cadila healthcare rating: buy a healthy optioncontent.indiainfoline.com/wc/research/research... ·...
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Sector: Pharmaceuticals
Sector view: Positive
Sensex: 29,006
52 Week h/l (Rs): 1,760 / 805
Market cap (Rscr) : 33,637
6m Avg vol (‘000Nos): 63
Bloomberg code: CDH IB
BSE code: 532321
NSE code: CADILAHC
FV (Rs): 5
Price as on January 22, 2015
Company rating grid
Low High
1 2 3 4 5
Earnings Growth
Cash Flow
B/S Strength
Valuation appeal
Risk
Share price trend
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Jan‐14 Jul‐14 Jan‐15
Cadila Sensex
Share holding pattern % Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14
Promoters 74.8 74.8 74.8
Insti 14.2 14.5 14.6
Others 11.0 10.7 10.6
Rating: BUYTarget: Rs1,920
CMP: Rs1,642
Upside: 16.9%
Company Report
Research Analyst: Bhavesh Gandhi
Cadila Healthcare
This report is published by IIFL ‘India Private Clients’ research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets.
January 23, 2015
Initiating Coverage
A healthy option
Cadila Healthcare is poised to accelerate earnings with ~30% EPS cagr over FY15‐17E driven by robust traction in US generics, revival of domestic growth and margin expansion from c19.2% in H1 FY15 to ~22% in FY17. US revenues would ramp up to ~28.5% cagr on the back of expected sizable launches from mesalamine portfolio (Asacol HD, Lialda), transdermals and chronic therapies (Prevacid, Abilify). Domestic business is set to revive with 13.7% formulations growth over next two years as the dual impact of NLEM and discontinued Boehringer JV sales wears off from Q4 onwards. Slew of product launches in US and domestic momentum would translate in to 17.4% revenue cagr accompanied by ~300bps margin expansion with US responsible for most of the OPM delta. Stock trades at 18x FY17 earnings and given that profitability metrics and earnings growth are comparable to larger domestic peers, we believe stock can rerate further; initiate coverage with BUY and 9‐12mth target of Rs1,920 based on 21x FY17E earnings. Delay in approvals for US launches and tepid domestic growth would be the key risks to our margin/earnings forecasts and bullish reco.
Important US launches lined up; to drive ~17% revenue cagr Cadila owns a high quality ANDA pipeline for which we build in eventual launches spread over next 2‐3 years. Sizable pending products include Asacol HD for which it has settled with Actavis and can launch by November 2015 subject to US FDA approval; notably Asacol HD and Delzicol had combined 9‐mth sales of US$419mn till September 2014. Domestic growth likely to revive from FY16 onwards while consumer, animal healthcare and Rest of World (ROW) pharma business would chug along at steady run rate.
~30% earnings cagr to support further rerating; initiate with BUY Uptick in US business is the key bulwark of our ~30% earnings cagr over FY15‐17 as we factor in approvals for several important ANDAs. Domestic growth would return to close to mid teens growth for next two years. Stock trades at 18x FY17 earnings, at a discount to larger peers; expect the valuation gap to narrow and initiate with BUY based on 21x FY17E earnings; delay in US approvals and lackluster domestic market are key risks.
