capital t e wealth - alfaccurate advisorsfor 3qfy17, nifty 50 (ex-tata motors) reported revenue and...
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1
CapitalP
rote
ct
Cre
ate
Wealth
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“Rule No 1: Never lose moneyRule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.”
- Warren Buffet
2
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term,
it is a weighing machine”
- Ben Graham
“Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge
rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth”
- John Bogle
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We Protect Capital
3
• Unlevered portfolio• Continuous monitoring
of liquidity risk
Portfolio Liquidity
• Not averse to raise cash• Portfolio exposure increased
over a period
Staggered Approach
• Exposure limits to minimize riskso ≥ 50% in large cap USD1bn+o ≤ 10% in one stocko ≤ 30% in one sectoro ≤ 50% in the top 10 stockso Minimum investments in 30 stocks
• Tactically switching to cash from time to time
Exposure Limits
• Diversification across industries • Diversification across Mcap with
focus on liquidity• Flexible investment style – Growth
as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety
Investment Universe
A prudent risk management strategy is the core of our investment philosophy
• Sharp Price movement triggers review of stock
• Close eye on valuation with focus on Margin of Safety
Review Points
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We Create Wealth
3 Tenets to Equity investing Believe in ‘Time in the
Market’ rather than ‘Timing the market’
Growth as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety
Diversification across sectors helps us to play sectoral
over/underweight strategy
Long term investment approach
Flexible investment style
Sectoral diversification
3M Stock Selection Approach
Identify Size of Sector Opportunity
Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in the sector
Identify the stock for investment with
Reasonable Valuation
M: Market Size
M: Market Share
M: Margin of Safety
4
Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment returns
The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading players in the industry
The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin of Safety
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Leading To Multibagger Returns
5Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonusGain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as per price mentioned
Stock Purchase Date
Purchase Price (Rs)
Price(Rs)28-Feb-2017
Motherson Sumi* 28-Jan-10 41 244
Eicher Motors* 08-Aug-13 3343 15249
Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360
Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 16111
Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 5922
Ramco Cements 28-Mar-14 213 665
Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302
Siyaram Silk Mills 01-Aug-14 604 1686
Indo Count Industries* 19-Dec-14 297 785
Timken India 22-May-14 233 609
Bayer Cropscience* 05-May-14 1427 3547
Welspun India* 09-Jan-14 80 198
Atlas Copco* 28-Jun-10 1115 2750
Capital Trust 29-Jun-15 253 601
Mannapuram Finance* 16-Dec-15 29 69
ITD Cementation* 23-Feb-15 65 143
Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 514 1080
Gabriel India* 01-Aug-14 55 114
HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1390
HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1370
KNR Construction* 03-Dec-14 304 608
CARE* 25-Mar-14 732 1447
Infosys 26-Nov-09 537 1012
Cholamandalam Investments* 01-Mar-16 654 1185
3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 11164
Honeywell Automation 30-Jun-14 5790 9978
Alfa Laval India* 17-Nov-11 2246 3856
Capital First* 06-Nov-13 218 372
L&T 11-Apr-13 869 1469
Whirlpool Of India 02-Mar-16 644 1037
495%
356%
353%
304%
257%
212%
196%
179%
164%
161%
149%
148%
147%
138%
135%
120%
110%
108%
107%
105%
100%
98%
88%
81%
72%
72%
72%
71%
69%
61%
Gain (%)
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6
Earnings Matrix Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP
FY16 FY16 FY17E FY17E FY18E FY18E
EPS G(%) -1% 15% 8% 15% 12% 24%
ROE(%) 13% 17% 14% 18% 14% 20%
P/E(x) 21.5 19.9 27.0 17.7 19.4
P/BV(x) 2.8 2.7 4.7 2.5 4.0
AAA Portfolio Superior Earnings Growth
Source: AAA Research
13%15%
24%
-1%
8%
12%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
FY16 FY17E FY18E
EPS Growth(%)
AAA IOP Sensex
17%18%
20%
13% 14%
16%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY16 FY17E FY18E
ROE(%)
AAA IOP Sensex
Source: AAA Research Source: AAA Research
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Wealth Creation – A Case Study
7
Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5% USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at
~12% Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian
players in USA and Europe
Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years
Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over next 2-3 years
Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE
Indo Count Industries Ltd
India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020
Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E
At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading to significant headroom for growth
Market share of ~8% Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product to
improve its market share Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels Strong parentage means access to new technology to
offer world class products to Indian consumers
Expect significant growth in profitability backed by operating efficiency and higher volume growth
Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E –lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC which trades at average PE of >20x
M1
Mar
ket
size
M2
Mar
ket
Shar
eM
3M
argi
n o
f sa
fety
Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd
4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally
Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years and further expanding to 90 mn meters
Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed linen segment leading to improved operating margins
No major investment in backward integration – leading to highest ROE of 44% in the industry
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The Investment Process….
