cameron and obama- what the poll tea leaves show

Obama and Cameron:What the poll ‘tea leaves’ show

Julia Clark

Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

[email protected]

Some quick fundamentals about politics in Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI

Electoral Arithmetic Core vote for Labour - 30% (tested 1983)

Core vote for Tories - 30% (tested 1997)

Core vote for Others - 20% (tested 1989)

Total 80%

Floating Voters = 20%

Marginal Constituencies = 20%

20% x 20% = 4% x c. 25 million = c. 1 million voters

Source: Ipsos MORI

10%

9%

10%

5%

66%

10% decide whether to vote - or not - on the final day (and 19% in the last week)

In the first week

Within the last week

Before the campaign beganAround the middle

Within the last 24 hours

Q When did you decide which party to vote for?

Base: Voted in the General Election (1,399) 18+, 7-11 April 2005 Source: MORI

84.0 82.576.7 78.8 77.1 75.8

72.078.7 76.0 75.3 77.7

71.5

59.3 61.3

39 37

72.772.872.7

1945 '50 '51 '55 '59 '64 '66 '70 '74Feb

'74Oct

'79 '83 '87 '92 '97 '01 '05

18-24s

General Election Turnout Since 1945

%

Source: Ipsos MORI

But WHY?

Where have all the voters gone?

Source: Ipsos MORI

61

59

59

60

60

-39

-40

-40

-40

-39

Not Interested in Politics??

June 1973

Q How interested would you say you are in politics?

% Very/fairly interested% Not particularly/at all interested

Base: c.2,000 British/UK adults 18+

Mar 1991

Apr 1997

Source: MORI/JRRT/Electoral Commission, Times, FT

May 2001

April 2005

What would make political parties more appealing?

Q Which two or three of the following changes to political parties would help to make political parties more appealing to you?

Making better use of internet/ information technology

Making constituency offices more inviting / interesting to visit

Working more with single-issue organisations

Acting more as social organisations

Allowing interested people to influence policy more

Leading more campaigns around local issues

Drawing party candidates from a wider cross-section of society

Taking the time to talk to people about their organisation and explaining their values

Parties would listen more to the public

Involving people more in local decision making

Source: Ipsos MORI/ Young FoundationBase: 973 British adults 15+, 31.8-7.9.06

Involve people locally, you say?

So: The Obama Effect

Source: www.pollingreport.com

Good ratings

Americans think world leaders respect Obama

Source: www.pollingreport.com

42%

14%

43%

Just 14% of Americans think America’s image has got worse under Obama

Worse

Better

Same

Unsure (1%)

Q Under Obama, do you think America's image in the rest of the world has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?

Base: N=1,000 adults nationwide, March 26-29, 2009. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll.

Obama is doing well…

Pew data indicates that between 2002-2008, favourable opinion of the US declined in 14 of 19 countries polled

Obama highly trusted on economy (71% [Gallup]) – compared to 46% trusting the Brown/Darling team

Americans’ public approval for Obama’s handling of foreign policy has gone from 54% in Feb to 61% in March (Gallup)

79% of Americans think people in other countries will have a more positive view of the US because of Obama (CNN/ORC)

So what can British politicians take away

from all this?

A quick overview of where things stand here

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan '9

7

Jun '9

7

Nov '9

7

Apr

'98

Sep '9

8

Jan '9

9

Jun '9

9

Nov '9

9

Apr

'00

Sep '0

0

Feb '0

1

Jul '

01

Dec '0

1

May '0

2

Oct '0

2

Mar

'03

Aug '0

3

Jan '0

4

Jun '0

4

Oct '0

4

Mar

'05

Aug '0

5

Jan '0

6

Jun '0

6

Nov '0

6

Apr

'07

Sep '0

7

Feb '0

8

Jul '

08

Dec '0

8

Index (get better minus get worse)

The economy will be the most important election issue for GE 2010

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-4

-29

-56

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

23%

20%27%

28%

1%

22%

27%21%

29%

1%

Fear of redundancy (amongst full-time workers)How concerned if at all would you say you are about the possibility of being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next few months?