Financial summary Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Revenues 72,240 84,918 99,176 117,005
yoy growth (%) 13.6 17.6 16.8 18.0
Operating profit 12,001 16,375 20,546 25,999
OPM (%) 16.6 19.3 20.7 22.2
Reported PAT 8,036 10,982 14,278 18,665
yoy growth (%) 23.0 36.7 30.0 30.7
EPS (Rs) 39.2 53.6 69.7 91.1
P/E (x) 41.9 30.6 23.6 18.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 11.4 8.8 6.6
Debt/Equity (x) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
ROE (%) 25.9 29.2 29.9 30.7
ROCE (%) 16.9 20.6 22.5 24.3 Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
2
Healthy pipeline to drive US revenue momentum Cadila’s US business posted 18.6% US$ revenue cagr over FY12‐14 and we expect a significant step up in US business on the back of several sizable launches (discussed in table below). Focus would be on launching complex and niche products in oral solids, injectables, nasals, topical and transdermals to strengthen its improving position (8th amongst generic companies in US vs 10th in previous year). It owns a robust ANDA pipeline with ~250 ANDAs filed so far and approvals for >90 products; it expects 10‐15 product approvals and about 40 filings in the current fiscal. Between FY11‐14, Cadila had launched just over 30 products in US market including that from Nesher, a controlled substance manufacturer it had acquired in FY12. Company’s base business in US has taken the impact of price erosion as well as consolidation of distribution channel and expects growth on current level helped by launch of new products. We factor in accelerated 28.6% US revenue cagr over FY15‐17E, as compared to ~19% over FY12‐14 on the back of expected approvals for several high potential generics.
Cadila owns a robust ANDA pipeline in US and would retain focus on complex and niche products in oral solids and other dosages which would drive 28.5% revenue cagr over FY15‐17E
Asacol HD has large potential given that 9m sales till September 2014 for Asacol HD + Delzicol sales for Actavis were US$418mn
US business ramp up over next 2‐3 years Trend in quarterly ANDA filings
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900
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
US$ mn
28.5% CAGR
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35
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15
#
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Key pending US ANDAs and status
Product Therapy/Indication Launch time line Comments
Prevacid ODT
Stomach and intestinal ulcers FY16
As per mgmt commentary, after launch probably the only generic in the market; launch likely only after the appeal to the favourable verdict received by Cadila is over. Co has already received complete response letter
Sirolimus (1mg) Immunosuppressant
Awaiting final approval Received tentative approval; awaiting final approval
Abilify Mental disorders/ anti‐depressant
Awaiting approval Limited competition product with sizable market
Asacol HD Ulcerative colitis Awaiting approval
Cadila settled with innovator; Actavis to grant exclusive license to market generic Asacol HD following approval by FDA from November 15, 2015; Cadila can launch authorized generic version in case of no approval by July 1, 2016
Lialda Ulcerative colitis Unknown Locked in litigation with innovator (Shire); Shire Lialda sales of US$529mn in 2013 and market share of 28%; Cadila has FTF status
Pentasa Ulcerative colitis Awaiting approval Shire 2013 sales of US$281mn with 14% market share
Source: US FDA, Cadila, Shire, Actavis, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
3
Recent FDA approvals in desirable therapeutic areas Recent approvals from US FDA have been in the areas of lifestyle and chronic therapies which bode well from a growth and margin perspective; albeit we note that one year old launches like Cymbalta is a crowded market with more than 10 players and has seen material price erosion, based on earnings commentary from other domestic peers. Company indicated that it does not specifically target any set therapeutic areas but would look for opportunities across the board. Recent approvals from US FDA Recent US final/tentative approvals US sales (IMS, US$ mn) Therapy
Glipizide Extended Release (ER) tablets# 90 Anti‐diabetes
Telmisartan 233 Anti‐hypertensive
Acylcovir 56 Anti‐viral
Potassium Citrate ER tablets 132 Kidney stones
Clonidine Hydrochloride injection ‐ Pain management
Sirolimus* (0.5mg) 204 Immunosuppressants
Duloxetine (Cymbalta) 5,500 Anti‐depressant Source: Company, India Infoline Research *180‐day marketing exclusivity, #tentative approval