Stock Identification
Analysis & Decision making Process
Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing
Exiting & Realizing Value
• Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a universe of 450 companies• Filter approach – using variety of valuation parameters• Strong intermediary relationship
• Initial screening• Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence• Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval
• Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to decide optimum return potential • Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to evaluate Margin of Safety• Change in underlying assumptions of investment thesis
• Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term investment objective
• Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk management• Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen systems, controls and CG
in line with best practices
8
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9
Exit Strategy As Important As Entry Strategy
Fundamental Consistency check No. of BSE 500 Stocks
PAT growth 20%+ every year during FY06-FY15 0
Revenue growth of 10%+ every year with ROE15%+ during FY06-15
16
Exit Strategy
When target price of the stock is reached and the risk rewards seems unfavorable
When change in business fundamentals resulting in negative earnings expectations
When weightage of the stock is higher than the desired allocation
When the other stock has better risk-reward
Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs
01 Jan 2001
Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs
01 Jan 2011
ACC DLF
Ambuja Cement Hindalco
Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates
Castrol India JSPL
GSK Pharma Reliance Communication
Grasim Sterlite
HPCL Tata Power
MTNL
Novartis
Ranbaxy
Reliance Infra
Reliance Petro
Satyam
Zee
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Market Outlook
10
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Round Up – February 2017
11
In the USA, the macro data continues to surprise positively - the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in Feb17 from 56.0 inJan17 - the highest reading since Aug14 amid rising new orders and production. President Trump, reiterated his views onincreased spending on infrastructure & defence and encouraging domestic manufacturing to create more jobs locally. Macrodata from Euro area and China also continue to be neutral to positive.
From deflation scare to inflationary scenario: Until sometime back, the world was fearful of deflation, as the commodity priceshave stabilised, the inflationary trend is coming back, as is evident from:
• USA: CPI increased 2.5% YoY in Jan17 - highest in last 3 years;• Euro area: Consumer prices increased 1.8% YoY in Jan17 - highest since Feb13;• China: Inflation in Jan17 was the highest in last 2.5 years
A moderate inflation is good for global economic growth, which in turn is good for equity markets - as it improves nominal GDPand hence higher revenue and net profit.
Recent release of government data showed that the impact of demonetisation on the economy was less than anticipated as theQ3FY17 GDP grew by 7%, which was higher than the expected. The Nikkei PMI inched up to 50.7 in Feb17 Vs 50.4 inJan17 indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiments. RBI kept policy rate unchanged and shifted its stance fromAccommodative to Neutral. This was premised on second-round impact of sticky-to-rising core inflation, tighter global financialconditions, FX volatility and higher commodity prices. Improved global commodity prices has improved balance sheet of Metalcompanies in India, which is relief for lenders as banks have huge exposure to metal sector.
For 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal,Oil & Gas and Power sector reported healthy earnings growth while Consumption related stocks have been impacted more bydemonetisation. Post 'Demon', Indian economy is slowly coming back to its normalcy. This is reflected in volume growth of cars,CVs, cement and other macro economic indicators. Private sector capex is yet to witness any major recovery and Investment iscontinued to be led by government spending (mainly roads, railways, urban Infra).
Equity remains the most attractive asset class and we remain positive with 3years+ view. We believe any correction must beconsidered as an opportunity to invest.
