california poll - survey usa march april 2016

8/18/2019 California Poll - Survey Usa March April 2016

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Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22817Geography: California Sponsors:

Data Collected: 03/30/2016 - 04/03/2016 All SurveyUSA clients in California

Release Date: 04/04/2016

Percentages

Results o f SurveyUSA Election Poll #22817 - Page 1© 2016 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of L ikely GOP Primary Voters Have 'Extremely Negative' View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly;

Clinton Atop Sanders i n Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer's Seat; CA's Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016:

Extremely unscripted Donald Trump is viewed extremely unfavorably by half of California's registered voters and by 15% of Republicans most likely to vote in the state's 06/07/16 GOP Primary,

according to research just completed by SurveyUSA for television stations KABC in Los Angeles, KPIX in San Francisco, KGTV in San Diego, and KFSN in Fresno. 71% of CA women and 75% of

CA Latinos view Trump negatively today. But even with this anchor tied to his foot, Trump at this hour continues to lead Ted Cruz, though narrowly, among likely Republican primary voters.

Today, it's Trump 40%, Cruz 32%, John Kasich 17%. Trump still leads among women, though his comments about women, and his staff's treatment of women, were in the news during the field

period for this survey. Among moderates, Kasich and Trump run effectively even in the GOP Primary, 35% for Trump to 34% for Kasich, with Cruz at 10%. Among those who say they are

"somewhat conservative," Cruz leads Trump 44% to 38%. But among those who are "very conservative," Trump leads Cruz 45% to 38%. Among primary voters with an "extremely positive" view of

Trump, Trump defeats Cruz 8:1. Among those who are "neutral" on Trump, Cruz leads Trump 4:3. And among those who have an "extremely negative" view of Trump, Cruz defeats Trump 10:1.

The contest is fluid; much could change between now and 06/07/16. To win all 172 of California's delegates to the Republican National Convention, Trump, Cruz, or Kasich would need to carry

every one of CA's 53 Congressional Districts.

In the Democratic presidential primary today, it's Hillary Clinton 53%, Bernie Sanders 39%. Clinton wins the white vote by 6 points, 48% to 42%, and wins the African American vote 3:1. Sandersedges Clinton among single Democratic primary voters; Clinton leads decisively among married voters.

In the open, non-partisan, "Top 2" primary for United States Senator, to fill the seat that will become open when Democrat Barbara Boxer retires at year -end, Democrat Kamala Harris, the Attorney

General of the State of California, and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a Congresswoman from California's 46th Congressional District, top 3 other challengers and are likely to advance to the 11/08/16

general election. Republican Phil Wyman and Republican Tom Del Beccaro today tie for 3rd place at 8%, and Republican Duf Sundheim trails at 5%. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they

"always" vote in "every" California primary, and who therefore are the most reliable voters, Harris leads Sanchez today by 11 points, 30% to 19%. A smaller turnout might increase the size of Harris'

primary margin and a larger turnout might narrow the gap between the Top 2 primary finishers, but in any turnout scenario, at this hour, 2 Democrats advance to the general, and Boxer's seat stays

Blue.

In hypothetical November head-to-head presidential match-ups today:

* Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60% to 26%.

* Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57% to 32%.

* Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich 23 points, 56% to 33%.

* Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63% to 24%.

* Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61% to 26%.

* Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57% to 28%.

Registered voters from all parties were asked, regardless for whom they may vote, which candidate for President would they want sitting in the Oval Office if there were a major terrorist attack on

the United States today: 37% say Clinton, 21% say Sanders, 15% say Trump, 9% say Cruz, 5% say Kasich.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 03/30/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 1,991 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 356were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 767 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic

Presidential primary, 1,269 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,507 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general

election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (58% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in

the recorded voice of a professional announcer . Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other

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1Primary voters will be asked to vote for a candidate for United States Senator . If you were filling out your ballot in the United States Senate primary now, who would you vote for ?(candidate names rotated) Republican Tom Del Beccaro? Republican Duf Sundheim? Republican Phil Wyman? Democrat Kamala Harris? Democrat Loretta Sanchez? Orone of theother candidates?

1269 Likely Primary Voters All

Gender Age


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Percentages


1Primary voters will be asked to vote for a candidate for United States Senator . If you were filling out your ballot in the United States Senate primary now, who would you vote for ?(candidate names rotated) Republican Tom Del Beccaro? Republican Duf Sundheim? Republican Phil Wyman? Democrat Kamala Harris? Democrat Loretta Sanchez? Orone of theother candidates?

1269 Likely Primary Voters All

Union HH Marital Status Child


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2If you were filling out your Republican primary ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for in the Republican primary? (candidate names rotated) DonaldTrump? Ted Cruz? or John Kasich?