High potential transdermals pipeline Cadila has been making transdermal (drug delivery through skin via adhesive patch, ointment) ANDA filings since 2011 and so far has made 6‐7 filings for which approvals are awaited. Company is in the midst of litigation with Mylan for transdermal filings that include early filers like Clonidine (US$180‐200mn) and Estradiol. Transdermals are part of Cadila’s focus towards new technology businesses that also include injectibles, inhalers, creams and ointments which require high upfront investments but have sizable return potential. Company expects approvals to come in from Q2 FY16. R&D spend seen at 6-7% of sales Cadila’s FY14 R&D stood at ~Rs4.6bn with roughly 80% of that on generics; given that company filed 50 ANDAs in the previous year, this translates in to ~US$1.4mn per filing. Since filings include complex generics, transdermals, R&D per filing represents high research productivity brought by lowering of costs. We factor in R&D spending in line with guidance of 6‐7% for FY16/17. R&D spending seen in the range of 6‐7%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
%
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila’s last 12 months FDA approvals have been in the lifestyle and chronic segments Transdermal filings started from FY11 and company expects approval from Q2 FY16 onwards R&D spending seen between 6‐7% of sales for the next two years
Cadila Healthcare
4
India growth to revive in FY16 Cadila enjoys leading positions in key therapeutic areas like cardiovascular, gastro intestinal, women’s healthcare and respiratory segments; notably it climbed up to 4th position in dermatology in the previous fiscal. It has launched >75 new products including line extensions in the domestic market in FY14 of which 19 were first time launches and included launch of Lipaglyn, the first New Chemical Entity (NCE) developed through in‐house R&D. Recent domestic growth has been impacted by NLEM and discontinuance of BI JV products whose effects would fade off from Q4 of current fiscal. For instance, although the headline growth in domestic market was 9% in Q2 FY15, if one excludes the NLEM and BI impact, growth would have been much better at 14%. Hence we model in 13.7% cagr for domestic formulations over FY15‐17E.
Average 20 product launches/qtr in domestic market
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5
10
15
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25
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35
Q1 FY13
Q2 FY13
Q3 FY13
Q4 FY13
Q1 FY14
Q2 FY14
Q3 FY14
Q4 FY14
Q1 FY15
Q2 FY15
#
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila enjoys strong leadership positions in key therapy areas like CVS, respiratory, female healthcare, dermaceutical and GI
Branded formulations revenue breakup (%) Domestic revenues to revive from next fiscal
16.9
14.5
14.5
11.4
7.9
7.3
3.5
2.8
2.5
7.0
11.7 Cardio vascular
Anti infective
Gastrointestinal
Respiratory
Dermatology
Female Healthcare
Biological
Neutraceutical
Neurological
Pain Management
Others
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
% yoy
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
5
Launched first biosimilar of Adalimumab in domestic market In December 2014, Cadila launched ‘Exemptia’ the biosimilar version of ‘Adalimumab’ (branded version ‘Humira’ is world’s top selling drug) for treatment of auto immune disorders like rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis. According to media reports (Reuters December 09, 2014), Cadila would launch the drug at one fifth price of Humira in US and expects ~Rs1‐2bn in sales (~3‐6% of FY15 India formulations sales). It would look to launch the biosimilar in emerging markets followed by Europe and lastly US though understandably this would be a long drawn process. Globally Humira’s patent expires in December 2016/April 2018 in US/Europe. Exemptia is part of Cadila’s robust pipeline which includes 17 biosimilars and three novel biologics. Within the novel biologics space, company completed phase I clinical trials in India for both PEG EPO (for anemia treatment due to chronic kidney disease) and Rabimabs (for Rabies).
Source: Amgen, Bayer Pharma, India Infoline Research
Margins improvement likely in the near term Cadila expects margin to improve to 21% in FY16 from 19.2% in H1 FY15. Although we have factored in slightly lower estimate for next fiscal, our view is if US approvals pick up pace, margins would continue to climb their upward trajectory and comfortably beat our FY17 estimate. We have assumed R&D cost between 6‐7% in our OPM calculations in line with company guidance.
