business forecast - university of arkansas · past performance is not necessarily indicative of...

Business ForecastPresented by: Center for Business and Economic Research

Sam M. Walton College of Business

Center for Business & Economic Research

Business ForecastPresented by: Center for Business and Economic Research

AEP SWEPCOFriday, Eldredge and Clark LLP

HoganTaylor LLPJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

McKee FoodsRegions Bank

Regions InsuranceCity of West Memphis

Wright, L indsey & Jennings LLP

Center for Retai l ing Excel lenceGreenwood Gearhart Inc.

Walmart /Sam’s Club

Walton Business Partners

Walton Academic Partners

Walton Presenting Partner

SPONSORS

Walton corporate PartnersDil lard’s

Frost, PLLCReece Moore Pendergraft LLP

Smith Hurst PLCTyson Foods, Inc.

Celebrate ArkansasNorthwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette

Talk Business & Pol i t ics

Walton Media Partners

Business Forecast 2016 Friday, January 29, 2016

11:30 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. Schedule of Events

Welcome and Special Remarks Matt Waller, Interim Dean

Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas

2015 Contest Awards Kathy Deck, Director Center for Business and Economic Research Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas Introduction of Moderator Matt Waller Introduction of Panelists Bill Dillard, III

Vice President Dillards, Inc.

Presentations

Global Forecaster Michael Drury Chief Economist McVean Trading & Investments LLC

Domestic Forecaster Kevin Kliesen

Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Regional Forecaster Kathy Deck

Panel Discussion Bill Dillard, Michael Drury, Kevin Kliesen, Kathy Deck Recognitions and Announcements Matt Waller

Business Forecast 2016 is in association with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Please use Twitter hashtag #BF2016 for this event.

Bill Dillard, III is vice president at Dillard's Inc., based in Little Rock, Arkansas, with responsibilities for the Beauty, Home and Accessories areas of the business. He is entering his 22nd year in the retail/fashion industry. Since joining Dillard's in 1994, he has served in several areas, including area selling management, buying, product and merchandising. He also lived and worked in Hong Kong, working directly with overseas manufacturers as an agent for fashion retailers. He serves on the boards of eStem Public Charter Schools, Arkansans for Education Reform Foundation, St. Vincent Health Systems, Young Life and Search Ministries. Dillard received his bachelor's degree from the University of Texas at Austin. He also received a master's degree in business administration from the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, in 1999. Michael Drury is chief economist for McVean Trading & Investments LLC. He joined the firm in 1992, after serving for five years as senior economist with Allen Sinai at Shearson Lehman Brothers and its successor firms. Drury began his career in New York in 1982 as senior economist at A. Gary Shilling and Co. He assesses global macroeconomic developments to help develop hedging strategies using futures markets in interest rates, currencies and industrial materials. Drury is chairman for the Global Interdependence Center, serves on the executive board of the National Association for Business Economics, is the founder and first president of the Mid-South Association for Business Economics (a chapter of National Association for Business Economics), works as a member of the National Business Economic Issues Council and a non-resident member of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, and is the author of McVean Trading's "Weekly Economic Update.” Drury received his bachelor of science in economics from the Georgia Institute of Technology and did his graduate work at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Kevin Kliesen is a business economist and bank officer in the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He joined the bank in 1988. In his position, he analyzes current U.S. macroeconomic and financial market developments. He also reports on and analyzes economic conditions in the seven states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District, managing the bank's Burgundy Books and developing various materials and information sources for the bank's outreach efforts. Kliesen was instrumental in the development of the St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index and the St. Louis Fed's Price Pressures Measure. From 2006 to 2013, he taught economics, part-time, at Washington University. He is a member of the American Economic Association, the National Association for Business Economics and the Association of Christian Economists. In September 2011, he was recognized as an NABE Fellow, one of the organization's highest honors. Kliesen holds an M.A. in economics from Colorado State University.