356 Likely GOP Presidential Primary All

Gender Age


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2If you were filling out your Republican primary ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for in the Republican primary? (candidate names rotated) DonaldTrump? Ted Cruz? or John Kasich?

356 Likely GOP Presidential Primary All

Region Vote in CA Primary

Margin of Sampling Error : +/-5.3% Central Greater Inland Bay Are Always Someti 1st Tim

Donald Trump 40% 39% 49% 30% 36% 37% 49% 36%

Ted Cruz 32% 26% 34% 43% 14% 28% 32% 62%

John Kasich 17% 18% 13% 9% 43% 18% 19% 2%

Undecided 12% 18% 4% 18% 6% 17% 1% 0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely GOP President 100% 27% 33% 27% 13% 68% 25% 7%

3If you were filling out your Democratic Primary ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for in the Democratic Primary? (candidate names rotated) H illaryClinton? or Bernie Sanders?

767 Likely Democratic Presidential P All

Gender Age


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3If you were filling out your Democratic Primary ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for in the Democratic Primary? (candidate names rotated) H illaryClinton? or Bernie Sanders?

767 Likely Democratic Presidential P All



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4If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton,who would you vote for ?

1507 Likely November Voters All

Party Affiliation Ideology Trump Opinion

Margin of Sampling Error : +/-2.5% Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Very Co Somew Modera Somew Very Li Extrem Positive Neutral Negativ Extrem

Donald Trump (R) 26% 76% 65% 60% 15% 6% 4% 2% 44% 56% 22% 7% 2% 93% 78% 45% 15% 3%

Hillary Clinton (D) 60% 12% 10% 24% 65% 78% 91% 93% 37% 30% 65% 82% 88% 6% 14% 22% 63% 90%

Undecided 14% 12% 25% 15% 21% 16% 5% 6% 20% 14% 13% 11% 10% 0% 8% 33% 23% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 5% 15% 13% 11% 13% 28% 12% 9% 20% 40% 16% 12% 6% 12% 14% 19% 47%

4If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton,who would you vote for ?

1507 Likely November Voters All



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5 What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton ... who would you vote for ?

1507 Likely November Voters All Gender Age


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5 What if the only two candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton ... who would you vote for ?

1507 Likely November Voters All Region Vote in CA PrimaryMargin of Sampling Error : +/-2.5% Central Greater Inland Bay Are Always Someti 1st Tim

Ted Cruz (R) 32% 42% 33% 35% 17% 34% 30% 26%

Hillary Clinton (D) 57% 46% 55% 57% 73% 56% 58% 62%

Undecided 11% 12% 12% 8% 10% 9% 12% 12%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 20% 36% 21% 22% 52% 34% 12%

6 And what if the only two candidates were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Hillary Clinton?



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Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22817 - Page 10© 2016 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

6 And what if the only two candidates were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Hillary Clinton?

1507 Likely November Voters All Union HH Marital Status Child


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7 Now, what if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

1507 Likely November Voters All Party Affiliation Ideology Trump OpinionMargin of Sampling Error : +/-2.5% Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Very Co Somew Modera Somew Very Li Extrem Positive Neutral Negativ Extrem

Donald Trump (R) 24% 76% 62% 55% 13% 1% 3% 5% 40% 50% 21% 6% 3% 88% 74% 38% 19% 1%

Bernie Sanders (D) 63% 12% 24% 30% 65% 82% 88% 87% 42% 31% 66% 91% 82% 12% 15% 34% 62% 91%

Undecided 13% 12% 14% 16% 22% 17% 9% 8% 18% 19% 13% 3% 14% 0% 11% 28% 19% 9%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 5% 15% 13% 11% 13% 28% 12% 9% 20% 40% 16% 12% 6% 12% 14% 19% 47%

7 Now, what if the only two names on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders?



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8 What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders?



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8 What if it were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders?

1507 Likely November Voters All Region Vote in CA PrimaryMargin of Sampling Error : +/-2.5% Central Greater Inland Bay Are Always Someti 1st Tim

Ted Cruz (R) 26% 33% 28% 27% 15% 29% 25% 14%

Bernie Sanders (D) 61% 48% 63% 63% 69% 55% 65% 77%

Undecided 13% 19% 10% 10% 15% 16% 10% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 20% 36% 21% 22% 52% 34% 12%

9 And what if it were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Bernie Sanders?



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9 And what if it were Republican John Kasich and Democrat Bernie Sanders?



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10 Now, regardless of who you may vote for, is your opinion of Donald Trump ... extremely positive? Positive? Neutral? Negative? Or extremely negative?