Exemptia is the first biosimilar of best selling drug Humira for RA; Cadila expects sales of Rs1bn in five years even as it is too early to gauge the drug potential in domestic market Margin expansion can exceed our forecast if approvals gain further traction in US business
What are biologics and biosimilars? Biologics (or biopharmaceuticals) are a class of drugs based on proteins that have a therapeutic effect. These large protein molecules are, in essence, copies or optimized versions of endogenous human proteins. Biologic medicines include therapeutic proteins, DNA vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and fusion proteins and are often 200 to 1,000 times the size of a small molecule drug (i.e. traditional chemically manufactured active substance‐based drugs which still form over 90% of the pharma market) and are far more complex structurally. Unlike generic medicines where the active ingredients are identical to that in an innovator drug, biosimilars are similar to but not identical copies of the originator biologic.
Margins on an consistent uptrend Movement in key cost components
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25.0
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FY17E
OPM EBIT margin%
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25.0
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FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Total RM cost Staff cost
R&D Other expenditure% of sales
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
6
Zydus Wellness: consumer care business Zydus Wellness owns three established brands ‘Sugar Free’, a low calorie sugar substitute, ‘EverYuth’, a range of skincare products and ‘Nutralite’, a cholesterol free table spread. Sugar Free has near monopoly in the low calorie sugar substitute market with a share of >93%. Skincare saw a slowdown in the previous fiscal primarily due to reduced discretionary spending on personal care products on the back of high inflation. This impacted all the three categories of flagship EverYuth brand viz. face wash, scrub and peel‐off. Moreover, skincare especially face wash is a crowded market with strong competitive intensity which means near term growth is likely to be challenging. Its third key consumer product, Nutralite has maintained its leadership position in the margarine category despite strong regional competition which would receive futher boost with the launch of a lower priced variant of Nutralite called ‘Nutralite Yummy’ in North India. Company mainly caters to institutional business like restaurants. Wellness business posted 11.7% revenue cagr over FY12‐14 though FY14 PAT declined 1% on the back of pressure on discretionary consumer spending. Cadila has rationalized its sales and distribution to make it in line with that of other FMCG players; we build in steady 5% revenue cagr for consumer business over FY15‐17E.
Zydus Wellness: key brands snapshot
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Zydus Wellness is the consumer business of Cadila and its Sugar Free brand has a near monopoly share of the low calorie sugar substitute market
Zydus Wellness: steady revenue growth FY14 PAT impacted by lower discretionary spending
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Rs mn
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Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
7
Mixed outlook for Europe; Brazil lackluster from lack of approvals After US and India, Europe and emerging markets are the other two key contributors to Cadila’s generic growth. Within Europe, our interaction with the company suggests focus would remain on France and Spain. In France, company had to bear the impact of increase in discount on generics from 17% to 40%. To counter this, company has rationalized its’ distribution so as to protect profitability though revenues might be under pressure. Spanish growth has been in line with the market in FY14. The target markets of France Spain have combined size of ~US$6.5bn of which Zydus share with FY14 revenues of Rs3.9bn stands at ~1%. More importantly, company’s growth has been faster at 5.5% in FY14 compared to 2‐3% for the relevant markets. In Brazil, Cadila highlighted lack of product approvals as the biggest challenge that has hindered growth; Q2 FY15 saw growth of just 1‐2% for its branded and generics businesses. Indeed generics saw ~6% volume growth but price erosions led to overall muted topline increase during the quarter. As and when approvals come in, company expects double digit growth for the generics division. In our forecasts, we conservatively factor in no new product approvals for the Brazilian business and muted revenue growth for the three geographies.
API revenues to maintain steady growth
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Rs mn
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Brazil business has been impacted by lack of new product approvals while in Europe Cadila has rationalized distribution to offset the impact of higher discounting
Europe: muted revenue growth Brazil : assumed stagnant revenues on lack of approvals
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1,000
2,000
3,000
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FY12
FY13
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FY16E
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Rs mn
2,250
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FY12
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Rs mn
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
8
JVs for oncology, APIs and formulations Zydus Takeda Healthcare: Zydus Takeda Healthcare (formerly Zydus Nycomed Healthcare) is a 50:50 JV between the Cadila and Japanese pharma major Takeda Pharmaceuticals. It manufactures a range of generic APIs catering to several therapeutic categories and exports exclusively to the JV partner for its generic portfolio. APIs manufactured include Pantoprazole and its key inputs, which is the flagship product of the JV.