Kathy Deck is director for the Center for Business and Economic Research in the Walton College. Her research interests include local economic development, industry market structure and higher education economics. She has managed studies for a variety of clients including: Arvest Bank Group, the Arkansas Economic Development Commission, the Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism and the Northwest Arkansas Council. She also acts as a media resource for analysis of current events and trends. She was named Business Advocate of the Year in 2015 by the Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce, Communicator of the Year in 2009 by the Northwest Arkansas Public Relations Society of America, 40 under 40 by Arkansas Business and the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal and as a Woman of Influence by Arkansas Business. Deck earned a B.A. in economics from the College of William and Mary and an M.S. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

0Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

McVEANTrading & Investments, LLCMcVEAN

Trading & Investments, LLC

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

January 29, 2016

Michael DruryChief Economist

McVean Trading and Investments, LLC

2016 Business Forecast LuncheonFayetteville, AR

2015 GLOBAL GDP $73.6 TRILLION (-3.6% Y/Y)

2015 GLOBAL GDP $73.6 TRILLION (-3.6% Y/Y)


EUROPE$17.5T-10.9%

NAFTA$20T

+2.4%

Japan+SouthKorea+Taiwan

$6.2T-5.9%

Australia+Brazil+ Argentina+Russia+

OPEC$7.9T

-17.7%

China$11.5T+8.0%

Other$10.5T+0.8%

-4.1%

-9.7%

U.S. MAPU.S. MAP


SUNBELT

U.S.; EUROPE; CHINAU.S.; EUROPE; CHINA


SUBURBS RUST BELT SUNBELT

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Jan-49 Jan-55 Jan-61 Jan-67 Jan-73 Jan-79 Jan-85 Jan-91 Jan-97 Jan-03 Jan-09 Jan-15

Q3 2015

REAL GDPCURRENT QTR % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO



RTC CRISIS

NASDAQ BUBBLE

LEHMAN




NIKKEI BUBBLE

ASIAN CRISIS

LEHMAN-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Jan-49 Jan-55 Jan-61 Jan-67 Jan-73 Jan-79 Jan-85 Jan-91 Jan-97 Jan-03 Jan-09 Jan-15

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12

Q3 2015

US TRADE BALANCE AS A % OF GDPUS TRADE BALANCE AS A % OF GDP



160

180

200

220

240

260

280

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

1/1/2000 1/1/2002 1/1/2004 1/1/2006 1/1/2008 1/1/2010 1/1/2012 1/1/2014

S&P HOME PRICE Dec-15

US Household WealthUS Household Wealth

DOMESTIC CORPORATE PROFITS VS CAPITAL INVESTMENTAS A % OF GDP

DOMESTIC CORPORATE PROFITS VS CAPITAL INVESTMENTAS A % OF GDP


10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Mar-75 Mar-79 Mar-83 Mar-87 Mar-91 Mar-95 Mar-99 Mar-03 Mar-07 Mar-11 Mar-15

DOMESTIC CORPORATE PROFITS CAPITAL INVESTMENT Q3 15

POLICY LEVERSPOLICY LEVERS

• 1) Monetary Policy

• 2) Fiscal Policy

• 3) Regulation

• 4) Exchange Rates


MONETARY POLICYMONETARY POLICY


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/1980 1/1/1984 1/1/1988 1/1/1992 1/1/1996 1/1/2000 1/1/2004 1/1/2008 1/1/2012

US OVERNIGHT RATE VS 10YR YIELD

Overnight Rate US 10YR Yield Dec 15

5 YR TREASURY YIELD CHANGE FROM 5 YEARS AGO5 YR TREASURY YIELD CHANGE FROM 5 YEARS AGO


-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

ACTUAL PROJECTION AT CURRENT RATE

FISCAL POLICYFISCAL POLICY


‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan‐78 Jan‐82 Jan‐86 Jan‐90 Jan‐94 Jan‐98 Jan‐02 Jan‐06 Jan‐10 Jan‐14

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT AS A % OF GDP

Q3 2015

REGULATIONREGULATION

• Exclusion of Utility Operations-Related Swaps with Utility Special Entities from De Minimis Threshold for Swaps with Special Entities

• Prohibitions and Restrictions on Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in, and Relationships with, Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds

• Derivatives Clearing Organizations and International Standards

• Protection of Collateral of Counterparties to Uncleared Swaps; Treatment of Securities in a Portfolio Margining Account in a Commodity Broker Bankruptcy

• Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants; Clerical or Ministerial Employees

• Clearing Exemption for Certain Swaps Entered Into by Cooperatives

• Harmonization of Compliance Obligations for Registered Investment Companies Required To Register as Commodity Pool Operators