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UDAY (Ujwal Distribution companies (DISCOMs) Assurance Yojana) financial turnaround and revival package for DISCOMS via improving efficiency, reducing cost, and enforcing discipline
Bankruptcy Bill and Indradhanush to improve flow of capital and recapitalise public sector banks
Auction-based allocation of natural resources (e.g., coal)
Goods and Services Tax (GST) to streamline and simplify the national tax system
Direct Benefits Transfer (through the Jan Dhan–Aadhaar–mobile trinity) to promote direct transfers of financial benefits to beneficiaries’ bank accounts
Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (Housing for All by 2022)
India – Ongoing Reforms…
12
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…that will enable faster and better economic growth
13
Source: AAA Research
2.3 2.4 2.22.8
3.33.9
4.6
7.6
2 2.2 2.23
3.64.5
5.4
9.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Gross NPA (%)
All Banks Public Sector Banks
Source: RBI, AAA Research
3
6 6
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16YTD
Stressed Asset Sale (US$ bn)
142134 130
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2020E
India - Ease of business doing rankings
Source: World Bank
0.5
0.25
0.5
0 0
0.25
0
0.25 0.25
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
4Q
FY1
5
1Q
FY1
6
2Q
FY1
6
3Q
FY1
6
4Q
FY1
6
1Q
FY1
7
2Q
FY1
7
3Q
FY1
7
4Q
FY1
7E
Interest Rate Cuts (%)
Source: RBI, AAA Research
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From Cash to Digital Economy = Better Governance
14
UID Enrollments
100 Cr (80%)
5.9 Cr
(60%)
Aadhar linked MNERGS Cards
11.4 Cr
(45%)
Aadhar linked ration cards
12.3 Cr
(71%)
Aadhar linked LPG Connections
Jan Dhan
25 Cr Aadhar linked Bank
accounts opened
US$7-8bn savings annually
69
69
68
59
55
47
45
43
38
31
30
20
14
11
11
10
8
7
Indonesia
Russia
India
Thailand
Malaysia
Mexico
China
Brazil
Japan
Singapore
Korea
US
Australia
Sweden
UK
Canada
France
Belgium
Share of Cash based transactions(%)
Source: Master card Source: RBI, Ministry Of Finance
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Size Of Opportunity For Organised Sector
15
Source: Edelweiss, AAA Research
Demonetisation and GST will lead to market share shift from unorganised to organised sector, leading to 3-10x increase in Size of opportunity in the listed equity space.
Packaging
Electrical Equipment
Plastics
Tiles
Apparels
Plywood
Dairy
Diagnostics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
Un
org
anis
ed
Sh
are
(%)
Size of Oppportunity (Organised Sector)(no of times over 10 years)
4-5x
6-9x
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Improving Macro Economic Factors
16
Source: PPAC, AAA Research Source: IDFC Research, AAA Research
6.37.0
9.48.8
10.2
6.37.2
8.9
6.9 6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Q
FY1
5
2Q
FY1
5
3Q
FY1
5
4Q
FY1
5
1Q
FY1
6
2Q
FY1
6
3Q
FY1
6
4Q
FY1
6
1Q
FY1
7
2Q
FY1
7
Traffic Growth (%)
913
10
19
1
0
0
-1
4
9
14
21
-5-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
3Q
FY1
4
4Q
FY1
4
1Q
FY1
5
2Q
FY1
5
3Q
FY1
5
4Q
FY1
5
1Q
FY1
6
2Q
FY1
6
3Q
FY1
6
4Q
FY1
6
1Q
FY1
7
2Q
FY1
7
3Q
FY1
7
2W Volume Growth(%)
-7.9 -6.8
1.4
7.5
2.54.5
6.2 6.3
14.6
2.4
6.7
17.7
1.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
3Q
FY1
4
4Q
FY1
4
1Q
FY1
5
2Q
FY1
5
3Q
FY1
5
4Q
FY1
5
1Q
FY1
6
2Q
FY1
6
3Q
FY1
6
4Q
FY1
6
1Q
FY1
7
2Q
FY1
7
3Q
FY1
7
PV Volume Growth(%)
Source: Ace Equity, AAA Research
0.81.6
4.4 4.63.5
5.46.6
11.0 11.1
14.7
10.2
5.9
7.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
3Q
FY1
4
4Q
FY1
4
1Q
FY1
5
2Q
FY1
5
3Q
FY1
5
4Q
FY1
5
1Q
FY1
6
2Q
FY1
6
3Q
FY1
6
4Q
FY1
6
1Q
FY1
7
2Q
FY1
7
3Q
FY1
7
Fuel Consumption Growth(%)
Source: Ace Equity, AAA Research
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Drivers Of Growth – Investment By Government
17
9900
20003621
798010000
25000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E
MORTH Project Awards (Kms)
Source: MORTH, AAA Research
24.3
5.7
16.9 17.9
27.1
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17*
States Capex Growth(%)
Source: MOSL Research, AAA Research *(01 April 2016 – 30 Sept 2016)
5
12 11
16
32
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E
Railways Expenditure growth (%)
Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research
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India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08
18
Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research
Source: RBI, AAA Research
4.2
5.4
3.8
8.07.1
9.5 9.6 9.3
6.7
8.6 8.9
6.7
4.5 4.75.5
7.67.1
0123456789
1011
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E
GDP Growth (%)
5.0
2.7
5.7
7.0
11.7
8.6
12.9
15.5
2.5
5.3
8.2
2.9
1.1
2.8 2.41.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E
IIP Growth(%)
Average IIP: 5.6%
Average IIP: 6.9%
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Dissecting the economic recovery of FY03-08
27%
40% 39.7%