Zydus Hospira Oncology: Zydus Hospira Oncology is also a 50:50 contract manufacturing JV with Hospira of US and markets oncology injectable products in respective JV partner markets.
Bayer Zydus Pharma: Bayer Zydus Pharma is a three year old JV with Bayer Schering Pharma of Germany and markets finished formulations in the domestic market. It has a strong portfolio in women’s healthcare, metabolic disorders, diagnostic imaging, cardiovascular, anti‐diabetic treatments and oncology.
Zydus income share of JV with Hospira Zydus income share of JV with Bayer
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500
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FY11
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FY14
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Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
9
A portfolio of biosimilars under several stages of development Cadila owns a promising portfolio of biosimilars which are under various stages of development. It has launched seven biosimilars in the domestic market and indicated that biosimilars would be initially launched in emerging markets and EU followed by US. Company has initiated phase III clinical trials for one of the monoclonal antibodies (MABs) and also received regulatory approval to conduct phase III trials for another MAB. In addition to 17 biosimilars, Cadila also in the process of developing three novel biologics of which it has completed phase I trials in India for PEG‐EPO (for treatment of anemia in chronic kidney diseases) and Rabimabs (for Rabies).
Cadila has a portfolio of 17 biosimilars and 3 novel biologics under development; its launch of Adalimumab biosimilar in domestic market gives us confidence on biosimilar capabilities
Biosimilar program at various stages of development
Product Indication Cloning Process Devp
Pre clinical Devp
Regulatory permissions
Clinical Devp
Mktg. authorization
G‐CSF Oncology
Launched in India
Peg G‐CSF Oncology
Interferon α‐2b Infectious diseases
Peg Interferon α‐2b Infectious diseases
Erythropoietin Oncology/Nephrology
Teriparatide Osteoporosis
Interferon β 1b Multiple Sclerosis
Prod 1 Nephrology
Prod 2 Rheumatoid Arthritis
MAB 1 Oncology/RA
MAB 2 Inflammation
MAB 3 Oncology
MAB 4 Oncology
Prod 3 AMI
Prod 4 Fertility
Prod 5 Fertility
Prod 6 Fertility
MAB 5 Rabies
PEG‐EPO Nephrology
Prod 7 Oncology Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
10
NCE pipeline: focus on high growth lifestyle therapies Cadila is working on several new chemical entities (NCE) in high growth chronic therapeutic areas like cardio‐metabolic, inflammation, pain and oncology. In September 2013, company launched Lipaglyn (Saroglitazar), its first NCE for treatment of Diabetic Dyslipidemia (condition of abnormal amount of lipids in blood) and Hypertriglycedemia (high triglycerides levels in blood). Lipaglyn would initially take market share from Fenofibrate. It has also initiated phase III trials for exploring usage of Lipaglyn to treat Lipodystrophy as well as NASH (liver disease caused by obesity, diabetes and lipid disorders). The latter has, as per company commentary, currently no approved drugs and patients often require liver transplants to survive, which implies sizable demand pool for the under trial drug. Another molecule named ZYDPLA 1 (a DPP IV inhibitor) is currently in phase I trials in US for treatment of type 2 diabetes; company estimates sales of DPP IV inhibitors would peak at US$14bn by 2022. Above novel drugs would have longer gestation period but we remain positive on demand potential and growth rates for respective therapeutic segments.
