carl telford - domotics tech and fragile people. international trends and development scenarios
TRANSCRIPT
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www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
Domotics Tech and Fragile PeopleInternational trends and development scenarios
© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
July 2013
Carl Telford, PhDProgram Manager, Scan
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Strategic Business Insights (SBI): Who we are and what we do
A spin-off from SRI International, SBI is headquartered in the heart of Silicon Valley.
Scanning: SBI’s Scan service helps users understand change in business, technology, and society.Technology analysis: SBI’s Explorer service provides a continuous look at 32 important technologies.Consulting: We help clients at the ‘fuzzy front end.’ With Shell, we developed scenario planning in the 1970s. We create roadmaps…
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Next-generation telecare• Health/wellness/emergency • Telecare: key part of healthcare• Private, bespoke systems• Systems on smartphones/tablets
Service robotics• Robot companions• Exoskeletons• Domestic task assistance
Home automation platforms• Security• Lighting and heating• Food preparation
We created a domotics roadmap with AREA
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Robert Thomas
Physics
ScenarioPlanning
Lucy Young
Egyptology
Bioscience Technologies
Peter Batty
Physics
Consumer Electronics
Carl Telford
Materials Eng.
“Scanning”
Kyle Whitman
English & Law
Future Homes & Connectivity
Rob Edmonds
Cognitive Sci.
Collaboration Tools & Learning
Gareth Lamb
Chemistry
Industrial Chemicals/Mats
Nanomaterials
Advanced Materials
SBI Function
Background
The SBI team: “What could happen in 10 to 15 years…?”
Alastair Cunningham
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External Environment:Opportunities and Threats
SBI research (Scan, Explorer, technology roadmaps)
Approximately 15 Clusters
5 Themes[“Development Scenarios”]
Presentation
Business Publications Scientific Journals Trade PublicationsPersonal Observations Consulting Work Web 2.0 MediaMagazines Interviews ConferencesNewspapers
Clustering
Refinement
Chaotic Unstructured
Focused Structured
Application of SBI’s Scan™ process
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The team did some data collection…We collected relevant data from Scan, Explorer, the
domotics roadmap, projects, personal interest…
Focus on technology and industry developments
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“Homes become App platforms”Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets,
touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.”
Signposts• Apple's increasing role in home
automation
• Microsoft buys id8 Group and working to turn surfaces into interactive displays
• Amateur Siri system ‘controls everything but the kitchen sink’
• Wonderwall: High-tech home-assisted living for the elderly
Photo: c/o Gizmag
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“Homes become App platforms”Premise: Enabling technologies such as tablets,
touchscreens, multimedia, sensors, and automation become pervasive, forming a platform for “Domotic Apps.”
Implications• Lessons from other sectors (e.g. automotive and TV)
suggest integrating cell phones as processors and controllers rather than replicating their functionality elsewhere is a successful approach.
• Home automation hardware could become standard; customization could occur via Apps
• Telecare? One could be able to download a fragile-person specific App (“Keep an Eye on Mum v3.1”) from an online store.
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“Home as a second brain”Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys
are, to take pills, or what a recipe is…
Signposts• Alzheimer’s: a huge global problem
• New technologies can augment fragile mental capabilities
• Enablers include the “internet of things” (IoT), smart surfaces, social alarms, cellular reminder services, augmented reality…
• Players such as Intel are developing 3D object recognition systems.
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“Home as a second brain”
Implications• Could prove a real boost for care of fragile people,
especially if they have mental-health problems (e.g. early-stage dementia / Alzheimer’s)
• Real balance is needed; while mental augmentation can help day-to-day living, ‘mental exercise’ is extremely important
• Privacy and security must be maintained.
Premise: Within 10-15 years, home automation and related technologies make it impossible to forget where your keys
are, to take pills, or what a recipe is…
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“Next-generation eating”Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become
automatic processes in domotic environments
Signposts• Food needs of an aging population
• Smart surfaces
• Food-safety & allergen sensing
• 3D printing of food…• … and many future-kitchen
concepts from IKEA, Electrolux, Whirlpool.
Photo: c/o TNO (Netherlands) / Popular Mechanics
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“Next-generation eating”
Implications• People have different dietary preferences and needs
• A balance is needed between providing assistance and providing healthy ‘mental exercise’
• Domotics technologies overlap with food safety, food preparation, and customization.
Premise: Food is getting smarter. Within 10-15 years, food preparation, diet customization, and food-safety become
automatic processes in domotic environments
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“Home robots… finally”Premise: The demands of an aging population drive
demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025Signposts • Healthcare systems are overstretched
• Microsoft: ageing population will drive domestic robots
• People prefer care robots to care homes?
• Robots already developed for food-preparation applications
• Spin-offs: Single-use domestic robots, security robots, physical assist, health-monitoring, telepresence... domotics.
Photo: c/o Robosoft
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“Home robots… finally”
Implications• Although progress has appeared slow, large players and
research laboratories are still developing robotics for care applications
• The overlap between domotics and robotics is an interesting and significant area
• Robotics can provide inspiration for domotics companies and developers… and perhaps some enabling technologies.
Premise: The demands of an aging population drive demand for domestic robots significantly by 2025
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“Japanese domotification”Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation,
robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead the world in the commercialization of domotics.
Signposts• Nippon TV will start its Elderly-
Monitoring Service • Japan’s advanced kitchen/food robots
(Suzumo, Motoman, Sharp)• Japanese ‘smart homes’ in New York• Japan to pick robots and automation
over immigrants?• Honda begins leasing its Walking
Assist Exoskeleton
Photo: c/o Honda
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“Japanese domotification”
Implications• Players face extensive competition from Japanese
companies; some are very large players (Honda, Motoman, Sharp)
• Looking at developments in Japan is extremely important—especially technology approaches for helping fragile people
• Potential collaborators and partners…?
Premise: Years of Japanese R&D in home automation, robotics all pay dividends. By 2025, Japanese players lead
the world in the commercialization of domotics.
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Concluding remarks• Domotics is a diverse and evolving technology area—
overlapping functions include entertainment, heating, lighting, physical assistance, eating, care & wellness…
• In terms of supporting fragile people, domotics could
- Reduce burden on national healthcare systems
- Help fragile people stay in their own homes
- Improve safety, security, and quality of life.
• Consumer-electronics companies are active in the domotics space; players should look out for competition
• Robotics and domotics technology areas have synergies; robotics R&D could spin-out into domotics applications
• Domotics should play a supporting, not cosseting role!
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Thank you very much for listening!
From all at SBI
Carl TelfordProgram Manager, ScanStrategic Business InsightsKnollys HouseCroydon CR0 6SRUnited Kingdom
[email protected]+44 208 256 1416
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com