canawest - colliers residential marketshare q1 2012(2)

7/31/2019 CANAWEST - Colliers Residential MarketShare Q1 2012(2)

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A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIALREAL ESTATE MARKET IN METROPOLITAN VANCOUVER

May 2012

MarketShareFIRST QUARTER 2012


2/18

FIRST QUARTE

WELCOME TO MARKETSHARE 1

OVERALL SUMMARY METROPOLITAN VANCOUVER 2

MARKET SUMMARIES

Vancouver Downtown 3

Vancouver West 4

Vancouver East 5

Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 6

Burnaby/New Westminster 7

North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 8Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 9

Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 10

Surrey Central/North Delta 11

South Surrey/White Rock 12

Cloverdale/Langley 13

WHAT TO WATCH 14

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 15

TABLE OF

CONTENTS


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RST QUARTER 2012

n our rst edition o MarketShare or 2012 weanalyse the remarkable momentum in the Metropolitan

Vancouver new multiamily residential real estate

market.

ir Isaac Newton once said, An object in motion stays in motion unless

cted upon by an equal or stronger orce. While he wasnt speaking o the

ew multiamily home market in Vancouver at the end o the First Quarter

2012, it does seem like it. The overall market in the Lower Mainland, now

eerred to as, Metro Vancouver continues to enjoy positive sales momentum

nd delivered impressive sales results with an increase o 79 percent overhe Fourth Quarter o 2011 and 48 percent over the First Quarter o 2011.

O course, prosperity has its skeptics presenting themselves as voices in the

wilderness crying out bubble trouble to anyone who will listen. Is there

ny truth to these claims? A summary o a recent study by Landcor Data

orporation published in the Metro Vancouver New Condo Guide certainly

oes not think there is. In addition, Bryan Yu, economist or the Central 1

redit Union, has spoken out against such bubble talk. Yu says, Fears o

market deation are overblown. Yu also believes Vancouver is not the

unting ground o speculators, that new sales will increase this year and

hat our market will be stable or two years or more. We agree.

o what causes bubbles? In our experience, rampant short term speculation,

ver extension on credit and the launching o poorly envisioned projects in

ess desirable locations have typical ly been the primary contributors. We have

ot seen evidence o these actors to any degree in Metro Vancouver. Both

he investor and end user here are quite disciplined and knowledgeable. This

ranslates to a willingness to take a long term view, avoiding the temptation o

hort term nancial gratication and the ensuing hyper ination. It seems

uyers here are prepared to wait patiently or the value appreciation that

omes with the urther maturation o our city. Thus, the long term prognosis

or our market is optimistic assuming development proceeds in a disciplined

ashion and local, national and international appreciation or lie in Vancouver

ontinues.

With the longer term view in mind, Colliers and a number o Vancouv

leading developers continue to look to accelerate sales. This inclu

developing partnerships in China with leading immigration agenc

banking institutions, the realtor community and other select businesses.

the same time, our colleagues in Hong Kong have reported a renew

interest in Vancouver properties. This is due in part to an introduction

new luxury taxes on higher end UK properties and a growing desire

many to diversiy their portolios by acquiring relatively sae and aorda

Canadian investments in key transit based and education ba

communities.

Given the recent success and the underlying undamentals o the newprojects coming to market we expect the momentum we are enjoying t

continue through the Second Quarter and into the second hal o 2012.

In order to stay current with the times we have made a number o min

modications to the ormat o MarketShare such as: adopting the term

Metropolitan Vancouver instead o the Lower Mainland and adjusting th

boundary or Vancouver West to Main Street instead o Quebec Street.

This nal change came about due to recent research regarding the

migration o some buyers east and the evolution o the Southeast False

Creek area into a community more akin to Vancouver-Downtown or We

We hope you will nd this edition o MarketShare inormative and help

As always, we welcome your thoughts and comments.

W. Scott BrownSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

WELCOME TO

MarketShare


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RST QUARTER 2012

The First Quarter o 2012 was a particularly active one. This past quarter

3,727 new homes were sold. This represents an impressive 48 percent

ncrease compared to the First Quarter o 2011 and a remarkable 79 percent

ncrease over the last quarter o 2011.

Stellar absorptions in Vancouver Downtown, Vancouver West, Burnaby,

Tri Cities, Richmond, and South Surrey were also reported. The most

competitive market areas include Southeast False Creek, Metrotown, Surrey

Central and Cloverdale/Langley.

Even with the number o new launches, supply levels were reduced by one

percent compared to the Fourth Quarter o 2011 and six percent per relative

o First Quarter o 2011. With clarity regarding the HST and the introduction

o government incentives, the rst time buyer was once again actively

shopping or value. At the same time, the baby boomer downsizer market

continues to emerge and reward developers oering larger homes.

NEW HOME MARKET:

n the First Quarter, 54 percent o sales occurred at high rise projects,

which is a 16 percent increase compared to the previous quarter. Low rise

sales represented 29 percent o sales, which is down 12 percent rom the

previous quarter while townhome sales decreased by ve percent to 17

percent. O the 6,521 units o supply, only 1,922 are completed and ready or

occupancy meaning standing inventory levels have dropped six percent

since this time last year. Active projects did, however, increase by our

percent, up 13 percent rom the First Quarter o 2011.