Cadila focuses on new drug discovery in high growth lifestyle therapeutic areas like cardio‐metabolic, inflammation, pain and oncology giving large demand headroom for potential successes
NCE pipeline: Anti‐diabetes, lipids dominate
Product Target Indication Drug
discovery Lead
optimization Pre‐clinical
development IND Phase
I Phase
II Phase
III NDA
Saro‐glitazar
PPAR‐alpha, gamma (regulates glucose and lipid metabolisms)
Dyslipidemia (abnormal amt of lipids in blood) First glitazar to be approved globally; launched in India as "Lipaglyn"
Saro‐glitazar
PPAR‐alpha, gamma
Lipodystrophy (selective loss of body fat)
Saro‐glitazar
PPAR‐alpha, gamma
Non‐alcoholic Steatohepatitis (liver disease)
ZYH7 PPAR‐alpha Dyslipidemia
ZYG19 GPR 119 Agonist Diabetes
ZYDPLA1 DPP‐IV inhibitor Diabetes
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
11
Forecast 17.4% revenue and ~30% EPS cagr over FY15-17E Cadila’s domestic business is likely to shed BI JV and NLEM impact from current quarter; hence we build in formulations cagr of ~13.7% over FY15‐17E. US business is expected to be the key engine of growth with 28.5% revenue cagr over the same period on the back of sizable product launches like Prevacid, Abilify and Asacol HD, subject to FDA approvals. We note that pick up in approval rates is the key to faster US growth from current base. In Europe, France has been impacted by rise in discount from 17% to 40% which has led to rationalization of distribution network leading to lower revenues but better profitability; accordingly we factor in subdued topline for Europe. Brazil has been plagued by lack of approvals and conservatively we build in no pickup in growth; company has mentioned about double digit growth rates once approvals trickle in. Overall we model in 17.4% revenue and 30.4% EPS cagr over FY15‐17E accompanied by ~300bps margin expansion. Revenue forecast FY15‐17E
Segment (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15‐17EE CAGR
Domestic formulations 23,232 24,644 26,246 29,789 33,960 13.7
US formulations 15,969 22,660 27,889 35,698 46,051 28.5
Emerging markets (Asia Pacific + Africa)
3,134 3,592 4,095 4,668 5,322 14.0
ROW (Europe + Brazil + Mexico) 6,081 6,364 6,449 6,561 6,677 1.7
Zydus Wellness 4,100 4,296 4,511 4,736 4,973 5.0
Animal Health 2,370 2,754 3,098 3,486 3,921 12.5
APIs 3,099 3,497 3,882 4,309 4,783 13.7 Source: Company, India Infoline Research
US to grow at compounded 28.5% over next two years on the back of key product launches and a robust pipeline; overall revenue cagr seen at 17.4%
FY17E RoCE compares well vis‐à‐vis peers… …accompanied by amongst fastest earnings cagr
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Cadila
Sun
Pharma
Lupin
Dr Reddys
Cipla
Torrent
Pharma
%
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Cadila
Sun
Pharma
Lupin
Dr Reddys
Cipla
Torrent
Pharma
% cagr FY15‐17E
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Domestic growth to revive from FY16 as BI JV and NLEM impact wears off
US growth to sustain on new launches and base business momentum; expect approvals to gain traction
France revenues lower on higher discounts and distribution rationalization; Brazil growth hindered by lack of approvals
Cadila Healthcare
12