Very concerned

Don’t know

Not at all concerned

Base: 461 British adults in full-time work, 16th-18th January 2009

Fairly concerned

Not very concerned


January 2009October 2008

Very concerned

Don’t know

Not at all concerned

Fairly concerned

Not very concerned

Base: 452 British adults in full-time work, 17th-19th October 2008

Total concerned = 43% Total concerned = 49%

6732

2523

1212111098

The economy, stupid…

Base: 995 British adults 18+, 19th – 24th February 2009

What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Unemployment

Economy

Crime/law and order

Inflation/prices

Education/Schools

Top mentions %

NHS

Race relations/immigration

Housing

Morality/Individual Behaviour

Change since Jan

-3

-2

-1

-1

+1

-1

+2

+2

Defence/Foreign Affairs/Terrorism

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

-2

+4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends (current top 5)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+

NHS

Crime/ Law & Order

Race/ immi-

gration

Economy


What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Unemployment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Economy vs. Unemployment vs. Inflation/Prices

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown becomes

PM

Pound at 15- year high

against dollar Sub-prime mortgage

crisis in the US

Northern Rock

nationalised

Stock Market falls

Global Recession and Russian

Financial crisis

Highest score since 1992. Most important

issue for the first time

Inflation rate hits 16 year

peak

Inflation/ prices

Unemployment

Economy



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown Becomes

PM

General Election – “Battle of

Margaret’s shoulder”

London Bombs

Hewitt heckled at UNISON conference –

fears over NHS job cuts

Blair tells doctors “not enough” has been done for the NHS – allocates extra £20 billion. Report says

waiting lists have doubled under Labour

Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals and development of foundation trusts

as part of NHS plan


Blair – “We have under funded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for it” – BBC NHS day

Lowest score since

December 1985



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown becomes

PM

9/11

Foot and Mouth crisis

London Bombs

War in Iraq

General Election - extra £400 million

allocated for defence budget

War in Kosovo

Failed terror attacks in

London and Glasgow




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

BrownBecomes

PM

9/11

Fuel Protests

Blair activates civil contingencies machinery to deal with spiralling

street crime

Prison overcrowding

reaches record levels

May day riots

Tory election pledge of 40,000 more police

Foreign prisoners scandal – Clarke is sacked


Rhys Jones and Gary Newlove

murdered

Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB



0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown becomes

PM

9/11

Foreign prisoners

furoreRace riots in Burnley,

Oldham, and Bradford

Sangatte detention centre constantly in the news throughout

2002.

Anthony Walker

murdered in Liverpool

The Met publishes its first Race Equality Scheme under the terms of the legislative

response to the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry.




0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools

London Bombs

Introduction of means-tested

tuition fees

Labour’s second term - pledge to improve failing

secondary schools

Fuel Protests

City academies introduced to combat entrenched failure in some urban schools Education and

Inspections Bill limits the power of LAs to open

new schools


Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown becomes

PM

Lowest score since Dec 1985



0

5

10

15

20

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

Issues Facing Britain: Pollution / Environment

Cameron’s “Vote Blue, go Green”

campaign at 2006 local elections

9/11 London Bombs

Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic cloud reaches northern Spain

Wettest Autumn since records began – widespread flooding

across the UK

EC proposes carbon emission

cuts of 20% by 2020

Hurricane in Kensal Rise

Howard becomes

Tory Leader

Cameron becomes

Tory Leader

Brown becomes

PM

Stern report




Voting intention

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-03

Ma

r-03

Ma

y-03

Jul-0

3

Se

p-0

3

No

v-03

Jan

-04

Ma

r-04

Ma

y-04

Jul-0

4

Se

p-0

4

No

v-04

Jan

-05

Ma

r-05

Ma

y-05

Jul-0

5

Se

p-0

5

No

v-05

Jan

-06

Ma

r-06

Ma

y-06

Jul-0

6

Se

p-0

6

No

v-06

Jan

-07

Ma

r-07

Ma

y-07

Jul-0

7

Se

p-0

7

No

v-07

Jan

-08

Ma

r-08

Ma

y-08

Jul-0

8

Se

p-0

8

No

v-08

Jan

-09

Ma

r-09

Voting Intentions Jan 03 – March 09 (all certain to vote)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

(42%)

(32%)