Overall, First Quarter perormance across all product types is summarized

n the ollowing table:

Project launches o note included: Westbanks Telus Garden, Townlines 999

Seymour, Aderas Sail, PolygonsAcademy, Bosa Properties Lido, Cresseys

Meccanica, PCIs Marine Gateway, Concord Pacics Monet, Porte

Developments Lit, Hungerord PropertiesAltitude, and Polygons Tamarack,

Allaires Easton, Aderas Breeze and Woodbridge HomesAbbey Road.

RESALE MARKET:

This past quarter, 1,694 multiamily homes were sold on MLS. Sales w

down seven percent over the previous quarter but up 24 percent when

compared to same period last year. All product types decreased with h

rise representing the lowest decrease at 12 percent, low rise sales dow

by 47 percent (largely due to attractively priced new oferings) and

townhome sales lower by 22 percent. However, when compared to the

Third Quarter o 2011, sales were down 37 percent as a whole. Overal

First Quarter 2011 sales were distributed across all product types as

indicated in the ollowing table:

Last quarter we anticipated the deerral o a number o signature new

multiamily project launches. In this case, delaying proved to be a winn

strategy. While a number o key projects did come to market, the Secon

Quarter lineup still includes signature projects with investor oriented,

rental suitable stock at or near transit. Many o the smaller homes oe

will be attractively priced between $200,000 and $400,000.

Finally, in a number o markets in Vancouver location, location, locatioreally means transit, transit, transit. Thus, continued investment at the

vital and emerging transit nodes is expected to propel the market orwa

OVERALL SUMMARY

METROPOLITAN VANCOUVER

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total First Quarter Sales 2,028 1,070 629 3,727

Total Inventory 3,084 2,427 1,010 6,521

Total Number Of Projects 87 113 90 290

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOT

Total First Quarter Sales 974 577 716 2,

Total Active Listings 2,288 1,565 1,496 5,


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RST QUARTER 2012

The green light rating or the Downtown market continues due to the current appetite or pre-sale produ

combined with the relatively low levels o supply. The boost in sales activity compared to the previous

quarter is directly attributed to the successul launch o Telus Garden and 999 Seymour.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER DOWNTOWN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Much o the sales activity or Downtown

Vancouver occured at Telus Garden and 999

Seymour, accounting or nearly 500 o the

579 sales in the First Quarter.

As was the case in recent quarters three

projects that are under construction and intempo sales mode (Maddox, The Mark, and

The Rolston) comprise the majority o the

unsold inventory Downtown.

Fewer sales are anticipated or the Second

Quarter as there is much less new product

anticipated to be launched.

The only signicant project launch

anticipated or the Second Quarter, is

Amacons Modern project on Burrard and

Harwood Street (ormer location o ConsumerElectronics).

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

Overall months o supply dropped rom ve

point three compared to seven in First

Quarter 2012.

320 high rise condominium sales or the

First Quarter 2012 is up 43 percent rom the

First Quarter in 2011.

Average sales price per square oot o $697

is very similar to the First Quarter o 2011

($700).

NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS

PRODUCTQ1 ACTIVE

PROJECTS

Q1

SALES

Q1

SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALES

RANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 14 582 405 $720 - $780

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME

Maps for illustrative purposes

only. Locations are approximate.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q1 2012

MLS RESALE - Q1 2012MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)

ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY

PRODUCT LISTINGSMONTHS

OF SUPPLY#

% OF TOTAL

SOLD*$ PSF

AVG. DAYS

ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE

(75% of sales)

High Rise 561 4.3 320 n/a $697 48 $365,000 - $820,000

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change

* % o Total is the percentage o product sold under ten years o age relative to the total sold or each product category

MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE

AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF

PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM

High Rise $450,187 $699 $703,675 $710

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

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RST QUARTER 2012

A number o new signature projects will come tomarket in the Second Quarter. Will Second Quarter

sales accelerate resulting in total sales volume in the

rst hal o 2012 that meet or exceed the astounding

result posted in the same time period in 2011?

LAST QUARTER

We expected a number o deerred projects to orge ahead and succeed

so given the current pace o sales, developer sentiment remains positive.

However, we do see greater attention being paid to the growing

competition in a number o markets.

We expected First Quarter sales volume to be in line with the 2,527

homes sold in the same quarter in 2011. To our delight this projection was

surpassed by 1,200 homes. This substantial increase was partly due to

the act that a number o orecasted launches or Second Quarter

released earlier than anticipated.

LOOKING AHEAD

The near term and long term outlook or the Metro Vancouver market is

positive.

Looking ahead to the Second Quarter o 2012 and to year end we expect:

* Several signature project launch successes driving results and

sustaining momentum.

* Despite a potential increase in supply in the Second Quarter, the

general health o the market will remain strong.

* Intense competition in select markets may result in increased supply,

reduced buyer urgency and possible price reductions and / or addtional

consumer incentives and/or incrased realtor commissions or these

areas.