1991 Registered Voters All Party Affiliation Ideology Trump OpinionMargin of Sampling Error : +/-2.2% Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Very Co Somew Modera Somew Very Li Extrem Positive Neutral Negativ Extrem

Extremely Positive 6% ** 8% 9% 7% 1% 2% 2% 23% 9% 4% 2% 2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Positive 11% ** 27% 18% 6% 10% 4% 6% 12% 23% 9% 5% 10% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%

Neutral 15% ** 25% 26% 17% 5% 11% 3% 13% 24% 16% 9% 2% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

Negative 19% ** 23% 26% 21% 16% 22% 11% 27% 18% 24% 18% 7% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

Extremely Negative 47% ** 13% 22% 47% 68% 60% 78% 23% 25% 44% 64% 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

No Opinion 2% ** 3% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Registered Voters 100% 5% 14% 15% 13% 13% 26% 11% 8% 19% 39% 17% 12% 6% 11% 15% 19% 47%


1991 Registered Voters All



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1991 Registered Voters All Region Vote in CA PrimaryMargin of Sampling Error : +/-2.2% Central Greater Inland Bay Are Always Someti 1st Tim

Extremely Positive 6% 7% 6% 7% 5% 10% 3% 3%

Positive 11% 10% 12% 13% 10% 13% 14% 4%

Neutral 15% 18% 16% 10% 15% 15% 17% 11%

Negative 19% 19% 16% 25% 20% 16% 21% 24%

Extremely Negative 47% 46% 48% 43% 48% 46% 42% 57%

No Opinion 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Registered Voters 100% 20% 36% 21% 22% 44% 38% 15%

11 Regardless of who you may vote for, is your opinion of Hillary Clinton ... extremely positive? Positive? Neutral? Negative? Or extremely negative?


Gender Age


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Extremely Positive 13% ** 3% 3% 5% 12% 16% 48% 24% 8% 12% 11% 23% 13% 5% 8% 9% 19%

Positive 27% ** 11% 13% 25% 37% 45% 32% 7% 19% 30% 33% 41% 20% 22% 17% 20% 36%

Neutral 24% ** 22% 23% 36% 26% 24% 11% 13% 12% 30% 29% 21% 14% 17% 33% 30% 21%

Negative 15% ** 21% 21% 16% 20% 11% 7% 14% 18% 14% 21% 7% 5% 13% 19% 20% 15%

Extremely Negative 18% ** 42% 38% 12% 5% 3% 1% 39% 43% 14% 4% 3% 48% 43% 22% 20% 7%

No Opinion 2% ** 2% 0% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






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Extremely Positive 13% 13% 17% 13% 8% 19% 9% 12%

Positive 27% 26% 22% 31% 33% 29% 29% 23%

Neutral 24% 20% 20% 19% 37% 18% 28% 31%

Negative 15% 14% 18% 20% 8% 14% 13% 20%

Extremely Negative 18% 25% 22% 16% 9% 19% 19% 15%

No Opinion 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


12Regardless of who you may vote for, if there were a major terrorist attack on United States soil today, which of these 5 candidates for President would you want sitting in the Oval office?Hillary Clinton? Ted Cruz? John Kasich? Bernie Sanders? Or Donald Trump?


Gender Age


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Clinton 37% ** 12% 16% 25% 45% 59% 67% 25% 25% 38% 44% 52% 10% 18% 26% 31% 52%

Cruz 9% ** 21% 20% 5% 2% 2% 3% 26% 24% 5% 2% 1% 8% 17% 9% 14% 6%

Kasich 5% ** 6% 13% 4% 5% 2% 0% 1% 7% 6% 3% 1% 4% 5% 7% 6% 4%

Sanders 21% ** 7% 5% 33% 39% 24% 24% 11% 5% 21% 36% 30% 6% 3% 5% 25% 31%

Trump 15% ** 37% 33% 14% 2% 2% 1% 30% 28% 15% 7% 0% 72% 55% 25% 3% 0%

Not Sure 12% ** 17% 13% 20% 7% 11% 5% 7% 11% 14% 9% 15% 0% 3% 29% 21% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






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Clinton 37% 27% 37% 39% 46% 40% 39% 31%

Cruz 9% 6% 12% 13% 4% 10% 11% 3%

Kasich 5% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 3%

Sanders 21% 24% 21% 19% 21% 19% 14% 43%

Trump 15% 21% 16% 14% 11% 18% 14% 12%

Not Sure 12% 15% 10% 12% 14% 9% 16% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

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home (landline) telephone are interviewed by phone, sometimes using live interviewers, other times using the recorded voice of a professional announcer . The youngest male is requested on

approximately 30% of calls to home phones, the youngest adult is requested on approximately 70% of calls. This method of intra-household selection reduces the potential for age and gender

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california poll - survey usa march april 2016

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