(14%)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

-05

Fe

b-0

5M

ar-0

5A

pr-0

5M

ay-0

5Ju

n-0

5Ju

l-05

Au

g-0

5S

ep

-05

Oct-0

5N

ov-0

5D

ec-0

5Ja

n-0

6F

eb

-06

Ma

r-06

Ap

r-06

Ma

y-06

Jun

-06

Jul-0

6A

ug

-06

Se

p-0

6O

ct-06

No

v-06

De

c-06

Jan

-07

Fe

b-0

7M

ar-0

7A

pr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-0

7Ju

l-07

Au

g-0

7S

ep

-07

Oct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

Ma

y-08

Jun

-08

Jul-0

8A

ug

-08

Se

p-0

8O

ct-08

No

v-08

De

c-08

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9M

ar-0

9Conservative vote share including margins of error

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention

2005 General Election Cameron elected

(Dec 05)Brown as PM

(Jun 07)

42%


0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-05

Fe

b-0

5M

ar-0

5A

pr-0

5M

ay-0

5Ju

n-0

5Ju

l-05

Au

g-0

5S

ep

-05

Oct-0

5N

ov-0

5D

ec-0

5Ja

n-0

6F

eb

-06

Ma

r-06

Ap

r-06

Ma

y-06

Jun

-06

Jul-0

6A

ug

-06

Se

p-0

6O

ct-06

No

v-06

De

c-06

Jan

-07

Fe

b-0

7M

ar-0

7A

pr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-0

7Ju

l-07

Au

g-0

7S

ep

-07

Oct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

Ma

y-08

Jun

-08

Jul-0

8A

ug

-08

Se

p-0

8O

ct-08

No

v-08

De

c-08

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9M

ar-0

9

Labour vote share including margins of error




32%




0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-05

Fe

b-0

5M

ar-0

5A

pr-0

5M

ay-0

5Ju

n-0

5Ju

l-05

Au

g-0

5S

ep

-05

Oct-0

5N

ov-0

5D

ec-0

5Ja

n-0

6F

eb

-06

Ma

r-06

Ap

r-06

Ma

y-06

Jun

-06

Jul-0

6A

ug

-06

Se

p-0

6O

ct-06

No

v-06

De

c-06

Jan

-07

Fe

b-0

7M

ar-0

7A

pr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-0

7Ju

l-07

Au

g-0

7S

ep

-07

Oct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

Ma

y-08

Jun

-08

Jul-0

8A

ug

-08

Se

p-0

8O

ct-08

No

v-08

De

c-08

Jan

-09

Fe

b-0

9M

ar-0

9




Liberal Democrat vote share including margins of error

Clegg elected (Dec 07)

14%




Leads and error margins

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

Jan2003

Jul2003

Jan2004

Jul2004

Jan2005

Jul2005

Jan2006

Jul2006

Jan2007

Jul2007

Jan2008

Jul2008

Jan2009

Co

nse

rvat

ive

lead

Lab

ou

r le

ad General Election ’05 (Labour majority of 66 seats)

Est. Labour lead required for a Labour overallmajority

Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overallmajority



-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

BLACK WEDNESDAY

GE 1992

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

nNet satisfaction with new Prime Ministers: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown

MAJOR /

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

THATCHER /

NEW PM

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

GEN. ELEC SPECULATION

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

BANK ‘BAILOUT’ #1

BLAIR

BROWN

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Net

sat

isfi

ed

HAGUE

DUNCAN SMITH

HOWARD

What about Cameron? Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2009)

Number of months from becoming leader

CAMERON

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy; the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

Best party on economy

30%

29%

8%

25%

9%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 15th -17th August 2008

January 2009

Liberal Democrats

Labour

Conservatives

Other

Don’t know

38%

23%

5%

27%

7%

August 2008

Conservatives

Labour

Liberal Democrats

Other

Don’t know

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 16th -18th January 2009

Conservative lead = +15 Conservative lead = +1

Looking forward (the ‘tea leaves’)

We will have a Conservative government in 2010…

AND a new Prime Minister: PM David Cameron

Cameron will need to take lessons from Obama (change of govt, unstable economy, int’l conflicts)

Election 2010: Role of new media and blogs – how far can Cameron’s team model themselves on the Blue State people?

THANK YOU

QUESTIONS?

cameron and obama- what the poll tea leaves show

Education

britain source

voters source

veryconcerned source

ipsos mori issues index

ipsos mori email

ipsos mori political

inflationprices base

veryconcerned base