16%
31%
47.9%
26%
90%
47.3%
23%
11%
26.1%
53%
65%
45.8%
33%
60%
72.3%
43%
62%
22.0%
32%
73%
54.4%
17.6%
15.6%
52.2%
21% 21%
26.6%25%
38.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
Re
ven
ue
PA
T
Mca
p
PA
T
Mca
p
Auto Banking Cement ConsumerFMCG
ConsumerDurables
Engineering IT Mining &Metal
Oil & Gas Pharma Sensex
Sectoral CAGR FY03-08 (%)
Source: BSE, AAA Research
Sensex Net profit CAGR: 25.0%Sensex Returns CAGR : 38.7%
Market Cap Returns > Net Profit Growth
19
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
BSE Auto BSE Banking BSEConsumer
Durable
BSE CapitalGoods
BSE FMCG BSEHealthcare
BSE IT BSE Metal Sensex
5.3x
6.6x
3.3x 3.2x 2.7x
8.7x
15x
7x
5.1x
Source: BSE
Sensex went up by 5.1xCyclical indices went up by 5-15x
Dissecting The Economic Recovery Of FY03-08
20
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Focus On Stock Earnings Growth - Earnings Growth To Bounce Back
21
Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research
81 129 181
250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272
348 450
523
718 833 820 834
1,024 1,124
1,183
1,340 1,355 1,340 1,447
1,621
1,913
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
E
FY18
E
FY19
E
FY93-96EPS CAGR 45%
FY96-03: EPS CAGR 1%
FY03-08 EPSCAGR 25%
FY08-16 EPSCAGR 6.1%
FY16-19E EPSCAGR 12.6%
Sensex CAGR -1.4%
Sensex CAGR 38.7%
Sensex CAGR 6.2%
SensexCAGR
??
Sensex CAGR 13.9%
After reporting single digit earnings growth (FY08-16), Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit growth (FY16-19E)
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Big Events during last three years
22
China Slowdown – Fall in commodity prices
China – Yuan Devaluation
BrExit – Europe Slowdown
US election – Donald Trump elected against prediction
Demonetization Impact
Performance *CNX Nifty *AAA PMS
2 Years -0.2% 25.7%
3 Years 41.5% 128.7%
5 Years 64.9% 210.1%
Uncertainty in the short term creates opportunity in the long term
*Data ending for the period 28 Feb 2017
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Market Valuations
23
Sensex @28743 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19EEPS (Rs) 821 826 1,013 1,123 1,185 1,340 1,355 1,340 1,447 1,621 1,913
EPS G(%) -1% 1% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 8% 12% 18%
BV (Rs) 4,441 5,101 5,944 6,842 7,790 8,862 9,540 10,143 10,722 11,370 12,135
P/E(x) 24.8 23.5 21.2 21.2 21.5 19.9 17.7 15.0
P/BV(x) 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4
ROE(%) 18.5% 16.2% 17.0% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 13.5% 14.3% 15.8%Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research
Source: AAA ResearchSource: AAA Research
7
12
17
22
27
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Feb
-16
Feb
-17
P/E Fwd (x)
P/E Fwd(x)
Mean 17.0x
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.3
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Feb
-16
Feb
-17
P/B Fwd (x)
P/B Fwd(x)
Mean 2.7x
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The people running the show at AlfAccurate Advisors
24
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The AlfAccurate Advisors Team
25
Rajesh Kothari Govind Agrawal
Founder and Managing Director Director
Bhushan Koli
Head Operations and Compliance
Bhushan Koli
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Award Winning Investment Team
Mr. Rajesh Kothari – Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)
Rich experience of more than 22 years in Indian capital market
Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy
Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) – USA based India dedicated
fund for two and half years
During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark indices significantly
Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock) Fund Managers Ltd for
more than four years
During his tenure equity assets under management grew from USD100m to USD1.5bn
The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming
benchmark indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively
The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking” consistently during his tenure
26
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Achievements:
Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014
Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity Fund on a risk-adjusted return
basis in July 2006
Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced Fund on a risk-adjusted return
basis in July 2006
CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity Fund
Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years
DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)
He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on Indian Infrastructure
(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)
Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit
Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on Governance
Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.
Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative
Award Winning Investment Team
27
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Glimpses Of Superior Performance To Benchmark Index
28Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index
0200400600800
1000120014001600180020002200240026002800
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-Dec08
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#
Funds managed by Rajesh(%) BSE 500 Index(%)
26.6% CAGRRs 10,000 invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 2,55,508
*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010) #(1 Apr 2016 – 28 Feb 2017)
-50
0
50
100
150
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08 FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#
DSP MerillLynch MF Voyager AlfAccurate Advisors
Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index
13.3% CAGR
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Mr. Govind Agrawal – Director (FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)
Rich experience of 28 years in finance out of which last 22 years in Indian capital market
Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn) for over
four years.
Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark indices by 35% since
its inception.
Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for India and Emerging
Market as Investment Theme
Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk
Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India Pvt Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4 years
Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs
Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings
Award Winning Investment Team
29
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Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years
Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and processes
Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising the clients on sectoral allocation
and stock selection
Achievements
Represented Reliance AMC on international platforms and panel discussion on Emerging Markets and Indian
Equity Market
Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,
Europe and in India
At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”
Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for consistently contributing to Institutional Equity Sales
30
Award Winning Investment Team
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The AlfAccurate Advisors philosophy
31
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AlfAccurate Advisors
To be the world’s most admired investment advisor
We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined experience of 70+ years
Protect Capital , Create Wealth
32
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Our Guiding Principles
Ambition
Entrepreneurship
Accountability
Passion
Excellence
Commitment
Teamwork
Integrity
Meritocracy
33
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Investment Philosophy...
34
Fundamental Research core ofour investment management
Long Term Horizon
Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market
Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research
Benchmark aware but not driven
Flexible investment style
Focus on margin safety
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Combined With Investment Discipline...
Parameter Rules Current Position
Cap Exposure At least 50% in large cap(More than USD1bn) 57.0% invested in large cap
Sector Weightage Not more than 30% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 20.6%
Stock WeightageNot more than 10% in a given stock and not more than 50% in the top 10 Stocks
Maximum Exposure in a given stock is 3.7%. Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 27.6%
Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 53 stocks
Stock Universe 450 Corporates 450 Corporates
Number of Stocks: 53Number of Sectors: 16Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio: 27.6%Data as on 28 Feb 2017 35
57%
22%
16%
5%
Portfolio Allocation
Large Mid Small Cash
Sector Allocation
Agri Input Auto Auto Ancillary Banking
Cement Chemicals Construction Consumer
Engineering Media Oil & Gas Others
Pharma Power Software Textiles
Cash & Cash Equivalent
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Leading To Superior Performance
Performance (%) FY17YTD# FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 Since Inception*
AAA India Opp. Plan 22.6 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 9.6 18.6 324.7
BSE 500 Index 19.6 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 82.9
BSE Sensex 13.4 (9.4) 24.9 18.8 8.2 (10.5) 10.9 67.3
CNX Nifty 14.7 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 74.0
*(23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017)(Management fees adjusted); #(1 April 2016 – 28 Feb 2017)
AAA India Opp. plan consistently not only outperformed but also generated Positive return in volatile markets
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
36
18.69.6 11.2
29.0
71.7
2.5
22.6
7.5
-9.1
4.8
17.1
33.2
-7.8
19.6
-20
0
20
40
60
80
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#
AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)
AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity BSE 500 Index
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Leading To Superior Performance
37
AAA India Opp Plan ranks # 1 compared with 141 diversified funds of each reputed fund house
Average Monthly Rolling Returns Since Inception(%)
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
Compounded Annual Returns (%)
1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Since Inception*
AAA India Opp. Plan 35.1 12.1 31.8 25.4 22.1
BSE 500 Index 32.3 3.1 16.5 12.2 8.7
BSE Sensex 25.0 -1.1 10.8 10.1 7.4
CNX Nifty 27.1 -0.1 12.3 10.5 7.9
*(23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)
*Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)
Source: Bloomberg
Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds Since Inception(%)
324.7
188.0
133.8106.7
63.782.9 67.3 74.0
AAA IndiaOpp.Plan*
Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 BSE 500Index
BSESensex
S&P CNXNifty
24.126.0 25.0
9.210.4 9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 Year 3 year 5 Year
AAA India Opp. Plan BSE 500 Index
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38
Risk Analysis : AAA IOP PMS Performance compared to Benchmark
Parameters How to read ratioAAA IOP
PMSBSE500 Index
AAA IOP PMS performance
BetaLess than 1 beta is good sign as it denotes lower volatility of the
portfolio0.85 1.0
Beta of 0.85 shows AAA PMS has lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index
Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit of
deviation. Higher the Sharpe ratio, better it is.