• Enhanced Risk Management Standards for Systemically Important Derivatives Clearing Organizations

• Interpretive Guidance and Policy Statement Regarding Compliance With Certain Swap Regulations

• Exemptive Order Regarding Compliance With Certain Swap Regulations

• Process for a Designated Contract Market or Swap Execution Facility To Make a Swap Available to Trade, Swap Transaction Compliance and Implementation Schedule, and Trade Execution Requirement Under the Commodity Exchange Act

• Core Principles and Other Requirements for Swap Execution Facilities

• Core Principles and Other Requirements for Swap Execution Facilities; Correction

• Procedures To Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and Block Trades

• Procedures To Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and Block Trades

• Procedures To Establish Appropriate Minimum Block Sizes for Large Notional Off-Facility Swaps and Block Trades; Correction

• Reassignment of Commission Staff Responsibilities and Delegations of Authority

• Delegation of Authority To Disclose Confidential Information to a Contract Market, Registered Futures Association or Self-Regulatory Organization

• Clearing Exemption for Swaps Between Certain Affiliated Entities


• DODD FRANK

EXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE


60

82

104

126

148

170

192

214

236

258

280

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1/1/1980 1/1/1984 1/1/1988 1/1/1992 1/1/1996 1/1/2000 1/1/2004 1/1/2008 1/1/2012

Dollar / Euro Cross vs Dollar / Yen

Dollar_Euro Dollar_Yen Dec 15

AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED VS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGSTHREE MO AVG % CHANGE FROM 3 MO AVG YEAR AGO

AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED VS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGSTHREE MO AVG % CHANGE FROM 3 MO AVG YEAR AGO


1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13

AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (right) Dec-15

RETAIL SALES EX GASOLINE VS DISPOSABLE INCOME3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO

RETAIL SALES EX GASOLINE VS DISPOSABLE INCOME3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO


Nov-15

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%


RETAIL SALES EX GAS DISPOSABLE INCOME

TOTAL RETAIL SALES VS RETAIL SALES EX GASOLINE3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO

TOTAL RETAIL SALES VS RETAIL SALES EX GASOLINE3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO


Nov-15

-12.0%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%


RETAIL SALES EX GAS STATION SALES

US, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA PMIUS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA PMI


-25

-10

5

20

35

50

65

80

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015

CHINA Eurozone US JAPAN (RS)Dec-15

BALANCE SHEETSMONTHLY

BALANCE SHEETSMONTHLY


Dec-15

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Bill

ion

s o

f U

S$

US Europe Japan

EXCHANGE RATEEXCHANGE RATE


0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

0.011

1/1/1986 1/1/1990 1/1/1994 1/1/1998 1/1/2002 1/1/2006 1/1/2010 1/1/2014

Yen / Euro Cross

Dec 15

U.S., EUROPE AND JAPAN GDPU.S., EUROPE AND JAPAN GDP


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15

US Europe JapanQ1 2015

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE STOCK MARKETSHANGHAI COMPOSITE STOCK MARKET


1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

Jan‐16

CHINESE YUAN IN US$CHINESE YUAN IN US$


0.12

0.125

0.13

0.135

0.14

0.145

0.15

0.155

0.16

0.165

0.17

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Jan-15

CHINA NOMINAL GDP GROWTH IN US$CURRENT QUARTER % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO

CHINA NOMINAL GDP GROWTH IN US$CURRENT QUARTER % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15

Q3 15

CORN VS COPPERCORN VS COPPER


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850


Corn CopperDec-15

WTI CRUDE OILWTI CRUDE OIL


20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15Dec-15

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15

REAL GDP (LHS) GDP DEFLATOR (RHS)

CHINA GDP GROWTHCURRENT QUARTER %CH FROM YEAR AGO

CHINA GDP GROWTHCURRENT QUARTER %CH FROM YEAR AGO


Q3 15

CHINESE NOMINAL GDP BY SECTOR 3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGOCHINESE NOMINAL GDP BY SECTOR

3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15

PRIMARY & SECONDARY TERTIARY Q3 2015

CHINA TOTAL AMOUNT OF SOCIAL FINANCING12 MONTH AVERAGE

CHINA TOTAL AMOUNT OF SOCIAL FINANCING12 MONTH AVERAGE


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Nov 15

REAL ESTATE IN CHINAREAL ESTATE IN CHINA

Real Estate Investment in Eastern, Central and Western Regions for January- August