High potential US pipeline, domestic growth to drive robust earnings; Initiate with BUY Cadila owns a robust US pipeline and several high potential products await FDA approval. For instance, Asacol HD would be the only generic equivalent in the market and company has some protection provision in case Actavis switches over to Delzicol as and when Asacol receives approval. The two drugs cumulatively fetched US$418mn for Actavis in first nine months of 2014 as per latest filings. Lialda, part of the same mesalamine portfolio and another pending approval, had a 28% market share in US with sales of US$529mn in 2013 for which Cadila enjoys first to file status. We also remain encouraged by a robust transdermal pipeline starting with Clonidine (innovator sales US$180‐200m) and Estradiol. Domestic growth in FY16 would revive as company emerges from twin impact of discontinuation of BI JV sales and NLEM impact seen in current fiscal. A 28.5% US cagr would drive margin expansion from c19%% in H1 FY15 to 22.2% in FY17. Cadila trades at a discount to other larger domestic peers and although some differential is justified, we believe the gap can narrow further given the high quality and pace of earnings likely over next 2‐3 years. We value the stock on 21x FY17 EPS and arrive at a 9‐12mth target of Rs1,920, implying 17% upside. Key risks to our reco include insufficient approvals in US and lackluster growth in domestic formulations. 1‐yr fwd PE bands: expect valuations to sustain
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Apr‐07
Oct‐07
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Px 6.6 12.5 18.5 24.4 30.3 Rs
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cadila owns high quality US pipeline with several key products awaiting FDA approvals Stock trades discount to other larger peers and we believe headroom exists for valuation to narrow based on Cadila’s robust earnings profile Initiate with BUY based on 21x FY17E earnings with target of Rs1,920
Valuation snapshot PE
Company Price Target Reco Upside/Downside
(%) FY16E FY17E
FY17E RoCE
Cadila Healthcare 1,642 1,920 BUY 16.9 23.6 18.0 24.4
Lupin 1,503 1,750 BUY 16.4 25.7 21.7 36.7
Sun Pharma 918 930 Accumulate 1.3 25.7 22.1 27.1
Dr Reddys 3,361 3,900 BUY 16.0 20.9 17.8 18.9
Cipla 654 675 Accumulate 3.2 29.5 19.9 18.9
Torrent Pharma 1,140 1,320 BUY 15.8 21.3 17.2 25.9 Source: BSE, Companies, India Infoline Research
Cadila Healthcare
13
Financials Income statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Revenue 72,240 84,918 99,176 117,005
Operating profit 12,001 16,375 20,546 25,999
Depreciation (2,012) (2,364) (2,684) (3,004)
Interest expense (1,181) (1,240) (1,240) (1,240)
Other income 507 532 559 587
PBT 9,315 13,303 17,181 22,342
Taxes (1,060) (1,996) (2,577) (3,351)
Adj. profit 8,255 11,308 14,604 18,991
Assoc. share/MI (219) (326) (326) (326)
Net profit 8,036 10,982 14,278 18,665
Balance sheet Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Equity capital 1,024 1,024 1,024 1,024
Reserves 33,366 42,072 53,474 68,305
Net worth 34,390 43,096 54,498 69,329
Minority interest 1,443 1,443 1,443 1,443
Debt 27,552 27,552 27,552 27,552
Def.tax lia 961 961 961 961
Total liabilities 64,346 73,052 84,454 99,285
Intangibles 9,662 9,550 9,550 9,550
Fixed assets 30,491 32,642 34,556 36,071
Investments 222 222 222 222
Net working cap 23,971 30,638 40,126 53,442
Inventories 13,675 16,075 18,774 22,149
Sundry debtors 11,337 13,327 15,564 18,362
Cash 5,488 9,007 14,863 23,638
Other curr assets 8,990 10,615 12,397 14,626
Sundry creditors (9,108) (10,706) (12,504) (14,752)
Other current lia (6,411) (7,679) (8,969) (10,581)
Total assets 64,346 73,052 84,454 99,285
Cash flow statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
PBT 9,315 13,303 17,181 22,342
Depreciation 2,012 2,364 2,684 3,004
Def.tax lia (44) ‐ ‐ ‐
Tax paid (1,060) (1,996) (2,577) (3,351)
Working capital ∆ (854) (3,148) (3,632) (4,541)
Other op.items (219) (326) (326) (326)
Operating CF 9,150 10,198 13,330 17,127
Capital exp (4,553) (4,403) (4,599) (4,519)
Free cash flow 4,597 5,796 8,731 12,608
Equity raised (975) ‐ ‐ ‐
MI 250 ‐ ‐ ‐