1.0 0.10Top Performing Midcap MFs have Sharpe Ratio 0.75+. AAA IOP PMS Sharpe ratio is
one the best in the industry.
Standard DeviationStandard deviation denotes
amount of variation14.6 15.6
AAA IOP SD is less than Benchmark as well as peer group which shows portfolio has
lower risk
Upside capture It denotes overall performance
of PMS during up market. 150.29 100.0
Upside capture ratio of more than 100 indicates that fund has outperformed
Benchmark during positive market.
Downside captureIt denotes overall performance
of PMS during down market. 78.8 100.0
Ratio of less than 100 indicates, fund has outperformed Benchmark during negative
market.
Capture Ratio
Capture ratio >1 indicates, Investment Manager has gained
more during up (positive) market and lose less during
down (negative market).
1.91 1AAA PMS 1.91 capture ratio is healthy as
it protected capital during negative market and building wealth consistently.
Data is analysed since inception of AAA IOP PMS data i.e. 23 Nov 2009-28 Feb 2017
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AAA IOP PMS Rolling Return Analysis
39
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)
Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)
AAA IOP 1 Year
BSE500 Index 1 Year
AAA IOP3 Years
BSE500Index 3 Years
AAA IOP 5 Years
BSE500 Index 5 years
No of obervations 77.0 77.0 53.00 53.00 29.00 29.00
No of Positive Observations 71.0 57.0 53.00 47.00 29.00 29.00
No of Negative Observations 6.0 20.0 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00
Loss Probability (%) 7.8% 26.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Returns (%) 24.1% 9.2% 26.0% 10.4% 25.0% 9.5%
Median Returns (%) 17.1% 5.8% 29.7% 12.1% 24.6% 9.5%
Maximum Returns (%) 88.8% 51.3% 41.0% 22.9% 28.5% 13.8%
Minimum Returns (%) -13.8% -27.4% 6.2% -4.2% 21.9% 5.6%
AAA has delivered average returns of 24.1%, 26.0% and 25.0% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on monthly rolling return basis
Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0
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Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.
The Power Of Compounding – A Scenario Analysis
40
Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores
The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term
12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR
30Yrs
150 Cr
9 Cr
20Yrs5Yrs 10Yrs
16 Cr
48Cr
331 Cr
20 Cr
5Yrs
82 Cr
20Yrs 30Yrs10Yrs
10 Cr
10Yrs 30Yrs
717 Cr
20Yrs
137 Cr
26 Cr
5Yrs
11 Cr
30Yrs20Yrs
1,187 Cr
5Yrs
31 Cr
192 Cr
10Yrs
12 Cr
18% CAGR
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Why We Should Be Your Choice Of Investment Advisory
41
Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets
Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy
Sound Research capabilities
Award winning investment team and track record Process driven organization
Adequate infrastructure to support scalability
Integrity and ethics as the core of the business
Access to Founders – founders are fund managers
Staggered investment approach
Client centric business model
No conflict of interest
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Product Features
42
Name of plan AAA India Opportunity Equity PMS Plan
Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation
Investment ThemeTo invest in listed companies with combination of high growth stocks as well as value stocks
Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari
Director Govind Agrawal
Custodians Deutsche Bank, India
Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India
Depository Participant IL&FS, India
Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer
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Awards and Recognitions
43
Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014
Lipper Fund Award – India 2007
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44
Thank You Rajesh KothariT: +91 22 42360301M:+91 98200 [email protected]
Govind AgrawalT: +91 22 42360 311M: +91 93208 [email protected]
AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd503, B Wing, Naman Midtown,Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, IndiaT: +91 22 42360300; F: +91 22 42360333 [email protected]
Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely foryour information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is based uponpublicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are our currentopinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without AlfAccurate AdvisorsPvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot beguaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.
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