Regions InvestmentShare

% of Investment inGrowth Rate Y/Y (%)

Residential Buildings Residential Buildings

National Total 100.0% 67.3% 1.3 0.7

Eastern 55.6% 67.0% 1.1 1.2

Central 21.6% 70.0% 1.8 1.3Western 22.7% 65.4% 1.1 -1.2


Sales of Commercial Buildings in Eastern, Central and Western Regions for January-November

Regions

Floor Space of Commercial Buildings Sold Sales of Commercial Buildings

Share of Production

Growth Rate Y/Y (%)

Share ofValue Sold

Growth Rate Y/Y (%)

National Total 100.0% 7.4 100.0% 15.6

Eastern 46.6% 9.6 60.2% 21.1

Central 26.9% 7.3 20.1% 10.9

Western 26.3% 3.8 19.8% 5.5

CHINESE EXPORT VS IMPORTS3 MO AVG %CH FROM 3 MO AVG YEAR AGO

CHINESE EXPORT VS IMPORTS3 MO AVG %CH FROM 3 MO AVG YEAR AGO


-33.0%

-16.5%

0.0%

16.5%

33.0%

49.5%

66.0%


EXPORTS IMPORTSNov 15

CHINESE GLOBAL TRADE SURPLUSBILLIONS OF US$ - 3 MONTH AVERAGE

CHINESE GLOBAL TRADE SURPLUSBILLIONS OF US$ - 3 MONTH AVERAGE


-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


Nov-15

The Near-TermOutlook for the U.S. Economy2016 Business Forecast LuncheonCenter for Business & Economic ResearchWalton College, University of ArkansasFayetteville, Arkansas

Kevin L. KliesenBusiness Economist and Research OfficerFederal Reserve Bank of St. LouisJanuary 29, 2016

Not an official document

The views I will express are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.

Disclaimer

• The economy is into the seventh year of expansion.

• The song remains the same . . . Modest growth, low inflation, and an extremely easy monetary policy.

• Job gains remain strong and the unemployment rate is low.

• The FOMC finally moved; policy will probably remain very accommodative for quite a while.

The Big Picture

1. Forecasters have over-predicted real GDP growth and inflation the past few years.

a. This should humble us about our forecasting prowess.

Three Key Themes in the Outlook

Slower real GDP growth reflects slower growth of two key inputs: labor and labor productivity.

5

4.4

3.6

2.8

2.22.5

1.61.2 1.0

2.0 2.01.6

1.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1982-90 1991-2001 2001-07 2009-15

Real GDP Growth

Labor Input

Labor Productivity

Accounting for Real GDP Growth During the Current andPrevious Three Business ExpansionsPercent changes at compounded annual rates

NOTE: Totals may not add because of rounding.SOURCE: Author's calculations based on data from the BEA and BLS.

To boost output growth over the long term requires boosting productivity growth, the most important factor driving living standards.


2. Falling oil prices and a strengthening U.S. dollar.


The fall in oil prices has lowered headline inflation, but not underlying inflation.

7

Once oil prices stabilize, headline inflation should converge to its underlying rate. Well, that’s the expectation!

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan.2012 Sep.2012 May.2013 Jan.2014 Sep.2014 May.2015

Headline PCE FRB Dallas 2% Target

Actual and Underlying Inflation (YOY Changes)12-month percent changes

NOTE: Data through November 2015.

New measures by the St. Louis Fed suggest a high probability of low inflation over the next 12 months.

8

p y

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Jan.2011 Jan.2012 Jan.2013 Jan.2014 Jan.2015 Jan.2016

LT 0% 0% to 1.5% 1.5% to 2.5% GT 2.5%

The St. Louis Fed Inflation Probability Measures: FourPossibilities for Headline PCE Inflation Over the Next 12 MonthsProbability, 1.0 = 100 percent

NOTE: This excludes the deflation probability estimate. Last observation is December 2015.

The Changing Nature of Oil Shocks• Historically, oil price increases have mattered more

than decreases.

• But that appears to be changing.

• Energy consumption per dollar of real GDP has declined by about 40% since 1985.

• The U.S. is now a major oil producer; this has reduced crude oil imports by about 60% since 2011.