* Second Quarter Sales Volume o 3,500+ units will bring the hal yeartotal to nearly same level o sales volumbe as the rst hal o 2011.

* Expected launches include Amacons Modern, Executive Groups

Residences at West, Westbanks Granville and West 70th project,

Intracorps Silver, Concord Pacics The Met, Polygons Moda, Onnis

Parkside, Appias Solo and LedMacsAviara in the Brentwood area,

Fairborne and Wall Financials Mandarin Residences in Richmond, Wall

Financials Wall Centre Central Park, Rize Alliances Wave and Bosa

Properties Evergreen.

Finally, there are a number of the questions we at Colliers are asking

ourselves as we move through the Second and Third Quarters of 201

ON THE HEELS OF A PCIS HUGE RESULTS AT MARINE AND

CAMBIE WHO WILL BE NEXT AND WHEN WILL THEY LAUNC

Given the lack o high rise in supply in South West Vancouver and in

the Westside Intracorp, Wesgroup and Concord Pacic are preparing

launch new projects at this Southwest Marine Drive transit mode. W

will be next and when?

A NUMBER OF PROJECTS ARE BEING MARKETED IN CHINA

LEVERAGING RELATIONSHIPS WITH IMMIGRATION AGENCIE

WILL THESE EFFORTS BEAR FRUIT AND HELP EASE THE

EFFECTS OF COMPETITION IN SELECT AREAS?

We continue our long term eorts in China and are joined by a selec

number o Vancouvers blue chip developers looking to accelerate sa

in the short term and develop this sales channel term long term. Wi

meaningul sales volume be generated relative to the cost?

WILL SECOND QUARTER PERFORMANCE SURPASS 2011

RESULTS OR WILL INVENTORY LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY

INCREASE ESPECIALLY AS COMEPTITION INTENSIFIES IN

CERTAIN MARKETS?

Given the number o launches planned or the Second Quarter and t

act the Second Quarter is typically the most active will we see supp

levels increase signicantly or will sustained momentum to continue

be the big story?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

As always, we value your input. I you have views youd like to share

and/or questions that you would like to see answered in uture editio

please contact us directly at [email protected].

RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY

WHAT TO WATCH


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RST QUARTER 2012

Urban Analytics (UAI) is Metro Vancouvers leadingource or analytical interpretation o relevant real

estate market data, trends and strategic

ecommendations.

rban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate

ata on the multi-amily residential real estate market in the Vancouver

Metropolitan.

he methodology used to collect the data was as ollows:

ENERAL PARAMETERSancouver Metropolitan reers to the area rom West Vancouver to

Aldergrove. The ocus o this study is l imited to the multiamily market.

MULTIFAMILY PROJECT DATA NEW HOME SALES

he primary method used to collect inormation is a personal visit to each

roject being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales

normation, UAI representatives engage on-site sales sta to determine

dditional relevant inormation such as incentive oerings, trafc trends and

ctive buyer proles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is

ened as The per square oot sales range in which 75 percent o sales o this

roduct type occurred.

or the purposes o the MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various

municipal planning departments along with developers (and/or their

epresentatives) o proposed new developments to determine the

nticipated timing o their approval and marketing launch.

MULTIFAMILY PROJECT DATA RESALE

The resale market provides an important barometer rom which to ass

demand and determine pricing or new home projects. Accordingly, UA

closely monitors the resale market or multi-amily homes in order to

identiy trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the

breadth and depth o product or sale can create ndings that are less

than helpul to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends

studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at les

than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to

newer product (i.e. ve years or newer) would be more relevant to the

new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and

potentially skew the data towards a specic type o product available in

small number o specic buildings/projects. In all instances active sales

range quoted in tables is dened as The active sales range in which 75

percent o sales o this product type occurred.

RESEARCH

Methodology

MICHAEL FERREIRA

URBAN ANALYTICS INC.

JON BENNEST

URBAN ANALYTICS INC.


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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

W. Scott Brown, Senior Vice President

Suite 1900, 200 Granville Street

Vancouver, British Columbia

Canada V6C 2R6

MAIN +1 604 681 4111

DIRECT +1 604 661 0877

EMAIL [email protected]

www.colliers.com/residential

www.urbananalytics.ca

urbanANALYTICS INC

This document has been prepared by Colliers International or advertising and general inormation only. Colliers International makes no guarantees,

representations or warranties o any kind, express or implied, regarding the inormation including, but not limited to, warranties o content, accuracy

and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy o the inormation. Colliers International excludes

unequivocally all inerred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out o this document and excludes all liability or loss and damages

arising there rom. This publication is the copyrighted property o Colliers International and /or its licensor(s). 2012. All rights reserved

Vancouver Metropolitan: West Vancouver to Aldergrove. Excludes Abbotsord, Chilliwack, and Mission. Resale Data: MLS sold or attached product

(high rise, low rise, and townhomes) built within the last ten years or homes valued less that $1.2 million. Single amily sales are excluded rom the

report.

canawest - colliers residential marketshare q1 2012(2)

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