Investments (10) ‐ ‐ ‐
Debt fin/disp (2,096) ‐ ‐ ‐
Dividends (2,116) (2,276) (2,875) (3,834)
Net ∆ in cash (350) 3,519 5,856 8,775
Key ratios Y/e 31 Mar FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Growth matrix (%)
Revenue growth 13.6 17.6 16.8 18.0
Op profit growth 6.7 36.4 25.5 26.5
EBIT growth 7.4 38.6 26.7 28.0
Net profit growth 23.0 36.7 30.0 30.7
Profitability ratios (%)
OPM 16.6 19.3 20.7 22.2
EBIT margin 14.5 17.1 18.6 20.2
Net profit margin 11.4 13.3 14.7 16.2
RoCE 16.7 21.2 23.4 25.7
RoNW 25.9 29.2 29.9 30.7
RoA 12.3 14.9 16.4 18.0
Per share ratios
EPS 39.2 53.6 69.7 91.1
Dividend per share 9.0 9.5 12.0 16.0
Cash EPS 50.1 66.8 84.4 107.4
Book value per share 167.9 210.4 266.1 338.5
Valuation ratios (x)
P/E 41.9 30.6 23.6 18.0
P/BV 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.9
M Cap/Sales 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.9
EV/EBIDTA 29.9 21.7 17.0 13.1
Payout (%)
Tax payout 11.4 15.0 15.0 15.0
Dividend payout 22.9 20.7 20.1 20.5
Liquidity ratios
Debtor days 57 57 57 57
Inventory days 69 69 69 69
Creditor days 46 46 46 46
Leverage ratios
Interest coverage 8.9 11.7 14.9 19.0
Net debt / equity 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Net debt / op. profit 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2
Du‐Pont Analysis Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Tax burden (x) 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.85
Interest burden (x) 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95
EBIT margin (x) 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.20
Asset turnover (x) 1.08 1.12 1.11 1.11
Financial leverage (x) 2.10 1.96 1.83 1.71
RoE (%) 25.9 29.2 29.9 30.7
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‘Best Broker of the Year’ – by Zee Business for contribution to brokingNirmal Jain, Chairman, IIFL, received the award for The Best Broker of the Year (for contribution to broking in India) at India's Best Market Analyst Awards 2014 organised by the Zee Business in Mumbai. The award was presented by the guest of Honour Amit Shah, president of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Piyush Goel, Minister of state with independent charge for power, coal new and renewable energy.
'Best Equity Broker of the Year' – Bloomberg UTV, 2011IIFL was awarded the 'Best Equity Broker of the Year' at the recently held Bloomberg UTV Financial Leadership Award, 2011. The award presented by the Hon'ble Finance Minister of India, Shri Pranab Mukherjee. The Bloomberg UTV Financial Leadership Awards acknowledge the extraordinary contribution of India's financial leaders and visionaries from January 2010 to January 2011.
'Best Broker in India' – Finance Asia, 2011IIFL has been awarded the 'Best Broker in India' by Finance Asia. The award is the result of Finance Asia's annual quest for the best financial services firms across Asia, which culminated in the Country Awards 2011
Other awards
2012BEST BROKING HOUSE WITH
GLOBAL PRESENCE
2009, 2012 & 2013BEST MARKET
ANALYSTBEST BROKERAGE,
INDIAMOST IMPROVED,
INDIABEST BROKER,
INDIA
2009FASTEST GROWING
LARGE BROKING HOUSE
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:
Buy – Absolute return of over +15%
Accumulate – Absolute return between 0% to +15%
Reduce – Absolute return between 0% to ‐10%
Sell – Absolute return below ‐10%
Call Failure ‐ In case of a Buy report, if the stock falls 20% below the recommended price on a closing basis, unless otherwise specified by the analyst; or, in case of a Sell report, if the stock rises 20% above the recommended price on a closing basis, unless otherwise specified by the analyst
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