Dollar Appreciation and GDP Growth• A stronger dollar can slow the growth of U.S. exports

and lower inflation via lower import prices.

• A dollar appreciation also often coincides with an oil price decline.

• This tends to raise real disposable income and, therefore, real consumption.

• Empirically, these contrasting effects largely cancel out.

The boost to real GDP growth from consumption was larger than the drag from net exports in 2015.

11

g g p

Auto sales boomed in 2015! The contribution from net exports is also affected by U.S. and world growth, as in 2008, when imports plunged.

0.84

-0.67

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Consumption Net Exports

Contributions to Real GDP Growth from Consumption of Durable and Nondurable Goods and from Net ExportsPercentage points of growth

NOTE: Data through 2015


2. Falling oil prices and a strengthening dollar.

3. There is a growth divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors.


• Weaker exports, China’s slowdown, and lower oil prices have taken a toll on the manufacturing sector.

• However, the broader economy continues to expand, as evidenced by continued growth in the (much larger) services sector.

• December job gains were robust, a further indication that the manufacturing slowdown is not widespread.

• Still, Q4 growth could be weaker than Q3.

Diverging Growth—But for How Long?

• Trend-like growth (2% to 2.5%) is the most likely outcome, but risks are evident on either side.

• Job gains should continue to outpace labor force growth, pushing the unemployment rate lower.

• Inflation returns to underlying levels in 2016. Oil prices and the dollar are wildcards.

• But shocks will occur—both good and bad—so monetary policy needs to be nimble.

The Near-Term Outlook

THE ARKANSAS ECONOMY IN 2016:CRUISING ALTITUDE

Kathy Deck, Director

Center for Business and Economic Research

January 29, 2016

$‐

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Per Capita Personal Income

United States Arkansas Northwest ArkansasSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1,080

1,100

1,120

1,140

1,160

1,180

1,200

1,220

1,240

Jan‐07

Jul‐07

Jan‐08

Jul‐08

Jan‐09

Jul‐09

Jan‐10

Jul‐10

Jan‐11

Jul‐11

Jan‐12

Jul‐12

Jan‐13

Jul‐13

Jan‐14

Jul‐14

Jan‐15

Jul‐15

Jan‐16

Jul‐16

Arkansas Non‐Farm Employment Forecast

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2016 CBER Forecast

Thousands

Mining and Logging1%

Construction4%

Manufacturing12%

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

21%

Information1%

Financial Activities4%Professional and

Business Services11%

Education and Health Services15%

Leisure and Hospitality9%

Other Services4%

Government18%

Arkansas Employment by Sector ‐ November 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.2%

‐15.0% ‐12.0% ‐9.0% ‐6.0% ‐3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%

Mining and Logging

Manufacturing


Government

Non‐Farm

Information

Leisure and Hospitality

Financial Activities

Other Services

Education and Health Services

Professional and Business Services

Construction

Change in Arkansas Employment by SectorNovember 2014 ‐ November 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBER Calculations

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted

United States Arkansas Northwest ArkansasSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

‐4.0%

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Labor Force, Year Over Year Percent Change

United States Arkansas Northwest ArkansasSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

Northwest Arkansas Employment Forecast

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2016 CBER Forecast

Thousands

Mining, Logging and Construction

4%

Manufacturing11%


22%

Information1%

Financial Activities3%


20%

Education and Health Services11%

Leisure and Hospitality10%

Other Services3%

Government15%

Northwest Arkansas Employment by Sector ‐ November 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.9%

‐15.0% ‐12.0% ‐9.0% ‐6.0% ‐3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%

Manufacturing

Information



Non‐Farm

Mining, Logging and Construction

Government

Financial Activities

Other Services

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Change in Northwest Arkansas MSA Employment by Sector, November 2014 ‐ November 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBER Calculations

2015 is a Year of Transition Per capita personal income growth means moreamenities and an even better place to live.

Construction is strong, but not leading employmentgrowth—a more sustainable situation than beforethe recession.

The area should expect more out-of-region visitors,given the mix of investments in the leisure andhospitality amenities sector.

One note of caution is that both professional andbusiness services and trade, transportation andutilities are growing more slowly than in the recentpast

business forecast - university of arkansas · past performance is not necessarily indicative of...

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