit 1.00 0.90 0.88 0.91 0.92 1.02Charge-Off/Allowance 87.8% 101.0% 107.5% 21.7% 59.4% 25.7%NPL/Allowance 182.0% 164.9% 183.2% 160.1% 109.5% 106.1%Tangible Common Equity 471 584 595 584 550 553 Tier 1 Capital 365 397 400 421 440 459 Version 3 (1/15/2016)