carbon capture and storage (ccs) in modell deutschland ccs in germany – the future lies in...

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in „Modell Deutschland“

CCS in Germany – the „future“ lies in industry

Matthias Kopp, WWF Germany

28.10.2010

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne „Klimaschutz anpacken!“ Seite: 2

Context of Blueprint Germany

- Objective: Staying below 2°C warming compared to pre-industrial levels

- requires GHG-emissions reductions in 2050:

- by 60-80% globally- by up to 95% for

industrialised countries


Guidings questions:

• How does one achieve a 95 % reduction in GHG in a „ripe“ industrial society?- Achievable in a world „as we

know it“?- How far does technology

help?- What needs to be

fundamentally changed?- Does policy currently set the

right guidelines?

• Authors: Prognos and Öko-Institut


Outline of study mechanics - scenarios

-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mln

t C

O2e

vs

2005

Inno

vatio

n S

cena

rio

R

efer

ence

Sce

nario

Blu

eprin

t Ger

man

y

Reference ScenarioContinuation of recent energy and climate policies(beyond the business-as-usual)

Innovation ScenarioIndicative 95% reduction target, but:restrictions on CCS und biomass use

Blueprint GermanyBased on the Innovation Scenario, but: CCS for industrial processes and biofuel production as well as biofuel use for aviation and biogas use in industry

2050 vs 1990-45 … -50%

2050 vs 1990-86 … -87%

2050 vs 1990-94 … -95%

Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009


• Available: sufficient technologies and options will be available to reduce GHG emission by 95% compared to 1990 in a highly industrialized country

• Achievable: a 95% GHG emission reduction can be achieved– if the windows of opportunity are used (60% of reduction is related

to long-living capital stocks)– if the necessary innovation is triggered (60% of reduction depends

on innovative technologies and options)• Affordable: 0.3% of GDP on average, 0.6% at the maximum• All sectors must deliver significant emission reductions, key role

of power, industry and transport

However,• ‘Uncomfortable’ debates emerge: biofuels, CCS, central and

decentral lock-ins

The ‘Blueprint Germany‘ project at a glance


Full de-carbonization & more will be needed:- aggregated emissions need to be focussed on

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

t C

O2

e p

er

ca

p

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

bn

t C

O2

e f

rom

20

05

Other GHG - Per capita emissions

CO2 - Per capita emissions

Other GHG - Cumulative emissions from 2005

CO2 - Cumulative emissions from 2005

History Reference scenario Innovation scenario Blueprint Germany


… aggregated emissions need to be considered and timing of emissions reduction effects will be critically important


-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t C

O2-

Äq

u. g

gü

. 200

5

Andere

Landnutzung und Forsten

Landwirtschaft

Abfallwirtschaft

Industrieprozesse

Brennstoffwechsel (fossil)

Elektrifizierung

Erneuerbare Energien

Andere Energieeffizienz

Effizienz Gebäude

Effizienz Stromanwendung

NachfragenIn

nov

atio

ns-S

zena

rio

Re

fere

nz-S

zen

ario

Mod

ell D

euts

chla

nd

Energy efficiency

Emission reduction contributions delivered by components: 1) Energy efficiency, 2) renewables & 3) more

Renewables

Other measures

Add’l reductions: add’l biofuels/biogas, CCS


EE

RES

Other


Emission reduction contributions A fresh look on priorities is needed

-the appropriate timing of modernization is key for 60% of reductions if one reflects the long-living capital stocks – same is true for innovation


-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t C

O2-

Äq

u. g

gü

. 200

5

Less long-living capitral stock

Land-use (change) and forestry

Agriculture

Waste sector

Industrial processes

Fuel switch (fossil fuels)

Electrification

Renewables

Efficiency other applications

Efficiency buildings

Efficiency electric appliances

Demand patternsIn

nova

tion

Sce

nar

io

R

efe

renc

e S

cen

ario

Blu

epri

nt G

erm

any

60%


CCS – numbers:


Strategic planning and instrumentation

• All sectors – remaining energy near complete – CCS for remainder, process related industrial emissions

• Early uptake of CCS in biomass-conversion for net-sink capacities

• In remaining fossil fired capacities – from 2040 latest CCS retrofit required (this includes gas)

• CCS prioritised in industrial emissions !!! CCS law to reflect this strategic requirement/ demonstration plants needed

for robust evaluation of technology


Powersector specifics:

• No new coal fired power stations;• Rapid (asap) demonstration in pilot-sites• thinking about a „Deutscher CCS-Entwicklungsplan“ for risk

assessments and strategic planning of:- Potentials- Required infrastructure- Planning guidelines for sub-surface potentials (conflicts, competing uses,

prioritisation)• „Deutschen Energie-Infrastruktur-Umbauprogramm“ to initiate and

trigger off investment and commitments also for CO2 infrastructure (potentially combined with grid-planning for electricity)


Herzlicher Dank!

Matthias KoppWWF Deutschland

[email protected]+49 30 30 87 42 17


Rahmendaten

• Bis 2050 nimmt die Bevölkerung um 12,5% ab• BSP ist 2050 ca. 1/3 über dem Niveau von 2005 (CAGR 0,7%)• Industrie wächst um ca. 20% bis 2050 • Ölpreise in 2050: nominal 429 USD, real 210 USD• Biomasse Potenzial: 1200 PJ Primärenergie • Verkehrssektor

- Personenverkehr: vergleichbar mit heute - Güterverkehr steigt bis 2050 um 86%

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